1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, sodium hypophosphate operated steadily this month. As of April 25th, the mainstream price of sodium hypophosphate (2123) in China was 20533.33 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

On April 25th, the benchmark price of yellow phosphorus in Shengyishe was 23593.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.12% compared to the beginning of this month (22660.00 yuan/ton). The yellow phosphorus limit up in mid month was driven by stability.

Demand side:

The raw material sodium hypophosphate runs smoothly, with stable cost support. The main downstream flame retardants are stocked on demand before the holiday, and the market transactions are orderly. The industry is mainly wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere is stable. In April, the retail sales of the terminal new energy vehicle industry significantly increased, indicating a strong momentum in the new energy vehicle market. Multiple factors are driving the improvement of new energy vehicle product strength.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The upstream yellow phosphorus market is operating steadily, with the main downstream flame retardants and average market trading. The linkage effect of the product is that sodium hypophosphate runs smoothly. However, there are favorable factors for terminal new energy vehicles, and the industrial chain is clearly positive. The weak consolidation of the sodium hypophosphate market continues.

This week (4.16-4.24), the market for calcium formate remained generally stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the average price of industrial grade 98% calcium formate in China is 3807.50 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last week’s price.

Trend of raw material formic acid:

Recently, the formic acid market has remained stable with little movement, and there has been an increase in market negotiation space. At this stage, the market price of raw material methanol is mainly rising, while raw material sulfuric acid is generally stable, with increased cost support. The supply side support is average, with some companies offering discounts to facilitate transactions, and downstream industries mainly supplementing positions at appropriate prices according to demand. The trading atmosphere in the formic acid market is still good, and companies ship according to the market. The mainstream quotation range is between 3100-3400 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of downstream products in the industrial chain:

Calcium formate, as a commonly used early strength agent to improve the early strength of cement, is widely used in dry powder mortar. It has the performance of accelerating hydration and improving the early strength of mortar, especially at low temperatures. Calcium formate can significantly improve the early strength of mortar.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, cement in East China has recently experienced a weak decline, with prices at 298.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 304.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.01% and a month on month decrease of 1.30%. The current price has dropped by 27.96% year-on-year.

From January to February 2024, the national real estate development investment was about 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, which is 0.6 percentage points narrower than that of January to December 2023; Among them, residential investment was 882.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.7%. From January to February, the construction area of real estate development enterprises reached 6.669 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%; The newly constructed area of housing is 94.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. Among them, the newly started residential construction area decreased by 30.6%. In recent years, real estate investment has gradually declined, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.

At present, the domestic calcium formate market is showing a trend of weak domestic demand, and the downstream real estate industry continues to show a weak trend. Insufficient demand for industrial grade calcium formate has led to low market trading activity. At present, the price of calcium formate is around 3800 yuan/ton, and the market price is relatively stable, but lacks obvious upward momentum.

Business Society calcium formate analysts believe that the short-term changes in cost and demand have limited impact on the market trend of calcium formate. Market participants are mostly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the price of calcium formate will consolidate and operate in the near future. More changes need to pay attention to market news guidance.

This week, the domestic price of polyvinyl alcohol remained stable and rose. As of April 23rd, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol in Shengyishe was 12266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% compared to last week (12233.00 yuan/ton). During the week, the polyvinyl alcohol market was mainly driven by first-time transactions, with average support for exports. Dealers often offered more discounts for shipments, and the cautious attitude of middle and downstream merchants remains.

Supply side:

This week, the market price of vinyl acetate fluctuated and fell. The current price of vinyl acetate raw material acetic acid continues to rise, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise. As of April 22, the benchmark price of acetic acid for Shengyishe was 3450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.29% compared to the beginning of this month (3100.00 yuan/ton). In the past 10 days, it has increased by 6.15%, in 15 days it has increased by 10.40%, in 20 days it has increased by 11.29%, and in 30 days it has increased by 15.00%. The domestic market price of vinyl acetate remained stable during the week, with a price range of around 6343 yuan/ton.

The market price of calcium carbide is also stable. As of April 23, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. Poor cost support; Mainstream manufacturers in East China have parked their equipment, and the market’s spot resources have decreased compared to before. However, downstream demand continues to decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Actual market transactions are limited, and the market atmosphere is weak;

Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) Industry Chain

On the demand side:

From the perspective of domestic demand for polyvinyl alcohol, polymerization additives, fabric slurries, adhesives, vinylon fibers, papermaking slurries and coatings, and building coatings products have weak consumption of raw materials. Enterprises mainly purchase on a per order basis, and the accumulation of raw material inventory is limited. Production is coming to an end, and the demand for raw materials is weakening. There is currently no good news for other terminal enterprises, and there is a slight room for concessions in the price of polyvinyl alcohol in the later stage.

Overall

Supply side support is positive, but there is still a strong sentiment of price support, with a focus on price protection, and the mentality of cargo holders is still acceptable. Downstream users will continue to purchase on demand, and it is expected that the price of polyvinyl alcohol will remain stable in recent market discussions.

This week, domestic cobalt prices followed suit

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on April 23 was 219500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% compared to the cobalt price of 223400 yuan/ton on April 15; The cobalt price has dropped by 2.01% compared to 224000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market is less favorable than expected. International cobalt prices have fallen, and domestic cobalt prices have fallen again this week.

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, cobalt prices have continued to decline recently, and this week the decline in cobalt prices has accelerated, with the weekly decline in cobalt prices reaching the largest decline in 24 years.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in March, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 11.3GWh, accounting for 32.4% of the total installed volume, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month on month increase of 62.9%; From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 30.9Wh, accounting for 36.2% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries increased on a month on month basis, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased. The demand for cobalt in ternary batteries grew less than expected, which is bearish for the cobalt market.

International cobalt price decline

According to the cobalt price trend chart of the London futures trading market, it can be seen that cobalt prices have been weakly consolidating since mid March, and cobalt prices have fallen this week. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Society, the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market has not increased as expected. The international cobalt price has fallen, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. It is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate weakly at a low level in the future.

Sinopec East China Phenol Ketone Enterprise has raised its acetone price by 450 yuan/ton, with an execution rate of 8200 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China Phenol Ketone Enterprise has raised its acetone price by 450 yuan/ton, with an execution rate of 8150-8200 yuan/ton. The market is facing tight supply of goods, and the market in various mainstream regions has seen a significant increase with the increase in factory listed prices. The procurement intensity is average, and the trading volume needs to be released. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the national acetone market has risen from 7487 yuan/ton on April 15th to 8112.5 yuan/ton on April 22nd, with a cumulative increase of 8.35%, with a daily increase of 7% on April 22nd.

On the 22nd, mainstream domestic factories significantly increased their prices by 450 yuan/ton, implementing a price range of 8150-8200 yuan/ton.

On April 22nd, the acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Rise and fall range (4.15-22)

East China region/ 8250./950

Shandong region/ 8000./700

Yanshan region/ 8000./600

South China region/ 8150./850

The raw materials have been significantly driven, the supply of pure benzene has tightened, and prices continue to rise.

From a downstream perspective, in the MIBK industry, Anhui Zhonghuifa and Hunan Changde are planning to add new units for production. If these two units are successfully put into operation, it will significantly increase demand for acetone and have a significant impact on their market.

The supply side has tightened, and the demand side has also improved. It is expected to remain strong in the short term.