According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has been declining since June, with an average price of 16333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15933 yuan/ton on June 19th, a decrease of 2.45% during the cycle. In June, the market was mainly dominated by supply and demand. Starting from the beginning of the month, major factories in Shanghai completed maintenance and began to restart. Fujian Wanhua began maintenance on the 5th. The coexistence of market maintenance and restart, relatively sufficient supply of goods, coupled with weak performance on the demand side, has led to a gradual decline in the aggregated MDI market due to strong supply and weak demand. Starting from mid June, large factories in the north have reduced their operations, showing a clear willingness to raise prices. The market has stopped falling and pushed up, but due to demand constraints, the increase is limited.
On the supply side, BASF and Huntsman in Shanghai have completed maintenance and restarted production. Fujian Wanhua’s 800000 tons/year MDI unit and 360000 tons/year TDI unit were shut down for maintenance on June 5th, lasting approximately 45 days. The MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea (200000 tons/year) will be shut down for maintenance at the end of May, with a duration of approximately one month.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is constrained by demand and faces significant resistance to further growth. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate narrowly in the short term and closely monitor the progress of enterprise maintenance and changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the acrylic acid market saw favorable regional supply and overall operation remained stable and upward. On the supply side, some manufacturers have adjusted their production plans to cope with changes in market demand; On the demand side, downstream users also exhibit a certain degree of flexibility in their procurement strategies.
As of June 18th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.55% compared to the beginning of this month (7833.33 yuan/ton). Compared to last week, the fluctuation is relatively small. Price fluctuations are mainly influenced by factors such as supply and demand, raw material prices, and market competition.
Market mentality: On the supplier side, some manufacturers are optimistic about the future market due to low inventory pressure; However, some manufacturers are cautious about the future market due to insufficient market demand. In terms of downstream users, procurement strategies exhibit a certain degree of flexibility due to factors such as procurement costs and market competition.
2、 Supply side
This week, the prices of the main raw materials for acrylic acid have remained relatively stable with minimal fluctuations. As of June 18th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6568.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (6538.25 yuan/ton). The impact on the production cost of acrylic acid is limited.
3、 Demand side
Downstream demand: The overall downstream demand for acrylic acid remained stable this week, with some areas such as coatings and SAP industries showing certain growth potential. The paint industry has seen an increase in procurement volume due to the rebound of real estate completion; The SAP industry has experienced a decline in order volume due to the off-season demand for diapers.
Export situation: The export volume of acrylic acid remained stable this week, and some producers are expanding overseas markets to digest domestic overcapacity. In terms of export prices, affected by international market competition, the export price of acrylic acid has slightly decreased this week, but it still remains at a reasonable level.
4、 Future prospects
Looking ahead, the acrylic acid market will still face challenges from the supply-demand game. On the supply side, manufacturers need to continue optimizing production plans, reducing costs, and improving product quality; On the demand side, downstream users need to actively explore the market and increase product added value. Therefore, market participants need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes in order to develop more scientific and reasonable market strategies.
In summary, the acrylic acid market has maintained stable operation this week under the game of supply and demand. The future market will still face many challenges and uncertainties, requiring market participants to respond flexibly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 1st to 17th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2250 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.24% during the period, a month on month increase of 6.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.90%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.
Specifically, in terms of imported goods, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, and there are reports that most of Iran’s methanol plants have been shut down, which may have a significant impact on the arrival of goods at ports in the later stage. The futures market has risen sharply, and spot prices have also risen accordingly. In the short term, the external quotation of methanol at ports has increased significantly. However, downstream buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and only low-priced goods are traded smoothly. At present, although geopolitical factors have boosted market sentiment, the continued rise in methanol prices has been suppressed due to the high inventory of large traders and poor downstream acceptance of high prices.
In terms of production enterprises, there are slight differences between regions. In the northwest region of the main production area, with the boost of raw coal prices, active replenishment by traders, and support from olefin external mining, manufacturers’ bidding prices have risen and transactions have been good. Driven by sudden equipment failures of some manufacturers in Shandong region, prices of other manufacturers have also increased. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of sustained macroeconomic favorable conditions, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic market has further improved, driving a significant increase in pending orders from enterprises compared to the previous period.
In terms of external market, from May 30th to June 16th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.50-322.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, there is expected to be a reduction in imported methanol, and downstream industries will face increased production costs due to the rise in methanol market prices, which will suppress downstream demand and production under the situation of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the port arrival situation, fundamental impacts, and macro factors. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate at a high level.

In June, the domestic ABS market in China remained stable with some upward trend, and the spot prices of some grades still saw a decent increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 16th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase or decrease of+0.83% in price level, and an increase or decrease of+0.24% compared to early June.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In June, the load of the ABS industry in China remained generally stable, with the overall load level basically maintaining 64% of the first ten days. The weekly average output remains unchanged at around 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has been slightly digested, but it is still above 200000 tons, and the on-site supply remains abundant. At the same time, the production capacity of new facilities in Daqing Petrochemical is approaching recently, and coupled with the restart of some enterprises, the supply side support of the industry has been somewhat suppressed. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices is basically flat.
Cost factor: In mid June, the upstream three materials of ABS showed mixed trends, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. In terms of acrylonitrile, the production plans of Zhenhai Refining and Jilin Petrochemical plants have suppressed market sentiment, while the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries in China has not changed much, resulting in a continued strong market supply and weak demand. The phased demand in southern China has to some extent slowed down the downward trend, and spot prices have stabilized after falling.
In June, the domestic butadiene market in China first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend. At the beginning of last week, the small upward trend continued, but with lower downstream purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, the butadiene market began to decline. Recently, with the weak trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures market and equipment maintenance, the market expects weak downstream demand and a lack of downstream support, leading to a decline in the butadiene market.
Recently, the remote raw material crude oil for styrene has rebounded strongly in the short term, and domestic styrene prices have been greatly affected by crude oil, leading to a strengthening trend. Downstream 3S profit recovery, demand is still acceptable. However, the restart of styrene plants in the future is concentrated, and at the same time, the market inventory is high, which may increase the supply pressure. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate in the short term.
In terms of demand: In mid June, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal sector remained generally flat. The current market is gradually entering the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises are maintaining a strong demand for supplementary orders. However, recent geopolitical deterioration has pushed up international crude oil prices, and ABS is supported by remote raw materials. At the same time, the China US talks released macro positive news, leading to emotional recovery in the market and driving some short positions to be replenished, resulting in a slight improvement in the flow rate of goods supply. However, the inventory level in the venue is relatively high, the supply continues to be loose, and there is a lot of room for turnover in the venue. Overall, there was limited improvement in demand support for the ABS market in mid June.
Future forecast
The ABS market in China rose in June. Upstream prices of the three materials have fluctuated, while the production load of ABS polymerization plants has remained flat and demand has risen narrowly. Business analysts believe that ABS has been mainly boosted by remote raw materials and macro news in the near future. However, the industry’s strong supply and weak demand pattern has dragged down spot prices for a long time, coupled with the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the ABS market will be limited in the short term.

This week, approaching the weekend, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have surged, driving the overall rise of the polyester chain and the PET market to experience a significant increase. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of June 13th, the average selling price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) was 6104 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% from the beginning of the week.
In terms of cost, international crude oil surged by 10% on June 13th, setting a new high since February and driving the overall rise of the polyester chain. PTA production is mainly based on crude oil, and changes in crude oil prices will indirectly affect the price of bottle chips. The low industry processing fees have given factories a certain willingness to raise prices, which to some extent supports the price of polyester bottle chips. For example, on June 12th, due to the low industry processing fees, the PET market saw a narrow upward adjustment.
On the supply side, the reduction in production by some large factories, coupled with the tight spot circulation in some areas, drove up the PET market price on June 13th. However, overall, the production of bottle flakes is running at a high level and production capacity is increasing. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand, prices are still under long-term pressure.
In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream demand is weak, and the replenishment of inventory is limited to small orders for essential needs, lacking the driving force to chase up prices, which limits the increase in polyester bottle chip prices. For example, on June 12th, although polyester dual raw materials rebounded during the day, due to the limited increase in downstream demand, the action force in the PET market only slightly increased.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the price increase is mainly due to the rise in costs, and the PET market price may continue to adjust narrowly in the short term. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to changes in external news, device changes, and demand recovery in the future.