In the first half of April, the TDI market in East China first rose and then fell, with gains giving up. As of April 14th, the average market price in East China was 20100 yuan/ton, and as of April 1st, the average price was 20200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% during the period and an increase of 81.63% year-on-year. Due to high prices, downstream resistance is evident, demand is sluggish, and market transaction prices have loosened.
Supply and demand side: Domestic facilities such as Wanhua maintain medium to high load operation, market inventory is low, domestic demand is average, and foreign demand is good.
On the cost side: The toluene market fluctuates with crude oil prices, with downstream demand for replenishment and average gas purchases, causing toluene prices to fluctuate and decline.
Overall, the TDI market currently has ample supply, weak domestic demand, export support, and low inventory levels, which interact with each other to minimize price fluctuations. Based on the spot market analysis of Shengyi Society, the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average have overlapped, indicating that the market has reached a turning point and the price position is high, with limited upward space. TDI prices may be weakly stabilized and consolidated.

According to data from Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene rubber market has been rising for five consecutive months since November 2025, with the highest price reaching 18140 yuan/ton on April 7th, an increase of 62.69%. As of April 14th, the market price of butadiene rubber was 16640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.27% from its peak.
From November to December 2025, the supply of butadiene rubber in the market will shrink slightly, and the demand for essential goods will be weak, resulting in a slight increase in butadiene rubber prices at the bottom. On the supply side, the average operating load of domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber plants reached 71.44%, and some enterprises stopped for maintenance; On the demand side, downstream tires with all steel tires have started production at around 6.30%, and semi steel tires have started production at around 7.10%, providing overall demand support, but high priced transactions are weak. ​
Starting from January 2026, the market growth rate of butadiene rubber will gradually expand. The core driving factors are concentrated in three aspects: firstly, the downstream actively stocked up before the Lunar New Year, and the tire production rebounded significantly after the holiday, which supported the demand for butadiene rubber; At the end of February, the Middle East conflict led to high international crude oil prices, widening the supply gap of butadiene and driving up the production cost of butadiene rubber; The combination of routine maintenance and rising costs in three enterprises has led to passive production cuts due to losses, further exacerbating supply shortages. ​
From the perspective of the Shunding Rubber Index on Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, starting from mid November 2025, the price curve of Shunding rubber will successively cross the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages, ushering in a 5-month upward cycle for Shunding rubber.
In early April, with the news of the US Iran negotiations, the bullish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market gradually weakened, and the price of butadiene rubber fell from a high level. However, due to some equipment still undergoing maintenance or negative load reduction, the extent of butadiene rubber’s decline was limited under tight supply conditions.
Future forecast
Looking ahead to the future, from an industrial perspective, although the current Middle East conflict has cooled down in the short term, the shipping problem has not been substantially resolved. In addition, the shortage of raw material butadiene has not eased, the supply contraction pattern continues, and downstream tire demand remains stable. Therefore, there is still support for butadiene rubber in the short term. In the medium to long term, with the release of new domestic butadiene production capacity, the tight supply situation is expected to ease. In addition, with the resumption of production of butadiene rubber plants and the commissioning of new production capacity, prices may face downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 3490 yuan/ton and then fell to around 3360 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.72% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 18.62%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.39%. The domestic methanol market trading is still mainly influenced by geopolitics, and the rising sentiment on the futures side is gradually transmitted to the spot market; Supported by the continuous destocking of enterprises, the increasing demand for locally sourced olefins, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices have shown a significant surge.
As of the close on April 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 3089 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3300 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3043 yuan/ton. It closed at 3175 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 27 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1584666, the position is 361418, and the daily increase is -56991.
On the cost side, the overall supply of coal is stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Coal prices are mainly stable, and the cost side is stable. The cost impact is mixed.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, methanol prices continue to rise significantly. Although there has been a decline, the weekly average price remains high. Some downstream industries are struggling to keep up with the trend, and negative feedback from end products is becoming increasingly severe, resulting in a passive narrowing of production profits for most downstream industries. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
Supply side, some enterprise equipment maintenance; Some enterprises have restored their equipment; The overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in production and a rise in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 10th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $679-681/ton, down $10/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 141-143 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 510-512 euros/ton, down 9 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, with the support of fundamental factors such as tight supply and demand patterns and continuous inventory depletion, although the price increase has slowed down, the overall trend will remain strong. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly dominated by strong consolidation.

Recently, the polyethylene market has been in a pattern of high volatility and first strong and then weak. According to the testing conducted by Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8880 yuan/ton on April 6th and 8848 yuan/ton on April 10th, a decrease of 0.36%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11650 yuan/ton on April 6th and 11883 yuan/ton on April 10th, an increase of 2.00%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 6th was 10262 yuan/ton, and on April 10th it was 10487 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19%.
Strong support on the cost side: The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to high international crude oil prices. The continuous loss of profits in the production of oil-based PE has forced domestic petrochemical enterprises to concentrate on reducing losses and conducting spring inspections. The strong expectation of supply side contraction has boosted the market’s bullish sentiment.
Supply side structural contraction: no new production, concentrated spring inspections, and declining output. Middle Eastern sources of goods are reduced and arrivals are low. As of early April, the social inventory of polyethylene was 623200 tons, slightly increasing month on month, and the high inventory suppressed the upward space of prices.
The demand side continues to be weak: the peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and downstream orders such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials are average. There is a strong resistance to high prices, and procurement has shifted to “on-demand, just in need”, resulting in weak high price transactions. LLDPE is mainly used for agricultural film, and is most directly affected by the end of the peak season for agricultural film, with the most obvious negative impact on the demand side. Therefore, it has the largest decline after rising.
It is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate at a high level, with a tug of war between long and short positions, and both cost support and demand drag will coexist. The short-term trend is strong, but caution should be exercised against a pullback.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 8, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 14400 yuan/ton. On April 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.86%.
1、 Price market description
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a steady and slight upward trend. On the 1st and 2nd of the month, the price of organic silicon DMC jumped from 14000 yuan/ton to 14300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.14%, marking the beginning of this round of upward trend. From the 3rd to the 7th, the market maintained a high sideways trend of 14300 yuan/ton, and the market entered a stage of stabilizing and rising prices. On the 8th, the price of organic silicon DMC was slightly raised again to 14400 yuan/ton. The increase during the cycle has expanded to 2.86%, and the market continues to stabilize and strengthen.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: Large factories raise prices+industry conference consensus support
On April 3rd, the domestic organic silicon industry conference was held in Jinan, and the industry reached a consensus on a slight price increase. Top manufacturers in Shandong implemented a strategy of closing down and raising prices, and spot auction prices continued to rise. The tight supply of spot goods in the market pushed up prices and provided clear price guidance for the market.
Starting from the end of 2025, the consensus on energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry has been reached, and the market environment and supply-demand pattern have gradually improved. Currently, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively low, and the contraction of the supply side provides support for prices. Market profits have been restored, and enterprise profits have improved.
Demand side: downstream replenishment+emerging fields driving
Downstream silicone and silicone oil product enterprises have increased their purchasing enthusiasm to meet the pre Spring Festival order stocking demand, especially in the high-end fields of new energy and electronics, which has driven the actual demand for silicone DMC and shifted the supply and demand pattern towards a tighter direction.
Cost side: Upstream raw material price increase driving
In early January, the cost side metal silicon market for organic silicon DMC remained stable and consolidated, providing relatively stable cost support for organic silicon DMC.
3、 Future forecast
Forecast prospects based on supply and demand and cost aspects
Currently, the market for organic silicon DMC is supported by supply, demand, and costs. In the short term (1-2 weeks), the market price of organic silicon DMC is expected to maintain a high level of operation, and further upward movement is not ruled out. In the medium to long term (3-4 weeks), attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, changes in the operating rates of major factories, and fluctuations in raw material prices. If demand continues to recover, prices are expected to continue their upward trend; If downstream procurement is weak, prices may enter high volatility.