According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde was 5062.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde was 5037.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 1.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.00%.

Upstream methanol situation: The methanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to operate at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishes inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The domestic methanol market situation is mainly sorted out.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a slight decline, with downstream demand maintaining procurement and polyformaldehyde manufacturers shipping normally. Business Society polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 6, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7533 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as December 1, 2023. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 567 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from the beginning of December (12.01-12.06), the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a stable consolidation and operation trend. At the beginning of the month, the supply and demand side of the butanone market was relatively calm, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market was relatively quiet. Downstream demand continued to be weak, and the overall inventory of downstream remained tight. Some butanone suppliers adjusted prices narrowly based on their own inventory situation, and the overall market change was not significant. As of December 6th, the domestic butanone market price was around 7100-7700 yuan/ton, and the high-end price was around 7800 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of butanone on the exchange is weak, and the overall supply and demand transmission on the exchange is slightly deadlocked. Business Society butanone data analyst predicts that in the short term, the butanone market will mostly be weak with slight adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

The price of ethylene oxide decreased in November

In November, the price of ethylene oxide decreased by 5.88%. According to data from Business Society, as of November 30th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 6250 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6500 yuan/ton.

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is generally affected by terminal demand, but the recent demand is weak, which generally supports the price of ethylene oxide.

Loose raw material prices and weakened cost support

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

Stable price of ethylene oxide in December

Short term crude oil decline, weak and stable ethylene prices, and weak cost side of ethylene oxide; The average demand for downstream products has led to a recent decline in the price of ethylene oxide. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that in December, with the expected recovery of cost, the price of ethylene oxide will stop falling and stabilize, with a high probability of sideways fluctuations.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 4, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14320 yuan/ton. Compared with November 26 (organic silicon DMC reference 14500 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.24%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.26-12.04), the overall market situation of domestic organic silicon DMC has shown a weak downward trend. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC continues to be weak, and the support provided by the demand side for organic silicon DMC is limited. At the end of November, the focus of the domestic organic silicon DMC market has been continuously adjusted downwards. The price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong region has dropped to around 14000 yuan/ton, and the price of organic silicon DMC in other regions has also dropped to around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. As of December 4th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is relatively light, and downstream stocking is relatively cautious. As we enter December, the organic silicon DMC market is generally stable and consolidating, but the cost side still puts some pressure on the market. The continuous downward risk of the organic silicon DMC market is relatively small, and the upcoming year-end stocking stage also gives the market some confidence. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly stabilize and consolidate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7487.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from the initial price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 12.43%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a current operating rate of over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient, coupled with normal production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fluctuates at a low level, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market, causing a slight decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: The price of ortho benzene has declined, and the cost support is insufficient

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% from the beginning of the week’s price of 7800 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site equipment is stable. In November, the crude oil price trend fell, the mixed xylene price fell, and the raw material price fell. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined, which has brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market. The price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has declined.

Demand side: DOP market focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market prices have fluctuated and declined, with prices as of the weekend at 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the week at 11475 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, with plasticizer manufacturers operating at low loads and weak downstream demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 11400-11500 yuan/ton, and downstream plasticizer prices have slightly decreased. Overall demand has not improved, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is average, The market price of phthalic anhydride remained weak this week.

Looking at the future market: In recent times, crude oil prices have fluctuated, and the price trend of ortho xylene has slightly declined. However, the downstream plasticizer market has been mainly volatile in recent times. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen to the bottom space, and it is expected that the market price of ortho xylene may rise in the future.