This week, the sulfur market is in a pattern of “external strength and internal stability, easy to rise but difficult to fall”, with mixed long and short factors in the market, but the support force is significantly stronger.
The price level shows structural differentiation. On December 4th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 3924.33 yuan/ton, a slight correction of only 0.75% compared to yesterday’s (3897.33 yuan/ton), indicating a slight fluctuation in short-term market sentiment.
Spot market performance:
The prices of the main refineries remain stable, and the bidding base price of Dalian refineries has even been slightly raised. Especially in the Shandong region, the price of liquid sulfur has significantly increased by 20-80 yuan/ton, which clearly indicates that the regional spot supply is not loose, and even tight. The transaction price of around 4100 yuan/ton along the Yangtze River has also remained stable at a high level.
The core contradiction of the market lies in “strong expectations” and “weak reality”
On the one hand, the strength of the international market is currently the most core driving factor. The inquiry price of CFR 530-535 USD/ton in India and Indonesia has formed a huge price difference with the existing import price of CFR 490-492 USD/ton in China. This indicates that the cost of importing sulfur into China will face enormous upward pressure in the future, creating a solid “cost floor” for domestic market prices.
On the other hand, the domestic spot market is showing a situation of “light trading volume”. Sellers are generally reluctant to sell and have a weak willingness to ship due to the expectation of bullish external market and limited arrival at the port; However, the buyer’s acceptance of the current high price is limited, making it difficult to reach a transaction through inquiries, resulting in a decrease in market trading activity.
Supply side:
The number of arrivals is limited, and although the total inventory of ports nationwide has slightly increased, the inventory of key Yangtze River consumer ports continues to decline, indicating that the spot goods in the core region are slowly being consumed.
Demand side:
Despite lacking explosive power, it is still slowly exerting force, providing a stable foundation for essential needs. This pattern of “limited supply while demand still exists” makes the market not have the conditions for a sharp decline.
Conclusions and Prospects
In summary, the current light trading in the market is a brief game between buyers and sellers at high prices, rather than a signal of a weakening trend. Against the backdrop of tight international sulfur supply and demand and skyrocketing prices, the cost support in the domestic market is extremely strong. Combined with the insufficient domestic spot resources and sellers’ reluctance to sell, it is reasonable to judge that the sulfur market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.
In the short term, the sulfur market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, waiting for new drivers to break the deadlock. Once international high priced resources are traded and gradually transmitted domestically, or if downstream domestic demand is concentrated and released at some point, prices are likely to regain upward momentum. It is necessary to closely monitor the bidding and transaction results of Dalian Refinery, the sustainability of the price increase of liquid sulfur in Shandong, and the actual transaction prices of international buying, all of which will become key indicators affecting the next direction of the market.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average market price of light soda ash on November 28th was 1224 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 1224 yuan/ton on November 21st. The price trend of soda ash remained stable throughout the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the soda ash market has been running steadily, with downstream production decreasing and demand for soda ash decreasing. Market transactions urgently need to follow up, and some supply side enterprises have reduced or maintained their equipment. The soda ash production rate has declined, which has supported the market mentality. The basic pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash has not improved, and the mentality of operators is cautious. The soda ash price market is running steadily.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass market fell first and then rose this week. As of November 28th, the average market price was 13.68 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.48% compared to the price of 13.48 yuan/ton on November 21st. This week, the operating rate of the glass market has slightly decreased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, enterprise shipments have been good, glass social inventory has decreased, and glass prices have risen narrowly.
Future forecast: Currently, the domestic soda ash spot market is mainly stabilizing, and the production capacity of supply side equipment is recovering in the later stage. The expected operating rate is rising, and the downstream market has stopped falling and rebounded. The purchase of soda ash may increase. It is expected that the soda ash market will remain stagnant and operate steadily, and specific attention will be paid to the market shipment situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has fluctuated and risen this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6590 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6656 yuan/ton, with a 1% increase during the week.
News: On November 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The US futures market is closed for Thanksgiving. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $62.87 per barrel, an increase of $0.33 or 0.5%.
Cost aspect: The pure benzene market is fluctuating at a low level. Overall supply remains loose; Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with some loss making varieties reducing production to maintain prices, and overall demand support is limited. Recently, the pure benzene market has rebounded multiple times, but due to demand constraints, the magnitude is limited. Under weak fundamentals, the pure benzene market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.
Supply and demand side: Recently, some styrene plants have been unplanned to shut down, and the supply side of styrene has strengthened. In addition, downstream profits have been repaired, and production has rebounded. The demand side is steadily following suit. The fundamentals of styrene have improved and prices have slightly increased.
Styrene external market: On November 27th, the closing prices of the styrene market in Asia remained stable, with closing prices of $800-810/ton FOB Korea and $810-820/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The current supply and demand side of the styrene market has slightly improved, but the cost side support is weak. After the short-term supply and demand side benefits are exhausted, it is expected that the resistance to the short-term styrene market will continue to increase, and the range oscillation operation will be the main trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (11.24-11.28), with an average market price of 293810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 300610 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.31%.
This week, the trend of tin prices first rose and then fell. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, prices continued to rise due to expectations of possible tightening of supply and support from low inventory conditions. Especially on Thursday, tin prices rose sharply, with the price of the main contract for Shanghai tin breaking through the important threshold of 300000 yuan/ton at one point. On Friday, futures prices continued to rise, but the high prices in the spot market suppressed purchasing demand, resulting in poor trading and a divergence between spot and futures prices.
On the raw material side, the resumption process of tin ore production in Myanmar is relatively slow, resulting in an unsatisfactory improvement in domestic raw material supply. In this situation, the consistently low processing fees have limited the production enthusiasm of refineries. At the same time, there have been some unstable factors in Indonesia’s exports, which have kept the explicit inventory of refined tin at a low level worldwide.
On the supply side, the overall production situation of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has stabilized at a high level this week. Production in Yunnan has recovered significantly, while in Jiangxi it has been slightly weak. The tight supply of raw materials is a common constraint on the release of production capacity in both regions.
On the demand side, although traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and tinplate have shown slightly weak consumption performance, the long-term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provide support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises shows a slight rebound trend.
comprehensive analysis
At present, the tight supply of raw materials in the mining sector has not changed, while tin prices have risen sharply, which has brought a certain degree of impact to the spot market. Some downstream and terminal enterprises are concerned that tin prices will continue to rise, so they carried out a small amount of replenishment operations yesterday and made purchases to meet rigid demand. However, other downstream and terminal enterprises still choose to adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the face of the current price level. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and fell at the end of November, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of November 26th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 6363.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.35% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Entering the end of the month, international crude oil is affected by OPEC+’s new round of production increases and the easing of regional tensions, causing concerns among industry players about long-term oversupply. On the other hand, the weakening of US demand and the impact of US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations have led to a decline in international oil prices. In the early stage of propylene inventory digestion, the supply of goods has tightened, and the company’s sales are not under pressure, with controlled shipments. Affected by this, the spot price of propylene continues to rise. The external market for propane remains strong, with port cargo leading the increase and prices rising. Overall, the prices of various raw materials for PP have fluctuated, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
At the end of November, domestic PP enterprises experienced a mutual restart and maintenance. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 77.5%, with little difference compared to the mid month. The current weekly average total production is close to 810000 tons, and the inventory position is around 870000 tons. Previously, there were restarts of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Third Line, Jingbo Petrochemical Second Line, and Luoyang Petrochemical Second Line. Later, there were some equipment failures and maintenance at Shanghai SECCO, as well as short shutdowns at Dushanzi Old Second Line. The loss of production capacity was basically offset, and the on-site supply remained abundant. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot prices has flattened.
In terms of demand:
The early Double 11 e-commerce festival had limited impact on improving the market trading atmosphere by stimulating consumption in packaging, home appliances, and other areas. The current PP terminal enterprise finished product market is generally hot, and the digestion of raw materials is slow, resulting in a low willingness to build raw material warehouses. Combined with the fact that the results of the China US talks at the beginning of the month did not meet market expectations, it did not provide a strong boost to the mentality of industry players. At the same time, the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and trade protectionism is still present, dragging down the export of end products, and the load position of downstream enterprises is not ideal. At the end of November, following the previous light trading pattern, the industry’s supply base was large and did not match the weak demand of terminal factories, making it difficult for market momentum to support PP spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and fell. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is fluctuating, and the overall support for PP is average. The industry load remains stable at a high level, with limited improvement in consumption. Under the large base production capacity, the loose supply pattern remains unchanged, and there is a lack of motivation to further digest inventory. It is expected that the PP market will continue to adjust.