Recently, the lithium carbonate market has experienced a strong upward trend in the early stage, ushering in a phase of correction. The price has dropped from the highest of 200000 yuan/ton this year to 177000 yuan/ton on May 26th, a month on month increase of 2.91% and a year-on-year increase of 183%. Although the price has fallen, there has been a significant increase in spot transactions, and the supply and demand fundamentals still support the strong price trend.
The contraction trend of the supply side remains unchanged, while variables are frequent
Lithium ore spot prices continue to be tight, with large lithium salt factories accelerating delivery and locking in raw materials for the third quarter ahead of schedule. Port inventories continue to deplete and are now at historic lows. Although lithium mines in Zimbabwe have been launched, it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of spot goods in the short term. Coupled with the delay in resuming production of domestic ore bodies, supply side disturbances still exist. At the same time, mines such as Bald Hill in Australia launched a resumption plan, breaking the market’s unanimous expectation of a continued shortage of lithium resources, and market sentiment immediately adjusted.
The peak season characteristics on the demand side are prominent, and the industrial chain is imbalanced
The demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets continued to improve from May to June, with downstream production increasing month on month. Battery companies concentrated on purchasing at low prices, driving a surge in spot transactions. The industry expects that the supply and demand of lithium carbonate will continue to deplete in the second quarter, with demand growth rate higher than supply growth rate, and the fundamentals maintaining a strong pattern.
With the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices, the pressure on downstream industrial chains has surged
In terms of power batteries, the cost of lithium carbonate has increased by about 8000-12000 yuan per vehicle; If transmitted to the terminal, the car price needs to be increased by 15000-25000 yuan. Starting from March this year, many new energy vehicle brands such as BYD, Tesla, Xiaomi, Changan Qiyuan, NIO, and Ideal have coincidentally raised their new car prices/pre-sale prices or tightened terminal discounts, covering multiple main models such as pure electric and hybrid, ranging from 1000 yuan to 20000 yuan.
In terms of energy storage, when the lithium price is 200000 yuan/ton, the system cost increases by 16.5% -23.1%, while the industry average gross profit margin is only 18%, and profits are basically swallowed up. This dilemma has been exposed in the wave of abandoned bids for projects in various regions. According to incomplete statistics, more than 200 energy storage projects have been cut off nationwide since 2026, and at least 6GWh projects have had their bids suspended.
Overall, the price of lithium carbonate has surged in the early stage, making it susceptible to market sentiment disturbances and frequent supply side variables, which may continue to adjust. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |

