This week (January 5th, 2026.05-01.09), polyester bottle flakes showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with overall stability. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 9th, the average price in East China was 6075 yuan/ton.
1、 Cost side: Raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are fluctuating, with a month on month increase of 178 yuan/ton, and processing fees are under pressure.
2、 Supply side: stable operation+local tightening, overall loose
Operating rate: This week’s operating rate was 73.36% (month on month+0.31%), with a production of approximately 335700 tons, indicating sufficient overall supply.
Device dynamics: Maintenance and restart coexist, with partial tightening in stages (such as short-term shutdowns of some large factories), supporting regional quotations (such as stable 6090 in South China).
Inventory and circulation: Port and factory inventory are neutral, spot circulation in East China is smooth, while in South China it is tight, resulting in regional price differences (South China is 50-60 yuan/ton higher than East China).
3、 On the demand side, the main focus is on replenishing inventory for urgent needs, without large-scale stocking
Downstream rhythm: beverage/packaging essential order support, small order replenishment; The main beverage enterprises have sufficient stock, but no centralized stock, and weak willingness to chase price increases.
Transaction characteristics: There is a significant price difference between the quoted price (5980-6130 vs 5930-5950), and transactions are concentrated between 6030-6090, making it difficult to increase volume.
Export and substitution: Export orders remain stable, and the increase in supply of recycled PET has suppressed the original bottle flakes, limiting the room for price rebound.
Policies and Seasons: Pre Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, and the pace of restocking is slowing down; Industry self-discipline and expected production cuts have an impact on production, indirectly affecting prices.
Overall, Shengyi Society expects the short-term consolidation of polyester bottle chips to be mainly weak, with spot water bottle grade (factory tax included) mainstream in East China priced at 5980-6080 yuan/ton,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of DOP was 7325.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 10.95% from 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. In 2025, the price of isooctanol first stabilized and then fell, with a slight rebound and increase at the end of the year. The price center for the whole year has significantly decreased compared to 2024.
Supply side: overcapacity, low operating rate consolidation
In 2025, the total domestic DOP production capacity will be approximately 2.5 million tons per year. While new production capacity will be put into operation in 2025, there will still be production capacity that will be withdrawn. The new production capacity will mainly be concentrated in the expansion projects of top enterprises; The operating rate of DOP enterprises in 2025 fluctuates between 40% and 70%, with an overall operating rate of less than 60%. Overall, there is overcapacity in DOP enterprises, and the operating rate is consolidating at a low level.
On the cost side: raw material prices continue to weaken
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of isooctanol was 6916.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1. The average price of isooctanol in 2025 is 7249.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.69% from the average price of 9889.58 yuan/ton in 2024, reaching a new low in nearly five years. The overcapacity of isooctanol, sufficient spot supply, and continuous concessions from businesses have led to a continuous decline in isooctanol prices, becoming the main driving force behind the cost reduction of DOP.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of phthalic anhydride was 5966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 9.60% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1. Affected by the decline in the price of ortho xylene and the oversupply of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated downward throughout the year, with a slight rebound in the second half of December.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of DOP has decreased. The price of DOP will fluctuate and fall in 2025. In the short term, in the future, in the first quarter of 2026, the prices of raw materials for the Spring Festival replenishment will increase, and DOP prices will fluctuate and rise. In the long run, the supply side has limited new production capacity, and the relaxation of real estate policies on the demand side may bring marginal improvement. Demand is expected to rebound, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will consolidate strongly in 2026.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from the end of December, with the support of favorable factors, the domestic adipic acid market has steadily risen. On December 26th, the average market price of adipic acid was 6833 yuan/ton. On January 6th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7266 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.34%.
Lido supports steady rise in domestic adipic acid market
Due to the continuous decline in the previous adipic acid market, it has already been at a low level. Starting from the end of December, the market for adipic acid has gradually risen and continued to rise, with the average market price reaching around 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 500 yuan/ton. The current upward trend is mainly boosted by the raw material pure benzene market, and the terminal rigid demand is still acceptable.
Let’s analyze whether the adipic acid market can continue to rise in the future?
Supply side: The operating rate of domestic manufacturers remains at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient. Although some individual devices may undergo routine maintenance, the overall supply is secure. Social inventory and factory inventory need to be digested. Cautious attitude towards downstream stocking: In the context of uncertainty in the economic environment, downstream users generally adopt a “buy as you go” strategy, and the possibility of large-scale centralized stocking is low, which makes it difficult to form a sustained market pull.
Demand side: From New Year’s Day to Spring Festival, downstream nylon and polyurethane will gradually enter the off-season of production. The factory operating rate will decrease, mainly to fulfill existing orders and pre holiday stocking, with limited expected new orders. The terminal industry (spinning) is also in the pre holiday closing stage and has a weak willingness to purchase raw materials.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid January, the rigid demand in the terminal industry was average, and the support of the raw material market was limited. Therefore, the market for adipic acid may weaken in the future.

According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, at the end of 2025, the price of formic acid declined, and as of January 5, 2016, 85% of the company’s domestic industrial grade formic acid benchmark price was 2300 yuan / ton, down 8.6% from 2500 yuan / ton on December 24, 2015.
Recent domestic formal acid market price movements can be clearly divided into two core stages, the overall presentation of the characteristics of “rapid downward stability”:
The first phase is the price downward phase (December 24-December 25). On December 24, the domestic formic acid market was stable and the mainstream trading price was maintained at 2500 yuan / ton, but at this time the market has hidden downward risks. With the completion of the maintenance of the main unit in Chatecheng, the new production capacity in Hubei Jingzhou was realized, and the supply and demand contradictions intensified. The next day (December 25) The market price dropped significantly, the mainstream trading price fell to 2300 yuan / ton, a single-day drop of 200 yuan / ton, a drop of nearly 8%, the downward trend of the market is clear.
The second phase is the lateral finishing phase (December 26-January 5). Since December 26, the domestic formal acid market entered the lateral finishing situation, and the mainstream trading price continued to stabilize at 2300 yuan / ton. During this period, despite the increasing pressure on the supply side, the price did not change significantly, and the market entered a short-term supply and demand stagnation.
Core Impact Factor Analysis
(1) Supply side: production capacity release overlapping inventory is high, market relaxation pattern has been determined
Recently, the supply side of the formic acid market has continued to expand, becoming the core factor of price suppression. On the one hand, the new production capacity has been released, the main production unit has been repaired and restored to full load operation, and the new production capacity in Hubei Jingzhou has been gradually raised to full load after the smooth deployment. The Hubei factory alone has increased the domestic daily supply by 600 tons, and the overall supply of goods has increased significantly. On the other hand, the inventory pressure is high, the initial backlog inventory maintains a medium to high level and is not fully digested, and the new production capacity further intensifies the accumulation of inventory, and the enterprises go to Inventory pressure continues to climb. In this context, manufacturers have actively lowered the quotation to relieve inventory pressure. Although the quotation is temporary, the loosening behavior such as low-price targeted supply has reflected the passive situation on the supply side.
(2) Demand side: strong expectations, low purchasing willingness constrains price recovery
The weak performance on the demand side further exacerbated the supply and demand contradiction in the market. Since December 24, downstream buyers have generally held an optimistic attitude, and the trading atmosphere continues to be cold. After the price decline on December 25, the optimistic mood in the terminal market has not eased, but has grown stronger. Most buyers tend to wait for prices to stabilize and buy again, resulting in a weak market procurement willingness. Proactive procurement behavior, it is difficult to form effective demand momentum to support the price recovery.

The analyst believes that in combination with the current market supply and demand pattern and price system changes, the domestic market for formic acid is still dominated by “stable and weakening” in the short term, and there is a possibility of further weakening of prices. Specifically, it is still necessary to pay attention to market supply and demand changes.

In 2025, the production capacity of nitrile rubber in China will increase slightly, mainly due to the 40000 tons/year new installation of Alangtai Rubber being put into production in January, while its 30000 tons/year old unit will be withdrawn in April. The total production capacity of nitrile rubber in 2025 is 295000 tons, with an increase of 3.51%. The estimated supply of nitrile rubber in China is expected to reach a historic high.
After a small consumption trough in 2024, the demand for nitrile rubber will see a slight increase again in 2025. On the one hand, it is driven by the domestic construction machinery industry and the automotive industry, which in turn drives domestic consumption. On the other hand, downstream enterprises are gradually increasing their overseas demand expansion, further increasing the consumption of nitrile rubber. From the perspective of consumption structure, in 2025, the demand for nitrile rubber will still be dominated by automotive and industrial seals/hoses, accounting for about 70%, followed by foam/shoe material consumption accounting for 15%, and medical/protective and other consumption accounting for 15%.
The raw material cost of nitrile rubber (NBR) accounts for 75-80% (60-65% butadiene, 20-25% acrylonitrile). Affected by raw material prices, the overall cost of nitrile rubber will gradually decrease from high to low in 2025. The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 will experience oversupply, price decline, and a turning point in the industry, marking a transition from “shortage” to “surplus”. In 2025, the price of acrylonitrile opened high and fell low, with an annual average price of approximately 8726 yuan/ton at ports in East China, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%. In 2025, the newly added production capacity of butadiene (about 980000 tons) far exceeds the downstream demand increment, and the overall price is declining. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price of butadiene will drop from 10800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 7733 yuan/ton at the end of the year in 2025, with an overall decrease of 28.40%.
In 2025, the nitrile rubber market will show a trend of “rising first, then suppressing, and fluctuating downward”. From January to mid February, raw material prices rose, and cost supported nitrile rubber prices rose to a high point of 17175 yuan/ton this year; From mid February to early May, the high prices of raw materials fell and demand fell short of expectations, causing the price of nitrile rubber to drop to a temporary low of 15912 yuan/ton; Although demand was weak in May, the price of nitrile rubber quickly rebounded to 16850 yuan/ton after hitting bottom, driven by a significant rebound in butadiene prices; From June to early October, on the one hand, nitrile rubber manufacturers carried out maintenance and supply shortages, and on the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene acrylonitrile decreased. The cost of nitrile rubber also decreased, and the price of nitrile rubber narrowly dropped to 16600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48%; From early October to the end of the year, the maintenance of nitrile rubber plants gradually ended, and the supply rebounded. The traditional off-season demand downstream was weak, and the price of nitrile rubber once again fell to the lowest of 15525 yuan/ton this year. At the end of the year, the overall decline was 6.33% compared to the beginning of the year.
Outlook for the Nitrile Rubber Market in 2026
Adequate supply and slow recovery of demand for nitrile rubber in 2026
At present, there is no news of the production plan for the new nitrile rubber plant in 2026. It is expected that the overall supply of nitrile rubber in China will be stable and sufficient by 2026. The overall recovery of demand for nitrile rubber in 2026 is slow, mainly driven by the construction machinery and automotive industries. In addition, in 2026, the export growth of nitrile rubber is expected to be under pressure due to India’s anti-dumping policies, high base, and trade environment disturbances.

The cost of nitrile rubber may continue to decline in 2026
Due to low crude oil prices, equipment maintenance, and the release of new production capacity, the raw material butadiene is expected to show a trend of first rising and then falling, and an overall downward trend in 2026; On the one hand, acrylonitrile production capacity continues to expand, and on the other hand, downstream ABS expectations are weak, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend in acrylonitrile prices in 2026. The overall cost of nitrile rubber has decreased compared to 2025.
In summary, the nitrile rubber market in 2026 will face the reality of weak costs, abundant supply, and slow demand recovery. Against this backdrop, the price center of nitrile rubber in 2026 will slightly decrease compared to 2025, and the market will mainly fluctuate downwards throughout the year, with prices fluctuating between 13500 and 17000 yuan/ton. The profit margin of enterprises may be squeezed, and industry competition will tend to be more focused on technology and high value-added products.