Recently, the polyethylene market has been in a pattern of high volatility and first strong and then weak. According to the testing conducted by Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8880 yuan/ton on April 6th and 8848 yuan/ton on April 10th, a decrease of 0.36%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11650 yuan/ton on April 6th and 11883 yuan/ton on April 10th, an increase of 2.00%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 6th was 10262 yuan/ton, and on April 10th it was 10487 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19%.
Strong support on the cost side: The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to high international crude oil prices. The continuous loss of profits in the production of oil-based PE has forced domestic petrochemical enterprises to concentrate on reducing losses and conducting spring inspections. The strong expectation of supply side contraction has boosted the market’s bullish sentiment.
Supply side structural contraction: no new production, concentrated spring inspections, and declining output. Middle Eastern sources of goods are reduced and arrivals are low. As of early April, the social inventory of polyethylene was 623200 tons, slightly increasing month on month, and the high inventory suppressed the upward space of prices.
The demand side continues to be weak: the peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and downstream orders such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials are average. There is a strong resistance to high prices, and procurement has shifted to “on-demand, just in need”, resulting in weak high price transactions. LLDPE is mainly used for agricultural film, and is most directly affected by the end of the peak season for agricultural film, with the most obvious negative impact on the demand side. Therefore, it has the largest decline after rising.
It is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate at a high level, with a tug of war between long and short positions, and both cost support and demand drag will coexist. The short-term trend is strong, but caution should be exercised against a pullback.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 8, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 14400 yuan/ton. On April 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.86%.
1、 Price market description
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a steady and slight upward trend. On the 1st and 2nd of the month, the price of organic silicon DMC jumped from 14000 yuan/ton to 14300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.14%, marking the beginning of this round of upward trend. From the 3rd to the 7th, the market maintained a high sideways trend of 14300 yuan/ton, and the market entered a stage of stabilizing and rising prices. On the 8th, the price of organic silicon DMC was slightly raised again to 14400 yuan/ton. The increase during the cycle has expanded to 2.86%, and the market continues to stabilize and strengthen.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: Large factories raise prices+industry conference consensus support
On April 3rd, the domestic organic silicon industry conference was held in Jinan, and the industry reached a consensus on a slight price increase. Top manufacturers in Shandong implemented a strategy of closing down and raising prices, and spot auction prices continued to rise. The tight supply of spot goods in the market pushed up prices and provided clear price guidance for the market.
Starting from the end of 2025, the consensus on energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry has been reached, and the market environment and supply-demand pattern have gradually improved. Currently, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively low, and the contraction of the supply side provides support for prices. Market profits have been restored, and enterprise profits have improved.
Demand side: downstream replenishment+emerging fields driving
Downstream silicone and silicone oil product enterprises have increased their purchasing enthusiasm to meet the pre Spring Festival order stocking demand, especially in the high-end fields of new energy and electronics, which has driven the actual demand for silicone DMC and shifted the supply and demand pattern towards a tighter direction.
Cost side: Upstream raw material price increase driving
In early January, the cost side metal silicon market for organic silicon DMC remained stable and consolidated, providing relatively stable cost support for organic silicon DMC.
3、 Future forecast
Forecast prospects based on supply and demand and cost aspects
Currently, the market for organic silicon DMC is supported by supply, demand, and costs. In the short term (1-2 weeks), the market price of organic silicon DMC is expected to maintain a high level of operation, and further upward movement is not ruled out. In the medium to long term (3-4 weeks), attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, changes in the operating rates of major factories, and fluctuations in raw material prices. If demand continues to recover, prices are expected to continue their upward trend; If downstream procurement is weak, prices may enter high volatility.

Since 2026, the natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen, with the price center steadily shifting upwards compared to 2025. As of April 7th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16933 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.37% from 15341 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. ​
From January to February, overseas rubber cutting was not smooth due to weather conditions, and coupled with the domestic cutting period, natural rubber raw material prices remained high both domestically and internationally, providing cost support for natural rubber; In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream tire companies has declined, raw material consumption has slowed down, and coupled with the concentration of imported goods at ports, as of March 29, 2026, China’s natural rubber social inventory is 1.35 million tons, which has formed a negative pressure on natural rubber; Under the comprehensive influence, the price of natural rubber fluctuated slightly upwards.
After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has significantly increased, supported by the demand for natural rubber. As of the week of April 3, the operating load of domestic tire companies for semi steel tires was 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 7.2%; Starting from late March, Yunnan and Hainan production areas began early trial cutting, but the overall increase in new rubber supply was limited, and the price of essential support rubber fell first and then rose. ​
On the supply side, global production growth is limited. ANRPC data shows that global natural rubber production is expected to reach 15.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. However, Thailand and Indonesia are experiencing weak production due to aging rubber trees, diseases, and labor shortages. On the demand side, the global automotive and tire industry is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by domestic policies on new energy vehicles and the trade in of old cars to drive tire consumption. The global consumption is expected to be 15.6 million tons, with a supply-demand gap of about 400000 tons. For six consecutive years, the supply has exceeded demand, forming the core support for rubber prices. ​
Market forecast: From the spot and moving average price charts of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the natural rubber spot price curve has been above the 30 day and 60 day moving averages since mid March 2026. It only gradually crosses the 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day curves starting from March 16th, and then gradually returns to above the 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day curves after a brief dip. From the perspective of comprehensive spot prices and moving averages, natural rubber may experience slight adjustments in the short term due to factors such as Middle East geopolitical shocks and weather disturbances. In the medium term, the natural rubber market is expected to show an overall upward trend in the next 1-2 months, with strong support from the 30 day and 60 day curves. In the long run, the natural rubber market in 2026 is in a cyclical upward phase, with strong fluctuations throughout the year and a significant upward shift in the price center compared to 2025.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has continued to consolidate horizontally in recent times, with stable market operation and stable prices. As of April 7th, the benchmark price of 65% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 3000 yuan/ton, up 22.45% month on month and down 11.76% year-on-year, with no significant fluctuations and a stable market focus.
Supply side: Enterprise production plan adjustment to support price stability
From March 31st to April 1st, some production facilities on the supply side were still under maintenance, and the low inventory situation did not change, continuing to provide support for the market. On April 2nd, although most formic acid manufacturers have resumed production, they have not yet entered a state of full load operation. The pattern of low inventory continues, and the supporting role continues to exist, which together constitute an important supporting factor for price stability.
Demand side: Stable performance, driven by essential needs
Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions and low enthusiasm, mainly focusing on acquiring and replenishing goods for essential needs. There has been no large-scale centralized procurement behavior, and the game forces between supply and demand are tending towards equilibrium.
Future forecast
Based on the prediction of the Business Society’s spot trading system, the current price is at a high level both in the short and long term,
The current price moving average shows a complete bullish trend (price>10 day line>20 day line>30 day line), with an upward trend in the medium term.
Overall, the price of formic acid has limited room for increase, with sufficient support below. It is expected to continue to operate in a sideways trend, and specific changes in market supply and demand need to be monitored.

1、 Review of Potassium Chloride Market Trends This Week
price trend
According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) on April 3rd was 3616.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and the price remained flat for several consecutive days. From a longer-term perspective, starting from around 3500 yuan/ton in early January 2026, the price gradually climbed to a temporary high point from the end of February to early March (with a peak of about 3696 yuan/ton in the chart), then showed a high-level correction and entered a volatile pattern, currently fluctuating narrowly within the range of 3610-3620 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand fundamentals
Supply side: This week, the domestic potassium chloride production side maintained a high load, with a weekly operating rate of about 62.5% and a weekly output of about 106500 tons, a month on month increase of about 2.3%. In terms of domestic production, leading enterprises such as Salt Lake Corporation and Zangge Potassium Fertilizer have fully resumed work and production, with production facilities running smoothly. Potassium fertilizer products continue to be offline and transported nationwide.
In terms of imports, the domestic import volume of potassium fertilizer continues to grow. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the import volume of potassium fertilizer increased by 16.2% year-on-year, and the monthly average import volume of potassium chloride reached 1.44 million tons (physical quantity). As of April 2nd, the total port inventory of imported potassium chloride at the port was 2.4291 million tons, an increase of 0.57% compared to the previous month. Although the port’s delivery volume continued to be fast, some ports still had a small amount of new goods to supplement, and the total amount slightly increased. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to be implemented. As of March 30th, the amount of guaranteed supply during the spring plowing period has reached 2.01 million tons, effectively ensuring market supply.
Demand side: Relatively limited support. The weekly operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is about 50.6%, which is at a high level. However, their procurement of potassium fertilizer is mainly based on on-demand replenishment mode, which makes it difficult to effectively stimulate the trade market. At present, it is the end of spring plowing and fertilizer use, and the demand in Northeast China is coming to an end. Border trade and China Europe freight trains continue to receive goods, further intensifying market competition for goods. The flat demand is the direct reason why prices are difficult to strengthen at present.
2、 Analyzing the market price of potassium chloride using the Business Society’s spot trading platform
Location characteristics: Potassium chloride is at a high level in the short term (10/20 days), with significant overselling; In the mid-term (30/60/90 days), it is at a medium low level, showing an overall mismatch pattern of short, high, medium, and low. The price is at a high level during the annual cycle, approaching the high point of the year, with limited space above and sufficient support below, indicating upward pressure.
Trend characteristics: The current price is intertwined with multiple moving averages, the previous upward trend has ended, the long and short forces are balanced, the market has entered a transitional period of oscillation, there is no clear direction at present, and the risk of falling back still exists in the short term due to the suppression of moving averages.
Buy judgment: 10/20 day cycle high, no buy signal; The price moving average is entangled and has not formed an upward bullish pattern, which does not meet the buying conditions.
Based on the comprehensive conclusion, potassium chloride is currently neutral and bearish. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach and wait for the price to stabilize at the mid to low levels in the medium term and for the moving average to form a bullish trend before choosing an opportunity to operate.
integrated forecasting
In the short term, domestic potassium chloride prices are expected to continue a stable to weak pattern. Domestic potassium has stable production and limited price fluctuations; Due to the rebound of port inventory and the release of national reserves, imported potassium may experience price looseness in some areas. On April 3rd, the benchmark price remained unchanged from the beginning of the month, indicating a short-term long short balance. However, insufficient support from the demand side and continued efforts to ensure supply policies will limit the upward potential of prices. If international shipping costs continue to rise or import arrivals are delayed, it may temporarily push up the price of imported potassium, but domestic policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices will limit the increase.