On September 18, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.10, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.99% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21) and up 75.59% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of hydrofluoric acid remains low, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 370 yuan/ton, the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the hydrofluoric acid market is not moving in the near future. As the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid is not available. Manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton.  Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but demand is poor, hydrofluoric acid market is weak.

Upstream fluorite market prices fell, up to 18 days fluorite price was 2877.78 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices fell to the hydrofluoric acid market has a negative impact, the hydrofluoric acid market prices are affected by the lower price of raw material fluorite at a low level.  Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand only declined but did not increase, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14500 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, on September 17, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7487.5 yuan/ton, which was 4.17% higher than the 16-day price of 7187.5 yuan/ton, and 33.85% lower than the same period last year.

On September 16, the PET commodity index was 54.04, up 0.84 points from yesterday, down 47.92% from the peak of 103.76 points in the cycle (2011-09-22), and up 13.20% from the low of 47.74 points on January 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Cause Analysis

Products: On September 14, two refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United States were attacked by drones, which affected Saudi oil production of 5.7 million barrels per day, and the disruption of Saudi supply caused oil prices to soar. Upstream products PTA and ethylene glycol market boosted, PET market prices have risen. At present, the polyester plant starts to maintain a high level, but the current market demand is limited, supply exceeds demand, driven by strong raw material end, the downstream follow-up is general, market turnover is flat, mostly wait-and-see, just need to purchase. As of September 17, the main quotation range of PET water bottle manufacturers is 7350-7550 yuan/ton, which is generally increased by 250 yuan/ton-300 yuan/ton.

Material aspect: PTA supply is sufficient at present, and there are plans to add new units, the overall start-up is high, inventory is still under pressure. Ethylene glycol plant start-up rate decreased, port inventory decreased, coupled with the Saudi attack led to the reduction of ethylene glycol production, polyethylene glycol prices.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 16, 2019. The top three commodities are LDPE (2.14%), LLDPE (1.82%) and PET (1.59%). There are three kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio: PC (-1.72%), EPS (-0.49%) and PA66 (-0.42%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.36%.

3. Future Market Forecast

PET analysts believe that, boosted by crude oil, cost-side support is good, the market of PET is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but cautious terminal demand, a strong downstream wait-and-see atmosphere, and the dynamics of crude oil market and other factors, the rise is not sustainable.

On September 16, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.10, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.99% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21) and up 75.59% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of hydrofluoric acid remains low, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 370 yuan/ton, the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the hydrofluoric acid market is not moving in the near future. As the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid is not available. Manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton.  Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but demand is poor, hydrofluoric acid market is weak.

Upstream fluorite market prices fell, up to 16 days fluorite price was 2888.89 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices fell to the hydrofluoric acid market has a negative impact, the hydrofluoric acid market prices are affected by the lower price of raw material fluorite at a low level.  Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has fallen to 14,000-14,500 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

According to today’s oil price report, the global economic weakness, slowing oil demand growth and growing shale oil production in the United States have made oil oversupply the focus of media and analysts this year. However, in a few years, the biggest concern in the oil market is likely to be a shortage of oil supply, which may push up oil prices.

Continued oversupply has delayed the implementation of the OPEC cut-off agreement until next year, replacing concerns about the looming global oil supply crisis with insufficient long-term investment in replenishing conventional oil reserves. Long-term oversupply and weak oil demand have depressed oil prices for most of this year. However, lower oil prices are also beginning to affect the pace of oil production in the United States, the world’s largest supplier of shale oil.

Rob Pinkerton, author of Seeking Alpha, believes that U.S. oil production will increase in the next few years, but may peak in the early 1920s. By 2024, he said, most of the recoverable reserves will be extracted from U.S. shale reservoirs, leaving a gap in the global oil supply that only newly discovered conventional offshore resources can fill to some extent.

International organizations also set the peak of U.S. shale oil production in the 1920s, although most people predict it will be in the late 2020s.  Specialized oil organizations, analysts and major state-owned oil companies in OPEC member countries have warned for years that the oil supply gap may widen in just a few years due to a reduction in investment following the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014.

The slowdown in U.S. shale oil production further illustrates that the global supply crunch will come in five years or less, although OPEC and its allies are currently trying to eliminate the global oversupply caused by worries about demand growth.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently lowered its demand growth forecast for 2019 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.1 million barrels a day. The agency had previously found that demand growth from January to May was only 520,000 barrels a day, the lowest since 2008.

But the IEA also predicts that US production of dense oil will continue to rise by 2025, and says, “Since then, according to our current estimates of exploitable resources, production will begin to decline gradually.”

By the mid-1920s, there will be signs of energy exhaustion in many areas of the United States with higher productivity. “This means that the oil production of the rig will be lower in 2025 than it is now, so more wells need to be completed to maintain or increase production,” the IEA said.

In the latest World Oil Outlook, OPEC expects non-OPEC oil supplies to peak at the end of the 1920s, as tight oil supplies in the United States are expected to peak.

On the other hand, global oil consumption will continue to grow, at least in the next 10 years, due to the demand of petrochemical, truck transport and aviation industries. In its World Energy Outlook released in November last year, the IEA said that the oil industry would need to double the number of approved conventional oil projects to meet the expected growth.

“Without such a rebound in investment, US shale production, already expanding at a record rate, will have to increase by more than 10 million barrels per day from today to 2025 — the equivalent of adding Russia’s global supply for seven years, which will be unprecedented,” the IEA said.

As the growth rate of shale oil production in the United States slows down, traditional oil investment is still much lower than five years ago, and the supply gap may emerge as early as the early 1920s.

On September 11, the rare earth index was 380 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.00% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 40.22% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 413,500 yuan/ton, 2325,000 yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides increased by 3000 yuan/ton to 330,500 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide price was 193,000 yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide price was 385,000 yuan/ton, and neodymium oxide price was increased by 3000 yuan/ton to 335,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 413,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.93 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the prices of some products in the rare earth field have been rising continuously. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The prices of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides have maintained a high level. Recent inquiries for neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide have increased in the field, and the prices of light rare earth oxides have maintained a rising trend. At that time, light rare earth merchants in the field were reluctant to sell and optimistic about the future market. Recent on-site transactions are general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future. It is expected that some prices of rare earth market will continue to rise slightly.