1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9884 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 24), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9800 yuan / ton (the average price was 9559 yuan / ton). The average price was 3.29% lower than last week and 20.84% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil weakened, pure benzene in the external market continued to decline, and the support of external news was weak. Domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and supply increases. However, the downstream products suffered a loss in profits, and some units shut down with reduced economy, weakening demand. This week, pure benzene continued to decline, the price difference between SINOPEC pure benzene and local refining enterprises widened, and the prices of Sinopec plants in Shandong and Hebei fell significantly affected by the northern market.
This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9800 yuan / ton (the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced to 9450 yuan / ton).
In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market this week continued a broad downward trend. On Thursday (June 23), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1237 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $107 / ton, or 7.96%; The reference import price in East China was US $1245 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $95 / ton, or 7.09%.
In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising this week. On June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 10679 yuan / ton, down 2.03% from last week and up 17.35% from the same period last year.
Aniline: this week, aniline is stable and small. On June 24, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.21% over last week and an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the purchasing sentiment in the downstream is general, most of them are wait-and-see, and it is expected that the styrene market will fall in the short term.
There is still a possibility of downward movement in the external market. The domestic pure benzene supply increases, the downstream demand weakens, and the pure benzene market sentiment is empty, so there is still a possibility of downward movement. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.