Author Archives: lubon

Game theory does not change the stability trend, and the supply and demand balance in the acrylic acid market remains unchanged

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown a typical pattern of “upward pressure, downward support”, with overall prices remaining stable, but the internal supply-demand game is very intense. This’ stability ‘is not a prosperity brought about by strong demand, but a relatively fragile balance formed between the cost line and the demand ceiling. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6166.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.
1. Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene has recently seen a slight increase, which directly drives up the production cost of acrylic acid. In this situation, the profit margin of manufacturers is compressed, and their willingness to sell at a lower price is extremely low. The strong price of propylene has built a solid bottom for the acrylic acid market, effectively reducing the potential for significant price drops. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6038.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
2. Supply side:
The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a moderate level (about 75%). Although some equipment maintenance was completed and production resumed in the early stage, the overall supply pressure was not affected.
This controllable supply situation has given manufacturers some confidence in raising prices. They tend to maintain stable quotes and even tentatively push up slightly, which is an important foundation for the market to remain stable.
3. Demand side:
Despite having bottom support, the market lacks the drive to break through upwards, and the core bottleneck lies in the demand side. Downstream industries (such as adhesives, coatings, etc.) generally adopt a cautious attitude, with a procurement model mainly based on “on-demand procurement” and no large-scale hoarding behavior.
With the decrease in temperature in northern regions, construction sites have decreased, further weakening the demand for acrylic esters related to building materials. Weak demand cannot provide any effective impetus for price increases.
Both buyers and sellers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The demand side does not believe that prices will rise sharply, so they are not in a hurry to chase after them; The supplier also knows that demand is limited, and a significant price increase will suppress shipments.
This mentality leads to a flat overall trading atmosphere in the market, making it difficult to form a unilateral upward trend.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a stage of intense competition between “cost driven” and “demand reality”. The cost side (propylene price increase) is like an invisible hand, supporting the market from below. The demand side (weak consumption) is like a ceiling, suppressing the upward space of prices. The result is that market prices are locked in a narrow range, forming a situation of “stable operation”. It is expected that this volatile consolidation pattern will continue in the short term. The future direction of the market needs to focus on the changing trend of upstream propylene prices and whether there are any unexpected recovery signals in downstream demand.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

Cost side is under pressure. PC prices are expected to weaken in mid November

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was mainly volatile in mid November. The spot prices of most brands are fluctuating. As of November 18th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 13766.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.82% compared to early November.
Root cause analysis
Supply side: In the early stage of October, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had relatively concentrated maintenance, and it is planned to gradually restart by the middle and end of this month. Recently, there has been a mutual occurrence of factory restart and maintenance. After preliminary digestion, the current position of inventory is relatively controllable. Overall, the PC supply side has limited support for PC changes. The expected loose supply of goods in the future may increase the pressure on factories to sell.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market continued to decline in mid November. The low price position of upstream phenol acetone is difficult to predict a positive outlook for the bisphenol A market. In addition, there has been no improvement in the consumer side of bisphenol A, and multiple factors have led to low and weak spot prices. Although the current domestic market atmosphere is still bleak, spot prices have fallen to low levels. In addition, with no pressure on factory inventory, there has been an increase in price manipulation between enterprises and merchants, forming a bottoming force. It is expected that the price of bisphenol A will remain stable in the future, but the support for PC costs will still be weak.
On the demand side: The load position of downstream factories is still not ideal, and inventory is kept buying at low prices, with weak demand levels. The export market is synchronously sluggish, and PC terminal enterprises are conservative in their production scheduling. Merchants within the range tend to follow the market trend and adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. After meeting the demand for filling vacancies in the early stage, the market trading atmosphere returned to calm, and the speed of goods circulation slowed down again. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Market outlook
In mid November, the domestic PC market remained stable with some weakness. The upstream bisphenol A market fell at a low level, and the cost value did not provide good support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable with small fluctuations, and there is an expectation of a rebound in the future market. The market trading situation remains weak, with long and short positions in the market. It is expected that the PC market will enter a stalemate and consolidation trend in the short term.

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Activated carbon prices have risen this week (11.10-11.14)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12633 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12666/ton, with a price increase of 0.26%.
Domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers’ prices have risen this week, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon in East China ranging from 9500-13000 yuan/ton. Coconut shell activated carbon has strong demand in water treatment, air purification, sodium ion batteries and other fields, supporting price increases. In addition, the extended shipping cycle, increased storage and environmental protection requirements have pushed up import costs.
Import raw material prices in September 2025: The FOB price of coconut shell carbonization material in Indonesia is $1019/ton, and in India it is $958/ton, both of which have increased by more than 80% compared to the same period in 2024. The main coconut producing countries in Southeast Asia are affected by natural disasters, policy adjustments, and other factors, resulting in a shortage of raw material supply. Although some countries have plans to expand production, the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short term, and prices will still remain high. ‌‌
Prediction: Domestic coconut shell activated carbon is supported by raw material prices, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

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The domestic natural rubber market first fell and then rose, with a slight rebound

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated and slightly rebounded recently (11.1-11.13). As of November 13th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14883 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% from 14750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 2.88% from the low point of 14466 yuan/ton during the cycle. Supported by the cost of natural rubber raw materials and the urgent demand, natural rubber has slightly rebounded. However, the slight increase in Tianjiao inventory at the port has a certain bearish impact on the Tianjiao market. As of November 13th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14800~15100 yuan/ton.
As of November 13th, the price of Thai glue was 56.30 baht/kg, a slight increase of 0.54% from 56.00 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. The current price of natural rubber raw materials is still running at a high level, and domestic rubber cutting will gradually stop in the later stage. However, the global rubber cutting season will gradually come, and the overall supply of natural rubber raw materials is expected to increase in the later stage. The price of natural rubber raw materials may fall from a high level.
Recently (11.1-11.13), natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which has a greater impact on natural rubber. As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 449500 tons, an increase of 1800 tons or 0.40% compared to the previous period.
Recently (11.1-11.13), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of November 7th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.40%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are running at a high level, supported by downstream demand, and the inventory of Tianjiao Port has slightly increased. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday.

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Negative led hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to weaken and prices fell in early November. On November 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 930 yuan/ton, and on November 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.53% in price.
The main bearish trend is the continued weakening of the hydrogen peroxide market
In early November, hydrogen peroxide supply was loose, terminal demand was sluggish, and negative factors dominated, resulting in a continuous decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region is 850-880 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 850 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50 yuan/ton. As of November 12th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the domestic market has dropped to around 860 yuan/ton, an overall decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that at the end of November, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry was weak, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply doubled. The market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

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