In early May, the domestic ABS market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with some grades experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of May 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter May, the domestic ABS industry still maintains a relatively concentrated pattern of maintenance, and overall it continues to decline. The overall operating level of the industry has dropped to around 57%, a further decrease of 3% from the end of last month. The current weekly average production is less than 130000 tons, and the position of finished product inventory has been adjusted back to within 200000 tons. The pre holiday shipment situation of the aggregation plant is good, and there is still an expectation of contraction in production changes in the short term. Overall, the ABS supply side’s support for spot prices in early May is still acceptable.
Cost factor: Since May, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, with high-level officials from both sides releasing positive signals. The market predicts that the Middle East conflict is likely to ease, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume, gradually narrowing the supply gap. After the holiday, the international crude oil market experienced a severe sell-off, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both falling sharply, hitting a two-week low. Affected by it, the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, are all compressed.. Domestic consumption continues to decrease, with insufficient spot buying and sluggish transactions. However, the shortage of overseas supply of acrylonitrile continues, with high external prices and support for exports. In addition, the strong trend of raw material propylene prices has led to a slight increase in acrylonitrile prices driven by costs.
In early May, the domestic butadiene market experienced a weak downward trend, with an overall trading atmosphere that was quiet. The market showed a pattern of weakened cost support, relatively abundant supply, and sluggish terminal demand. There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with supplier quotes continuing to loosen and downstream purchases cautiously lowering prices. Market transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. Due to the weak transaction volume of the bidding goods, the overall downward pressure on the market is obvious, and the short-term market is in a weak adjustment channel.
The styrene market continues to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, pure benzene has fluctuated and fallen recently. Although there are not many imported sources and the domestic supply and demand pattern of pure benzene tends to be strong, it is difficult to offset the guidance brought by the heavy decline in crude oil. However, the consumption of styrene lacks effective driving force, and the market lacks upward momentum. However, there have been frequent inspections and load reductions on the styrene supply side before and after the holiday, which is expected to limit the decline of the styrene market in the future.
In terms of demand: As we enter May, there has been limited change in the operating conditions of downstream ABS enterprises, with average consumption in the main terminal electrical housing industry and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up, not buying down. At the same time, there is pre holiday inventory that needs to be digested, and the operation of replenishing inventory and building warehouses has significantly decreased. However, there is a tendency for merchants to lower their profit margins, while midstream traders snatch up after the decline in crude oil prices. The buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, which in turn creates a drag on the price center within the range. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In early May, the domestic ABS market rose and then turned downwards. The production load of the aggregation plant continues to slightly decrease, and the on-site supply remains sufficient. Cost three materials are weakly organized. The current ABS market is shrouded in a bearish shadow of cost decline and weak demand. At present, the focus of spot prices is loose, and on-site trading is relatively quiet.

ccording to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell weakly, with an average price of 19866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 19033 yuan/ton on May 9th, a decrease of 1.19% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 22.14%. During the week, the supply of goods from major factories remained tight, but due to the impact of the May Day holiday, downstream demand was light and transactions were low. In addition, the raw material pure benzene market has fallen, and the polymer MDI market has been under pressure and lowered due to the dual bearish trend.
Supply side: On April 20th, some MDI units of BASF Shanghai were shut down for maintenance, with a duration of about 1-2 weeks. The MDI units with production capacities of 130000 tons/year and 70000 tons/year in Tosa, Japan, are scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance at the end of April, with an expected duration of about 40 days.
Cost aspect: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices are under pressure, and pure benzene has been dragged down by oil prices, resulting in a decrease in prices. In the short term, although there has been negative feedback in some downstream areas, the supply and demand pattern of pure benzene is still tight, port inventories continue to decline, and prices still have support.
Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with fewer inquiries and pressure from intermediaries on their shipments, resulting in price reductions.
Future forecast: The current trend of the aggregated MDI market is weak, and the market is gradually recovering after the holiday, especially with strong demand in overseas markets. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate after a decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the holiday, the domestic BDO price fell from 8504 yuan/ton to 8470 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.05%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.55%. The device experiences narrow fluctuations, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of goods. The overall downstream demand has increased, and the supply and demand pressure is controllable. However, due to insufficient follow-up on terminal demand and poor transmission of cost pressure, some downstream industries have experienced fluctuations and declines. They have mostly digested raw material inventory or followed up on essential contracts, resulting in light spot purchases and bargaining.
On the supply side, the supply of BDO goods has slightly decreased, and the positive support from the supply side still exists. The positive impact of BDO supply has weakened.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, due to the low price of calcium carbide in the early stage, the number of shutdown devices continues to increase, and the market supply weakens, resulting in a bottoming out rebound in calcium carbide prices. After the holiday, with the recovery of transportation capacity, production enterprises’ shipments improved, downstream waiting for unloading consumption was significant, and procurement was active. In terms of methanol, many facilities have entered a maintenance and shutdown cycle, coupled with the continuous low inventory of manufacturers, resulting in a tight market supply pattern. At the same time, the concentrated release of downstream post holiday replenishment demand has driven up prices in mainland China. The market for raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol is improving, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT have seen an increase in production, while PBAT and PU slurry loads have declined. Other downstream loads have remained relatively stable, and downstream demand has increased significantly. There is a certain supply gap in the BDO industry. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
In the future, the strong operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol will increase the cost pressure of BDO; Partial device restarts, resulting in increased supply; The production of PTMEG and PBT has increased, leading to an increase in demand. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation.

On April 30, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 14700 yuan/ton. On April 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 14000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 700 yuan/ton, or 5%.
1、 Price market description
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in April, the price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong Province, China, rose in a stepped manner, from 14000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 5% in a single month. There was no pullback or decline throughout the month, indicating a strong market trend.
The first stage (4.1-4.4) was the first round of price increases in the market, with prices jumping from 14000 yuan/ton to 14300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. This was mainly influenced by the consensus of industry conferences to raise prices, with top manufacturers in Shandong closing down and raising prices, and spot auction prices rising first.
In the second stage (4.7-4.22), the market situation platform sorted and combined with a second price increase, and the price remained stable at 14500 yuan/ton for about two weeks. This is the stage when the market digests the previous price increase and supply-demand game. Downstream demand gradually replenishes inventory, supporting prices to maintain high levels.
In the third stage (4.25-4:30), the market situation surged towards the end of the month, reaching a peak of 14700 yuan/ton. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream pre holiday stocking demand is concentrated and released, coupled with the unchanged tight supply pattern in the industry, prices have once again risen to 14700 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: Industry self-discipline to reduce production+supply contraction
The domestic organic silicon industry will implement a production restriction strategy from the end of 2025. By 2026, the industry’s operating rate will remain at around 6 to 7 floors, and some enterprises will only have a load of 50% -60%. Coupled with some equipment maintenance, effective supply will continue to shrink, and large factories have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand side: resonance between essential needs and pre holiday stocking
The demand for downstream photovoltaic adhesives, new energy vehicles, electronics and other fields is stable, and the export market is performing well; At the end of April, as the holiday approached and downstream inventory was depleted, the demand for pre holiday replenishment was released in stages, further supporting price increases.
Cost side: Dual support of raw materials and policies
The upstream metal silicon market raw materials are operating steadily, and the bottom support of organic silicon DMC costs is clear.
3、 Future forecast
Forecast prospects based on supply and demand and cost aspects
From the supply side, the current pattern of production reduction and equipment maintenance in the industry will continue in the short term, and the willingness of large factories to raise prices is still strong. The situation of tight spot circulation will continue. On the cost side, the raw material market has shown stable performance, and macro policy support still exists, giving the market a certain bottoming out in terms of costs. In the short term, the overall price of organic silicon DMC will continue to operate at a high and strong level. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the supply changes after the maintenance of upstream devices, the sustainability of downstream demand, and the impact of external geopolitical situations on raw material prices.

As of April 30, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan or 10.51% from April 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In April, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of n-butanol quickly rose, reaching a high point of 8933 yuan/ton for the month. However, due to insufficient support, the high price was short-lived, and the center of gravity of n-butanol gradually declined, falling to a low point at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The trend of n-butanol prices rising and falling in April is essentially a direct reflection of the rapid shift from tight balance to loose supply and demand pattern. The following is a phased breakdown of the impact of supply and demand:
Early April (1-8): Tight supply+rigid demand support, price surge
Supply side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side of n-butanol showed a phase of contraction, with low market inventory, multiple domestic units undergoing maintenance or operating at low loads, low industry operating rates, and limited market spot circulation. Due to the support of export orders from some mainstream factories, the domestic sales source has further decreased, and the factory inventory is at a low level, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices.
On the demand side: the market is expected to stock up during peak seasons, downstream stocks will be replenished at low prices, and the market will increase volume in response to temporary demand. Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and acrylic esters are expected to experience the “Silver Four” peak season, coupled with low prices at the beginning of the month. Downstream enterprises are concentrated in buying inventory at low prices, resulting in active market inquiries and transactions.
Mid to late April (9-30): The supply-demand contradiction becomes apparent
Supply side: The n-butanol maintenance unit has resumed production, and the overall supply pressure in the market has rebounded. The devices that underwent early maintenance have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rapidly rebounded. The market supply of goods has increased, and the tight supply pattern in the early stage has begun to ease. Some new devices are expected to be put into operation, and the market is increasingly concerned about the increase in supply in the later stage.
Demand side: Short term demand ends, downstream procurement pace slows down. After a brief increase in downstream demand for “gold, silver, and four” materials, the demand for raw materials in industries such as plasticizers and coatings slowed down, and large-scale inventory replenishment behavior decreased. In addition, with price increases, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials began to emerge.
Future forecast
Supply and demand direction analysis
In April, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The trend of the market is essentially a manifestation of the supply recovery speed far exceeding the demand recovery speed. Downstream demand lacks incremental growth overall, and it is difficult for essential procurement to digest new supply. The market has entered a downward channel of “strong supply and weak demand”.
Entering May, it is expected that the market will experience a range adjustment, and whether the demand side can steadily release it still needs to be monitored.