1、 Market Overview
As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6391.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton). Compared to the previous high, it tends to stabilize. This indicates that after experiencing a rapid price surge in January (with Shandong prices reaching 6405 yuan/ton on January 27th), the market’s upward momentum has weakened, and both buyers and sellers have turned cautious and entered a wait-and-see phase.
2、 Fundamental analysis of supply and demand
The current market’s “temporary stability” pattern is mainly the result of the balance between supply and demand factors.
1. Supply side:
Continued tight equilibrium state: The core factor supporting the price increase in the early stage was the unexpected tightening of supply, especially the operating rate of PDH (propane dehydrogenation) units fell below 60% at one point. Although the overall utilization rate of propylene production capacity is currently 70.93%, it is still relatively low, and enterprise inventory is controllable. In the short term, spot resources are not abundant.
The market’s focus is on the expectation of “storage restart”. Analysis suggests that if the main PDH units in the north restart as planned, it may alleviate the supply shortage and put pressure on market sentiment. This is one of the main sources of the current market wait-and-see sentiment.
2. Demand side:
As downstream factories gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday, actual demand has slightly weakened. The main downstream performance varies. For example, the price of PP powder remained stable at a high level, while the prices of epichlorohydrin and octanol also experienced varying degrees of decline. The downstream’s willingness to chase after high priced propylene has slowed down, making it difficult to support further significant price increases.
3. Cost side:
At present, the profit of PDH process route is still deeply lost (East China -304 yuan/ton, Shandong -444 yuan/ton). From a cost perspective, this provides strong bottom support for propylene prices, and production companies have limited willingness to continue offering discounts. The previously optimistic macro sentiment and financial push have weakened, and the market has returned to focus on fundamental supply and demand.
3、 Short term outlook:
Overall, it is expected that propylene prices will maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term. The price above 6450 yuan/ton is facing significant pressure, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of downstream demand. If the potential device restart progress on the supply side falls short of expectations, as well as sustained loss costs, it will limit the downward space for prices. The key to the post holiday market trend lies in the game between the actual situation of supply side equipment restart and the demand for downstream enterprises to resume work and stock up after the holiday.

Commodity market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mainstream market for polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ion degree) in China was weak in January. On the 30th, the main market price was around 12960 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it was around 13000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.31%. This month, the raw material acrylonitrile has risen, the acrylic acid market has risen, the fuel market has risen, the cost of polyacrylamide is supported, the main production areas are operating normally, the market supply is abundant, and the mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is weak.
Raw material acrylonitrile: In January, the acrylonitrile market first fell and then rose. As of January 30th, the average price of acrylonitrile was 7650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2% from 7500 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; The downstream domestic ABS industry has a large and stable load with small fluctuations, and the continuous rise in prices supports acrylonitrile.
Raw material acrylic acid: The price of acrylic acid continued to rise in January. Recently, the cost price of propylene has continued to rise strongly, providing good cost support for the acrylic acid market. Under the support of costs, the quotations from factories and cargo holders are relatively firm, and the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, resulting in a decrease in low-priced supply in the market.
Liquefied natural gas for production. The domestic liquefied natural gas market prices saw a significant increase in January. As of January 30th, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 3610 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.33% from 3302 yuan/ton on January 1st. Affected by persistent low temperature weather, the demand for heating in northern regions is strong, supporting the consumption of LNG.
Market forecast: In January, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid will rise, the fuel market will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will increase. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with stable market transactions being the main focus. At present, the market is still in a situation of oversupply, and it is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

On January 30th, precious metal prices experienced a significant drop
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 30, 2026, the morning market price of gold spot was 1199.84 yuan/gram, a decrease of 3.5% from the market price of 1243.4 yuan/gram on January 29.
On January 30, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1160.68 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; The benchmark price in the early session was 1179.31 yuan/gram, a decrease of 18.63 yuan/gram (-1.58%), and a decrease of 87.54 yuan/gram (-7.01%) from the benchmark price of 1248.22 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day (1.29).
In terms of futures, the market continued to decline significantly on the night of the 30th, with the main Shanghai gold contract opening at 1143.64 yuan/gram and closing at 1072.72 yuan/gram, a sharp drop of 10.16% from the settlement price of 1194.06 yuan/gram on the 30th.
On January 30, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Silver (silver ingots with a standard weight of 15 kilograms and a purity of not less than 99.99%, pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 27980 yuan/kg at noon, a decrease of 1505 yuan/kg (-5.10%) from the earlier benchmark price of 29485 yuan/kg; Compared to the benchmark price of 30300 yuan/kg in the afternoon session of the previous trading day (1.29), it has decreased by 2320 yuan/kg (-7.66%).
In terms of futures:
On the night of January 30, 2026, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 25960 yuan/kg and closed at 24832 yuan/kg, a sharp drop of 17.00% (limit down) from the settlement price of 29919 yuan/kg on the 30th.
Reasons for the sharp decline of precious metals on January 30, 2026
The sharp decline in precious metals on January 30, 2026 was a resonance result of the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations shifting, the nomination of a hawkish chairman, previous profit taking, leverage trampling, and liquidity shocks. Silver, due to its small size and weak liquidity, experienced a significant decline compared to gold. Here are the specific reasons:
1. Pricing logic collapse: Federal Reserve policy expectation reversal
On January 29th, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, sending a hawkish signal of “longer high interest rates and lower than expected rate cuts”, breaking the market’s previous aggressive expectation of a “50-75bp annual rate cut”.
On January 30th, Trump nominated hawkish former director Kevin Walsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. The market traded according to “hawkish Walsh”, and the US dollar index rebounded (up 0.93% on the day). The attractiveness of precious metals denominated in US dollars plummeted, forming a seesaw effect of “strong US dollar, weak gold and silver”.
The real interest rate of the US 10-year treasury bond rose by 12bp to 1.25%, significantly increasing the cost of holding gold and disrupting the core logic of the rise of precious metals.
2. Profit taking after the initial surge: high valuation correction

Since January, gold has risen from around $4300 to $5600, with a monthly increase of over 30%; Silver has risen nearly 70% this month, and technical indicators are severely overbought (RSI once exceeded 80), indicating a strong demand for technical correction in the market. Institutions and speculative funds concentrated their profits at historical highs, triggering large-scale selling and becoming the initial driving force for the sharp decline.
3. Speculative market volatility amplification: leverage trampling and margin increase
CME、 Recently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange have raised the margin ratio for precious metal contracts (such as CME gold margin to about 6% of nominal value), causing a sharp increase in financial pressure for high leverage investors. The price drop triggers stop loss and additional margin, forming a vicious cycle of “closing and selling – price drop – passive closing”. Programmatic trading further amplifies volatility, and silver has a more significant stampede effect due to low liquidity.
4. Liquidity and market structure fragility
The silver market is small in size and highly speculative, with tight deliverable inventory at high levels (about 70% of the London Stock Exchange’s silver inventory is locked in by ETFs), making it prone to extreme trends of “short selling followed by reversal”.
The rapid increase in the early stage has led to market sentiment sensitivity, and high valuations lacking fundamental support are prone to panic selling under the impact of news.
In the short term, high leverage positions continue to clear, with significant volatility, and the spot price of precious metals is highly likely to experience a significant pullback along with futures prices; Silver may continue to fluctuate higher than gold due to liquidity and inventory issues. Mid term focus on the Senate approval of Walsh’s nomination, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s March interest rate, with policy expectations remaining the core variables.

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market increased in January. On January 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 13740 yuan/ton, and on January 29th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 13900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.16%.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic titanium dioxide market price increased in January. The demand for titanium dioxide in the first ten days was average, and the trading atmosphere on the market was slightly light, with stable prices being the main focus. In the middle of the month, the price of sulfuric acid at the raw material end remained high and difficult to decrease, and there was significant cost pressure on enterprises. Titanium companies’ quotations remained firm and upward, while in the latter half of the year, there was a strong desire for an increase in titanium dioxide prices. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 13200-14300 yuan/ton; The price of Ruiti type is around 12200-12800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
According to customs data statistics, China’s titanium dioxide exports in December 2025 were 171800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.49% and a month on month increase of 12.88%. Among them, 127700 tons of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide were exported, a month on month increase of 8.49%; The export of chloride method reached 44200 tons, a month on month increase of 27.83%. From January to December 2025, a total of approximately 1.8169 million tons of titanium dioxide were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.46% or approximately 84800 tons. The annual export volume of titanium dioxide experienced its first decline since 2016. Among them, the export of titanium dioxide by chlorination method was 366500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.95%; The export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 1.4505 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.77%.
According to customs data statistics, in December 2025, China imported 6691.21 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year decrease of 7.71% and a month on month increase of 25.27%. Among them, 3549.67 tons were imported by chlorination method, a decrease of 7.41% compared to the previous period, and 3141.54 tons were imported by sulfuric acid method, a decrease of 2.49% compared to the previous period. The total import of titanium dioxide from January to December 2025 was 74500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.92%. Among them, 30200 tons of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.99%; The import of titanium dioxide by chlorination method was 44400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.67%.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that this month’s production costs will have a significant impact, putting pressure on titanium dioxide manufacturers. Currently, there is a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market, and most companies are waiting and observing. It is expected that the market will operate steadily and positively in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

Isobutyraldehyde prices fluctuate and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 6016.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.64% compared to the January 1st price of 5766.67 yuan/ton. The price of propylene has fluctuated and risen, coupled with low production and inventory levels of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers, resulting in a tight supply of isobutyraldehyde and a significant increase in isobutyraldehyde prices.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the price of propylene was 6411 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 12.13% compared to the price of 5717 yuan/ton on January 1st. There are many maintenance tasks for the propylene plant, and the supply of propylene is temporarily tight, resulting in fluctuating propylene prices. Cost support, the increase in cost of isobutyraldehyde provides significant support.
Isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increase production and supply
The overall production rate of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers has slightly increased, with a production rate of about 87%.
Market Overview and Forecast
The analyst of the isobutyraldehyde industry at Shengyi Society believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has risen significantly, and the support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde costs has increased; In terms of supply and demand, the production of isobutyraldehyde has increased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde has increased, and the upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has decreased. In the future, with the significant increase in costs, the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde will increase, and the pressure for the decline of isobutyraldehyde supply will increase. Overall, the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde still exists, and it is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and rise in the future.