According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and fell in mid November, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of November 20th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 6446.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.11% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The crude oil market has been affected by both long and short factors this week. On the one hand, OPEC+oil producing countries have increased production in a new round, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply; On the other hand, geopolitical factors have led to a decrease in Russian supply, coupled with the easing of US tariff issues, which has brought positive news to the international crude oil market. The long and short positions within the range are pulling, and oil prices are fluctuating. The previous inventory of propylene has been digested, but recently the supply of goods has tightened, and the company’s sales are not under pressure, so the shipment is controlled. As a result, the spot price of propylene continues to rise. The external market for propane remains strong, with port cargo leading the increase and prices rising. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials still provide sufficient cost support.
Supply side:
In mid November, there was a mutual occurrence of restart and maintenance of domestic PP enterprises. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 79%, with little difference compared to the first ten days. The current weekly average total production is over 800000 tons, and the inventory position is stuck at 900000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot prices has flattened.
In terms of demand:
The results of the China US talks at the beginning of the month did not meet market expectations, which did not strongly boost the mentality of industry players. In addition to the global macroeconomic fatigue, external markets are affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and trade protectionism, dragging end products overseas and constraining downstream enterprise loads. In mid November, although it continued the previous pattern of light buying, the rigid demand of terminal factories had a bottoming effect on prices. However, overall, due to the large supply base of the industry, the momentum of essential demand is difficult to support the spot price of PP. The driving force of Double 11 e-commerce festival consumption within the interval has limited improvement in market trading atmosphere, and the positive factors have been smoothed out by many negative factors, maintaining weak and stable support on the demand side.
Market outlook
In mid November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and fell. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is fluctuating, and the overall support for PP is still acceptable. The improvement in consumption is limited, and the industry load remains high and flat. Under the large base production capacity, the loose supply pattern remains unchanged, and there is a lack of motivation to further digest inventory. It is expected that the PP market may enter a stalemate adjustment market
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