In June, urea was in a state of twists and turns. Could it come back to life in July

1、 Price trend

 

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This month, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong Province rose first, then fell and then rose again: the quotation first rose from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1680.00 yuan / ton on June 13, with an increase of 2.23%, and then fell to 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25, which was 3.37% lower than that on June 13. However, near the end of the month, urea price had a slight rise, and the quotation rose again from 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25 to 1643 on June 30 33 yuan / ton, up 1.23%, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month. On the whole, urea market has ups and downs this month, with an upward trend at the end of the month. The urea commodity index on June 30 was 76.43.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the price of liquid ammonia dropped and then rose. The quotation first fell from 3033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2966.67 yuan / ton on June 11, then rose to 3116.67 yuan / ton on June 21, and finally closed at 3066.67 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of liquid ammonia rose by 33.34 yuan / ton in June, and the price at the end of the month was 6.69% lower than that of the same period last year;

 

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose first and then fell. The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose first and then fell. The quoted price first rose from 2470.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2503.33 yuan / ton on June 11, and then dropped to 2450.00 yuan / ton on June 30. On the whole, the price of liquefied natural gas in June fell by 20 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 27.66% lower than that in the same period last year. Overall, the urea cost support in this month is strong.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

In this month, the quotation of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, which was 5066.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic melamine operating rate was about 55%. The price of melamine was stable, the cost of raw materials increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the production profit decreased.

 

From the supply side, the actual output of urea in June was 4.6512 million tons (daily average of 155000 tons), up 3.02% year-on-year. However, the operating load rate of domestic gas head urea enterprises was 74.79%, with a month on month decrease of 3.90% and a month on month increase of 1.36%.

 

From the perspective of demand: in June, there were some agricultural topdressing phenomena in North China and East China, with a slight increase in agricultural demand and a general enthusiasm for stock preparation; while in terms of industrial demand, the market trading atmosphere was not warm and the follow-up of manufacturers’ new orders was fair, and the demand in other regions was general. After the middle of June, the urea market showed obvious signs of weakening, with an average drop of 70-100 yuan / ton on the 24th. On the 20th-24th, some factories increased their orders for the Dragon Boat Festival, and even fell at the rate of 20-30 yuan / ton per day.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the first ten days of July, the market price of urea may rebound about 30-50 yuan / ton. Urea analysts at the business club believe that after entering July, the continuous rainfall will make the demand of agricultural topdressing in southern China frequent. After the middle of July, the topdressing of corn in Lianghe and other places in Shandong Province began to start, and the compound fertilizer plants began to operate. The industrial demand for low nitrogen and high phosphorus fertilizers began to produce. The demand in July was not pessimistic, and the potential demand remained in the later stage. However, since July, urea enterprises that have been overhauled in the early stage have started operation one after another. It is difficult to be optimistic about the gradually rising operating rate and returning to the daily volume of more than 150000 tons. In addition, the amount of topdressing in summer is far less than that of spring ploughing, and the area of fertilizer used in the downstream is relatively small, and most dealers have prepared fertilizer in the early stage. Therefore, the driving force of urea price upward in July is insufficient. It is expected that the price rebound of urea market will be within 30-50 yuan / ton, and the increase in some regions will not last too long. Urea may not be able to recover from the dead in July.

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Acetone breaks new record in the first half of the year

In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, acetone market experienced a long downturn in the first quarter. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average price of acetone in China was 5500 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was 4050 yuan / ton, with the market down by 26.36%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 to 3750 yuan / ton on March 31, with a drop of 30.56% in the East China market.

 

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Average price trend of acetone in national market from 2019 to 2020

 

Looking back on the acetone market in 2019, there is no bottom line. At the beginning of April 2019, the market once fell to the “2″ period, setting a new record low. In the second half of 2019, the market improved and rose to more than 6000 yuan, finally out of the dark moment. However, in 2020, the whole bulk industry was affected by the epidemic situation. Acetone, as a chemical product, was no exception. At the end of the first quarter, the lowest point of the East China market was 3750 yuan / ton.

 

Average price trend of acetone in East China market in the first half of 2020

 

In the second quarter of 2020, the domestic epidemic situation improved, enterprises returned to work and production, and the market activity gradually increased. Acetone, as a petrochemical product and an important raw material of disinfectant isopropanol, broke through the situation and innovated in the second quarter, reaching the peak in history. However, it is hard to find the unattainable 10000 yuan acetone. In contrast, 2020 is the time to witness the history.

 

In the first quarter, under the influence of the epidemic, crude oil plummeted, demand was depressed, logistics was limited, and external processing plants were shut down, and the acetone market plummeted. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average price of acetone in China was 5500 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was 4050 yuan / ton, with the market down by 26.36%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 to 3750 yuan / ton on March 31, with a drop of 30.56% in the East China market.

 

In the second quarter, first of all, WTI and Brent soared by 25% in a single day due to the possibility of a production reduction agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price of 3240 yuan / ton) on the 10th, an increase of 32.4% The market rose from 3700 yuan / ton to 4900 yuan / ton on the 10th day, up 32% in a few days. At this time, the overseas epidemic broke out, and the demand for disinfectant isopropanol increased sharply. Acetone, as its raw material, was increasing day by day. However, the Hong Kong stock reached a low level of 37000 tons. Therefore, under the situation of raw material pure benzene ascending and import shortage, acetone ushered in the first boost.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Secondly, the propylene market rose sharply in the middle of April. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking Shandong market as an example, the daily price increase of propylene enterprises on April 12 was more than 1000 yuan / ton, up 35.02%, and some enterprises even skyrocketed 5000 yuan / ton, with an increase of nearly 100%. From the perspective of the propylene acetone industrial chain, the increase in cost promoted the rise of acetone again, and isopropanol accumulated at this time With export orders scheduled to the end of May, the market demand is favorable and the future is expected. With the stimulation of the sharp rise of raw material propylene and the continuous favorable demand, the acetone factory concentrated on increasing 1000-1100 yuan / ton, which made the largest increase in history, and the market growth was far more than expected. The acetone market in East China rose to 6000 yuan / ton. Acetone ushered in a second boost.

 

Thirdly, in May, the spread of overseas epidemic situation reduced the source of imported goods, delayed unloading after arrival, and the acetone market was in short supply; the manufacturers controlled the volume of shipment, the industrial chain recovered in a centralized way, and other downstream demand of the terminal was gradually recovered, and the acetone market rose again. In May, the acetone market rose again to over 8000 yuan, a three-year high. After that, the news of factory shutdown for maintenance and quantity control and external delivery spread. At that time, the market heard that xisa chemical, Changshu Changchun and Sinopec No.3 well had overhaul plans in June, but there was still no shipping time to port. The market supply side rose again to the top of the storm, and acetone rose sharply to 9300 yuan / ton on the last trading day of May. In June, the acetone market reached a new high again. Within three days, acetone rose by 10%, easily breaking through 10000 yuan. Looking back on the history of nearly ten years, the market in the fourth quarter of 2013 was close to 10000 yuan, and in 2011, the market broke through 10000 yuan. As of June 10, the offer in East China was 11200 yuan / ton, that in South China was 12200 yuan / ton, and that in North China was 12000 yuan / ton.

 

At the end of the second quarter, after reaching a new high, acetone gradually fell back. After the acetone market broke through 10000 yuan, except for isopropanol plant, other downstream industries were in a loss state. Under the high cost pressure, bisphenol A and MMA plants kept falling negative, MIBK factory was shut down completely. With the rapid rise of acetone, isopropanol with large demand also had to push up again. High isopropanol was unsalable overseas, and more disinfection substitutes were put on the shelf, and isopropyl alcohol was on the shelf The overseas orders of alcohol were under pressure, and the reduction of factory orders also began to reduce the operating rate and the demand for acetone decreased. Acetone market also had to be rationally lowered. As of the end of the month, the acetone market fell again by 10000 yuan, and the acetone market in East China reached 9400-9600 yuan / ton. Although some factories were shut down for maintenance, the 10000 yuan acetone market in China has gone forever.

 

Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China

In July, the operating rate of acetone plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, in late July, the operating rate is expected to pick up, and the supply is relatively sufficient. At present, the cost of 9000 yuan / T acetone for downstream is still high, and most industries are still in a loss state. From the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the market for acetone will inevitably continue to decline under the favorable demand and unfavorable supply conditions. It is estimated that the acetone market will reach 8000-9000 yuan / ton in July.

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Caprolactam rigid consolidation in the second half of June, prices fell slightly (6.16-6.30)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices fell slightly in the second half of June. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 16 was 10466 yuan / ton, while that on June 30 was 10400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.64%.

 

On June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 52.31, down 0.33 points from yesterday, 47.69% from 100.00 points (2017-03-02), and 32.77% higher than the lowest 39.40 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to March 1, 2017 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

As of June 30, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9600 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the plant normally started up, accepted and delivered. Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year unit normal start-up, acceptance delivery. Fujian Shenyuan caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10900 yuan / ton.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

In the second half of June, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a downward trend. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 300 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 400 yuan / ton for two consecutive weeks. The port inventory is high, the speed of delivery is slow, and the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Shandong refining enterprises inventory increase, driving prices continue to fall.

 

In the second half of June, the performance of downstream PA6 was average, and the business offer was deadlocked, and the shipment situation declined. At present, the domestic operating rate is fair. Although the increase of overseas plasticization consumption demand is good for domestic enterprises to remove inventory, the recent follow-up of downstream factory orders is slow, the reaction to high price goods is general, and the main purpose is to prepare goods on bargain.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Caprolactam analysts believe that the current upstream raw materials and downstream prices fell, cost support weakened, downstream demand weak, leading to caprolactam market is not good. It is expected that caprolactam market will fall steadily in the future, and it is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market.

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Acrylic acid market price falls in June

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

 

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Acrylic acid market fell in June. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, as of June 29, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7700 yuan / ton, which was 10.47% lower than that on June 1 (8600 yuan / ton), and increased by 6.94% on a three-month cycle.

 

At the beginning of June, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 8600 yuan / ton. The shutdown of some plants increased, the supply of local market was limited, and the overall demand of downstream was good. The price of raw material propylene was firm, and the price of acrylic acid increased steadily. On the 4th, the price rose to 8666.67 yuan / T, and then began to stabilize. During this period, the price of raw propylene declined, but the plant operating rate was low, and propylene On the 15th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was lowered to 8233.33 yuan / ton, the price of raw material propylene rose slightly, some maintenance units recovered slowly, the overall operating rate of downstream was slightly increased, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the price of acrylic acid was stable. On the 18th, the price of raw propylene continued to rise, but the downstream demand was relatively light, so the demand was on demand The average price of acrylic acid in East China fell to 8166.67 yuan / ton on the 19th, and stabilized on the 22nd. The average price of acrylic acid in East China fell to 7733.33 yuan / ton. The downstream participation was not high, and the trading volume was light. On the 23rd and 24th, the stock preparation was basically completed before the festival, and the atmosphere was slightly clear On the 29th, the market price was slightly reduced to 7700 yuan / ton, with sufficient spot supply and downstream purchasing on demand.

 

PVA 2699

Statistics of weekly operating rate change of acrylic acid enterprises:

 

On June 29, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to rise. According to the price of business agency, Shandong propylene market increased by about 250 yuan / ton in a week at the beginning of June, and there was an obvious correction in the price in the middle of June, with a cumulative decrease of 350 yuan / ton in the seven days of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and rose again. Last Friday, June 19, the price had risen 350-450 yuan / ton. The price remained stable at the weekend, with a total drop of about 250 yuan / ton from the 22nd to 26th. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the price rose again from the 27th. Today, it still rose by 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6750 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers are now under low inventory pressure, some units are out of service, crude oil prices have risen slightly, and the downstream market operating rate is ideal. It is expected that the propylene price will still rise slightly in the near future, which is good support for acrylic acid.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Acrylic acid analysts from the business community believe that the current price of raw material propylene continues to rise to support costs, the market spot supply is sufficient, and downstream procurement is on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price and the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

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In July, the spot aluminum price may stand at 14000

According to the data of business agency, as of June 28, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 14030 yuan / ton, up 4.00% compared with the average market price of 13490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (June 1), and up 24.93% compared with the average market price of 11230 yuan / ton in the year (March 24).

 

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The price difference between domestic and foreign countries affects the export and import volume

 

In May 2020, China exported 382900 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%..

 

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 119145 tons of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum materials in May, slightly lower than the six-year high of 121025 tons hit in March, 12.3% higher than that in April and 164.8% higher than that in the same period last year.

 

Aluminum ingots are obviously removed from social inventory

 

On June 15, the social stock of electrolytic aluminum in China has dropped to 767000 tons, and the stock of domestic aluminum ingots as of June 18 was 75.3 tons, a decrease of 34000 tons compared with last week. It is reported that some domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not been fully restored since the reduction of production in late March. Some other enterprises have increased the supply of aluminum water, which has reduced the spot supply of aluminum ingots.

 

In July, the spot aluminum price may stand at 14000

 

Support basis:

 

1. In May, the output of metallurgical grade alumina was 5.581 million tons, and the daily average output of metallurgical grade alumina was 180000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.54%. From January to may, the cumulative output of metallurgical alumina was 27.142 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%.

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

The possibility of sharp decline of domestic alumina in a short period of time is not very likely, and the recent price continues to move well, which is supported by the cost side brought by alumina and favorable for aluminum price.

 

2. The supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have been effectively improved. Although July August is the off-season of traditional aluminum consumption, it is expected that the demand for construction, home appliances and medical industry will still be good in July. The ultra-high pressure in the new infrastructure construction and the gradual recovery of automobiles will also drive the demand for aluminum, and the demand for aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is large.

 

Rollover factors:

 

1. Since the middle and last ten days of April, the aluminum price has recovered greatly, and the profit of aluminum ingot manufacturers has gradually recovered. In Shanxi, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, new production capacity has been put into production, and supply side variables have increased.

 

2. Risk of secondary outbreak.

 

Later focus:

 

Real estate completion cycle and policy support for wire and cable industry

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