1、 Review of Antimony Ingot Market in 2025
In 2025, the antimony ingot market will exhibit the characteristics of “rising and falling, and fluctuating at a high level” under the triple logic resonance of “supply rigidity+demand expansion+policy regulation”. From a global perspective, the supply and demand gap of antimony will widen to 34000-39000 tons by 2025, reaching a new high in nearly 5 years. The price difference between domestic and foreign antimony ingots has once exceeded 80%, and the domestic antimony ingot price is significantly higher than the international market, highlighting the comprehensive strategic resource attributes.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in 2025, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market first surged significantly, then fluctuated and fell back. The overall market fluctuated and rose throughout the year, with an average price of 140250 yuan/ton on January 1 and 162000 yuan/ton on December 30, a cumulative increase of 15.51%.
Rapid surge from January to March: On January 1st, the average price was 140250 yuan/ton, and in mid March, it surged to about 230000 yuan/ton (an increase of over 64%). In the first quarter, the domestic antimony mining quota tightened, and the import volume declined at the same time. The domestic antimony ingot supply tightened, and the supply side showed strong positive performance. At the same time, the downstream photovoltaic industry’s stocking demand was released. With the joint support of supply and demand, the price of antimony ingots quickly rose.
Fluctuated decline from April to December: Prices gradually declined after March, closing at 162000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with a decrease of about 30%. The main reason is the phased destocking of photovoltaic glass, weak demand for antimony oxide, lack of demand support, insufficient upward momentum in antimony ingot prices, cooling market sentiment, and a return to supply and demand fundamentals.
From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on an overall upward trend for 25 years, with a total of 6 months of upward movement and 6 months of downward movement (a 6.76% drop in December), with the largest increase in March at 44.37% and the largest decrease in June at 13.46%.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing the Antimony Ingot Market in 2026:
Supply side: Continuously tight due to multiple constraints
Production: Due to environmental restrictions and depletion of mining resources, China’s antimony ingot production from January to November 2025 will be about 60000 tons, a decrease of about 16% compared to the same period last year. The main production areas of Hunan and Guangxi account for over 70% of the production, and the newly added production capacity will be less than 5000 tons. The domestic antimony mining quota will be reduced by 15% compared to 2024, with 40% of small-scale mines being shut down for environmental protection, and the supply elasticity in the main production areas will decrease. The domestic antimony mining quota for 2026 is expected to continue the tightening trend of 2025, coupled with further increases in environmental compliance costs, making it difficult for small-scale mines to resume production, and limiting the release of production capacity in major production areas (Hunan, Guangxi). It is expected that the domestic production of antimony ingots in the 26th year will be basically the same as in the 25th year, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap through domestic capacity expansion.

Import: Customs statistics show that the import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China from January to November 2025 was 32655.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. The highest import volume in January 2025 was 4543 tons, and the lowest import volume in March 2025 was 1483 tons. The overall import volume is lower than the same period last year, and the overall supply of antimony ore in China is still tight. The significant year-on-year contraction in the import volume of concentrate in 2025 has directly strengthened the supply constraints of the domestic antimony ingot market, becoming one of the core factors driving the price surge at the beginning of the year and supporting the central rise of prices throughout the year. However, the fluctuation in import structure has also exacerbated the market’s periodic fluctuations. At present, global antimony ore resources are scarce and the grade continues to decline. China’s main importing countries, such as Russia and Myanmar, have limited capacity release. Russia, as China’s core source of imports, has a certain degree of uncertainty in supply stability, while traditional supplying countries such as Myanmar and Thailand may continue to have low import volumes. It is expected that the import volume of antimony concentrate will not significantly increase by 2026, making it difficult to alleviate the shortage of domestic raw materials.
Demand side: Conventional demand tends to be stable, and photovoltaic performance is impressive
In the traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame retardant materials account for about 47%, lead-acid batteries account for about 13%, polyester catalysis accounts for about 10%, and emerging demand accounts for about 31%. At present, emerging demand has become the core incremental engine driving the growth of antimony demand, among which photovoltaic glass is the absolute mainstay. Antimony, as an essential clarifying agent raw material (sodium pyroantimonate) in photovoltaic glass production, is irreplaceable. In the future, the main increment of antimony metal will appear in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: In terms of domestic demand, downstream manufacturing industries such as plastic products and rubber are thriving, and the demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant field is increasing. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of domestic demand for antimony oxide in 2026 will not be too significant, and the overall performance will be relatively stable. In terms of exports: With the gradual recovery of overseas market demand in recent times and the expected marginal adjustment of domestic export control policies, the export volume of antimony oxide is expected to rebound, which can indirectly drive the demand for antimony ingot procurement.
Photovoltaic: With the rapid growth of the domestic photovoltaic industry, the market is also optimistic about the future use of antimony in the photovoltaic industry. At present, the global growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity exceeds 30%, and the penetration rate of double glass modules is over 60%. The production capacity of photovoltaic glass is accelerating, and the proportion of antimony used in the photovoltaic field will rise to over 25%, which will further increase. In the future, the photovoltaic field is expected to become the largest source of demand.
3、 Market forecast for antimony ingots in 2026:
In 2025, the price of 1 # antimony ingots in China will operate within the historical absolute high range, with an average annual price of 180000 to 190000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of over 90%; It climbed to a historical peak of 24000-265000 yuan/ton around April, and fell back to 160000 to 170000 yuan/ton at the end of the year due to the temporary weakening of demand, still significantly higher than the historical cycle price.

In 2026, Business Society predicts that the antimony ingot market will show a short-term upward trend and a long-term central upward trend. The core of the upward trend is the rigid contraction of the supply side and the continuous expansion of emerging demand. The supply-demand gap will further widen, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The domestic mining quota on the supply side continues to tighten, and the release of production capacity in the main production areas of Hunan and Guangxi is restricted; The total import volume of antimony concentrate is difficult to increase, and it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of raw materials in the short term; The concentrated release of stocking demand from demand side photovoltaic glass enterprises, coupled with the repair of antimony oxide exports, has driven the procurement of antimony ingots and increased downstream willingness to replenish inventory.
In the short term, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches from January to March, the release of downstream market stocking demand will bring about a wave of upward trend. Driven by the peak demand for photovoltaics from April to June, market prices will maintain a high and fluctuating trend.
In the long run, the global antimony resource grade is declining and production capacity growth is weak; Emerging demands such as photovoltaics and semiconductors continue to expand, and the supply-demand gap is widening year by year. Scarcity and strategic attributes will drive prices into a long-term upward channel, especially the proportion of high-purity antimony demand will increase, and the antimony ingot market will continue to operate strongly.

1、 Price trend
In 2025, the overall trend of China’s aniline market is characterized by “high opening, low decline, low volatility, and phased rebound”, with an average annual price of 9375 yuan/ton and an average price of 7945 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The annual decline is 15.25%, with a fluctuation range of 8000-9400 yuan/ton. ​
2、 The core driving factors of price fluctuations are:
Supply side: The concentrated release of new production capacity in 2025 is the main reason for price pressure. The 360000 tons/year aniline plant of Wanhua Phase II was put into operation on March 31. Although it initially operated at low load, it had a significant impact on market psychology. At the same time, the overall operating rate of the industry remains at a high level of 78-86%, and supply pressure continues to exist. ​
Cost side: The fluctuation of pure benzene prices directly affects the cost of aniline. The price of pure benzene will fluctuate between 5300-7900 yuan/ton in 2025, with an average price of 6459 yuan/ton from January to September, a decrease of 22.26% compared to the average price in 2024. The significant drop in the price of pure benzene provides downward space for the price of aniline, but also limits the height of price rebound. ​​
Demand side: The weak demand for downstream MDI is the fundamental reason for price pressure. Affected by the sustained downturn in the real estate market, the demand for MDI in the fields of building insulation and furniture has declined, and the MDI operating rate has fallen from its high at the beginning of the year to around 62%, directly affecting the demand for aniline. ​
Sudden event: International events have had a pulsating impact on prices. In the second quarter of 2025, the BASF Ludwigshafen plant explosion caused the price of aniline to temporarily rise to $1480 per ton, an increase of 41%. The March Red Sea shipping crisis led to a 25% increase in aniline freight rates on the Asia Europe route and an 18% increase in landed price fluctuations. Although these external events have a short impact time, they have amplified the magnitude of price fluctuations.
3、 Outlook and Forecast of Aniline Market in 2026
Price trend prediction: It is expected that the price of aniline will fluctuate within the range of 8000-10000 yuan/ton in 2026, with a slight increase of 5-8% in average price compared to 2025. Main judgment criteria: Firstly, the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down, and the expected new production capacity in 2026 is only 25000 tons, far lower than the 540000 tons in 2025; Secondly, cost support has been strengthened. With the stabilization and recovery of crude oil prices, pure benzene prices are expected to rebound, providing cost support for aniline prices; Thirdly, demand is gradually recovering. With the stabilization of the real estate market and the release of downstream replenishment demand, the demand for major downstream products such as MDI is expected to stop falling and rebound. ​: The supply-demand imbalance in China’s aniline market will be alleviated to some extent by 2026, but there will still be pressure. It is expected that the annual production will be about 4.2 million tons, with a demand of about 4 million tons and a supply-demand gap of about 200000 tons, which is significantly narrower than the 350000 tons in 2025. On the supply side, with the gradual withdrawal of outdated production capacity and rational investment by enterprises, the speed of capacity expansion will significantly slow down; On the demand side, driven by stable growth policies, downstream demand is expected to moderately recover. ​

Overall, in 2026, the Chinese aniline market is expected to show a development trend of “steady improvement and intensified differentiation”. Looking ahead to 2026, the main factors affecting the aniline market are still concentrated in changes in supply, demand, and cost. Market prices may show a trend of weak first and then strong, with an expected narrow decline in annual average prices compared to 2025. From the supply side, Nanjing Chemical’s 300000 tons/year and Fujian Wanhua’s 360000 tons/year aniline plants will still be put into operation in 2026, which will promote an increase in aniline supply. On the demand side, the downstream MDI growth rate has slowed down, but there is an increase in demand for additives, and the total demand growth rate may be lower than the supply growth rate. Export variables are still a key indicator affecting market prices.

1、 Price trend
In 2025, the overall DMF market in China will present a situation of oversupply, low price operation, and continuous losses in the industry. DMF prices will show a downward trend, with a 10% decline throughout the year. The highest price point was 4200 yuan/ton in February at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price point was 3800 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price range for the whole year will be between 3900-4100 yuan/ton, fluctuating in the low range throughout the year.
2、 Review of DMF Market in 2025
In 2025, the supply and demand relationship in the DMF market will continue to exceed production capacity, but the total supply will still increase. Downstream industries such as pulp and medicine will have weak demand, resulting in industry profits and widespread losses. The cumulative export volume from January to July has reached 84000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.10%. South Korea, Japan, and India are the main export destinations, and the DMF market supply capacity will significantly improve in 2025. The industry will be in a “capacity oversaturation state” throughout the year. Even if companies actively reduce production to maintain prices, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend of prices. Weak domestic demand will suppress prices, and downstream industries such as polyurethane pulp, electronics, and medicine in China will have weak demand growth. Downstream factories generally adopt a strategy of “replenishment on demand and use as needed”, which cannot provide strong support for the market. Strong exports will slow down the pressure. Driven by the decrease in domestic prices and the growth of overseas demand, The export volume of DMF has been increasing year by year, consuming domestic production capacity and easing inventory pressure.

3、 Industrial chain structure
Upstream: Basic raw materials: Methanol and synthetic ammonia are direct raw materials for the production of dimethylamine (DMA), and price fluctuations have a decisive impact on DMF costs. Enterprises with integrated production capacity of methanol and synthetic ammonia have an absolute advantage in cost control. Midstream: DMF production and supply have mature production processes, with the core being the carbonyl synthesis of dimethylamine and carbon monoxide. The industry concentration is high, and production capacity is mainly distributed in Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places. Currently, it faces serious overcapacity and homogeneous competition, with meager profits. Downstream: diversified application areas, polyurethane synthetic leather/PU Slurry: This is the largest consumer sector, accounting for over 50%. Acrylic spinning, as a solvent for wet spinning, has relatively stable demand. Pharmaceuticals and pesticides, as important organic synthesis reaction solvents, have strong demand rigidity. Emerging fields include electronic chemicals, used as PCB photoresist diluents, requiring electronic grade ultra-high purity, which is the direction with the highest added value and the greatest growth potential. Lithium ion batteries, as a potential choice for electrolyte solvents, are in the research and application exploration stage and may bring demand growth in the future.

4、 Development Trends of DMF Market in 2026:
Overall situation: Currently, there is a severe overcapacity in the domestic DMF market, and the industry’s profit margins continue to be under pressure. The market has entered a period of deep integration.
Price trend: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the low range near the cost line throughout the year, with little expectation of price increases. Downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of strong support for upward momentum.
Supply side trend: In recent years, DMF production capacity has continued to expand, and the low demand has led to the gradual elimination and integration of smaller domestic production capacity. Continued losses may force some high cost and old equipment to permanently exit the market, slowing down the expansion speed of production capacity. Against the backdrop of low efficiency of new production capacity, the decision to add new projects will be more cautious, and the expansion speed is expected to slow down.
Trend on the demand side: The market economy is slowly recovering, with traditional downstream (pulp, leather, etc.) demand dominated by rigid procurement, and emerging fields (such as electronics, lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals) experiencing slow demand. The dependence on exports is increasing. With stable demand in major export markets such as South Korea and India, exports will continue to be an important channel for capacity consumption, and the volume of exports will directly affect the domestic supply-demand balance.
competitive landscape
The domestic DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, mainly in East and North China, supplemented by Central/Northwest China, and matched with downstream polyurethane and electronic chemical clusters.

DMF production capacity
The overall trend of production capacity in 2026 is shifting from “quantity growth” to “structural optimization”, and the growth rate of total production capacity will significantly slow down or even show negative growth. The market has entered a stage of stock adjustment, and continuous losses will force some old facilities with high costs, outdated technology, and small scale to be permanently shut down. The addition of new production capacity in 2026 is relatively small, and the willingness to start new projects in the plan is low, with a high possibility of delay or cancellation. Whether top enterprises maintain or reduce production capacity will have a significant impact on the overall market supply and psychological expectations. In summary, the core theme of DMF production capacity in 2026 is “clearing” rather than “expansion”.
In terms of exports
It is expected that DMF export volume will continue to be an important support for the domestic market in 2026, but its growth rate and stability are facing challenges. Price competitiveness, domestic low-priced sources are still attractive, and the supply chain is stable. China’s mature chemical supply chain can provide stable supply, traditional demand, and manufacturing demand in major destinations such as South Korea, India, and Japan.

In terms of imports
China’s industrial grade DMF import sources: By 2025, China’s industrial grade DMF has achieved complete self-sufficiency in domestic production, with almost no large-scale import demand. Currently, China’s imported DMF is mainly high-end electronic grade, mostly from BASF in Germany, OCI in South Korea, and Mitsubishi Chemical in Japan. The global industrial grade DMF import sources are highly concentrated in China, Vietnam, and the United States. It is expected that the DMF import volume in 2026 will be 28000 to 32000 tons, about -25% year-on-year.
In terms of consumption volume
The overall consumption growth of DMF is expected to face pressure in 2026, with weak domestic traditional demand and a high dependence on exports and emerging industries. The consumption structure is expected to remain stable or slightly shrink in traditional industries (PU pulp, acrylic fiber, pharmaceuticals, etc.), making it difficult to provide incremental new industries (electronic chemicals, lithium battery solvents, etc.). Exports have become a key factor in the consumption structure, and their proportion may further increase.

technical aspects
Leading enterprises: Leveraging their funding and research and development advantages, they will invest heavily in catalyst innovation, intelligent production, and electronic product development, building technological barriers. Featured enterprises may develop expertise in purification technology or customized services for specific high-end products, achieving differentiated survival. Industry impact: Any major breakthrough in key cost reduction technologies (such as new catalysts) may reshape the industry cost curve and accelerate the clearance of outdated production capacity.
5、 Future prospects
In recent years, due to the oversupply of DMF production capacity in China, enterprises have turned their attention to the international market and actively developed export trade. The export volume of DMF is also relatively large. Currently, some foreign DMF production enterprises plan to close their existing production facilities due to environmental protection, production costs, and other factors. This also provides an opportunity for China’s DMF production enterprises to develop foreign trade. It is expected that there will still be a large export volume in China every year by 2026. With the continuous development of downstream DMF products and the increasing demand gap abroad, China’s DMF will still have great development prospects. Overall, DMF is expected to steadily rise in 2026.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of lithium carbonate in 2025 shows a V-shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the price fell all the way to near the cost line, and in the second half, it hit the bottom and rebounded steadily, rising steadily. Can lithium carbonate continue to break through and create new glory in 2026?
（1） Market Review in 2025
In the first half of the year, due to oversupply and increasing production capacity on the supply side, coupled with slow demand growth and tariff policies, the price of lithium carbonate continued to bottom out, falling from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 58000 yuan/ton by the end of June, a decrease of 24%; In the second half of the year, there will be a turning point. Firstly, the tariff war will ease, and there will be a wave of export competition in the energy storage market. Secondly, the anti internal competition policy in the new energy industry points out the elimination of outdated production capacity. Finally, under the supply shock brought by the shutdown of mines represented by Ningde Times, prices will quickly rise, reaching a 40% increase in two months; With the closure and landing of Jianxiawo, market sentiment has subsided and prices have fallen back to around 70000 yuan; Subsequently, in the third quarter, with the surge in demand for energy storage orders, the entire lithium battery industry chain exploded, providing strong support for the price of lithium carbonate, which skyrocketed and exceeded 100000 to the highest level of the year.
（2） Supply side in 2026: Expected to maintain high growth
2.1 Domestic lithium resource development continues to advance and is expected to continue to grow
By 2025, China’s lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 260000 tons. The expected new production capacity of lithium carbonate in China in 2026 is 500000 to 600000 tons.
The main new production capacity of Salt Lake in 2025
Expected to add major new production capacity in the salt lake end by 2026
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2025
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2026
The main new production capacity for lithium recycling and extraction in 2025
The new production capacity of mica end lithium carbonate in 2026 mainly comes from the technological transformation and capacity expansion of existing enterprises rather than new construction projects
2.2 Overseas new production capacity mainly focuses on low-cost projects, promoting the integration of lithium carbonate into low-cost industries
By 2025, the overseas lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 197000 tons, with South American salt lakes contributing about 76000 tons, African lithium mines contributing about 98000 tons, and Australian lithium mines contributing about 54000 tons.
By 2025, Chinese enterprises will participate in investing in key overseas projects
The expected increase in overseas lithium carbonate production capacity by 2026 is 300000 to 350000 tons, mainly from Africa (120000 to 150000 tons), South American salt lakes (70000 to 100000 tons), North America (30000 to 40000 tons), and Australia (50000 to 60000 tons).
Main regional projects
（3） Demand for lithium carbonate in 2026: rapid growth in energy storage
3.1 Slow growth in demand for power batteries
In 2025, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will slow down due to factors such as high penetration rate and high sales base of new energy vehicles, as well as slow overall sales growth of automobiles.
The total installed capacity of power batteries in China from January to November 2025 was 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
The expected installed capacity of power batteries in China in 2026 is between 680-800GWh, with a year-on-year increase of about 15-25%.

3.2 Rapid growth in energy storage demand
In 2025, China’s energy storage industry will achieve a historic breakthrough, with both the number of recruits and installed capacity setting records. The total newly installed capacity for the year was 151 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%. By 2025, the domestic energy storage recruitment volume will soar to 364GWh, an annual increase of 261%
By 2026, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will reach 194-265GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30-60%
3.3 Overseas energy storage market continues to experience high growth
In 2025, the global energy storage market will add 247 GWh of installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 23%. It is expected to add 360 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
（4） In 2025, there will be a trend of destocking in China, and by 2026, there may be a tight balance
In 2025, the Chinese lithium carbonate market will present a pattern of “surplus in the first half of the year and shortage in the second half”, with a basic balance or slight shortage of supply and demand throughout the year (-3 to+10000 tons), and inventory will continue to deplete by about 20000 to 50000 tons. It is expected to further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance by 2026.
（5） Price Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, under the conditions of high supply and explosive demand, it is expected that China’s lithium carbonate will further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance, and the price center will move up to 100000-150000 yuan/ton.

Market Overview: Prices continue to decline (12.10-12.24)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3% in mid December. Under the combined effects of increasing supply pressure, weakened cost support, and flat demand, the market has continued its downward trend since December.
Supply side: Device restart, supply pressure becomes core negative
The significant increase in supply is the fundamental reason for the current market turn. Since December, devices that were previously shut down or undergoing maintenance have been restarted and produced at full capacity. Faced with an increase in supply, some production enterprises have accumulated inventory. In order to promote sales and reduce inventory pressure, they have adopted price reduction strategies, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market and the downward inertia of prices.
Demand side: Strong demand is dominant, with low willingness to buy
Downstream demand has failed to provide effective support to the market. The main downstream industries such as polycarbonate and pharmaceutical solid light mostly maintain production through essential procurement, and generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, cautious in entering the market for procurement. When the price is in a downward channel, the downstream mentality of “buying up and not buying down” is obvious, only maintaining small orders and replenishing on demand, unable to digest the rapidly increasing supply, resulting in difficulty in increasing market transactions.
Cost side: Raw material prices decline, support level shifts downwards
As of December 24th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane, the main raw material, was 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88% within this ten day period. The synchronous decline in raw material costs has significantly weakened the cost support for dimethyl carbonate. In the context of the already prominent supply-demand contradiction, the downward shift of the cost center has opened up greater downward space for product prices, weakening the ability of production enterprises to raise prices.
Outlook for the future: The supply-demand game continues, and the market may continue to experience weak fluctuations
In mid December, the dimethyl carbonate market continued its clear downward trend under the triple pressure of supply recovery, flat demand, and cost collapse. Among them, the rapid recovery of the supply side is the most core contradiction that has led to the current market turn and sustained downturn. Looking ahead to the future, whether the market can stop falling and stabilize depends on whether the situation of oversupply can be alleviated through proactive production cuts by enterprises. Until clear signals of supply contraction appear, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern.