Cobalt prices fluctuate strongly at high levels in May
On May 29th, the cobalt price was 424000 yuan/ton, fluctuating and consolidating from the high of 422300 yuan/ton on May 1st, with an increase of 0.40%. In May 2026, the cobalt market first rose and then fell back, with a strong overall high volatility and a median price of about 425000 yuan/ton.
Overseas markets: MB cobalt prices rise slightly in May
In May, cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded, while MB cobalt prices fluctuated slightly and rose. The rise in international cobalt prices is positive for the domestic cobalt market.
Supply side: shortage of raw materials, decrease in production, and empty inventory
In mid March, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) suspended cobalt exports due to disputes over laboratory quality inspection results after officials raised the issue of inconsistent cobalt hydroxide test results. The export customs clearance of cobalt hydroxide has been completely suspended, resulting in almost no incoming goods from giants such as Glencore and Luoyang in May.
The operating rate of domestic smelting enterprises in May was 40% for top enterprises and 20% -30% for small and medium-sized enterprises, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials.
Domestic social inventory (electrolytic cobalt+salts) is about 8000-10000 tons of metallic cobalt, a year-on-year decrease of 60%. The port inventory is about 2000 tons, almost empty. There is a shortage of raw materials and finished products, and the inventory of the smelting plant is about 30000-4000 tons. The inventory is at a historical low, only enough for 8-10 days of immediate use.
On the demand side: Although demand has rebounded, overall growth has fallen short of expectations
According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 183.9 GWh in April, an increase of 3.5% month on month and 55.6% year-on-year. Among them, the output of ternary batteries was 31.6GWh, accounting for 17.2% of the total output, an increase of 0.8% month on month and 34.4% year-on-year. From January to April, the cumulative production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 671.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.0%. The cumulative output of ternary batteries is 121.0 GWh, accounting for 18.0% of the total output, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 38.8%. The production growth of ternary batteries is slow, and their proportion in power and energy storage batteries has significantly declined. The expectation of demand growth in the cobalt market has decreased.
China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released information: In April 2026, the domestic market shipped 25.733 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. From January to April 2026, the domestic market shipped 86.538 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. Although the domestic mobile phone shipment volume increased slightly in April, the annual mobile phone shipment volume still decreased significantly, and the overall demand for cobalt in mobile phones decreased, leading to a decrease in the expected demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market.
According to the forecast data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China are expected to reach 950000 units in May, an increase of 12.0% compared to April. However, based on the retail data from the previous four weeks (May 1-24), the sales volume of 619000 vehicles still decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year, indicating a market recovery trend for the whole month. However, the overall demand growth expectation is limited. Moreover, multiple brands announced price increases or tightened terminal discounts in May, which will inevitably affect the growth of sales of new energy passenger vehicles and limit the growth of demand in the cobalt market.

Overall, the demand side of the cobalt market experienced a rebound in May, with downstream demand slowly recovering. However, relative to demand expectations, growth has been quite slow, providing limited support for the rise in cobalt prices.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the arrival of goods from the Democratic Republic of Congo at the port is delayed, and there are very few available spot goods. Traders have firm quotes and are reluctant to sell. Downstream procurement requires small orders according to demand, but they are worried about high prices but dare not cut off supply. The low inventory and downstream demand will continue, and the difficult to repair gap market will continue. The cobalt market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the future, with the center of gravity shifting upwards. Cobalt prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall.

In May 2026, the domestic butadiene market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend, with the focus of the market continuously shifting downwards throughout the month. The trading atmosphere in the market was relatively weak, and the mentality of merchants was generally cautious. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, from May 1st to 28th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13200 yuan/ton to 12066.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 8.59% during the period.
Cost aspect: The continuous weakening of butadiene cost support in May is one of the core driving factors for the downward trend in market prices. As a byproduct of ethylene cracking, the price trend of butadiene is highly correlated with international crude oil and naphtha. This month, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and weakened due to the cooling of geopolitical expectations in the Middle East. Naphtha has also been running weakly, putting overall pressure on refining raw materials and insufficient support for the bottom of butadiene. At the same time, the overall profit margin of the chemical industry chain is loose, domestic cracking units operate stably, and the transmission of raw material costs to butadiene is insufficient. As of mid May, the theoretical profit of the butadiene extraction process unit has decreased by 37% compared to the previous month, and the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation unit has also fallen by about 43%. The cost side’s support for prices has further weakened, driving the butadiene market quotation to continue to loosen. As of May 27th, the settlement price of the July contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $88.68 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the July contract is $94.29 per barrel.
Supply side:
In May, the overall operation of domestic butadiene plants was differentiated, and some production plants were under maintenance, resulting in a contraction of local supply of goods; At the same time, multiple sets of equipment have resumed production one after another, offsetting the reduction impact caused by maintenance. Overall, the market supply of goods remains loose, with sufficient supply of circulating goods. The pace of on-site shipments is relatively slow, and the transaction performance is lower than expected, resulting in a slow progress of inventory digestion for enterprises. In order to accelerate the flow of goods, the production and trade quotations are constantly loosening. Combined with the normal arrival of external imported goods into the port and market, further supplementing the domestic circulation market, the overall supply pressure of the industry has always been relatively high, which has significantly suppressed the market.
Demand side:
The overall demand for butadiene downstream in May was weak, becoming the main factor dragging down the market trend. The overall operating level of mainstream downstream industries such as synthetic rubber and latex is low, and the industry’s production enthusiasm is insufficient. The market atmosphere in the terminal rubber products and tire fields is flat, and the turnover speed of finished products has slowed down. Enterprises generally face inventory backlog problems. As a result, downstream manufacturers tend to adopt a conservative purchasing attitude and adhere to the on-demand procurement model. Their willingness to restock the market is low, and there is a strong demand for price reduction in raw material quotations. The overall transmission of the industrial chain is not smooth, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. There are few centralized stocking operations, and the demand side has been unable to provide effective support for the market.
As of May 27th, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has been weakly consolidated. International crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly, downstream inquiries were wait-and-see, and the supply price of Shunding rubber was lowered. Shunding rubber spot merchants’ offers were slightly lowered.

Market forecast:
Based on the current fundamentals, the domestic butadiene market will continue to operate in a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. The volatility of international crude oil prices makes it difficult for the cost side to quickly form strong support. Coupled with the lack of significant improvement in downstream demand, the market lacks confidence in long positions, and the upward space for prices is limited. However, with an increase in maintenance equipment in the industry next month, market supply is expected to gradually tighten, which will provide a certain bottom support for the market. With the gradual decline of raw material prices to low levels, the profitability of downstream industries is expected to be restored, and production and procurement willingness may steadily rebound. If the crude oil market stabilizes and recovers in the future, coupled with multiple benefits such as supply tightening and demand recovery, the domestic butadiene market is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize, and usher in a fluctuating rebound trend in the medium term. Continuous attention should be paid to key factors such as international crude oil trends, equipment maintenance dynamics, downstream industry start-up and order changes, and port inventory changes in the future.

1、 Price trend
As of May 27th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4920 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market has a stable operating rate, stable demand, and overall market consolidation.
2、 Cause analysis
Market supply: Currently, the DMF market has loose supply, with high equipment load, inventory accumulation, and high operating hours combined with inventory accumulation. The pressure of shipment continues to pressure prices, and regional price wars intensify. The operating rate is high, and the industry operating rate remains above 75%. The early maintenance equipment is concentrated for resumption of production, and the main equipment in Guizhou, Anyang, and other areas are operating normally. Downstream demand is insufficient.
Raw material cost: The core production cost of DMF is composed of methanol and liquid ammonia. This week, the weak operation of raw material prices has insufficient support for DMF prices, providing space for market price reduction. Methanol: fluctuated at a low level during the week, first rising and then falling, with an average price of about 2150 yuan/ton, weakening year-on-year. The downward trend of methanol prices directly lowers DMF production costs, and manufacturers have sufficient room for price reduction, greatly reducing their willingness to raise prices. Liquid ammonia: prices fluctuate steadily and narrowly, with no obvious rise or fall, and there is no additional pressure on the cost side, but it has not formed support. Industry profit: DMF prices continue to decline, and enterprise profits have significantly shrunk. Some small factories in the north have suffered losses and are forced to reduce production or shut down, but the impact on the overall cost pattern is limited. Overall, the cost line lacks sufficient protection against current prices, and the market is prone to falling but difficult to rise.
Downstream demand: The downstream core industry has weak demand, insufficient terminal orders, weak demand, cautious procurement, and market transactions are mainly small orders, lacking support from large orders. The operating rate remains at 70% -75%. However, the terminal nylon and chemical fiber industries are in the off-season, with insufficient orders and stable demand without increasing volume. They only purchase small orders according to demand, which has limited driving force on cyclohexane demand. The solvent industry: constrained by environmental policies, some enterprises turn to substitutes, and demand continues to shrink, with low purchasing willingness. The demand in industries such as electronics and coatings is flat, with no obvious signs of recovery, making it difficult to form effective support. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, resistance to high prices, and batch transactions are rare. Market activity is low, and the overall demand side is weak and difficult to eliminate, leading to loose supply.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly operate in a narrow and weak range, and the situation of oversupply in the market will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. Inventory levels will remain high, and downstream procurement atmosphere will be quiet.

Recently, the lithium carbonate market has experienced a strong upward trend in the early stage, ushering in a phase of correction. The price has dropped from the highest of 200000 yuan/ton this year to 177000 yuan/ton on May 26th, a month on month increase of 2.91% and a year-on-year increase of 183%. Although the price has fallen, there has been a significant increase in spot transactions, and the supply and demand fundamentals still support the strong price trend.
The contraction trend of the supply side remains unchanged, while variables are frequent
Lithium ore spot prices continue to be tight, with large lithium salt factories accelerating delivery and locking in raw materials for the third quarter ahead of schedule. Port inventories continue to deplete and are now at historic lows. Although lithium mines in Zimbabwe have been launched, it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of spot goods in the short term. Coupled with the delay in resuming production of domestic ore bodies, supply side disturbances still exist. At the same time, mines such as Bald Hill in Australia launched a resumption plan, breaking the market’s unanimous expectation of a continued shortage of lithium resources, and market sentiment immediately adjusted.
The peak season characteristics on the demand side are prominent, and the industrial chain is imbalanced
The demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets continued to improve from May to June, with downstream production increasing month on month. Battery companies concentrated on purchasing at low prices, driving a surge in spot transactions. The industry expects that the supply and demand of lithium carbonate will continue to deplete in the second quarter, with demand growth rate higher than supply growth rate, and the fundamentals maintaining a strong pattern.
With the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices, the pressure on downstream industrial chains has surged
In terms of power batteries, the cost of lithium carbonate has increased by about 8000-12000 yuan per vehicle; If transmitted to the terminal, the car price needs to be increased by 15000-25000 yuan. Starting from March this year, many new energy vehicle brands such as BYD, Tesla, Xiaomi, Changan Qiyuan, NIO, and Ideal have coincidentally raised their new car prices/pre-sale prices or tightened terminal discounts, covering multiple main models such as pure electric and hybrid, ranging from 1000 yuan to 20000 yuan.
In terms of energy storage, when the lithium price is 200000 yuan/ton, the system cost increases by 16.5% -23.1%, while the industry average gross profit margin is only 18%, and profits are basically swallowed up. This dilemma has been exposed in the wave of abandoned bids for projects in various regions. According to incomplete statistics, more than 200 energy storage projects have been cut off nationwide since 2026, and at least 6GWh projects have had their bids suspended.
Overall, the price of lithium carbonate has surged in the early stage, making it susceptible to market sentiment disturbances and frequent supply side variables, which may continue to adjust. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
As of May 22nd, the reference average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid market in China is 9700 yuan/ton, which is 12.53% higher than the reference average price of 8620 yuan/ton on May 12th.
2、 Market analysis
In the past ten days, the market price of phosphoric acid has shown a strong upward trend. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and under cost pressure, phosphoric acid continues to rise along with the price of raw materials. The operating rate of the enterprise is stable, and downstream procurement is in high demand. The main focus is on individual negotiations for each transaction. At present, the market is mainly optimistic.
market conditions
As of May 22nd, the market price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China is around 9500-10000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 9600-10200 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In the past ten days, the price trend of yellow phosphorus in the market has been strong and upward, with a production rate of about 60% in the Yunnan Guizhou region. At present, the market supply is tight, and manufacturers are mainly pushing prices. As the price of yellow phosphorus rises at a high level, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly seek low prices for transactions. As of May 22nd, the yellow phosphorus market in Yunnan Guizhou region has been operating at a high level, with a reference price of around 33962 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.
3、 Future forecast
Recently, the trend of the phosphoric acid market has been dominant. The rise in costs has driven up the price of phosphoric acid, and the market’s mentality of buying up rather than buying down has increased. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise strongly.