According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of lithium carbonate in 2025 shows a V-shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the price fell all the way to near the cost line, and in the second half, it hit the bottom and rebounded steadily, rising steadily. Can lithium carbonate continue to break through and create new glory in 2026?
（1） Market Review in 2025
In the first half of the year, due to oversupply and increasing production capacity on the supply side, coupled with slow demand growth and tariff policies, the price of lithium carbonate continued to bottom out, falling from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 58000 yuan/ton by the end of June, a decrease of 24%; In the second half of the year, there will be a turning point. Firstly, the tariff war will ease, and there will be a wave of export competition in the energy storage market. Secondly, the anti internal competition policy in the new energy industry points out the elimination of outdated production capacity. Finally, under the supply shock brought by the shutdown of mines represented by Ningde Times, prices will quickly rise, reaching a 40% increase in two months; With the closure and landing of Jianxiawo, market sentiment has subsided and prices have fallen back to around 70000 yuan; Subsequently, in the third quarter, with the surge in demand for energy storage orders, the entire lithium battery industry chain exploded, providing strong support for the price of lithium carbonate, which skyrocketed and exceeded 100000 to the highest level of the year.
（2） Supply side in 2026: Expected to maintain high growth
2.1 Domestic lithium resource development continues to advance and is expected to continue to grow
By 2025, China’s lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 260000 tons. The expected new production capacity of lithium carbonate in China in 2026 is 500000 to 600000 tons.
The main new production capacity of Salt Lake in 2025
Expected to add major new production capacity in the salt lake end by 2026
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2025
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2026
The main new production capacity for lithium recycling and extraction in 2025
The new production capacity of mica end lithium carbonate in 2026 mainly comes from the technological transformation and capacity expansion of existing enterprises rather than new construction projects
2.2 Overseas new production capacity mainly focuses on low-cost projects, promoting the integration of lithium carbonate into low-cost industries
By 2025, the overseas lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 197000 tons, with South American salt lakes contributing about 76000 tons, African lithium mines contributing about 98000 tons, and Australian lithium mines contributing about 54000 tons.
By 2025, Chinese enterprises will participate in investing in key overseas projects
The expected increase in overseas lithium carbonate production capacity by 2026 is 300000 to 350000 tons, mainly from Africa (120000 to 150000 tons), South American salt lakes (70000 to 100000 tons), North America (30000 to 40000 tons), and Australia (50000 to 60000 tons).
Main regional projects
（3） Demand for lithium carbonate in 2026: rapid growth in energy storage
3.1 Slow growth in demand for power batteries
In 2025, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will slow down due to factors such as high penetration rate and high sales base of new energy vehicles, as well as slow overall sales growth of automobiles.
The total installed capacity of power batteries in China from January to November 2025 was 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
The expected installed capacity of power batteries in China in 2026 is between 680-800GWh, with a year-on-year increase of about 15-25%.

3.2 Rapid growth in energy storage demand
In 2025, China’s energy storage industry will achieve a historic breakthrough, with both the number of recruits and installed capacity setting records. The total newly installed capacity for the year was 151 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%. By 2025, the domestic energy storage recruitment volume will soar to 364GWh, an annual increase of 261%
By 2026, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will reach 194-265GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30-60%
3.3 Overseas energy storage market continues to experience high growth
In 2025, the global energy storage market will add 247 GWh of installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 23%. It is expected to add 360 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
（4） In 2025, there will be a trend of destocking in China, and by 2026, there may be a tight balance
In 2025, the Chinese lithium carbonate market will present a pattern of “surplus in the first half of the year and shortage in the second half”, with a basic balance or slight shortage of supply and demand throughout the year (-3 to+10000 tons), and inventory will continue to deplete by about 20000 to 50000 tons. It is expected to further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance by 2026.
（5） Price Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, under the conditions of high supply and explosive demand, it is expected that China’s lithium carbonate will further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance, and the price center will move up to 100000-150000 yuan/ton.

Market Overview: Prices continue to decline (12.10-12.24)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3% in mid December. Under the combined effects of increasing supply pressure, weakened cost support, and flat demand, the market has continued its downward trend since December.
Supply side: Device restart, supply pressure becomes core negative
The significant increase in supply is the fundamental reason for the current market turn. Since December, devices that were previously shut down or undergoing maintenance have been restarted and produced at full capacity. Faced with an increase in supply, some production enterprises have accumulated inventory. In order to promote sales and reduce inventory pressure, they have adopted price reduction strategies, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market and the downward inertia of prices.
Demand side: Strong demand is dominant, with low willingness to buy
Downstream demand has failed to provide effective support to the market. The main downstream industries such as polycarbonate and pharmaceutical solid light mostly maintain production through essential procurement, and generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, cautious in entering the market for procurement. When the price is in a downward channel, the downstream mentality of “buying up and not buying down” is obvious, only maintaining small orders and replenishing on demand, unable to digest the rapidly increasing supply, resulting in difficulty in increasing market transactions.
Cost side: Raw material prices decline, support level shifts downwards
As of December 24th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane, the main raw material, was 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88% within this ten day period. The synchronous decline in raw material costs has significantly weakened the cost support for dimethyl carbonate. In the context of the already prominent supply-demand contradiction, the downward shift of the cost center has opened up greater downward space for product prices, weakening the ability of production enterprises to raise prices.
Outlook for the future: The supply-demand game continues, and the market may continue to experience weak fluctuations
In mid December, the dimethyl carbonate market continued its clear downward trend under the triple pressure of supply recovery, flat demand, and cost collapse. Among them, the rapid recovery of the supply side is the most core contradiction that has led to the current market turn and sustained downturn. Looking ahead to the future, whether the market can stop falling and stabilize depends on whether the situation of oversupply can be alleviated through proactive production cuts by enterprises. Until clear signals of supply contraction appear, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

At the end of December, the domestic PS market was mainly weak and consolidated. Most spot prices of certain brands have limited fluctuations. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 7450 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase or decrease of -1.32%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the operating rate of the domestic polystyrene industry has slightly rebounded. Some units of enterprises such as Guangxi Petrochemical and Lianyungang Petrochemical are gradually returning, and the overall industry load has been narrowly increased to 60%. The supply of genuine materials is abundant, with only a few models experiencing tight supply. The current inventory position is relatively controllable, and there are still expectations of relaxed market supply. Overall, the supply side’s support for PS is average.
Cost factor: Recently, the styrene market has fallen more than it has risen. The raw material pure benzene was concentrated at the port in the first half of the month. Current port inventory accumulation. And crude oil support weakened, while double bearish dragged pure benzene to maintain weak operation. The styrene seller camp tends to operate in a decentralized manner. Downstream 3S production has been reduced, suppressing demand. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
In terms of demand, the profitability of terminal enterprises continues to be sluggish, and the downstream electrical shell industry of PS has not seen any improvement in production scheduling, with a generally low year-on-year trend. In addition, there is no expected increase in terminal load in the future. The downstream demand for PS is high and difficult to meet, with a small number of buyers following up. The overall stocking logic maintains the need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply slows down. Merchants’ inventory positions are deadlocked, the market maintains a cautious atmosphere, and trading momentum is average. Overall, the demand side provides average support for the PS market.
Future forecast
At the end of December, the domestic PS market fluctuated weakly. The production load of the aggregation plant is stable with small increases, and the balance of consumer demand is mainly broad. Business analysts believe that the upstream styrene target range has turned high and fallen, while the demand side of PS lacks positive guidance in the short term, and it is expected that the market will continue to consolidate.

Recently (12.1-12.22), the domestic EVA market has been operating weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% from 10233 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The demand for downstream photovoltaics and foam production is relatively weak; The market expectation for the production of new EVA devices in China is bearish; The price of raw material vinyl acetate has significantly increased, which has to some extent slowed down the downward trend of the EVA market. The lack of favorable market supply and demand has supported the weak consolidation of the EVA market.
Recently (12.1-12.22), EVA production has started at around 8.5%, and the supply pressure in the EVA market still exists. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene slightly decreased, while the price of vinyl acetate significantly increased, and the cost faced EVA support strengthened. As of December 22, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from 6200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 22, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% from 5500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (12.1-12.22), there has been a lack of significant positive support for the demand in the EVA market, with weak overall new orders in downstream photovoltaic and foam industries, and low price sources being the main source of inquiries and transactions; In addition, the recent Lianhong integration project has made key progress: the 1.3 million tons/year methanol to olefin (MTO) plant and the 200000 tons/year ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) plant have been successfully put into operation with a single feeding. The introduction of new production capacity creates negative expectations for the market. The EVA market is running weakly.
In the future forecast, overall EVA cost support is strong, but downstream demand in the photovoltaic and foam industries is weak. In addition, with new EVA devices put into operation, the overall fundamentals of EVA are weak. It is expected that the weak consolidation of EVA spot market will be the main trend in the later period.

On Friday, December 19th, PET polyester bottle flakes rebounded strongly, opening high and moving high. At the end of the week, they significantly strengthened due to cost push, with an average sales price of 5772 yuan/ton for PET The main futures were linked at 5730 yuan/ton (+1.76%).
On the cost side: Crude oil and PX are strong, PTA is rising, and factory quotes are increasing by 50-80 yuan/ton, ensuring smooth cost transmission.
Supply side: Mainstream devices are stable, new devices are being tested, there is ample stock available, and inventory pressure remains.
On the demand side: downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and cautious trading.
Business Society believes that in the short term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, with a range of 5700-5780 yuan/ton; Cost support is still in place, but loose supply and off-season demand will constrain growth. Pay attention to fluctuations in crude oil, PTA, and downstream procurement pace.