As of April 30, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan or 10.51% from April 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In April, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of n-butanol quickly rose, reaching a high point of 8933 yuan/ton for the month. However, due to insufficient support, the high price was short-lived, and the center of gravity of n-butanol gradually declined, falling to a low point at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The trend of n-butanol prices rising and falling in April is essentially a direct reflection of the rapid shift from tight balance to loose supply and demand pattern. The following is a phased breakdown of the impact of supply and demand:
Early April (1-8): Tight supply+rigid demand support, price surge
Supply side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side of n-butanol showed a phase of contraction, with low market inventory, multiple domestic units undergoing maintenance or operating at low loads, low industry operating rates, and limited market spot circulation. Due to the support of export orders from some mainstream factories, the domestic sales source has further decreased, and the factory inventory is at a low level, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices.
On the demand side: the market is expected to stock up during peak seasons, downstream stocks will be replenished at low prices, and the market will increase volume in response to temporary demand. Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and acrylic esters are expected to experience the “Silver Four” peak season, coupled with low prices at the beginning of the month. Downstream enterprises are concentrated in buying inventory at low prices, resulting in active market inquiries and transactions.
Mid to late April (9-30): The supply-demand contradiction becomes apparent
Supply side: The n-butanol maintenance unit has resumed production, and the overall supply pressure in the market has rebounded. The devices that underwent early maintenance have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rapidly rebounded. The market supply of goods has increased, and the tight supply pattern in the early stage has begun to ease. Some new devices are expected to be put into operation, and the market is increasingly concerned about the increase in supply in the later stage.
Demand side: Short term demand ends, downstream procurement pace slows down. After a brief increase in downstream demand for “gold, silver, and four” materials, the demand for raw materials in industries such as plasticizers and coatings slowed down, and large-scale inventory replenishment behavior decreased. In addition, with price increases, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials began to emerge.
Future forecast
Supply and demand direction analysis
In April, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The trend of the market is essentially a manifestation of the supply recovery speed far exceeding the demand recovery speed. Downstream demand lacks incremental growth overall, and it is difficult for essential procurement to digest new supply. The market has entered a downward channel of “strong supply and weak demand”.
Entering May, it is expected that the market will experience a range adjustment, and whether the demand side can steadily release it still needs to be monitored.

In April, the overall performance of the domestic acetone market showed a clear trend of “first suppression and then rebound”, with price trends divided into three stages: high-level decline, continuous downward exploration, and bottoming out rebound. The core driving logic gradually shifted from the dual suppression of weak costs and weak demand in the early stage to a coordinated force pattern of supply contraction, cost recovery, and demand improvement. Market sentiment also gradually shifted from cautious observation before the holiday to stabilization and improvement.
Downward phase (mid to high): Triple bearish pressure, prices continue to decline
-Loose cost support: The international crude oil price correction has driven a significant decline in upstream pure benzene prices. As the core raw material for acetone production, the decline in pure benzene prices has directly weakened the cost support for phenol ketone production, and production enterprises have insufficient ability to support prices, becoming the core incentive for price decline. At the same time, the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry remains high, and the supply is relatively abundant, further exacerbating the pressure on the cost side.
-Continued weak demand: The overall production of downstream industries is insufficient, with sluggish demand in the main downstream MMA and bisphenol A industries, and poor transmission of demand in the end market. The MMA industry has been dragged down by demand from the terminal coatings and plastics industries, resulting in a decline in operating rates and a reduction in procurement volume; Although the bisphenol A industry maintains a certain operating rate, the recovery of the terminal real estate and home appliance industries is weak, and the inventory of finished products in enterprises is high. The willingness to purchase acetone is not strong, and the market presents a situation of “price but no market”. The demand side cannot form effective support.
-Market mentality cautious: Prior to the May Day Labor Day holiday, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among businesses, and traders mainly focused on shipping to avoid the risk of price drops after the holiday. There was a large bargaining space for actual orders, and overall market trading was weak; Downstream enterprises adopt a strategy of “purchasing as needed and taking as needed”, unwilling to replenish inventory in bulk, further dragging down market prices.
（2） Rebound stage (late stage): Triple positive synergy, price bottoming out and rebounding
-Supply side contraction: Multiple sets of phenol ketone units are undergoing centralized maintenance or load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the total supply of acetone in China and a 2.5 percentage point decrease in the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry; At the same time, there is insufficient supply of imported goods, and the import volume in April has significantly decreased compared to March. Port inventory continues to deplete, and spot circulation is tight. The supply-demand pattern is gradually improving, laying a solid foundation for price rebound.
-Cost side rebound: International crude oil prices have rebounded slightly, driving domestic pure benzene prices to stabilize and gradually rebound. The supporting role of phenol ketone production costs has become more prominent, and production enterprises have increased their willingness to raise prices, leading to a linked rise in market quotations.
-Marginal improvement in demand: The downstream bisphenol A and MMA industries have entered a rigid replenishment cycle, with a slight release of terminal procurement demand; At the same time, traders and production enterprises joined forces to raise prices, and market sentiment gradually improved. Some downstream enterprises were concerned about the continued rise in prices and began to replenish inventory in small quantities, further boosting price recovery.
From the perspective of Business Society, the acetone market is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term (early May), with continued supply and maintenance, supported costs, and downstream demand for replenishment; Price attention should be focused on breaking through the range of 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and if demand is insufficient, it should return to 7200-7500 yuan/ton for consolidation. Long term attention should be paid to equipment maintenance, pure benzene trends, and terminal demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has fallen, with an average market price of 16750 yuan/ton as of now, and an average price of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.01%.
This month’s market analysis
The domestic magnesium price shows an inverted V-shaped trend of “first rising and then falling, rising and falling”. At the beginning of April, the cash price including tax of 99.90% magnesium ingots in Shaanxi Province was consolidating around 17400-17500 yuan/ton. Since then, bullish sentiment has surged, and manufacturers’ reluctance to sell has become prominent. Coupled with rising speculative demand, magnesium prices have shown a step up trend, reaching a stage high of 17550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Entering mid to late April, the fear of high sentiment drove a slowdown in terminal procurement, and manufacturers’ panic shipments led to a continuous decline in market prices. Supported by the pre May Day stocking sentiment at the end of the month, prices slightly rebounded.
Supply and demand side
The supply side was the core factor that put pressure on magnesium prices in April. Production data shows that in March, the original magnesium production increased by about 25100 tons year-on-year, and the magnesium alloy production increased by about 22900 tons year-on-year, with a supply growth rate significantly exceeding expectations. Entering April, driven by early profits, the operating rate of smelters in major production areas continues to rise, and the pace of resuming production in Xinjiang and other places accelerates. The operating rate of primary magnesium smelters nationwide may once again reach a historical high. As a result, the inventory on the manufacturer’s end continues to accumulate, mainly relying on long-term contract orders for delivery. Some factories with high inventory pressure are willing to lower prices to ship. The rapid expansion of the supply side has significantly suppressed the upward trend of magnesium prices.
On the demand side, there is a dual dilemma of weak and stable domestic demand and external demand pressure. In terms of domestic demand, although emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robots have brought incremental expectations, it is difficult to fully offset the weakness of traditional demand in the short term – downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and order follow-up is slow. Most downstream industries expect magnesium prices to continue to weaken, and their willingness to take orders is low. At the same time, the customs continue to tighten their supervision on the export of magnesium products, and the export of magnesium containing substances requires quality inspection reports to prove that they do not belong to the category of dual-use items. The export risks of foreign trade traders have significantly increased, and the pace of document submission has slowed down. Although the weak support on the export side is not enough to shake the overall supply and demand pattern, it further exacerbates the bearish sentiment in the market.
Future forecast
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and stable consolidation pattern in May, with an expected operating range of 16400-17000 yuan/ton.

On April 27th, the price of isooctanol was 8933.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 3.60% compared to 9233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The cumulative increase from 6700 yuan/ton at the beginning of March still reached 36.32%, and it is in the warning range of over inflation within one year. In April, the isooctanol market showed an overall pattern of “high volatility, first strong and then weak”. At the beginning of the month, it continued to rise strongly to the peak of the year in March, and then gradually retreated due to the impact of cost decline and supply-demand stalemate. The price fluctuated around the range of 9000-9500 yuan/ton throughout the month, and remained at the high level of the year as a whole. The core was dominated by the linkage between crude oil and propylene and changes in the supply and demand pattern. At the same time, starting from mid April, the average price of Shengyi Society moved downward, and the isooctanol market showed a clear downward trend.
Cost side: crude oil+propylene linkage, support first strong and then weak
4.1-4.7: The futures price of propylene is running at a high level. On April 7th, the main closing price of propylene reached 9447 yuan/ton. Coupled with the support of geopolitical factors in the previous crude oil price, the strong cost support of isooctanol pushed the price higher. With the implementation of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, crude oil prices plummeted and propylene prices simultaneously retreated. On April 27th, the main closing price of propylene dropped to 8360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.51% from April 7th. The cost support for isooctanol weakened, and prices were under pressure and retreated. In addition, the propylene to isooctanol ratio index remained high, further increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.
Isooctanol supply and demand are both weak
In April, isooctanol enterprises continued to operate at a high level, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased. At the end of the month, the operating rate dropped to about 80%, and the supply of isooctanol decreased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs. In April, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the operating load of DOP decreased from 66% in March to 55% in April, resulting in a decrease in operating capacity. The demand for isooctanol by plasticizers decreased, and the upward momentum of isooctanol weakened. The supply and demand of isooctanol are both weak.
Future prospects
On the cost side, crude oil prices are unlikely to rebound significantly due to the impact of the US Iran ceasefire, propylene prices are likely to remain volatile, and the cost support for isooctanol continues to weaken; On the supply and demand side, the production of isooctanol and plasticizer enterprises has both decreased, and the supply and demand are weak, making it difficult to support price increases. Overall, with cost reduction and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 20th to 24th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell weakly, with an average price of 19600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 19066 yuan/ton on April 24th, a decrease of 2.72% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 27.54%. During the week, major factories experienced a tight supply of goods, but the export market remained strong. Downstream demand has entered the market, with a majority of small transactions, and traders are lowering prices to sell their goods.
Supply side: On April 20th, some MDI units of BASF Shanghai were shut down for maintenance, with a duration of about 1-2 weeks. The MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea (200000 tons/year) has a routine maintenance plan starting from early April, with a duration of about one month.
On the cost side: During the week, the price of pure benzene fluctuated upwards, downstream entered the market at a low price, pure benzene production was low, and maintenance was further intensified. Prices decreased, buying gas increased, and demand increased. The factory has raised prices, and demand has been suppressed. Recently, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and the pure benzene market is expected to operate strongly in the short term.
Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with fewer inquiries and pressure from intermediaries on their shipments, resulting in price reductions.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is under downward pressure, but rigid support on the cost side still exists. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will experience a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.