According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market saw a slight increase in September 2025, with an average price of 16780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a monthly increase of 0.42%.
On September 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 102.55, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 37.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of September, the consumption of lead-acid batteries in China still did not show significant improvement, and the performance of the traditional peak consumption season did not meet expectations, resulting in the continuous accumulation of domestic lead ingot inventory. At the same time, the loss situation of domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises continues, and the operating rate of enterprises is at a relatively low level. In the mid month stage, the scale of production reduction and shutdown of domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises further expanded. The market generally expects that domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises may have difficulty increasing production in the short term, coupled with the influx of multiple funds into the market, leading to a rapid rise in Shanghai lead prices, which have since maintained a fluctuating trend.
supply side
In September, domestic primary lead smelters that were previously under maintenance gradually resumed production. At the same time, some smelters started winter storage work ahead of schedule, resulting in a significant increase in demand for lead ore. However, the imported mineral market still presents a situation of price but no market, and it is expected that the domestic lead concentrate market will remain in a tight balance in October. In terms of lead containing waste, there has been no significant improvement in the scrap volume in the domestic market recently, and the price of lead containing waste in China is expected to continue to rise but not fall.
Demand side
September and October were supposed to be the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, but this year’s market performance did not meet expectations. Affected by multiple factors such as tariff adjustments and price comparison effects, the export order volume of some lead-acid batteries has significantly declined. At the same time, the lead-acid battery market has shown a trend of “not weak in the off-season and not strong in the peak season” this year, with a relatively stable overall consumption level and a lack of obvious growth momentum. It is worth noting that with the official implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September, some downstream enterprises have reported an increase in new car matching orders. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the potential driving effect of this trend on the lead consumption market.
Prediction of future trends
In the domestic market, the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase, but there is no significant sign of recovery in consumer demand. Based on this market situation, lead prices may face certain downward pressure.
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