1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On November 25, the price of pure benzene was 6700-6950 yuan/ton (the average price was 6784 yuan/ton), and on Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6600 yuan/ton (the average price was 6559 yuan/ton), down 3.32% from last week and up 3.95% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

The fundamentals of pure benzene are poor, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. At the beginning of the week, there were about 141000 tons of pure benzene in East China Port, an increase of about 22000 tons compared with last week.

This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton (down to 6450 yuan/ton in Shandong and Hebei).

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 758 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year-on-year, or 2.94%; The reference import price in East China was 789 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year on year, or 2.83%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is volatile, the supply side of pure benzene is sufficient, and the overall downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will be consolidated. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose many times this week, and the market trading atmosphere improved. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 77100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.68%, up 10.08% from 30 days ago.

As of December 2, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/December 2

Shandong region./7650-7700 yuan/ton

Northeast China/7300-7400 yuan/ton

East China./7250-7300 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the propylene market performed well this week, and the price rose to a stage high. Due to the low price in the early stage, the effect of enterprise destocking was obvious, and the restart time of PDH in the market was delayed, leading to the tight supply of propylene in Shandong. With the steady follow-up of demand, the price of propylene was raised many times. As of this Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong has risen to a high level. With the inflow of low-end goods from the surrounding areas, the resistance to rising has increased. The offer of some enterprises has been slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer of Shandong has been 7650-7700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: On the news side, crude oil prices stopped rising this week. As of the closing of December 1, WTI rose 0.67 to 81.22 dollars/barrel in January 2023, up 0.8%; In February 2023, Brent fell 0.09 to US $86.88 per barrel, down 0.1%. Crude oil is still expected to rise next week, supported by positive cost.

Downstream: The market of some downstream products declined mainly, but the commencement of some products was fair, and the demand for propylene was stable. Due to the rise of propylene price, the profit space of the polypropylene industry has shrunk, some enterprises have plans to reduce the burden, and other downstream derivatives have relatively stable demand.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the cost support is good, but the price rise inhibits downstream demand. Under the long short game, it is expected that the probability of Shandong propylene market declining next week will increase.

In November, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average domestic cobalt price was 334600 yuan/ton, down 2.36% from 342700 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared with the cobalt price of 348300 yuan/ton on October 30, it decreased by 3.93%. In November, the domestic cobalt price fell in N-type weakness.

The mobile phone market is not prosperous in the Christmas season

South Korean mobile phone giant Samsung cut its smartphone production in Vietnam for the second time this year, which is in sharp contrast to the traditional sales peak season before Christmas. During the period from October to November, Samsung plans to produce only 34 million smartphones. For the sales season before Christmas, there has been a sharp drop compared with the same period of previous years. Samsung also lowered its annual total smartphone production target from 334 million to 270 million to 280 million, and its shipment target from 300 million to 260 million. The annual shipment in 2022 is expected to be 13.3% lower than the mid year estimate. Samsung’s smartphone shipments decreased, mainly due to the compression of the European and American consumer markets. Mobile phone market consumption is weak, Christmas consumption season is not strong, and cobalt market demand is weak.

Ternary battery output and installed capacity

It can be seen from the chart of installed capacity and output of ternary batteries that in October, the output of ternary batteries in China was 24.2 GWh, accounting for 38.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 163.5% and a month on month decline of 0.2%; The loading of ternary batteries was 10.8GWh, accounting for 35.4% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 55.2% and a month on month decrease of 3.5%; In October, the installed capacity and output of ternary batteries both declined month on month, the proportion of ternary batteries shrank, and the demand for cobalt market weakened.

The import of cobalt raw materials decreased sharply month on month

It can be seen from the data map released by the General Administration of Customs that in October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 7600 tons of metal tons, a sharp decrease of 28% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 41%. From January to October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 84900 tons of metal, up year-on-year. The import of cobalt raw materials increased year on year, and the supply of cobalt was sufficient. In October, the import volume of cobalt raw materials fell sharply on a month on month basis, the supply of cobalt market decreased on a month on month basis, and the price of cobalt was driven up.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that in terms of demand, the consumption of mobile phone market is weak, the demand for ternary batteries is shrinking, and the demand for national storage information in the middle of the year is rising in the short term; In terms of supply, the import volume of cobalt raw materials rose, and the supply of cobalt market was sufficient. In the future, the supply of cobalt market is sufficient and the demand is weak. It is expected that the weak shocks in the future cobalt market will stabilize.

In November, the domestic ethanol market declined with little fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price at the beginning of the month was 6762 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The maximum amplitude in the month was 1.11%, and the price fell 4.63% year on year.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic ethanol market price range was reorganized, and short-term prices were hardly boosted, with a small downward trend as the main trend. The price of raw corn fluctuated, the starting load of downstream chemical acetate was stable, and the demand decreased. Stable load arrangement on the plant surface, and weak price operation on the ethanol market.

In the middle of this month, the domestic ethanol market continued to trade in a weak way. The supply side was relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating capacity of production plants was higher than that in October. However, the demand side was limited in the short term, which continued to be weak, and it was difficult to see significant benefits in the short term. The transaction price of the domestic ethanol market continued to operate in a weak way.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic ethanol market continued to be dominated by weak transactions, the market atmosphere in various regions continued to be cold, and some factories mainly drove up prices, but the actual transactions were average. In some regions, the unit operating load was high, the demand side remained low, and the domestic ethanol market continued to operate at a low level in the short term.

At the end of the month, there was a negative phenomenon in units in various regions, the supply side increased in a short term, and the domestic ethanol market was weak.

Strong cost support and stable demand operation. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

1、 Price data

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7874.75 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from 8119.75 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-8000 yuan/ton.

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7554.00 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from 7734.00 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

On November 27, the naphtha commodity index was 97.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.10% from the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and up 130.09% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and there was no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming. It was mainly purchased on demand, logistics was blocked in many places across the country, refineries reduced prices and shipped, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Upstream: International crude oil prices fell in shock. The inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the inventory of refined oil increased more than expected. It was also reported that the Group of Seven considered that the price limit of Russian seaborne oil was higher than the price ceiling of the current market level, and the supply tightening concerns eased. Western countries have not reached an agreement on the upper limit of Russian oil price; The oil price continues to be under pressure due to overlapping demand concerns.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene fell this week. On November 27, it was 7350 yuan/ton, and on November 21, it was 7440 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On November 27, the price was 7840 yuan/ton, and on November 21, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

The energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; There is no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming, and the procurement is mainly on demand. Logistics in many places across the country is blocked, refineries are active in shipping, and businesses are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and transactions are cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.