According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price center of polyester filament has been partially raised. As of August 15th, the POY (150D/48F) quotation of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is between 6600-6900 yuan/ton, the DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quotation of polyester is between 7800-8050 yuan/ton, and the FDY (150D/96F) quotation of polyester is between 7000-7200 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost, on August 15th, international crude oil futures rose by 1.77% (WTI $63.96/barrel, Brent $66.84/barrel), and PX (p-xylene) prices rose synchronously to $833.67/ton. Costs were transmitted to PTA (polyester raw materials), and PTA futures settlement prices rose by 0.6% to 4708 yuan/ton, boosting confidence with the rebound of crude oil. PTA processing fees have been expanded to over 200 yuan/ton, while FDY’s cash flow losses still reach -487 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have raised prices to restore profit margins.
In terms of supply and demand, polyester factories maintain a high operating rate of over 90%, but leading enterprises regulate the market through centralized production cuts (such as FDY capacity utilization being lower than the industry average), coupled with limited new capacity added in August, temporarily easing supply pressure. Terminal textile orders have not yet substantially rebounded, with weaving enterprises holding 36.8 days of raw fabric inventory, and procurement mainly focused on essential needs. In mid to late August, the traditional off-season comes to an end, and the strength of demand recovery needs to be observed in the launch of “Golden September and Silver October” orders. The psychology of buying up rather than buying down dominates, and manufacturers create expectations of price increases by continuously raising prices, forcing downstream customers to passively purchase goods.
Business Society believes that the market is in a game of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. The volatility of crude oil is expected to narrow (Brent $66.59/barrel), and the impact on the cost side is expected to weaken; If the downstream “Golden September and Silver October” stocking is launched, polyester prices may slightly rise, but in the short term, the upward space is limited.
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