Recently, the East China propylene market has shown a clear upward trend after the New Year’s Day holiday. After a brief adjustment in market prices, driven by favorable supply and demand fundamentals, the focus of transactions has steadily shifted upwards. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5871.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton).
The mainstream market prices have shown a significant rebound compared to before the holiday. The current upward trend is mainly due to sustained cost pressure, positive news on the supply side, and phased promotion of post holiday replenishment demand. The spot market is showing a tightening trend, and there may still be some upward space for prices in the short term.
1、 Market situation: The price center of gravity has shifted upwards, and regional price differences are significant
Currently, the overall atmosphere in the East China propylene market is relatively strong. Specifically, the listing price of Sinopec East China Company has remained stable at 5950 yuan/ton, becoming an important reference for the market. In terms of actual transactions, there is a certain price difference between regions: the delivery price in Jiangsu region is relatively high, with a reference range of around 6200-6250 yuan/ton; However, the container prices in Zhejiang region are relatively lower, with a reference range of around 5950-6000 yuan/ton. The price difference in this region reflects the degree of local supply and demand tightness and the difference in logistics costs. Overall, the acceptance of current prices by market buying is acceptable, and trading activities are mainly focused on rigid demand and cautious replenishment.
2、 The core driving force behind the rise: the trio of cost, supply, and demand
The current price increase is not caused by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance between cost, supply, and demand.
Cost side:
Form a solid bottom support. The price of the main raw material methanol continues to rise. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2265.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.64% compared to the beginning of this month (2207.50 yuan/ton). The theoretical profit of the process route for methanol to propylene has fallen into deep losses, and the extent of the losses is still expanding.
The high production costs greatly enhance the willingness of production enterprises to raise prices, providing a solid bottom support for the market. At the same time, as a barometer, the continuous upward trend of propylene market prices in Shandong has also had a positive impact on the mentality of participants in the East China market, forming a regional linkage upward trend.
Supply side:
Presenting a tight balance pattern is the key to driving up prices. Recently, the market supply has been squeezed by both fluctuations in domestic equipment and a reduction in imported goods.
Domestically, there has been a significant contraction in the supply of goods within the region.
In terms of imports, due to the reduction in upstream equipment production in Japan and South Korea, the supply of propylene to ports in East China has also decreased. The simultaneous tightening of internal and external supply has strengthened the market’s expectation of future tight supply, leading to strong reluctance among holders to sell and further exacerbating the tense atmosphere in the spot market.
Demand side:
Provide phased assistance. There is a customary demand for replenishing inventory in downstream factories after the holiday, which has brought considerable procurement growth to the market. At the same time, the prices of major downstream products such as polypropylene, n-butanol, and octanol have also rebounded, which has improved the profitability of downstream industries to a certain extent, thereby increasing their tolerance and acceptance of the rise in raw material propylene prices, making the cost transmission process relatively smooth in the short term.

On January 12th, the benchmark price of PP (wire drawing) in Shengyi Society was 6376.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.35% compared to the beginning of this month (6170.00 yuan/ton).
On January 12th, the benchmark price of n-butanol (industrial grade) in Shengyi Society was 5773.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.49% compared to the beginning of this month (5633.33 yuan/ton).
On January 12th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyi Society was 6983.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the beginning of this month (6916.67 yuan/ton).
3、 Outlook for the future: support and pressure coexist, upward space and risks coexist
Looking ahead to the short-term market, propylene prices are expected to maintain a strong consolidation, but the upward potential is also constrained.
The support mainly comes from the tight supply of spot goods, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, concentrated equipment maintenance, limited imports, coupled with a high cost line to support the bottom, and the existence of an upward trend in prices.
However, upward pressure is also accumulating. One is that high prices may erode downstream profits. If the main downstream falls into losses, it will trigger resistance and slow down procurement, thereby suppressing the upward trend. Secondly, cost support may weaken, and international crude oil is facing expectations of oversupply. If the prices of raw materials such as propane decline, the support logic will loosen.
Overall, tight costs and supply continue to dominate the market in the near future, but price increases will gradually trigger negative feedback from the demand side. The subsequent space and sustainability will highly depend on the follow-up of downstream profit changes and actual purchasing power. Close attention should be paid to key indicators such as device dynamics, downstream operations, and profits.

This week (January 5th, 2026.05-01.09), polyester bottle flakes showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with overall stability. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 9th, the average price in East China was 6075 yuan/ton.
1、 Cost side: Raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are fluctuating, with a month on month increase of 178 yuan/ton, and processing fees are under pressure.
2、 Supply side: stable operation+local tightening, overall loose
Operating rate: This week’s operating rate was 73.36% (month on month+0.31%), with a production of approximately 335700 tons, indicating sufficient overall supply.
Device dynamics: Maintenance and restart coexist, with partial tightening in stages (such as short-term shutdowns of some large factories), supporting regional quotations (such as stable 6090 in South China).
Inventory and circulation: Port and factory inventory are neutral, spot circulation in East China is smooth, while in South China it is tight, resulting in regional price differences (South China is 50-60 yuan/ton higher than East China).
3、 On the demand side, the main focus is on replenishing inventory for urgent needs, without large-scale stocking
Downstream rhythm: beverage/packaging essential order support, small order replenishment; The main beverage enterprises have sufficient stock, but no centralized stock, and weak willingness to chase price increases.
Transaction characteristics: There is a significant price difference between the quoted price (5980-6130 vs 5930-5950), and transactions are concentrated between 6030-6090, making it difficult to increase volume.
Export and substitution: Export orders remain stable, and the increase in supply of recycled PET has suppressed the original bottle flakes, limiting the room for price rebound.
Policies and Seasons: Pre Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, and the pace of restocking is slowing down; Industry self-discipline and expected production cuts have an impact on production, indirectly affecting prices.
Overall, Shengyi Society expects the short-term consolidation of polyester bottle chips to be mainly weak, with spot water bottle grade (factory tax included) mainstream in East China priced at 5980-6080 yuan/ton,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of DOP was 7325.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 10.95% from 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. In 2025, the price of isooctanol first stabilized and then fell, with a slight rebound and increase at the end of the year. The price center for the whole year has significantly decreased compared to 2024.
Supply side: overcapacity, low operating rate consolidation
In 2025, the total domestic DOP production capacity will be approximately 2.5 million tons per year. While new production capacity will be put into operation in 2025, there will still be production capacity that will be withdrawn. The new production capacity will mainly be concentrated in the expansion projects of top enterprises; The operating rate of DOP enterprises in 2025 fluctuates between 40% and 70%, with an overall operating rate of less than 60%. Overall, there is overcapacity in DOP enterprises, and the operating rate is consolidating at a low level.
On the cost side: raw material prices continue to weaken
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of isooctanol was 6916.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1. The average price of isooctanol in 2025 is 7249.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.69% from the average price of 9889.58 yuan/ton in 2024, reaching a new low in nearly five years. The overcapacity of isooctanol, sufficient spot supply, and continuous concessions from businesses have led to a continuous decline in isooctanol prices, becoming the main driving force behind the cost reduction of DOP.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of phthalic anhydride was 5966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 9.60% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1. Affected by the decline in the price of ortho xylene and the oversupply of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated downward throughout the year, with a slight rebound in the second half of December.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of DOP has decreased. The price of DOP will fluctuate and fall in 2025. In the short term, in the future, in the first quarter of 2026, the prices of raw materials for the Spring Festival replenishment will increase, and DOP prices will fluctuate and rise. In the long run, the supply side has limited new production capacity, and the relaxation of real estate policies on the demand side may bring marginal improvement. Demand is expected to rebound, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will consolidate strongly in 2026.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from the end of December, with the support of favorable factors, the domestic adipic acid market has steadily risen. On December 26th, the average market price of adipic acid was 6833 yuan/ton. On January 6th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7266 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.34%.
Lido supports steady rise in domestic adipic acid market
Due to the continuous decline in the previous adipic acid market, it has already been at a low level. Starting from the end of December, the market for adipic acid has gradually risen and continued to rise, with the average market price reaching around 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 500 yuan/ton. The current upward trend is mainly boosted by the raw material pure benzene market, and the terminal rigid demand is still acceptable.
Let’s analyze whether the adipic acid market can continue to rise in the future?
Supply side: The operating rate of domestic manufacturers remains at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient. Although some individual devices may undergo routine maintenance, the overall supply is secure. Social inventory and factory inventory need to be digested. Cautious attitude towards downstream stocking: In the context of uncertainty in the economic environment, downstream users generally adopt a “buy as you go” strategy, and the possibility of large-scale centralized stocking is low, which makes it difficult to form a sustained market pull.
Demand side: From New Year’s Day to Spring Festival, downstream nylon and polyurethane will gradually enter the off-season of production. The factory operating rate will decrease, mainly to fulfill existing orders and pre holiday stocking, with limited expected new orders. The terminal industry (spinning) is also in the pre holiday closing stage and has a weak willingness to purchase raw materials.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid January, the rigid demand in the terminal industry was average, and the support of the raw material market was limited. Therefore, the market for adipic acid may weaken in the future.

According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, at the end of 2025, the price of formic acid declined, and as of January 5, 2016, 85% of the company’s domestic industrial grade formic acid benchmark price was 2300 yuan / ton, down 8.6% from 2500 yuan / ton on December 24, 2015.
Recent domestic formal acid market price movements can be clearly divided into two core stages, the overall presentation of the characteristics of “rapid downward stability”:
The first phase is the price downward phase (December 24-December 25). On December 24, the domestic formic acid market was stable and the mainstream trading price was maintained at 2500 yuan / ton, but at this time the market has hidden downward risks. With the completion of the maintenance of the main unit in Chatecheng, the new production capacity in Hubei Jingzhou was realized, and the supply and demand contradictions intensified. The next day (December 25) The market price dropped significantly, the mainstream trading price fell to 2300 yuan / ton, a single-day drop of 200 yuan / ton, a drop of nearly 8%, the downward trend of the market is clear.
The second phase is the lateral finishing phase (December 26-January 5). Since December 26, the domestic formal acid market entered the lateral finishing situation, and the mainstream trading price continued to stabilize at 2300 yuan / ton. During this period, despite the increasing pressure on the supply side, the price did not change significantly, and the market entered a short-term supply and demand stagnation.
Core Impact Factor Analysis
(1) Supply side: production capacity release overlapping inventory is high, market relaxation pattern has been determined
Recently, the supply side of the formic acid market has continued to expand, becoming the core factor of price suppression. On the one hand, the new production capacity has been released, the main production unit has been repaired and restored to full load operation, and the new production capacity in Hubei Jingzhou has been gradually raised to full load after the smooth deployment. The Hubei factory alone has increased the domestic daily supply by 600 tons, and the overall supply of goods has increased significantly. On the other hand, the inventory pressure is high, the initial backlog inventory maintains a medium to high level and is not fully digested, and the new production capacity further intensifies the accumulation of inventory, and the enterprises go to Inventory pressure continues to climb. In this context, manufacturers have actively lowered the quotation to relieve inventory pressure. Although the quotation is temporary, the loosening behavior such as low-price targeted supply has reflected the passive situation on the supply side.
(2) Demand side: strong expectations, low purchasing willingness constrains price recovery
The weak performance on the demand side further exacerbated the supply and demand contradiction in the market. Since December 24, downstream buyers have generally held an optimistic attitude, and the trading atmosphere continues to be cold. After the price decline on December 25, the optimistic mood in the terminal market has not eased, but has grown stronger. Most buyers tend to wait for prices to stabilize and buy again, resulting in a weak market procurement willingness. Proactive procurement behavior, it is difficult to form effective demand momentum to support the price recovery.

The analyst believes that in combination with the current market supply and demand pattern and price system changes, the domestic market for formic acid is still dominated by “stable and weakening” in the short term, and there is a possibility of further weakening of prices. Specifically, it is still necessary to pay attention to market supply and demand changes.