According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has shown a slight fluctuation trend recently. As of October 10th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 73166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 71366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% month on month and 9.13% year-on-year.
Supply side: Reduced disturbance at the mining end
In July, there was a notice from the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City, Jiangxi Province in the industry. The notice requires eight local lithium mining enterprises to complete the preparation of a verification report on the change of mineral types and reserves before September 30th, and scientifically and reasonably determine the main mineral types for mining. Affected by this news, the spot price of lithium carbonate soared from 60000 to 80000, but the market cooled down rationally and returned to around 70000. Recently, it has been reported that all eight lithium mining companies have submitted their verification reports for changes in mineral types and reserves. The impact of mining on supply has weakened.
Demand side: Energy storage dominates incremental growth, highlighting demand resilience
Energy storage has become the core engine of demand in October, and the delivery cycle of orders from top energy storage battery companies (such as CATL and BYD) has been extended to 45 days. The production rate in September remains above 95%, and the output of positive electrode material factories is expected to continue the month on month upward trend.
The demand for power batteries is steadily improving
The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the market was 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, with a penetration rate of 53.3%. Although the reduction of subsidies in Europe and the United States has slowed down the growth rate of export orders, the demand in the domestic market during peak seasons has supported a steady increase in the installed capacity of power batteries, and demand resilience still exists.
Inventory is still at a high level
As of the end of September, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 136800 tons, including 33500 tons of upstream inventory, 60900 tons of downstream inventory, and 42400 tons of inventory in other links. The suppressive effect of high inventory on prices has not completely subsided, and the supply and demand increment in October may turn into accumulated inventory, restricting the upward space of prices.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the lithium carbonate market in October will be in a balanced state of “improvement in supply and demand margins” and “suppression of high inventory”, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Specific changes in the market still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 9, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5666 yuan/ton. Compared with September 30 (reference price of n-butanol is 5850 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13%. Compared with September 1st (reference price of 6100 yuan/ton for n-butanol), the price has decreased by 184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.10%.
Returning from the National Day holiday, the n-butanol market in Shandong has cooled down and fallen
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the end of the National Day holiday, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China showed a weak downward trend. During the holiday period, the shipment performance of n-butanol was average, and the overall market situation has been adjusted downwards. On the first day after the holiday, the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong continued to move downwards. As of October 9th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 5650-5700 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
Supply side: Increased supply and pressure on shipments
During the National Day holiday, the shipment of n-butanol in Shandong slowed down, and the overall supply in the market increased, but the support provided by the supply side to the market was not satisfactory. After the supply was under pressure, the overall market in Shandong was mainly focused on selling at a discounted price after the holiday, and the focus of market trading was adjusted downwards.
In terms of demand, the transmission of essential procurement is generally average
After the holiday, the downstream demand for n-butanol is generally average, with a focus on first-time purchases. Downstream users mainly digest raw materials from earlier stages, and the support provided by the demand side to the market is limited.
Future forecast
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-butanol market is relatively light, and the mentality of industry players is average. The transmission of supply and demand is relatively slow. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

The domestic epoxy propane market fluctuated upward in September. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% compared to September 1st.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: In September, the price of propylene fluctuated and provided limited support for the cost of epoxy propane, but did not exert significant pressure on the cost of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6598.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In the mid to early period, the market was boosted by the news of Shandong’s release of equipment parking, and the trading atmosphere in the market warmed up; In the later stage, the load reduction of the first phase unit in Shandong and the temporary shutdown of the Dongying unit resulted in tight spot inventory of domestic epoxy propane production enterprises. The supporting role of the supply side in the market has been strengthened, and the price of epoxy propane continues to rise.
On the demand side: In mid September, downstream demand for replenishing inventory was concentrated, and the new transaction volume of polyether factories increased significantly, which significantly increased the enthusiasm for purchasing epoxy propane. It is expected that the price trend of epoxy propane will be strong in the later stage.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the supply of epoxy propane in the market is tight, with limited support from raw material prices, and downstream market demand is still acceptable. It is expected that the focus of the epoxy propane market will shift upwards in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market saw a slight increase in September 2025, with an average price of 16780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a monthly increase of 0.42%.
On September 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 102.55, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 37.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of September, the consumption of lead-acid batteries in China still did not show significant improvement, and the performance of the traditional peak consumption season did not meet expectations, resulting in the continuous accumulation of domestic lead ingot inventory. At the same time, the loss situation of domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises continues, and the operating rate of enterprises is at a relatively low level. In the mid month stage, the scale of production reduction and shutdown of domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises further expanded. The market generally expects that domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises may have difficulty increasing production in the short term, coupled with the influx of multiple funds into the market, leading to a rapid rise in Shanghai lead prices, which have since maintained a fluctuating trend.
supply side
In September, domestic primary lead smelters that were previously under maintenance gradually resumed production. At the same time, some smelters started winter storage work ahead of schedule, resulting in a significant increase in demand for lead ore. However, the imported mineral market still presents a situation of price but no market, and it is expected that the domestic lead concentrate market will remain in a tight balance in October. In terms of lead containing waste, there has been no significant improvement in the scrap volume in the domestic market recently, and the price of lead containing waste in China is expected to continue to rise but not fall.
Demand side
September and October were supposed to be the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, but this year’s market performance did not meet expectations. Affected by multiple factors such as tariff adjustments and price comparison effects, the export order volume of some lead-acid batteries has significantly declined. At the same time, the lead-acid battery market has shown a trend of “not weak in the off-season and not strong in the peak season” this year, with a relatively stable overall consumption level and a lack of obvious growth momentum. It is worth noting that with the official implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September, some downstream enterprises have reported an increase in new car matching orders. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the potential driving effect of this trend on the lead consumption market.
Prediction of future trends
In the domestic market, the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase, but there is no significant sign of recovery in consumer demand. Based on this market situation, lead prices may face certain downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber fluctuated downward in September. As of September 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% from the beginning of the month.
The crude oil market was affected by both long and short factors, with prices fluctuating widely in September. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.72 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.22 per barrel. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts benefiting the international oil market and the crude oil market. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices.
After a continuous decline in the domestic PTA market in September, the bottom has recovered. As of the end of September, the average market price in East China was 4612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01% from the beginning of the month. Worried about the continued increase in crude oil production, the expected increase in PTA supply, and weak demand, the main reason for the decline was in mid to early September. At the end of the month, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered potential supply risks. Crude oil rebounded, the supply and demand of downstream pre festival stock improved, and PTA prices recovered slightly from low levels. In September, PTA plant maintenance and restart coexisted. Currently, the operating load of the PTA industry is around 77%, and the supply of plants has changed significantly. However, the overall spot supply is still loose, and social inventory has accumulated slightly. There are some equipment maintenance plans in October, but 3 million tons of new equipment will be put into operation as scheduled, further increasing market supply pressure.
At present, we are in the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October”, but downstream yarn factories have not seen the expected significant rebound in demand, mainly for essential purchases. The overall market performance is flat, and the support for upstream raw materials is relatively limited. Terminal orders have moderately rebounded, but the order volume is average and constrained by high inventory levels. Therefore, caution is exercised in raw material procurement, with a focus on small batches. At the end of the month, due to the impact of the pre holiday period, some downstream yarn factories have made up a small amount of inventory, but the sustainability is insufficient.
Business analysts believe that the continuous deployment of new PTA production capacity has intensified market concerns about oversupply, with weak support on the cost side. Downstream enterprises’ inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday has basically ended, and the market lacks clear positive guidance. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will be weak in October.