According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on December 1st was 6905 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 5th was 6845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9000 yuan/ton on December 1st and 8500 yuan/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 1.11%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7387 yuan/ton on December 1st and 7312 yuan/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 1.02%.
Recently, polyethylene remains weak and difficult to change. Polyethylene supply continues to increase, inventory remains high, and there are not many planned maintenance units in December. The demand performance is flat, with many companies purchasing on demand and low enthusiasm for receiving goods. They adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude, and the overall downstream operating rate has declined. The demand for greenhouse film is gradually decreasing, the improvement in demand for plastic film is limited, and the packaging film industry is in the off-season. There is currently no positive news to stimulate, the fundamentals are weak, and market confidence is insufficient. It is expected that polyethylene will remain weak and difficult to change.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fell from a high level this week (12.1-5), and prices fluctuated downward. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4400 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.23% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC did not continue its previous upward trend, and prices continued to decline during the week. During the week, most manufacturers provided stable quotes, with some mainly lowering their prices by within a hundred yuan. The fundamental performance of supply and demand is weak, with obvious supply pressure. Although the operating rate of manufacturers has not increased, social inventory is still in the process of rising. In terms of demand, external demand is weak, and exports are affected by the external environment, resulting in increased export pressure. The domestic market maintains a stable demand for essential goods. Overall, demand is weak. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4450-4480 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market rebounded this week, with a growth rate of 3.8% according to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society. The rise in calcium carbide prices has driven downstream PVC prices to rebound at the beginning of the week, but from mid week to the weekend, the market was affected by supply and demand pressures, and prices did not continue to rise.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is expected to continue to perform poorly in the short term. Looking at next week, the pressure on the supply side may ease, and equipment such as Jinlu and Yibin Tianyuan have maintenance plans. However, considering the high social inventory, there will not be much change in the supply in the near future. From the demand side, the enthusiasm for external procurement is not high, the demand performance is average, and the market demand is mainly driven by urgent needs. Overall, PVC prices may stop falling next week and turn into volatility, and a real rebound market may not occur.

This week, the sulfur market is in a pattern of “external strength and internal stability, easy to rise but difficult to fall”, with mixed long and short factors in the market, but the support force is significantly stronger.
The price level shows structural differentiation. On December 4th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 3924.33 yuan/ton, a slight correction of only 0.75% compared to yesterday’s (3897.33 yuan/ton), indicating a slight fluctuation in short-term market sentiment.
Spot market performance:
The prices of the main refineries remain stable, and the bidding base price of Dalian refineries has even been slightly raised. Especially in the Shandong region, the price of liquid sulfur has significantly increased by 20-80 yuan/ton, which clearly indicates that the regional spot supply is not loose, and even tight. The transaction price of around 4100 yuan/ton along the Yangtze River has also remained stable at a high level.
The core contradiction of the market lies in “strong expectations” and “weak reality”
On the one hand, the strength of the international market is currently the most core driving factor. The inquiry price of CFR 530-535 USD/ton in India and Indonesia has formed a huge price difference with the existing import price of CFR 490-492 USD/ton in China. This indicates that the cost of importing sulfur into China will face enormous upward pressure in the future, creating a solid “cost floor” for domestic market prices.
On the other hand, the domestic spot market is showing a situation of “light trading volume”. Sellers are generally reluctant to sell and have a weak willingness to ship due to the expectation of bullish external market and limited arrival at the port; However, the buyer’s acceptance of the current high price is limited, making it difficult to reach a transaction through inquiries, resulting in a decrease in market trading activity.
Supply side:
The number of arrivals is limited, and although the total inventory of ports nationwide has slightly increased, the inventory of key Yangtze River consumer ports continues to decline, indicating that the spot goods in the core region are slowly being consumed.
Demand side:
Despite lacking explosive power, it is still slowly exerting force, providing a stable foundation for essential needs. This pattern of “limited supply while demand still exists” makes the market not have the conditions for a sharp decline.
Conclusions and Prospects
In summary, the current light trading in the market is a brief game between buyers and sellers at high prices, rather than a signal of a weakening trend. Against the backdrop of tight international sulfur supply and demand and skyrocketing prices, the cost support in the domestic market is extremely strong. Combined with the insufficient domestic spot resources and sellers’ reluctance to sell, it is reasonable to judge that the sulfur market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.
In the short term, the sulfur market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, waiting for new drivers to break the deadlock. Once international high priced resources are traded and gradually transmitted domestically, or if downstream domestic demand is concentrated and released at some point, prices are likely to regain upward momentum. It is necessary to closely monitor the bidding and transaction results of Dalian Refinery, the sustainability of the price increase of liquid sulfur in Shandong, and the actual transaction prices of international buying, all of which will become key indicators affecting the next direction of the market.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average market price of light soda ash on November 28th was 1224 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 1224 yuan/ton on November 21st. The price trend of soda ash remained stable throughout the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the soda ash market has been running steadily, with downstream production decreasing and demand for soda ash decreasing. Market transactions urgently need to follow up, and some supply side enterprises have reduced or maintained their equipment. The soda ash production rate has declined, which has supported the market mentality. The basic pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash has not improved, and the mentality of operators is cautious. The soda ash price market is running steadily.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass market fell first and then rose this week. As of November 28th, the average market price was 13.68 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.48% compared to the price of 13.48 yuan/ton on November 21st. This week, the operating rate of the glass market has slightly decreased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, enterprise shipments have been good, glass social inventory has decreased, and glass prices have risen narrowly.
Future forecast: Currently, the domestic soda ash spot market is mainly stabilizing, and the production capacity of supply side equipment is recovering in the later stage. The expected operating rate is rising, and the downstream market has stopped falling and rebounded. The purchase of soda ash may increase. It is expected that the soda ash market will remain stagnant and operate steadily, and specific attention will be paid to the market shipment situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has fluctuated and risen this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6590 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6656 yuan/ton, with a 1% increase during the week.
News: On November 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The US futures market is closed for Thanksgiving. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $62.87 per barrel, an increase of $0.33 or 0.5%.
Cost aspect: The pure benzene market is fluctuating at a low level. Overall supply remains loose; Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with some loss making varieties reducing production to maintain prices, and overall demand support is limited. Recently, the pure benzene market has rebounded multiple times, but due to demand constraints, the magnitude is limited. Under weak fundamentals, the pure benzene market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.
Supply and demand side: Recently, some styrene plants have been unplanned to shut down, and the supply side of styrene has strengthened. In addition, downstream profits have been repaired, and production has rebounded. The demand side is steadily following suit. The fundamentals of styrene have improved and prices have slightly increased.
Styrene external market: On November 27th, the closing prices of the styrene market in Asia remained stable, with closing prices of $800-810/ton FOB Korea and $810-820/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The current supply and demand side of the styrene market has slightly improved, but the cost side support is weak. After the short-term supply and demand side benefits are exhausted, it is expected that the resistance to the short-term styrene market will continue to increase, and the range oscillation operation will be the main trend.