According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has recently opened an upward channel. As of April 21, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate is 170000 yuan/ton, up 13.33% month on month and 143% year-on-year. This round of price increases is not driven by a single factor, but by the contraction expectations caused by multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the positive support formed by the continuous recovery of the demand side. The resonance between the two is an inevitable result, and the industry’s supply and demand pattern is gradually evolving towards a tighter direction, providing a solid foundation for price increases.
Supply side: Multiple potential risks overlap, continuously strengthening market expectations of supply contraction
Zimbabwe: The export ban that lasted for nearly two months has led to a delay in supply. Although several domestic companies have obtained 6-month export quota approvals issued by the country since mid April, the resumption of exports is not achieved overnight. Companies still need to complete a series of export procedures, and the backlog of lithium concentrate cannot be shipped at once. The market expects that the large-scale arrival of lithium concentrate at the port will be delayed until after July. In this context, market concerns about the tight supply of lithium mines in May and June continue to rise, and the act of reserving lithium mines in advance further exacerbates the short-term circulation tension, leading to a decrease in port lithium concentrate inventory and lower processing fees for spodumene lithium extraction.
Australia: Recently, one of the only two refineries in Victoria, Australia, caught fire. Although it did not directly affect diesel production, concerns about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia continue to escalate in the context of unstable global energy supply chains. Diesel, as a key energy source in lithium mining and transportation, its supply shortage may directly affect local lithium mining production and operation. Although there is currently no clear news of lithium mining project adjustment and operation, this potential supply contraction expectation has continued to strengthen. The subsequent passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of replenishing Australian diesel inventories will become key variables affecting overseas lithium mining supply.
Domestically, the structural contraction of lithium ore supply has further amplified the tense situation on the supply side. As the core production area of lithium mica ore in China, Yichun, Jiangxi Province, has a profound impact on domestic supply due to changes in production capacity. At present, several lithium mica mines in Yichun area are in a state of shutdown, and four more mines are expected to enter the stage of shutdown and license renewal in May. In the second half of the year, there may be seven more mines facing shutdown, and the follow-up production cycle after the shutdown will last for more than a year. This structural contraction is due to the increase in environmental compliance requirements and the pressure of cost inversion. With lithium being identified as a strategic independent mineral, local mines need to complete the certification approval for the main mineral. Coupled with the significant increase in tailings processing costs, the survival pressure on small and medium-sized mines has intensified, further tightening the domestic supply of lithium mines and becoming an important factor supporting the price of lithium carbonate.
Demand side: Continuous recovery

The pattern of “dual wheel drive” between power batteries and energy storage batteries is becoming increasingly clear, and demand resilience continues to be highlighted. In the field of power batteries, despite a year-on-year decline in domestic sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter, the significant increase in single vehicle charge has driven the production of power cells to maintain high-speed growth. The year-on-year increase in power cell production in the first quarter was nearly 40%, reflecting the inherent resilience of power battery demand. At the same time, the energy storage industry has experienced explosive growth, with the production of energy storage cells increasing by over 90% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the winning capacity scale increasing by 168% year-on-year. The proportion of energy storage cell production continues to increase, becoming an important increment in lithium demand growth. On this basis, institutions are optimistic about the future battery production schedule, with a month on month growth trend in April and May. The continued upward revision of demand expectations further strengthens the upward momentum of lithium carbonate prices.
Overall, the current upward trend in lithium carbonate prices is the result of the resonance between the contraction expectations caused by multiple disturbances on the supply side and the sustained recovery on the demand side. In the short term, the uncertainty on the supply side will continue, and the trends of domestic mines in Jiangxi, the export progress of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe overseas, and the energy supply situation in Australia will continue to affect price trends; On the demand side, it is expected to remain strong, and the dual demand support of power batteries and energy storage batteries will further strengthen the price bottom support. However, it should be noted that the current fluctuation range of lithium carbonate prices has converged, and the future price trend still needs to focus on the progress of mining resumption in Jiangxi, the degree of demand fulfillment, as well as the potential impact of global macro environment and supply chain changes. Overall, the tight supply-demand balance pattern in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue in the second quarter, and prices are likely to remain high.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 20th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 8466.67 yuan/ton, which stabilized after an increase of 5.39% compared to the price of 8033.33 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the equipment production of isobutyraldehyde enterprises slightly decreased, with a production rate of about 86%. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fluctuated and rose, leading to an increase in demand for isobutyraldehyde. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, supported by cost demand. After the price of isobutyraldehyde increased in April, it stabilized.
The production of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers has slightly decreased
The operating rate of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers decreased from 90% in March to around 86% in April. The production of isobutyraldehyde is sufficient, and the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde still exists.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 20th, the price of propylene was 9057.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.11% compared to the price of 8784.33 yuan/ton on April 1st. The propylene plant has started operating steadily, with a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, a decrease in crude oil prices, and a lack of momentum in propylene price increases. Propylene prices first rose and then fell, and the acceptance of high prices for propylene has increased. Cost support, the support of rising costs of isobutyraldehyde still exists.
Increased demand for isobutyraldehyde
The price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated and rose in April; The price of neopentyl glycol has risen, and the demand for isobutyraldehyde has increased. The support for the rise in isobutyraldehyde prices has increased.
Market Overview and Forecast
The analyst of the isobutyraldehyde industry at Shengyi Society believes that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the decline in crude oil prices, the decrease in costs, and the weakening of support for the rise in propylene prices; In terms of supply and demand, the production of isobutyraldehyde has decreased, and the supply of isobutyraldehyde has decreased; In terms of demand, the price of neopentyl glycol has risen, and the demand for isobutyraldehyde has increased, with greater support for the rise in isobutyraldehyde. In the future, cost increases are weak, coupled with reduced supply and increased demand for isobutyraldehyde. The support for isobutyraldehyde’s rise still exists, and it is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will stabilize after rising in the future.

As of Friday, April 17, 2026, the polyester bottle chip market has shown a fluctuating upward trend of “low at the beginning of the week, rebound in the middle of the week, and firm over the weekend” this week (April 13 April 17). The core is dominated by strong cost support and tight spot prices, but downstream demand is weak and transactions are limited.
1、 This week’s price data (according to data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream transaction price for East China water bottle grade)
At the beginning of the week (4.13-4.14): 8450-8550 yuan/ton Due to a slight drop in oil prices and downstream wait-and-see effects, the market was weakly consolidating.
Mid week (4.15-4.16): PTA maintenance at a price of 8550-8700 yuan/ton is beneficial for fermentation, leading to increased costs and rising prices from manufacturers.
On the weekend (4.17), the spot supply was tight at 8600-8750 yuan/ton, but the quotation remained firm, with a weekly average price of about 8580 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Driving Factors
1. Cost side: Leading the rise (strong support)
Crude oil: The situation in the Middle East is volatile, with Brent fluctuating sharply at high levels of $110-120 per barrel, and the overall center of gravity is relatively high.
PTA: Large factories are conducting centralized maintenance, with strong expectations of tight supply and rising prices, directly increasing the production cost of bottle chips.
2. Supply side: Shortage of spot goods (secondary support)
The industry’s operating rate is about 72.95%, with some devices still undergoing maintenance and limited market supply.
The manufacturer’s inventory is low (about 10.28 days), and there is a strong willingness to sell and raise prices.
3. Demand side: Weakness and fatigue (mainly suppressed)
Downstream beverages, sheets, and other products have low acceptance of high prices, and their purchases are mostly small orders for essential needs and on-demand purchases.
Although it is the peak season, the cost increase is too large, downstream resistance, and overall transaction volume is light.
3、 Outlook for next week (from April 20th)
Price range: expected to fluctuate at a high level between 8500-9300 yuan/ton.
• Main logic:
Good news: PTA maintenance continues, cost support remains strong, and the tight spot market pattern is difficult to change.
Negative: Downstream continues to resist high prices, making it difficult to increase demand for essential goods.
Conclusion: Easy to rise but difficult to fall, with strong fluctuations, the weekly average price may slightly rise to 8680 yuan/ton.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, in early April, the hydrogen peroxide market showed an oscillating upward trend, with demand improving and the hydrogen peroxide market steadily heating up. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 796 yuan/ton. On April 16th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 810 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67%.
Reasons affecting the rise of hydrogen peroxide market
Positive factors
Demand side: Concentrated release of downstream demand. Main downstream epoxy propane enterprises maintain continuous procurement; At the same time, the workload of the caprolactam industry has increased, and downstream industries related to new energy such as papermaking and iron phosphate have also conducted centralized procurement, jointly driving up market trading heat.
Inventory and supply situation: The market supply side is showing a tight pattern. The latest data shows that under the digestion of strong demand, the inventory of enterprises in the main production areas is at a low level. Although some devices have maintenance plans, there are also new devices facing production, resulting in narrow fluctuations in overall supply.
Negative factors
Supply side: Pressure from weak local market demand or oversupply, medium – to long-term capacity expansion expectations: Liuhua Group announced an investment of approximately 290 million yuan to construct new projects, expected to significantly increase its 27.5% hydrogen peroxide production capacity from 160000 tons/year to over 360000 tons/year. Although new production capacity has not yet been implemented, the market has begun to digest the expectation of a significant increase in future supply, creating medium to long-term downward pressure on spot prices.
News: Some hydrogen peroxide producers are at risk, which may undermine market confidence in the industry as a whole and reflect the dilemma of sluggish industry demand in 2025.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that the key indicator is that in early March, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and hydrogen peroxide showed an upward trend. On April 12th, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and the spot market for hydrogen peroxide continued to fluctuate and rise in early April. The probability of a price increase for hydrogen peroxide in the latter half of the year is relatively high.
Auxiliary indicators: In early April, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a 30 day high, a 20 day high, and a 30 day rise, indicating that in the long run, the upward space of the hydrogen peroxide market is limited.
In summary, in late April, the fundamentals of domestic hydrogen peroxide remained mixed with long and short positions, and the pressure of loose supply remained, with some improvement in terminal demand.
From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a high level in early April, with limited upward potential. In late April, the overall market for hydrogen peroxide fluctuated widely, with a high probability of decline. The expected price is between 750 yuan/ton and 800 yuan/ton.

In the first half of April, the TDI market in East China first rose and then fell, with gains giving up. As of April 14th, the average market price in East China was 20100 yuan/ton, and as of April 1st, the average price was 20200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% during the period and an increase of 81.63% year-on-year. Due to high prices, downstream resistance is evident, demand is sluggish, and market transaction prices have loosened.
Supply and demand side: Domestic facilities such as Wanhua maintain medium to high load operation, market inventory is low, domestic demand is average, and foreign demand is good.
On the cost side: The toluene market fluctuates with crude oil prices, with downstream demand for replenishment and average gas purchases, causing toluene prices to fluctuate and decline.
Overall, the TDI market currently has ample supply, weak domestic demand, export support, and low inventory levels, which interact with each other to minimize price fluctuations. Based on the spot market analysis of Shengyi Society, the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average have overlapped, indicating that the market has reached a turning point and the price position is high, with limited upward space. TDI prices may be weakly stabilized and consolidated.