Market Overview: Prices continue to decline (12.10-12.24)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3% in mid December. Under the combined effects of increasing supply pressure, weakened cost support, and flat demand, the market has continued its downward trend since December.
Supply side: Device restart, supply pressure becomes core negative
The significant increase in supply is the fundamental reason for the current market turn. Since December, devices that were previously shut down or undergoing maintenance have been restarted and produced at full capacity. Faced with an increase in supply, some production enterprises have accumulated inventory. In order to promote sales and reduce inventory pressure, they have adopted price reduction strategies, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market and the downward inertia of prices.
Demand side: Strong demand is dominant, with low willingness to buy
Downstream demand has failed to provide effective support to the market. The main downstream industries such as polycarbonate and pharmaceutical solid light mostly maintain production through essential procurement, and generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, cautious in entering the market for procurement. When the price is in a downward channel, the downstream mentality of “buying up and not buying down” is obvious, only maintaining small orders and replenishing on demand, unable to digest the rapidly increasing supply, resulting in difficulty in increasing market transactions.
Cost side: Raw material prices decline, support level shifts downwards
As of December 24th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane, the main raw material, was 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88% within this ten day period. The synchronous decline in raw material costs has significantly weakened the cost support for dimethyl carbonate. In the context of the already prominent supply-demand contradiction, the downward shift of the cost center has opened up greater downward space for product prices, weakening the ability of production enterprises to raise prices.
Outlook for the future: The supply-demand game continues, and the market may continue to experience weak fluctuations
In mid December, the dimethyl carbonate market continued its clear downward trend under the triple pressure of supply recovery, flat demand, and cost collapse. Among them, the rapid recovery of the supply side is the most core contradiction that has led to the current market turn and sustained downturn. Looking ahead to the future, whether the market can stop falling and stabilize depends on whether the situation of oversupply can be alleviated through proactive production cuts by enterprises. Until clear signals of supply contraction appear, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

At the end of December, the domestic PS market was mainly weak and consolidated. Most spot prices of certain brands have limited fluctuations. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 7450 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase or decrease of -1.32%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the operating rate of the domestic polystyrene industry has slightly rebounded. Some units of enterprises such as Guangxi Petrochemical and Lianyungang Petrochemical are gradually returning, and the overall industry load has been narrowly increased to 60%. The supply of genuine materials is abundant, with only a few models experiencing tight supply. The current inventory position is relatively controllable, and there are still expectations of relaxed market supply. Overall, the supply side’s support for PS is average.
Cost factor: Recently, the styrene market has fallen more than it has risen. The raw material pure benzene was concentrated at the port in the first half of the month. Current port inventory accumulation. And crude oil support weakened, while double bearish dragged pure benzene to maintain weak operation. The styrene seller camp tends to operate in a decentralized manner. Downstream 3S production has been reduced, suppressing demand. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
In terms of demand, the profitability of terminal enterprises continues to be sluggish, and the downstream electrical shell industry of PS has not seen any improvement in production scheduling, with a generally low year-on-year trend. In addition, there is no expected increase in terminal load in the future. The downstream demand for PS is high and difficult to meet, with a small number of buyers following up. The overall stocking logic maintains the need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply slows down. Merchants’ inventory positions are deadlocked, the market maintains a cautious atmosphere, and trading momentum is average. Overall, the demand side provides average support for the PS market.
Future forecast
At the end of December, the domestic PS market fluctuated weakly. The production load of the aggregation plant is stable with small increases, and the balance of consumer demand is mainly broad. Business analysts believe that the upstream styrene target range has turned high and fallen, while the demand side of PS lacks positive guidance in the short term, and it is expected that the market will continue to consolidate.

Recently (12.1-12.22), the domestic EVA market has been operating weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% from 10233 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The demand for downstream photovoltaics and foam production is relatively weak; The market expectation for the production of new EVA devices in China is bearish; The price of raw material vinyl acetate has significantly increased, which has to some extent slowed down the downward trend of the EVA market. The lack of favorable market supply and demand has supported the weak consolidation of the EVA market.
Recently (12.1-12.22), EVA production has started at around 8.5%, and the supply pressure in the EVA market still exists. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene slightly decreased, while the price of vinyl acetate significantly increased, and the cost faced EVA support strengthened. As of December 22, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from 6200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 22, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% from 5500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (12.1-12.22), there has been a lack of significant positive support for the demand in the EVA market, with weak overall new orders in downstream photovoltaic and foam industries, and low price sources being the main source of inquiries and transactions; In addition, the recent Lianhong integration project has made key progress: the 1.3 million tons/year methanol to olefin (MTO) plant and the 200000 tons/year ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) plant have been successfully put into operation with a single feeding. The introduction of new production capacity creates negative expectations for the market. The EVA market is running weakly.
In the future forecast, overall EVA cost support is strong, but downstream demand in the photovoltaic and foam industries is weak. In addition, with new EVA devices put into operation, the overall fundamentals of EVA are weak. It is expected that the weak consolidation of EVA spot market will be the main trend in the later period.

On Friday, December 19th, PET polyester bottle flakes rebounded strongly, opening high and moving high. At the end of the week, they significantly strengthened due to cost push, with an average sales price of 5772 yuan/ton for PET The main futures were linked at 5730 yuan/ton (+1.76%).
On the cost side: Crude oil and PX are strong, PTA is rising, and factory quotes are increasing by 50-80 yuan/ton, ensuring smooth cost transmission.
Supply side: Mainstream devices are stable, new devices are being tested, there is ample stock available, and inventory pressure remains.
On the demand side: downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and cautious trading.
Business Society believes that in the short term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, with a range of 5700-5780 yuan/ton; Cost support is still in place, but loose supply and off-season demand will constrain growth. Pay attention to fluctuations in crude oil, PTA, and downstream procurement pace.

Recently, the propylene glycol market in Shandong region has entered a new stage of the game of “strong support weakening and weak demand highlighting”. The market price center of gravity has loosened, and market sentiment has shifted from cautious observation to bearish sentiment. Production enterprises have actively adjusted prices, and the market center of gravity has shifted downwards.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 18th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from early December and at a historical low. The trading atmosphere was light, and there was room for negotiation in actual orders.
Supply side: shifting from “structural tightness” to “expected looseness”
The market supply pattern is undergoing a dynamic transformation. At the end of November, several parking facilities in Shandong, including Lihua Yi and Tongling, were restarted one after another, bringing actual supply increases. Coupled with the expected release of new production capacity in Fujian and other regions, the market mentality was continuously suppressed, resulting in a weakening of the willingness of holders to raise prices.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand and weak support
Downstream industries are facing dual pressures of capital recovery and shrinking orders at the end of the year, unable to provide upward momentum for the propylene glycol market.
Unsaturated resin (UPR): As the largest consumer sector of propylene glycol (accounting for over 50%), its industry performance can be described as sluggish. In the first half of December, the capacity utilization rate of the unsaturated resin industry was only 35%, which was at a low level. Insufficient orders in the fields of terminal construction, composite materials, etc. have resulted in resin factories only maintaining a minimum level of essential procurement of raw material propylene glycol, making it difficult to form effective driving forces.
Polyether polyols: Another major downstream sector has also shown lackluster performance, with a capacity utilization rate of about 58% and poor follow-up on new orders. The consumption of propylene glycol is stable but lacks growth points.
On the cost side of raw materials: the support of epoxy propane (PO) is wavering
The price trend of raw material propylene oxide (PO) is the key factor affecting the cost of propylene glycol. In the first half of December, the PO market ended its previous period of sustained strength. Although the shutdown of facilities in Shandong once provided emotional support, the sluggish downstream demand for polyether hindered the rise of PO prices, leading to a stalemate or even weak consolidation. This has substantially loosened the production cost support for propylene glycol, providing space for manufacturers to lower their quotes, and shifting the cost driven logic from “strong support” to “neutral bearish”.
Market outlook: weak consolidation, bottoming out and oscillation
In the second half of December, market dominance will be fully in the hands of the demand side. Cost pressure fluctuates, making it difficult to form an effective boost. Under the expectation of loose supply, the bearish sentiment in the market has intensified. In the absence of positive stimuli, the market is likely to maintain a low level of operation, and it is expected that the market will gradually explore new price bottoms through a combination of bearish and volatile trends. The stabilization and rebound of the market may need to wait until January 2026 to observe the downstream stocking pace and supply side equipment situation before the Spring Festival.