According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 3490 yuan/ton and then fell to around 3360 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.72% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 18.62%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.39%. The domestic methanol market trading is still mainly influenced by geopolitics, and the rising sentiment on the futures side is gradually transmitted to the spot market; Supported by the continuous destocking of enterprises, the increasing demand for locally sourced olefins, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices have shown a significant surge.
As of the close on April 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 3089 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3300 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3043 yuan/ton. It closed at 3175 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 27 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1584666, the position is 361418, and the daily increase is -56991.
On the cost side, the overall supply of coal is stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Coal prices are mainly stable, and the cost side is stable. The cost impact is mixed.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, methanol prices continue to rise significantly. Although there has been a decline, the weekly average price remains high. Some downstream industries are struggling to keep up with the trend, and negative feedback from end products is becoming increasingly severe, resulting in a passive narrowing of production profits for most downstream industries. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
Supply side, some enterprise equipment maintenance; Some enterprises have restored their equipment; The overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in production and a rise in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 10th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $679-681/ton, down $10/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 141-143 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 510-512 euros/ton, down 9 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, with the support of fundamental factors such as tight supply and demand patterns and continuous inventory depletion, although the price increase has slowed down, the overall trend will remain strong. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly dominated by strong consolidation.

Recently, the polyethylene market has been in a pattern of high volatility and first strong and then weak. According to the testing conducted by Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8880 yuan/ton on April 6th and 8848 yuan/ton on April 10th, a decrease of 0.36%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11650 yuan/ton on April 6th and 11883 yuan/ton on April 10th, an increase of 2.00%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 6th was 10262 yuan/ton, and on April 10th it was 10487 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19%.
Strong support on the cost side: The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to high international crude oil prices. The continuous loss of profits in the production of oil-based PE has forced domestic petrochemical enterprises to concentrate on reducing losses and conducting spring inspections. The strong expectation of supply side contraction has boosted the market’s bullish sentiment.
Supply side structural contraction: no new production, concentrated spring inspections, and declining output. Middle Eastern sources of goods are reduced and arrivals are low. As of early April, the social inventory of polyethylene was 623200 tons, slightly increasing month on month, and the high inventory suppressed the upward space of prices.
The demand side continues to be weak: the peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and downstream orders such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials are average. There is a strong resistance to high prices, and procurement has shifted to “on-demand, just in need”, resulting in weak high price transactions. LLDPE is mainly used for agricultural film, and is most directly affected by the end of the peak season for agricultural film, with the most obvious negative impact on the demand side. Therefore, it has the largest decline after rising.
It is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate at a high level, with a tug of war between long and short positions, and both cost support and demand drag will coexist. The short-term trend is strong, but caution should be exercised against a pullback.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 8, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 14400 yuan/ton. On April 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.86%.
1、 Price market description
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a steady and slight upward trend. On the 1st and 2nd of the month, the price of organic silicon DMC jumped from 14000 yuan/ton to 14300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.14%, marking the beginning of this round of upward trend. From the 3rd to the 7th, the market maintained a high sideways trend of 14300 yuan/ton, and the market entered a stage of stabilizing and rising prices. On the 8th, the price of organic silicon DMC was slightly raised again to 14400 yuan/ton. The increase during the cycle has expanded to 2.86%, and the market continues to stabilize and strengthen.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: Large factories raise prices+industry conference consensus support
On April 3rd, the domestic organic silicon industry conference was held in Jinan, and the industry reached a consensus on a slight price increase. Top manufacturers in Shandong implemented a strategy of closing down and raising prices, and spot auction prices continued to rise. The tight supply of spot goods in the market pushed up prices and provided clear price guidance for the market.
Starting from the end of 2025, the consensus on energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry has been reached, and the market environment and supply-demand pattern have gradually improved. Currently, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively low, and the contraction of the supply side provides support for prices. Market profits have been restored, and enterprise profits have improved.
Demand side: downstream replenishment+emerging fields driving
Downstream silicone and silicone oil product enterprises have increased their purchasing enthusiasm to meet the pre Spring Festival order stocking demand, especially in the high-end fields of new energy and electronics, which has driven the actual demand for silicone DMC and shifted the supply and demand pattern towards a tighter direction.
Cost side: Upstream raw material price increase driving
In early January, the cost side metal silicon market for organic silicon DMC remained stable and consolidated, providing relatively stable cost support for organic silicon DMC.
3、 Future forecast
Forecast prospects based on supply and demand and cost aspects
Currently, the market for organic silicon DMC is supported by supply, demand, and costs. In the short term (1-2 weeks), the market price of organic silicon DMC is expected to maintain a high level of operation, and further upward movement is not ruled out. In the medium to long term (3-4 weeks), attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, changes in the operating rates of major factories, and fluctuations in raw material prices. If demand continues to recover, prices are expected to continue their upward trend; If downstream procurement is weak, prices may enter high volatility.

Since 2026, the natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen, with the price center steadily shifting upwards compared to 2025. As of April 7th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16933 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.37% from 15341 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. ​
From January to February, overseas rubber cutting was not smooth due to weather conditions, and coupled with the domestic cutting period, natural rubber raw material prices remained high both domestically and internationally, providing cost support for natural rubber; In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream tire companies has declined, raw material consumption has slowed down, and coupled with the concentration of imported goods at ports, as of March 29, 2026, China’s natural rubber social inventory is 1.35 million tons, which has formed a negative pressure on natural rubber; Under the comprehensive influence, the price of natural rubber fluctuated slightly upwards.
After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has significantly increased, supported by the demand for natural rubber. As of the week of April 3, the operating load of domestic tire companies for semi steel tires was 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 7.2%; Starting from late March, Yunnan and Hainan production areas began early trial cutting, but the overall increase in new rubber supply was limited, and the price of essential support rubber fell first and then rose. ​
On the supply side, global production growth is limited. ANRPC data shows that global natural rubber production is expected to reach 15.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. However, Thailand and Indonesia are experiencing weak production due to aging rubber trees, diseases, and labor shortages. On the demand side, the global automotive and tire industry is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by domestic policies on new energy vehicles and the trade in of old cars to drive tire consumption. The global consumption is expected to be 15.6 million tons, with a supply-demand gap of about 400000 tons. For six consecutive years, the supply has exceeded demand, forming the core support for rubber prices. ​
Market forecast: From the spot and moving average price charts of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the natural rubber spot price curve has been above the 30 day and 60 day moving averages since mid March 2026. It only gradually crosses the 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day curves starting from March 16th, and then gradually returns to above the 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day curves after a brief dip. From the perspective of comprehensive spot prices and moving averages, natural rubber may experience slight adjustments in the short term due to factors such as Middle East geopolitical shocks and weather disturbances. In the medium term, the natural rubber market is expected to show an overall upward trend in the next 1-2 months, with strong support from the 30 day and 60 day curves. In the long run, the natural rubber market in 2026 is in a cyclical upward phase, with strong fluctuations throughout the year and a significant upward shift in the price center compared to 2025.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has continued to consolidate horizontally in recent times, with stable market operation and stable prices. As of April 7th, the benchmark price of 65% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 3000 yuan/ton, up 22.45% month on month and down 11.76% year-on-year, with no significant fluctuations and a stable market focus.
Supply side: Enterprise production plan adjustment to support price stability
From March 31st to April 1st, some production facilities on the supply side were still under maintenance, and the low inventory situation did not change, continuing to provide support for the market. On April 2nd, although most formic acid manufacturers have resumed production, they have not yet entered a state of full load operation. The pattern of low inventory continues, and the supporting role continues to exist, which together constitute an important supporting factor for price stability.
Demand side: Stable performance, driven by essential needs
Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions and low enthusiasm, mainly focusing on acquiring and replenishing goods for essential needs. There has been no large-scale centralized procurement behavior, and the game forces between supply and demand are tending towards equilibrium.
Future forecast
Based on the prediction of the Business Society’s spot trading system, the current price is at a high level both in the short and long term,
The current price moving average shows a complete bullish trend (price>10 day line>20 day line>30 day line), with an upward trend in the medium term.
Overall, the price of formic acid has limited room for increase, with sufficient support below. It is expected to continue to operate in a sideways trend, and specific changes in market supply and demand need to be monitored.