According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market experienced slight fluctuations and a downward trend in December. As of December 14th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4639 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from the beginning of the month.
The recent supply side risks of crude oil have not been eliminated, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions still support oil prices. However, there has been no improvement in crude oil demand, and overall, international oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.28 per barrel. After a short shutdown, some PX units were restarted and the oil adjustment atmosphere cooled down, but the subsequent increase in PX unit maintenance has reduced the expected start-up, providing strong bottom support.
In terms of its own supply, PTA currently has no plans to adjust its new facilities. Some of the facilities that were shut down in November have not yet been restarted, such as the 2.2 million ton plant in Yisheng Ningbo that was shut down on November 20th; Dushan Energy’s 2.5 million ton facility will shut down on November 5th; The Zhuhai BP 1.1 million ton plant will be shut down on November 6th. The supply remains stable, and the overall industry operating rate is around 73%.
The downstream polyester factory equipment has not changed much, maintaining a high operating rate of around 86%. Since December, the trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market has been quite quiet, with factory inventory continuing to grow and shipping intentions increasing. The enthusiasm of terminal weaving enterprises for raw material procurement has decreased, and there has been no concentrated large-scale replenishment.
Business analysts believe that as Christmas approaches, a seasonal rebound in demand may provide support for oil prices. Downstream polyester factories may be scheduled for early holidays, and there is an expectation of a decline in weaving start-up rates in the future. At present, the expectation of accumulated inventory is still high, and it is expected that PTA prices will show a fluctuating downward trend.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on December 11th was 1183 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on December 5th, which was 1183 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have been running steadily. This week, the operating rate of coking grade ammonium sulfate remained stable, while the operating rate of domestic grade ammonium sulfate decreased, resulting in a decrease in market supply. At present, the market demand is flat, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. We are mainly cautious and cautious, and new transactions of ammonium sulfate are limited. The export market for ammonium sulfate has not improved, and terminal demand needs to be increased.
market situation
As of December 11th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 970 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1150-1200 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been consolidating and operating recently. At present, the transaction atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market is average, with support from the domestic supply side and downstream on-demand procurement, resulting in weak market demand. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly consolidate due to weak prices.

1、 Market dynamics
This week, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown a “weak stable consolidation and narrow range oscillation” operating characteristic under the continuous game of slight increase in supply and cautious downstream procurement. As of December 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (6083.33 yuan/ton).
The current ‘weak stability’ pattern is the result of a temporary balance of multiple forces such as supply, demand, and cost.
1. Supply side:
According to market information, the supply of acrylic acid in the market has indeed increased. However, it is worth noting that the current market operating rate may not be at a high level. Holders of goods generally adopt a flexible offer strategy of “following the market”, and their willingness to lower prices in the bottom price area is not strong, which has formed a certain support for the market.
2. Demand side:
Downstream demand is the core constraint factor in the current market. The average performance of orders in the terminal field (such as coatings, adhesives, SAP resins, etc.) has led downstream factories and traders to adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The procurement behavior is strictly based on urgent needs and small orders, lacking the enthusiasm for bulk stocking, and generally having a mentality of price suppression. This “on-demand procurement and bargain hunting” model has resulted in a lack of motivation for price increases and a stagnant market.
3. Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively stable in early December. As of December 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6220.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). High costs have made manufacturers strongly willing to raise prices, but in the case of weak demand, cost support is difficult to smoothly transmit downstream, resulting in continuous compression of profit margins.
2、 Short term outlook:
Overall, the acrylic acid market does not have the conditions to break the deadlock in the short term. The market is expected to continue consolidating within the current low range. The price fluctuation range is limited and lacks clear directional guidance. The core contradiction of the market is still the game of “high cost, weak demand”.
3、 Long term trend:
It is worth noting that in the long run, the acrylic acid industry is undergoing structural changes. The massive increase in production capacity will lead to loose supply, and the core of industry competition is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium”. Top enterprises with the production capacity of high-end specialty products (such as high-purity electronic grade and medical grade acrylic acid) and cost advantages in the integrated industrial chain will gain stronger competitiveness.

According to data analysis from Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6223.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). Although prices have risen, the core downstream demand remains weak, resulting in a lack of momentum for price increases.
Supply side:
The overall operating rate of the industry remains at around 74%. Some PDH devices are expected to restart, and there is a possibility of increased supply.
Demand side:
Polypropylene: As the largest consumer sector of propylene, the PP industry is experiencing deep production losses and proactive reduction of burdens. As of the second week of December, the industry’s production profit remained in the deep loss range of around -300 yuan/ton. As a result, its operating load rate has dropped to a low of 40% -42%. As of December 9th, the benchmark price for PP (wire drawing) in Shengyi Society was 6330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6363.33 yuan/ton).
Epoxy propane (PO): Although the industry’s profit has slightly recovered from the loss line, maintaining a rigid procurement strategy for raw material propylene makes it difficult to form a sustained demand for replenishment. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% compared to the beginning of this month (7933.33 yuan/ton).
Acrylic acid: The industry’s production and profits are relatively stable, providing fundamental support for the demand for acrylic acid. However, due to its limited total demand and growth space, it is unable to offset the gap of declining demand for PP powder. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (6083.33 yuan/ton).
Acrylonitrile (AN): The industry is in an unsustainable state of “high production and high losses”. Behind the current operating rate of around 81% is a cash flow loss of over -500 yuan/ton. Its high load operation is mainly due to market share and cash flow considerations, but it has become a significant potential risk point in downstream demand, and there is a possibility of centralized maintenance due to intensified losses in the future. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of acrylonitrile in Shengyi Society was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% compared to the beginning of this month (7900.00 yuan/ton).
Cost aspect:
International oil prices are trending towards volatility, and the pressure of medium to long-term oversupply still exists, resulting in insufficient cost support for propylene. The relatively firm price of propane has led to continuous losses in the PDH (propane dehydrogenation) process route, but has not yet triggered large-scale maintenance and production reduction.
In summary, the current core logic of the propylene market is a rebalancing driven by demand contraction. The widespread losses and low profits in downstream industries have formed a negative transmission of raw material demand by reducing operating rates. Until there is no significant recovery in terminal consumption and downstream product inventory is effectively depleted, it is expected that propylene prices will maintain a low volatility pattern, and its rebound space will continue to be strictly constrained by demand. The focus of observing market trends is on the profit recovery process of the PP powder industry and whether industries such as acrylonitrile will experience supply contraction due to cash flow pressure.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on December 1st was 6905 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 5th was 6845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9000 yuan/ton on December 1st and 8500 yuan/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 1.11%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7387 yuan/ton on December 1st and 7312 yuan/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 1.02%.
Recently, polyethylene remains weak and difficult to change. Polyethylene supply continues to increase, inventory remains high, and there are not many planned maintenance units in December. The demand performance is flat, with many companies purchasing on demand and low enthusiasm for receiving goods. They adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude, and the overall downstream operating rate has declined. The demand for greenhouse film is gradually decreasing, the improvement in demand for plastic film is limited, and the packaging film industry is in the off-season. There is currently no positive news to stimulate, the fundamentals are weak, and market confidence is insufficient. It is expected that polyethylene will remain weak and difficult to change.