1、 Price trend
As of May 22nd, the reference average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid market in China is 9700 yuan/ton, which is 12.53% higher than the reference average price of 8620 yuan/ton on May 12th.
2、 Market analysis
In the past ten days, the market price of phosphoric acid has shown a strong upward trend. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and under cost pressure, phosphoric acid continues to rise along with the price of raw materials. The operating rate of the enterprise is stable, and downstream procurement is in high demand. The main focus is on individual negotiations for each transaction. At present, the market is mainly optimistic.
market conditions
As of May 22nd, the market price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China is around 9500-10000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 9600-10200 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In the past ten days, the price trend of yellow phosphorus in the market has been strong and upward, with a production rate of about 60% in the Yunnan Guizhou region. At present, the market supply is tight, and manufacturers are mainly pushing prices. As the price of yellow phosphorus rises at a high level, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly seek low prices for transactions. As of May 22nd, the yellow phosphorus market in Yunnan Guizhou region has been operating at a high level, with a reference price of around 33962 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.
3、 Future forecast
Recently, the trend of the phosphoric acid market has been dominant. The rise in costs has driven up the price of phosphoric acid, and the market’s mentality of buying up rather than buying down has increased. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise strongly.

This week (5.18-5.22), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 16550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.21%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

On the supply side, most magnesium smelting enterprises in the main production areas maintain a regular production pace, and the overall supply of raw magnesium is still relatively loose. At present, some enterprises have started to arrange summer maintenance and production reduction, and the supply side of magnesium is expected to gradually tighten in the future. This week, due to the slowdown in market transaction pace, some enterprises in the main production areas have seen a slight increase in inventory, but overall it is still in the middle range of the same period in history. The attitude of big factories to support prices remains firm, with a focus on controlling quantity and prioritizing meeting long order demands; A few small and medium-sized manufacturers under financial pressure have weakened their confidence in rising prices in the light market situation, and occasional low-priced selling situations have occurred.

On the demand side, the overall market operation is stable, and the demand in traditional metallurgy, desulfurization and other fields is basically flat, with no significant fluctuations observed; The demand for magnesium alloy processing is steadily released, and the performance of orders for lightweight new energy vehicles and structural components for electric two wheelers is particularly outstanding. However, due to the mentality of “buying up and not buying down”, downstream enterprises have low enthusiasm for replenishing inventory and generally adopt the operation mode of on-demand procurement and on-demand ordering. The export performance is also stable, with a year-on-year increase of 5.68% in China’s magnesium product exports in April, continuing the growth trend since the first quarter.

Raw material end

The prices of raw and auxiliary materials remain stable with a moderate to strong trend, and the production end of Lantan continues to be mired in losses. The current market price of magnesium has dropped to near the cost line of most enterprises, and the industry’s loss area continues to expand. The space for further price decline has been completely blocked.
comprehensive forecast
The short-term technical side sends a bottom signal of “oversold at a low level, brewing a rebound”, while the supply and demand fundamentals – high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation – do not support a significant rebound, forming a game pattern of resonance decline and divergence rise between the two. The simultaneous action of these two forces may lead to a complex rhythm of “slowing down the decline speed – sideways oscillation – testing the low again” in the price.

In May 2026, the domestic nitrile rubber market continued to decline at a high level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 21, the price was at 20200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.11% from 22225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The cost side market has fallen from a high level, weakening support for nitrile rubber. As of May 21st, the price of butadiene was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from 10533 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The tight supply situation has eased to some extent. Since May, the operating rate of domestic nitrile rubber plants has remained at 70% -75%, with early maintenance units gradually resuming production and spot supply gradually easing; The easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a slight increase in the volume of imported rubber from Japan and South Korea compared to the previous period. Port inventories have slowly accumulated, easing the tight domestic spot market situation; The manufacturer’s inventory is low, and the trader’s inventory has slightly increased. The overall inventory pressure is controllable, and there is no obvious risk of inventory accumulation.
The weak demand has a bearish impact on nitrile rubber. Although the increase in penetration rate of new energy vehicles has driven certain demand in downstream industries such as seals and rubber hoses, the demand for traditional fuel vehicles is sluggish, and the overall recovery is slow. Large transactions of nitrile rubber are rare. On the one hand, the engineering and industrial products industry has weak domestic demand, and on the other hand, exports are under pressure due to India’s anti-dumping policies, resulting in limited demand growth. Overall, in May, the downstream demand for nitrile rubber was mainly small orders, and high price acceptance was weak.
As of May 20th, the nitrile rubber spread index showed a trend from strong to weak since mid April, and continued to weaken after falling below the 0 axis. Although it briefly recovered in early May, it turned downwards again in mid May, and the current negative direction has expanded, restarting the downward trend. Combining supply and demand with cost, raw material support has weakened, demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a weakly balanced pattern. Short term prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise, with the center of gravity shifting downwards in the medium term and operating under pressure throughout the year.
From the fundamental perspective of the industrial chain, the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile are fluctuating at a high level with a narrow range, and cost support is still present; But downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement as the main focus, increasing pressure on manufacturers to ship, and prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3487.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the early week price of 3493.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 3.29%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting loose spot availability of fluorite
1. Concentrated mining volume increases the operating rate in the main production areas
Recently, the resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has accelerated, and the core production areas in the north have gradually increased their operating load due to the warming weather; The safety and environmental protection inspections in major production areas such as Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia have slowed down, the operating rate has increased, and the supply of spot goods has increased. Newly discovered fluorite mines in Sichuan and Gansu have strengthened expectations of loose supply in the medium to long term, leading to a slight decline in the fluorite market.
2. Normalization of industry regulation makes it difficult to add new mines
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions measures has further compressed the market circulation of goods and suppressed the decline of fluorite raw materials.
3. Maintain high import volume to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
The domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%. With the end of the rainy season in Mongolia, the arrival volume in April and May increased by 40% compared to the previous period, and the price was 300-500 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic fluorite. Low arsenic (≤ 0.0005%) fluorite has zero tariffs and obvious import cost advantages. It is concentrated in ports in East and North China, and Mongolia’s fluorite imports remain at a high level, driving down the domestic fluorite market price.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, while rigid demand is the main source of procurement
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer serious losses. The procurement of essential needs is the main focus, which significantly reduces the price of upstream fluorite. Downstream refrigerants (R22/R32, etc.) are affected by the flat demand for quotas and household appliances, and the operating rate is difficult to exceed 50%. Downstream hydrogen fluoride companies tend to be cautious about purchasing fluorite, adopting a strategy of on-demand replenishment and batch replenishment, and only conducting phased purchases. Conventional procurement plans have generally slowed down, which has led to a decline in the fluorite market. However, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow, and the growth rate of demand for products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and fluorine-containing polymers is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices and limiting the decline of fluorite market.
Market forecast: Due to the warming weather in northern production areas and the accelerated resumption of mining production, some manufacturers in the domestic fluorite market have high inventory; The trend is that the operating rate of downstream fluorine chemical industry has not changed much, and downstream continues to observe, buying up instead of buying down to strengthen the downward trend. It is expected that the price of fluorite may slightly decrease, but the cost inversion is obvious, and the decline of fluorite is limited.

This week (5.11-5.15), the domestic PVC market maintained a volatile trend. Futures have experienced significant fluctuations due to policy stimulus, while spot markets have maintained a weak balance between demand and supply. The weak supply-demand pattern has not changed, and the short-term market has shown bottoming characteristics.
1、 Price trend: Futures’ roller coaster ‘, spot prices remain deadlocked at low levels
This week, the main PVC futures contract experienced a severe volatility, with spot prices following suit but with limited fluctuations. As of 3:00 pm on May 15th, the main futures contract was reported at 5027 yuan/ton, with a weekly fluctuation of 4.1%; The mainstream price of spot East China Dianshi SG-5 is 4890-4980 yuan/ton, with fluctuations of less than 100 yuan within the week, showing the characteristics of “strong futures fluctuations and weak spot prices following the rise”. The spot price of East China Dianshi SG-5 fell by 1.62% in the week.
2、 Supply and demand fundamentals: Limited supply contraction, sustained low demand
Supply side: Spring maintenance significantly reduces the burden of ethylene method drag
The overall PVC production rate this week is around 70%, which has not changed much compared to last week, and the supply pressure is still relatively high. The operating rate of the ethylene method has decreased, mainly due to the high price of ethylene raw materials, which has caused losses for enterprises. The pressure can only be alleviated by reducing the operating rate. The operating rate of the carbide method remains at 70-80%. Currently, the maintenance efforts of enterprises are moderate and have little impact on the market. There are no major variables in the future supply. In terms of inventory, social inventory remains at a high level, especially during the previous holiday period when there was a certain accumulation of inventory in the market, supply only increased without decreasing, and prices of bankrupt enterprises decreased. High inventory and supply pressure are currently difficult to effectively alleviate in the context of relatively sluggish demand.
Demand side: Downstream continues to be weak, export resilience limited hedging
The demand side remains the main limiting factor in the market, with an average downstream operating rate of less than 35% this week, a significant decrease from last week, and the operating rate hitting a new low for the year. The operating rate of downstream PVC pipes and profiles is generally lower than 30%, mainly due to the sluggish real estate industry and severe shrinkage of orders.
While domestic demand is weak, export performance is unsatisfactory. Despite the cancellation of export tax rebates and the end of the export rush, external demand still shows some resilience. Especially high exports to India. In addition, overseas facilities are gradually entering the maintenance period, maintaining a high demand for PVC in China. External demand has to some extent compensated for the shortfall in domestic demand, but overall, it is difficult to reverse the overall weak demand pattern.
3、 Cost side: Low price of calcium carbide, expanding losses of ethylene method
This week, the price of calcium carbide is still hovering at a relative bottom, with a weekly increase of 2.15%. However, from the curve, the price of calcium carbide is still at a temporary bottom. The cost support has weakened. The price of ethylene raw materials remains high, and ethylene production companies continue to suffer losses. There is a strong willingness to reduce production and reduce burdens, so companies can only shrink their supply, but it will not have a significant impact on the overall market.
4、 Future prospects
Analysts believe that the short-term PVC market will maintain a pattern of range oscillation and bottoming out. On the supply side, spring maintenance continues, and there is still room for a downward adjustment in the ethylene production rate. Supply may continue to shrink, but it is difficult to shake the high inventory pattern in the market in the short term. On the demand side, the off-season continues, especially in the real estate industry, where demand remains a disadvantageous factor. Overall, under the situation of supply and demand game, the recent PVC fluctuation range may further narrow, and the weak pattern remains unchanged.