Recently, the lithium carbonate market has experienced a strong upward trend in the early stage, ushering in a phase of correction. The price has dropped from the highest of 200000 yuan/ton this year to 177000 yuan/ton on May 26th, a month on month increase of 2.91% and a year-on-year increase of 183%. Although the price has fallen, there has been a significant increase in spot transactions, and the supply and demand fundamentals still support the strong price trend.
The contraction trend of the supply side remains unchanged, while variables are frequent
Lithium ore spot prices continue to be tight, with large lithium salt factories accelerating delivery and locking in raw materials for the third quarter ahead of schedule. Port inventories continue to deplete and are now at historic lows. Although lithium mines in Zimbabwe have been launched, it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of spot goods in the short term. Coupled with the delay in resuming production of domestic ore bodies, supply side disturbances still exist. At the same time, mines such as Bald Hill in Australia launched a resumption plan, breaking the market’s unanimous expectation of a continued shortage of lithium resources, and market sentiment immediately adjusted.
The peak season characteristics on the demand side are prominent, and the industrial chain is imbalanced
The demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets continued to improve from May to June, with downstream production increasing month on month. Battery companies concentrated on purchasing at low prices, driving a surge in spot transactions. The industry expects that the supply and demand of lithium carbonate will continue to deplete in the second quarter, with demand growth rate higher than supply growth rate, and the fundamentals maintaining a strong pattern.
With the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices, the pressure on downstream industrial chains has surged
In terms of power batteries, the cost of lithium carbonate has increased by about 8000-12000 yuan per vehicle; If transmitted to the terminal, the car price needs to be increased by 15000-25000 yuan. Starting from March this year, many new energy vehicle brands such as BYD, Tesla, Xiaomi, Changan Qiyuan, NIO, and Ideal have coincidentally raised their new car prices/pre-sale prices or tightened terminal discounts, covering multiple main models such as pure electric and hybrid, ranging from 1000 yuan to 20000 yuan.
In terms of energy storage, when the lithium price is 200000 yuan/ton, the system cost increases by 16.5% -23.1%, while the industry average gross profit margin is only 18%, and profits are basically swallowed up. This dilemma has been exposed in the wave of abandoned bids for projects in various regions. According to incomplete statistics, more than 200 energy storage projects have been cut off nationwide since 2026, and at least 6GWh projects have had their bids suspended.
Overall, the price of lithium carbonate has surged in the early stage, making it susceptible to market sentiment disturbances and frequent supply side variables, which may continue to adjust. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
As of May 22nd, the reference average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid market in China is 9700 yuan/ton, which is 12.53% higher than the reference average price of 8620 yuan/ton on May 12th.
2、 Market analysis
In the past ten days, the market price of phosphoric acid has shown a strong upward trend. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and under cost pressure, phosphoric acid continues to rise along with the price of raw materials. The operating rate of the enterprise is stable, and downstream procurement is in high demand. The main focus is on individual negotiations for each transaction. At present, the market is mainly optimistic.
market conditions
As of May 22nd, the market price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China is around 9500-10000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 9600-10200 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In the past ten days, the price trend of yellow phosphorus in the market has been strong and upward, with a production rate of about 60% in the Yunnan Guizhou region. At present, the market supply is tight, and manufacturers are mainly pushing prices. As the price of yellow phosphorus rises at a high level, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly seek low prices for transactions. As of May 22nd, the yellow phosphorus market in Yunnan Guizhou region has been operating at a high level, with a reference price of around 33962 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.
3、 Future forecast
Recently, the trend of the phosphoric acid market has been dominant. The rise in costs has driven up the price of phosphoric acid, and the market’s mentality of buying up rather than buying down has increased. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise strongly.

This week (5.18-5.22), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 16550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.21%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

On the supply side, most magnesium smelting enterprises in the main production areas maintain a regular production pace, and the overall supply of raw magnesium is still relatively loose. At present, some enterprises have started to arrange summer maintenance and production reduction, and the supply side of magnesium is expected to gradually tighten in the future. This week, due to the slowdown in market transaction pace, some enterprises in the main production areas have seen a slight increase in inventory, but overall it is still in the middle range of the same period in history. The attitude of big factories to support prices remains firm, with a focus on controlling quantity and prioritizing meeting long order demands; A few small and medium-sized manufacturers under financial pressure have weakened their confidence in rising prices in the light market situation, and occasional low-priced selling situations have occurred.

On the demand side, the overall market operation is stable, and the demand in traditional metallurgy, desulfurization and other fields is basically flat, with no significant fluctuations observed; The demand for magnesium alloy processing is steadily released, and the performance of orders for lightweight new energy vehicles and structural components for electric two wheelers is particularly outstanding. However, due to the mentality of “buying up and not buying down”, downstream enterprises have low enthusiasm for replenishing inventory and generally adopt the operation mode of on-demand procurement and on-demand ordering. The export performance is also stable, with a year-on-year increase of 5.68% in China’s magnesium product exports in April, continuing the growth trend since the first quarter.

Raw material end

The prices of raw and auxiliary materials remain stable with a moderate to strong trend, and the production end of Lantan continues to be mired in losses. The current market price of magnesium has dropped to near the cost line of most enterprises, and the industry’s loss area continues to expand. The space for further price decline has been completely blocked.
comprehensive forecast
The short-term technical side sends a bottom signal of “oversold at a low level, brewing a rebound”, while the supply and demand fundamentals – high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation – do not support a significant rebound, forming a game pattern of resonance decline and divergence rise between the two. The simultaneous action of these two forces may lead to a complex rhythm of “slowing down the decline speed – sideways oscillation – testing the low again” in the price.

In May 2026, the domestic nitrile rubber market continued to decline at a high level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 21, the price was at 20200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.11% from 22225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The cost side market has fallen from a high level, weakening support for nitrile rubber. As of May 21st, the price of butadiene was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from 10533 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The tight supply situation has eased to some extent. Since May, the operating rate of domestic nitrile rubber plants has remained at 70% -75%, with early maintenance units gradually resuming production and spot supply gradually easing; The easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a slight increase in the volume of imported rubber from Japan and South Korea compared to the previous period. Port inventories have slowly accumulated, easing the tight domestic spot market situation; The manufacturer’s inventory is low, and the trader’s inventory has slightly increased. The overall inventory pressure is controllable, and there is no obvious risk of inventory accumulation.
The weak demand has a bearish impact on nitrile rubber. Although the increase in penetration rate of new energy vehicles has driven certain demand in downstream industries such as seals and rubber hoses, the demand for traditional fuel vehicles is sluggish, and the overall recovery is slow. Large transactions of nitrile rubber are rare. On the one hand, the engineering and industrial products industry has weak domestic demand, and on the other hand, exports are under pressure due to India’s anti-dumping policies, resulting in limited demand growth. Overall, in May, the downstream demand for nitrile rubber was mainly small orders, and high price acceptance was weak.
As of May 20th, the nitrile rubber spread index showed a trend from strong to weak since mid April, and continued to weaken after falling below the 0 axis. Although it briefly recovered in early May, it turned downwards again in mid May, and the current negative direction has expanded, restarting the downward trend. Combining supply and demand with cost, raw material support has weakened, demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a weakly balanced pattern. Short term prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise, with the center of gravity shifting downwards in the medium term and operating under pressure throughout the year.
From the fundamental perspective of the industrial chain, the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile are fluctuating at a high level with a narrow range, and cost support is still present; But downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement as the main focus, increasing pressure on manufacturers to ship, and prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3487.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the early week price of 3493.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 3.29%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting loose spot availability of fluorite
1. Concentrated mining volume increases the operating rate in the main production areas
Recently, the resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has accelerated, and the core production areas in the north have gradually increased their operating load due to the warming weather; The safety and environmental protection inspections in major production areas such as Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia have slowed down, the operating rate has increased, and the supply of spot goods has increased. Newly discovered fluorite mines in Sichuan and Gansu have strengthened expectations of loose supply in the medium to long term, leading to a slight decline in the fluorite market.
2. Normalization of industry regulation makes it difficult to add new mines
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions measures has further compressed the market circulation of goods and suppressed the decline of fluorite raw materials.
3. Maintain high import volume to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
The domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%. With the end of the rainy season in Mongolia, the arrival volume in April and May increased by 40% compared to the previous period, and the price was 300-500 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic fluorite. Low arsenic (≤ 0.0005%) fluorite has zero tariffs and obvious import cost advantages. It is concentrated in ports in East and North China, and Mongolia’s fluorite imports remain at a high level, driving down the domestic fluorite market price.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, while rigid demand is the main source of procurement
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer serious losses. The procurement of essential needs is the main focus, which significantly reduces the price of upstream fluorite. Downstream refrigerants (R22/R32, etc.) are affected by the flat demand for quotas and household appliances, and the operating rate is difficult to exceed 50%. Downstream hydrogen fluoride companies tend to be cautious about purchasing fluorite, adopting a strategy of on-demand replenishment and batch replenishment, and only conducting phased purchases. Conventional procurement plans have generally slowed down, which has led to a decline in the fluorite market. However, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow, and the growth rate of demand for products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and fluorine-containing polymers is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices and limiting the decline of fluorite market.
Market forecast: Due to the warming weather in northern production areas and the accelerated resumption of mining production, some manufacturers in the domestic fluorite market have high inventory; The trend is that the operating rate of downstream fluorine chemical industry has not changed much, and downstream continues to observe, buying up instead of buying down to strengthen the downward trend. It is expected that the price of fluorite may slightly decrease, but the cost inversion is obvious, and the decline of fluorite is limited.