1、 Price trend
This week, the acrylic acid market showed a pulse like fluctuation trend of first rising, then falling, and then stabilizing, with prices playing around the 12750 yuan/ton range. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of high-quality acrylic acid in East China was 12750 yuan/ton on March 11th, and rapidly rose to a stage high of 13076 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to March 12th, with a growth rate of 2.56%; On March 15th, the price quickly fell back to 12750 yuan/ton, giving up all the stage gains; From March 16th to 18th, prices stabilized and remained unchanged from the beginning of last week, maintaining an overall trend of range consolidation.
2、 Market situation
Cost side:
The disturbance of the energy supply chain caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains a core factor on the cost side, with high fluctuations in international crude oil and propane prices driving the rigid support of propylene raw material costs. But as market sentiment gradually cools down, the price of propylene has slightly fallen from its peak, and the driving force of the raw material side to push up acrylic acid has weakened. Cost support has shifted from “strong driving” to “bottom line support”, providing space for price decline.
Supply and demand side:
1. Supply side: The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, with sufficient spot supply and no obvious supply gap. The tight spot circulation caused by panic hoarding in the early stage has gradually eased, and the pace of enterprise shipments has returned to stability.
2. Demand side: Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and water reducers mainly rely on rigid procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices above 13000 yuan/ton. After concentrated stockpiling in the early stage, demand enters a digestion period, lacking incremental demand support, and the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate, restricting the upward space of prices.
Emotional side:
At the beginning of this week, the market was affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost transmission, and speculative sentiment and hoarding behavior drove prices higher. However, with the marginal easing of the situation and the correction of raw material prices, market panic subsided, transactions returned to rationality, and actual order negotiations focused more on fundamental matching, resulting in a narrower range of price fluctuations.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, the supply-demand game will continue to dominate the operation of the acrylic acid market, and the price is likely to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation pattern, with a core fluctuation range around 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Focus on three core variables:
1. Upstream raw material propylene prices fluctuate. If the raw material continues to weaken, it will further weaken the cost support of acrylic acid or trigger a slight price drop;
2. Changes in downstream industry operating rates and procurement pace, if the demand for essential goods continues to weaken, may exacerbate the risk of downward price fluctuations;
3. The dynamic geopolitical situation in the Middle East may reactivate market sentiment and drive cost and price fluctuations if there are new changes in the situation.
In the medium to long term, the industry needs to pay attention to the pace of new production capacity deployment and adjustment of device operating rates in the second quarter. If supply pressure gradually releases, the supply-demand pattern may usher in a new balance, and price trends will be more in line with fundamental changes.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 17, 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a steady upward and moderate recovery trend, with prices gradually rising from 168000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the cycle to 170000 yuan/ton at the end of the cycle, with a cumulative increase of 1.19%. The market trend in this cycle has relied on rigid support from the supply side to achieve a slight increase in prices, and has not seen a significant rise due to the constraints of flat downstream demand. The combined effects of external market linkage, raw material flow, and other factors have driven the market to moderately improve and fluctuate upwards.
International market: multiple factors providing support for volatility and stabilization
The international antimony market fluctuated and adjusted synchronously during the same period this cycle, with the mainstream transaction price range stabilizing at 23000-25000 US dollars per metric ton. After a brief pullback in the early stage, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded this cycle. On the one hand, the United States continued to increase its support for the local antimony supply chain, strengthening its ability to independently control strategic resources. On the other hand, the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up global energy and shipping costs, while driving up expectations for antimony demand in the defense sector. The dual factors together provide support for international antimony prices; Recently, there has been an abnormal phenomenon of price inversion between antimony oxide and antimony ingots in overseas markets. At the same time, the proportion of antimony raw materials circulating to China in Southeast Asia has significantly increased. Driven by the continuous narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the trend of raw materials returning to China has become increasingly evident, indirectly easing the tight pressure on domestic raw material supply and forming a positive support for the domestic market.
Supply side: rigid and tight, with sufficient price support
Domestic refineries are generally optimistic about the post holiday market this cycle, with a low willingness to ship. They are actively controlling their shipments to reduce the circulation in the spot market, and low-priced sources continue to be scarce. Holders and traders have a strong mentality of hoarding goods, often choosing to reduce spot purchases and wait for the post holiday market to start, further exacerbating the tight balance pattern on the spot side. The difficulty of replenishing raw materials remains high, and high-quality and low-priced antimony concentrate resources are difficult to find. In addition, some mines are limited in production due to seasonal factors, and the tight supply of raw materials supports the mentality of refineries to raise prices. The overall market has no initiative to lower prices and ship, providing bottom support for spot prices.
Demand side: rigid demand dominates and constrains upward movement
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: As the core deep processing product of the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide is the mainstream category, mainly used in the field of flame retardants, and also extended to photovoltaic glass, electronic materials and other scenarios. Its market trend is strongly linked with antimony ingots. Affected by the fluctuation of bromine prices, production costs have significantly increased. Coupled with the restrictive policies of developed countries such as the European Union on halogenated flame retardants, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced antimony ingots, and their procurement mainly relies on small batches of essential inventory replenishment. The lack of follow-up on actual transactions has to some extent constrained the upward space of antimony ingot prices.

Photovoltaics: As the core demand area for antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass industry is currently in a period of supply-demand adjustment. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to improve, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has shown signs of a month on month rebound in early March, the pressure of high inventory and oversupply in the industry has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the demand for antimony based clarifying agents has slowed down, failing to form a large-scale procurement pull.
Outlook for the future: In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will continue its stable to strong oscillation trend, with the core support coming from the rigid and tight supply side pattern. The upstream price stance is firm, and holders have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot circulation remains tight, while the positive impact of external market stabilization and raw material return will continue; Although downstream demand is generally flat and it is difficult to form a strong driving force for essential procurement, it will not significantly suppress the market. Under the long short game, the market will maintain a moderate upward trend and there will be no significant fluctuations in the short term. Subsequent focus will be on the evolution of the international geopolitical situation, fluctuations in foreign prices, progress of overseas raw material return, and the recovery of demand in downstream photovoltaic and flame retardant industries.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to March 16, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed significant fluctuations and an overall upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 30.7% within half a month as of March 16. This market fluctuation is mainly influenced by multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts leading to changes in crude oil prices, domestic supply contraction, and weak downstream demand.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the first half of March, international crude oil prices fluctuated significantly, becoming the core cost support driving the upward trend of toluene prices. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for navigation. As an important channel for global oil transportation, it has raised concerns about global crude oil supply and driven a significant surge in international oil prices. On March 10th, due to the easing of market concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict, oil prices experienced a significant decline, with the lowest price of US crude oil falling to $84.43 per barrel, indicating a large overall fluctuation. As of March 13th, the settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $98.71 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May is $103.14 per barrel. The significant increase in crude oil prices directly drives up the production cost of toluene, providing core support for the upward trend of market prices. However, the short-term correction of oil prices has also led to a temporary decline in toluene prices, which has simultaneously amplified the volatility of the toluene market.
Supply side:
In the first half of March, the overall supply of toluene in China showed a shrinking trend, coupled with regional market differentiation, which provided strong support for prices. The operating load of domestic and surrounding refineries has decreased, and some main refinery units have reduced their load, resulting in a significant reduction in supply and driving local prices to strengthen; The refineries in the surrounding major production areas have also simultaneously reduced their load, further exacerbating the global tight supply situation and supporting the firm domestic price of toluene.
At the same time, there are slight differences in the trend between domestic regions, but the overall trend is upward. Among them, Shandong region was driven by the expectation of supply tightening, with active negotiations in the early stage and rapid price increases. Later, due to high prices, downstream facilities were shut down, and prices fell back; The supply in Jiangsu region is relatively loose, and overall price fluctuations are relatively mild, with slightly weak spot transactions; Refineries in Guangdong region have generally reduced their burden, resulting in overall tight supply and supporting regional prices. However, downstream production is limited, procurement intentions are low, and transactions are limited. In addition, some domestic refineries have entered the maintenance season, coupled with the obstruction of imported goods supply, exacerbating the expectation of supply tightening. Holders of goods are reluctant to sell and pushing prices higher, further boosting prices.
Demand side:
In the first half of March, the overall demand for toluene in China showed a pattern of “weak demand and insufficient support”, with limited demand support from the PX industry as the core. Coupled with the obstruction of cost transfer, it failed to effectively boost the price of toluene and to some extent suppressed the market increase. The overall demand performance was in sharp contrast to the contraction of the supply side, showing a stage characteristic of supply-demand imbalance. As the core downstream field of toluene, the PX industry entered the maintenance season in March. Multiple sets of PX units at home and abroad underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, directly leading to a reduction in the demand for toluene procurement. The expected operating load of PX units further decreased to a low level, and the trend of demand shrinkage was obvious.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX quotation of Sinopec Sales Company fluctuated upward in the first half of March. On March 1st, the quotation was about 7300 yuan/ton, and as of March 16th, it rose to 10050 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 37.7% in the first half of the month; The price of PX in Asia also fluctuated and rose, with an average price of about $1180/ton on March 1st, rising to $1490/ton on March 16th, a cumulative increase of 26.3%. The price increase in foreign markets was slightly lower than that in China.
Market forecast:
Overall, the short-term toluene market is expected to maintain a high volatility trend, with geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in crude oil prices remaining core cost support variables; The maintenance and load reduction of domestic and foreign refineries continue, and the pattern of supply reduction is difficult to change in the short term, which provides certain support for prices. Continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics, crude oil trends, and the recovery of PX industry operations.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3468.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% from the beginning of the week price of 3450 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.19%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting the tightness of fluorite spot prices
1. The resumption of production after the holiday fell short of expectations, and the operating rate in the main production areas was sluggish
After the Spring Festival, the overall progress of resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants is slow, and the core production areas in the north are constrained by weather and policies, resulting in a much lower operating load than the same period in previous years. As the main production area of fluorite in China, Inner Mongolia was still affected by low temperature weather in early March, which hindered mining and transportation. In addition, during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, safety and environmental protection inspections were intensified, and some small and medium-sized mines were shut down for rectification, resulting in limited release of compliant production capacity; Although production areas such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian in the south are gradually resuming work, they are constrained by tight raw ore supply and slow improvement in the operating rate of beneficiation plants, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap in the north. The overall operating rate of fluorite in the country remains low, and the spot output is lower than market expectations.
2. Normalization of industry regulation and continuous clearance of existing production capacity
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions has further compressed the market circulation of goods. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally at a low level, and traders have limited stock reserves and extremely low willingness to sell at low prices, forming a market pattern of “less goods, higher prices”.
3. Limited import supplementation makes it difficult to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
Although the domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%, the supply of overseas sources has also been tight recently, and there has been no significant increase in import volume. Due to transportation and production capacity limitations, major import sources such as Mongolia have received less fluorite than expected, and import costs remain high, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic spot shortage, further exacerbating the domestic supply shortage and supporting the strengthening of domestic trade prices.
Demand side: downstream fluorine chemical industry recovery requires urgent support gradually emerging
1. Hydrofluoric acid market rebounds, driving demand for raw material procurement
The downstream anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is strengthening synchronously, with mainstream delivery prices rising to 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have restarted their facilities and their operating rates have rebounded, leading to an increase in the demand for fluorite raw materials. Although hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been affected by the price increase of sulfuric acid and other auxiliary materials, their profit margins have been compressed, and they tend to purchase high priced fluorite rationally. However, the demand for stocking during peak seasons is gradually released, and the trading center of fluorite is steadily shifting upwards under the support of essential needs. Downstream price increases are further transmitted to the upstream raw material end.

2. The implementation of refrigerant quotas and the expected increase in stocking during peak seasons
The refrigerant quota policy will be officially implemented in 2026, further increasing industry concentration and orderly release of production capacity by top enterprises. Coupled with the approaching summer air conditioning refrigeration peak season, downstream refrigerant companies will stock up in advance, driving the recovery of upstream demand for hydrofluoric acid and fluorite. At the same time, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow. The growth rate of demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluorine-containing polymers and other products is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices.
Market forecast: The tight supply-demand balance in the domestic fluorite market is difficult to change, and prices still have upward momentum. On the supply side, weather and policy controls in northern production areas will continue, making it difficult to accelerate the resumption of mining production in the short term, and the low inventory pattern will continue; On the demand side, with the rise in temperature, the downstream fluorine chemical production rate will further increase, and the demand for stocking during peak season will continue to be released. Cost and emotional support are still present, and it is expected that the price of fluorite will maintain a strong oscillation trend, and some high-grade source quotations are expected to further rise.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: On March 12th, the average market price was 8506.67 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 8.55% compared to the previous trading day.
Analysis: The market price of pure benzene has increased today. The international crude oil market prices have risen, with a significant surge after the opening of the Asian session, which has led to an increase in the price of pure benzene in the market. Sinopec’s listing price has been raised by 400 yuan/ton, with an execution of 8400 yuan/ton, to be implemented on March 12th. Shandong local refining enterprises have raised their quotations, with factory prices around 8300-8800 yuan/ton. At present, the progress of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remains the primary focus of attention. At the same time, we need to be alert to negative factors. The easing of conflicts may lead to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and the pure benzene market still needs to pay more attention to the trend of raw materials.