1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9884 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 24), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9800 yuan / ton (the average price was 9559 yuan / ton). The average price was 3.29% lower than last week and 20.84% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil weakened, pure benzene in the external market continued to decline, and the support of external news was weak. Domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and supply increases. However, the downstream products suffered a loss in profits, and some units shut down with reduced economy, weakening demand. This week, pure benzene continued to decline, the price difference between SINOPEC pure benzene and local refining enterprises widened, and the prices of Sinopec plants in Shandong and Hebei fell significantly affected by the northern market.

This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9800 yuan / ton (the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced to 9450 yuan / ton).

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market this week continued a broad downward trend. On Thursday (June 23), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1237 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $107 / ton, or 7.96%; The reference import price in East China was US $1245 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $95 / ton, or 7.09%.

In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising this week. On June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 10679 yuan / ton, down 2.03% from last week and up 17.35% from the same period last year.

Aniline: this week, aniline is stable and small. On June 24, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.21% over last week and an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the purchasing sentiment in the downstream is general, most of them are wait-and-see, and it is expected that the styrene market will fall in the short term.

There is still a possibility of downward movement in the external market. The domestic pure benzene supply increases, the downstream demand weakens, and the pure benzene market sentiment is empty, so there is still a possibility of downward movement. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic butadiene production enterprises was 11224 yuan / ton on June 23, up 10.90% month on month and 27.15% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 11250 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 11350 yuan / ton. The supply side has been supplemented to a certain extent, the demand has remained relatively weak, the market lacks the ability to continue to move, and the short-term market is dominated by shock consolidation.

On June 22, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap between manufacturers’ quotations. The mainstream price in the on-site negotiation was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the price quotation in Hebei was 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market rose slightly, and the price trend of nitric acid rose. The rising raw material price has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market, but the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the on-site supply of goods has been normal recently, The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable, and it is expected that the price trend will be stable in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some domestic regions are as follows:

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei region, 5200-5300., 0

Henan region, 4500-4600., 0

Shaanxi region, 5000-5200., 0

Yunnan region, 2900-3100., 0

Price trend

On the 21st, the propylene market was recently consolidated and operated. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7900-8000 yuan / ton. On the cost side, the crude oil rebounded after a high decline, which supported propylene fairly well. However, the cost pressure on the downstream, especially polypropylene, remained unabated, the demand was flat, and the start-up was limited. At the same time, other downstream products of propylene performed generally. At the same time, the start-up of propylene in many places was high, and new units were put into operation. The overall market supply exceeded demand. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the propylene market was in a stalemate.

Forecast: under the influence of long and short factors, it is expected that the propylene market will operate in a narrow range in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on June 17, the MTBE price in Shandong was 8787 yuan / ton, up 16.58% month on month and 37.23% year on year. The supply of export goods has increased, and the sales pressure of merchants has increased. The price rises to a high level, and the downstream merchants breed resistance. In addition, the recent increase in spot supply has highlighted the sales pressure of businesses in some regions.