Author Archives: lubon

The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the price of butadiene “has fallen again”

1、 Price trend

 

Recent domestic butadiene market continued to decline. As of February 18, the price of butadiene was 6482 yuan / ton, down 19.82% month on month and 32.52% year-on-year, according to the monitoring of business club.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Products: the domestic butadiene market maintains low-end finishing, and the prices of some factories keep falling. The downstream latex industry is slow to return to work, and the logistics in East China is still not smooth, and the market turnover is cold. In Shandong Province, the price of offers sent to the market is about 6100-6200 yuan / ton, while in East China, the market has declined slightly. The price reference is 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and the actual market orders are few, and the merchants are waiting for the downstream demand to recover.

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

 

In terms of market, the butadiene market in East China is dominated by wait-and-see, while the market in the North shows some signs of stabilization. However, the inventory in East China tank farm is high, the downstream construction and logistics recovery are slow, and under the pressure of the supply side, the mentality of the merchants is still weak. The market delivery price is maintained at 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and the zero star price is slightly low or slightly high. The actual single negotiation is dominated. The butadiene market in Shandong Province was slightly consolidated, and the market fell to a low level to stimulate the demand for inquiry. The offer from the middlemen was relatively firm. The low-end price slightly increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton, and the offer was 6150-6300 yuan / ton when it was delivered to the middlemen for negotiation.

 

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the domestic mainstream styrene butadiene market reported a decline. The main price of Qilu 1502e in North China is around 10000 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu 1502e in East China is around 10400 yuan / ton.

 

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Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China is still lower, the inquiry atmosphere is slightly improved, and the trading and investment maintain negotiation. As of the deadline, the main market price of Shunding in North China is 9800-10000 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The short-term downstream terminal demand is difficult to follow up obviously, the manufacturer’s inventory is still high, the market supply and demand fundamental contradiction continues to have a negative impact on the market, and the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue to decline. The butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the short-term domestic butadiene spot market will continue to be weak and downward in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the latest price guidance of the supplier.

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Caprolactam prices fell sharply due to the lack of positive market (2.10-2.17)

1、 Price trend

 

 

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 10 was 11033 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 17 was 10633 yuan / ton, with the weekly price down 3.64%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on February 17 is 53.48, down 0.17 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.52% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11600 yuan / ton, and the unit capacity is 400000 tons / year. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11400 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 450000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 11400 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 300000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11500 yuan / ton, contract order, unit capacity 280000 tons / year.

 

Industrial chain: pure benzene port inventory accumulation this week. The process of downstream resumption is slow. In addition, styrene plant reduces production and raw materials are released. At present, pure benzene is in the situation of weak supply and demand, and is still constrained by transportation. PA6 chip enterprises have a large inventory, and are now operating at a low level.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the current demand for caprolactam is low, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the epidemic, some enterprises have not yet returned to work, and logistics and transportation are blocked. The price of caprolactam was lowered under many factors. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain weak in the later period, and the price will drop slightly.

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On February 15, the demand side of China’s domestic PC market did not perform well

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business club, today’s comprehensive market price is 14300.00 yuan / ton, and the PC market is weak and stable. At present, it is difficult for the PC market to have a real deal.

 

2、 Cause analysis

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

Product: the basic information of domestic PC market did not fluctuate obviously, and the overall wait-and-see pattern continued. Due to the impact of public health events, the downstream demand of PC and the recovery time of logistics are still uncertain, and the market is basically priced. Due to the high raw materials and the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, and the absence of effective buyer participation, it is expected that the domestic PC market will continue to wait and see the cold operation today.

 

Industry chain: upstream bisphenol A: the market fluctuation of bisphenol A in East China was limited on Thursday, with reference to the negotiation of 10800-10900 yuan / ton. Although there are sporadic quotations in the market, there are few market inquiries at present. The quotations are at a high level, so it is difficult to make a deal. Most operators continue to wait and see.

 

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Industry: on February 14, the rubber and plastic index was 642 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, down 39.43% compared with 1060 points (2012-03-14), and up 11.46% compared with 576 points, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PC analysts of the business club believe that: the market trend is stable, and the business owners keep a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the demand side is not performing well, and the transaction is hard to conceal.

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Enterprises have not yet fully resumed production, and the market price of rare earth is rising

On February 13, the rare earth index was 339, up 1 point from yesterday, 66.10% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.09% higher than the lowest point, 271, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

PVA 2699

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals increased by 1000 yuan / ton to 368500 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 1500 yuan / ton to 284000 yuan / ton; dysprosium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1725000 yuan / ton; praseodymium oxide rose by 330000 yuan / ton; and neodymium oxide rose by 1000 yuan / ton to 294500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy increased by 3500 yuan / ton to 361500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 17005000 yuan / ton.

 

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market is rising, the domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, the export of heavy and rare earth is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, the domestic supply is reduced, in addition, due to the impact of the recent epidemic, some rare earth products are not fully back to work, the domestic supply of rare earth prices is tight, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth is rising. In addition to the recent resumption of production of some permanent magnet products, as well as the exhaustion of some inventory during the Spring Festival, the market trend of PR nd series products increased slightly, the supply in the field was tight, the recent demand for light rare earth was average, and the market price rose slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, some enterprises have not yet started construction, but the demand in the downstream has not changed much in the near future, and most rare earth prices are stable.

 

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Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, so as to promote China’s economy and the world economy We will play a positive role in our development. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

 

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced, coupled with domestic support for the export market of rare earth industry, the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way, and transportation is still limited in the near future, and the market price of rare earth is expected to continue to rise.

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On February 11, the price of phthalic anhydride in China fell slightly

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower. As of February 11, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method is 5912.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower, the demand of plasticizer industry is not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride is depressed.

 

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been slightly lower. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited. The inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers has increased and the delivery situation is poor. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5800-6100 yuan / ton and 5500-5700 yuan / ton respectively. In North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5600-5900 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback. The downstream construction is not high, and the procurement is based on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is slightly down.

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

 

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products in China on February 11 is 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in port area is slightly lower, and the quotation is declining. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is weak, the port inventory is increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to the negotiation, which is discussed in detail. The price of phthalic anhydride market is lower due to the decrease of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

 

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In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw material fell, DOP enterprises started work normally, the operating rate dropped, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, DOP supply was normal, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, and the price trend in the downstream is slightly down. In addition, the price of ox in the upstream is down. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly down trend in the later period.

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