This week, the domestic PVC market’s spot and futures prices have weakened synchronously, with prices fluctuating and falling. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall transactions are relatively weak. The emotional speculation caused by the previous real estate policy has gradually subsided, returning to the fundamental game. Supply has slightly rebounded, and demand has rebounded seasonally, but the strength is insufficient. The industry is still in a loss making state, and costs have formed a bottom support for prices. The SG-5 weekly decline of East China calcium carbide method was as high as 5.1%.
1、 Price Trends
Spot (SG-5 carbide method)
The mainstream of cash withdrawal in East China: 4780-4860 yuan/ton; The market in Linyi, Shandong Province has cumulatively lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton this week, and slightly loosened to 4700-4750 yuan/ton over the weekend.
Ethylene based PVC: 5350-5500 yuan/ton, affected by the cost of ethylene raw materials, the price is relatively resistant to decline.
Futures market
The main PVC contract of Dashang Exchange continued to decline within the week, and the rebound market driven by previous policies fell back. The market followed the weakness of spot prices, and the basis was slightly repaired. The market’s bullish confidence fell, and short-term fluctuations were mainly weak.
2、 Trend analysis
Supply side: The maintenance department has resumed work, and the operating rate has slightly increased
This week, some of the early maintenance equipment resumed production, and the manufacturer’s load generally increased. There were not many new maintenance additions, and the operating rate increased to nearly 70%, still in a relatively low position compared to the same period in recent years.
However, currently, companies using the calcium carbide method and ethylene method generally suffer losses, especially those using the ethylene method which suffer from significant losses. These losses suppress the willingness of companies to actively increase production, resulting in limited recovery of production and difficulty in maintaining high prices. If the price continues to decline in the later stage, it is not ruled out that some companies may reduce production and lower prices again to protect prices.
Demand side: Insufficient quality during the peak season of Golden September, making it difficult to sustain high levels
In terms of downstream demand, plastic product companies have seen a slight increase in production, with overall downstream production rising to over 40%, a slight improvement compared to the previous peak season, but significantly lower than the level of previous years. Real estate remains the core drag, with limited transmission of terminal real estate completion. There has been no significant increase in new orders for pipe and profile enterprises, and most of them are mainly purchased on demand and taken as needed, resulting in insufficient procurement and stockpiling. Moreover, the absolute value of overall inventory is still high, the pace of destocking is slow, and inventory pressure has not substantially eased.
Export: Overseas shipping costs have risen, and external quotes have strengthened, but actual overseas buying follow-up is limited, and export growth is limited, making it difficult to hedge domestic pressure.
Cost end
Calcium carbide: Coal and blue carbon prices remain high, with strong cost support for calcium carbide. However, PVC prices are below the cost line, and the calcium carbide method continues to suffer losses, becoming a hard support below spot prices and limiting the potential for significant deep declines. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, although the price of calcium carbide is at a high level, there is a downward trend, with a slight decrease of 0.74% this week.
Ethylene process: International crude oil is fluctuating at a high level, and the cost of ethylene raw materials is high. The losses of ethylene process enterprises are further amplified, which suppresses the operating rate of ethylene process.
3、 Future prospects
Analysts believe that PVC will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term: there are still many negative factors in the market, supply is expected to recover, operating rates may continue to rise, and terminal demand is weak, with limited improvement in real estate terminal demand. Downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing, high inventory needs to be digested, and weak futures sentiment is suppressing spot prices. So, recently PVC prices have been mainly weak.

As of September 16, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1134 yuan or 17.62% compared to September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price trend data
In early September, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a significant upward trend. During this period, the n-butanol market price in Shandong continued to approach high levels, with a cumulative increase of about 1000-1200 yuan/ton. As of September 16th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong was around 8800-9100 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: In early September, the market price of propylene at the raw material end of n-butanol fluctuated and rose, providing overall cost support for n-butanol. The n-butanol market rose with the support of raw materials.
In terms of supply and demand: As we enter September, the overall inventory of Shandong n-butanol production plants is relatively low, and the overall supply on site is limited. The supply pressure is controllable. At the beginning of the month, the downstream receiving sentiment of n-butanol was clear, and the demand transmission improved. With the rise of the market, downstream resistance to high prices gradually emerged. Although the overall market demand has weakened compared to the previous period, the overall supply and demand transmission is still relatively smooth.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild and light, and inquiries on the market are cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the n-butanol market price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Specific attention needs to be paid to the downstream industry’s operating conditions and changes in supply and demand factors.

Since September, the domestic EVA market has fluctuated and risen, with leading petrochemical plants raising their ex factory prices multiple times, with a single increase of 300-700 yuan/ton. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and overall inventories of petrochemical plants and society are low. As of September 15th, the benchmark price of EVA was 11016 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.27% from 10366 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Brent crude oil fluctuated at a high level, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene reached $1147.5/ton, and East China vinyl acetate reached $7550-7775/ton, forming strong support for EVA raw material costs.
Multiple sets of EVA devices on the supply side undergo centralized maintenance and brand switching, resulting in an overall industry operating rate dropping to 65% -70%; The output of photovoltaic grade particles has decreased, while the supply of foam grade particles is relatively abundant. The import of high-end photovoltaic materials to Hong Kong has limited increment, and the price difference between categories is obvious.
The photovoltaic film industry saw a slight decline in production to 78% in September, with EVA module procurement being the main demand. The inventory of film factories is within a reasonable range, and there is currently no large-scale replenishment; Traditional foaming, shoe materials, and hot melt adhesives are still in the off-season, and terminal orders are weak, maintaining on-demand procurement; The overall demand suppresses the upward trend of EVA prices.
EVA prices have been rapidly rising recently, with spot prices standing at the 5/10/20/30/60 day moving average. The short, medium, and long-term moving averages have shifted from suppression to support, showing a bullish trend. Short term price breakthrough, unleashing rebound momentum; But after a short-term rapid rise, there is a need for a pullback to digest demand. It is necessary to observe the effectiveness of the lower moving average support and continue to track whether the volume can continue, in order to determine the sustainability of this round of rebound.
Looking ahead to the future, short-term EVA will maintain a strong oscillation, but the upward space is limited. Under the support of low inventory and cost, petrochemical companies have a strong willingness to raise prices; Traditional downstream industries are difficult to quickly recover, and film companies tend to be cautious in their procurement, resulting in insufficient momentum to chase price increases.

In the first half of September, the domestic propylene glycol market showed a trend of “first suppression, then rebound, and rapid rise”, with a significant shift in price focus compared to the end of August. However, the dominant logic of the market is not demand recovery, but strong transmission from the raw material side. As of September 14th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 10766 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.13% from the beginning of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost side: High level support from epoxy propane, but weakened marginal support
The cost of propylene glycol is highly linked to epoxy propane (PO). In early September, the strong operation of epichlorohydrin provided cost support for propylene glycol and was an important driving force behind this round of price increases; However, the market expects epoxy propane to strengthen in the first half of the year and gradually weaken in the second half, and the cost support will be marginally loosened, making it difficult for the cost side to continue driving propylene glycol to further increase significantly. The fluctuation of propylene raw materials is limited, the bottom line of costs is still in place, and the short-term space for deep decline is limited.
Supply side: Short term maintenance disturbance, suppressed expected increase in production resumption
The early maintenance of the equipment resulted in a tight supply of spot goods, causing strong price support sentiment among holders and driving up prices; But in the latter half of the year, some devices were restarted one after another, and market supply expectations increased, suppressing some upward space.
On the demand side: Jinjiu’s expected fulfillment is insufficient, with a focus on urgent needs and conservative stocking
Although it has entered the traditional peak season of September, downstream order recovery is weak, and the increase in production is limited. The resin and coating industries maintain on-demand demand, while the antifreeze industry is still in the off-season. The overall demand increment is limited, which restricts the comprehensive and significant rise of the market.
Market forecast:
Short term: With the gradual resumption of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the supply of goods is gradually released, and the expectation of loose supply is realized. On the premise that there is no obvious outbreak of demand, the price is under pressure and falls, oscillating downwards. If epoxy propane unexpectedly continues to strengthen and production is delayed, the high-level oscillation time will be prolonged, but it will be difficult to continue to rise significantly.

This week, the epoxy chloropropane market continued its upward trend. As of September 11th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57% compared to the beginning of this month. The price center of gravity continues to shift upwards, but downstream resistance to high prices is heating up simultaneously, and the market presents a pattern of “pushing up and playing games”.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material end: cost support rigidity enhancement. In terms of propylene, the resonance between crude oil and propylene has driven up prices, providing strong cost support. The tense geopolitical situation has pushed up the prices of crude oil and propane, coupled with a reduction in external sales of some major PDH companies, and the cost side support for propylene continues to strengthen. In terms of glycerol, although there are signs of weakening in external prices, prices remain firm in the context of tight domestic supply. Under the situation of dual raw materials rising simultaneously, the cost support of epichlorohydrin is relatively rigid. As of September 11th, the benchmark price of propylene is 10034.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.77% compared to the beginning of this month (8977.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Construction has rebounded but the increase is limited. This week, the average weekly production capacity utilization rate of epichlorohydrin in China was 45.34%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from last week. The overall supply has decreased compared to last week. The industry’s operating rate is still at a low level, and there is no obvious pressure on the supply side, which forms a certain bottom support for prices.
Demand side: Urgent follow-up, cautious pursuit of high prices. The downstream epoxy resin market has been passively pushed up by raw material costs, but there is insufficient follow-up from the demand side, resulting in severe losses for factories, which mainly rely on executing previous orders. The operating rate of solid epoxy resin decreased by 2 percentage points to 40% compared to last week, and the operating rate of liquid epoxy resin also slightly fell to 50%. The downstream has limited acceptance of high priced raw materials, and the procurement maintains a rhythm of small order demand, resulting in a weak market trading atmosphere.
Market forecast: Analysts believe that there will be strong short-term fluctuations and focus on stocking pace. At present, there is still upward momentum on the cost side, and there is no significant pressure on the overall supply side. Coupled with the gradual release of downstream enterprise stocking demand before the National Day holiday, multiple favorable factors are resonating, and it is expected that the short-term epoxy chloropropane market will continue to maintain a strong operation. However, it should be noted that the profit loss of the glycerol process has expanded to 1043 yuan/ton, and the profit of the propylene process has also shrunk, highlighting the contradiction in profit distribution in the industrial chain. If downstream resistance to high priced raw materials further intensifies, the upward space for prices may be constrained. It is expected that the market will mainly experience strong fluctuations next week, with a focus on the actual release rhythm of National Day stocking.