This week (3.2-3.6), polyester bottle chips: unilateral strong rise, cost driven, futures led increase. As of March 6th, according to the price data of Shengyi Society, the mainstream spot average price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 7065 yuan/ton.
core driver
1. Cost side: Absolute dominance, skyrocketing across the entire line
Crude oil: As of March 6th, the main WTI crude oil contract has stabilized at $80 per barrel. This cost hurricane at the source quickly spreads downstream along the industrial chain. As the core raw material of PET, PTA has shown extremely aggressive performance, with the main contract closing at 5918.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41% again from the previous settlement.
Although the nominal price of PET bottle flakes has entered the “7″ mark, production enterprises are in a “passive follow-up” state. Due to the rapid increase in upstream raw material prices, the profit margin of PET bottle processing has been squeezed to the limit.
2. Supply: Low level operation, tight pattern
The production in February was 1.2314 million tons, a decrease of -11.93% compared to the previous month; The capacity utilization rate is around 66.48%.
This week’s load was 68.4%, slightly higher than the previous week but still low; Low inventory of spot goods and limited supply of low-priced goods.
Shipping in the Red Sea/Persian Gulf is obstructed, and exports and logistics are restricted, exacerbating local tensions.
3. Requirement: Prioritize basic needs and cautiously pursue higher ones
The peak season for downstream beverages/packaging has started, and the demand for essential products has stabilized; At high prices, the focus is on digesting inventory and purchasing on demand.
After the mid week surge, downstream resistance increased, and spot prices slightly rebounded on Friday.
Future forecast
Overall, the cost push caused by geopolitical factors is the core driving force behind the current PET bottle price shock of 7000 yuan/ton. As long as there is no substantial cooling of the situation in the Middle East, strong cost support will be difficult to prove.
Clear judgment: In the short term, PET bottle flakes will maintain a high volatility in the range of 7000-7500 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on March 5th was 1328 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.18% compared to the average market price of 1216 yuan/ton on March 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have risen significantly, and the operating rate of ammonium sulfate has slightly adjusted. Due to the Middle East conflict, international urea prices have risen and domestic fertilizer raw material supply is tight, resulting in a continuous increase in ammonium sulfate prices. Downstream actively restocking, the bullish sentiment in the ammonium sulfate market is high, and bidding and transaction prices continue to rise.
market situation
As of March 5th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1250 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1320-1360 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market has been dominant. The market for ammonium sulfate is strong, and holders are mainly pushing prices. Affected by international factors and high support from urea, it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

Since March, the domestic potassium chloride market has continued the previous pattern of tight supply and demand. Supported by multiple factors such as limited domestic potassium supply, highly concentrated imported sources, and concentrated demand for spring plowing fertilizers, prices remain high and firm. Although there may be slight price differences in different regions due to varying demand rhythms, the overall market presents a trend of easy rise but difficult fall.
1、 Price Status:
According to data monitoring from Shengyi Society, the price of potassium chloride continued its upward trend from the end of last month at the beginning of March. As of March 4th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was reported at 3700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91% compared to the beginning of this month (3666.67 yuan/ton). This data confirms that the current market is in a steady upward trend.
From a broader regional market perspective, the strong price characteristics are evident. In the main sales areas of the north, ports such as Yantai Port and Qingdao Port maintain high prices for 62% white potassium; In the southern sales regions, such as Fujian, the supply and marketing system data shows that the retail price of Canadian produced red potassium chloride has reached 3800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.70% compared to the same period last year. In addition, the China Agricultural Supplies Circulation Association’s China Potassium Chloride Wholesale Price Index (CKPI) also showed that the index continued to rise month on month, reaching 3241.89 points, further verifying the strong performance of the spot market.
2、 Driver factor analysis:
1. Supply side:
The core support of the current market is still on the supply side. Domestically, although production in major production areas such as Qinghai is gradually recovering, it will still take time to fully increase production, and the supply capacity of domestically produced potassium is limited. In terms of imports, although there are goods arriving at ports one after another, the supply of goods is highly concentrated in the hands of large traders, resulting in a relatively tight overall circulation of goods in the market. The structural problem of “explicit inventory increase but implicit circulation tension” has strengthened the bargaining power of the holders.
2. Demand side:
In early March, the nationwide spring plowing and fertilizer preparation has entered a critical peak period. The demand for base fertilizer for wheat greening and subsequent spring crops such as corn and rice is being concentrated, and the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer factories continues to rise. There is a strong willingness to purchase raw material potassium chloride. This concentrated release of essential needs provides tangible consumer support for the current high prices.
3、 Regional market differences:
Northern region: As the main battlefield for spring plowing fertilizer, the demand is strong, and coupled with the concentration of port sources, prices are relatively firm, and the focus of transactions continues to shift upwards.
Southern region: Demand follow-up is relatively flat, mainly based on on-demand procurement. Although prices are also high, overall they are slightly lower than the northern market.
4、 Future outlook:
Looking ahead to mid to late March, it is expected that the potassium chloride market will maintain the main tone of “high-level stability”. On the one hand, in the context of national reserve regulation and import long order locking, prices do not have the basis for irrational price surges; On the other hand, with the support of tight global supply and domestic demand for spring plowing, there is also little room for significant price decline.
It is expected that the price of potassium chloride will remain firm in the short term, and there may be slight fluctuations in some areas due to changes in supply and demand rhythm, but the overall operating range will remain stable and controllable. Market participants need to pay close attention to the pace of the northern spring plowing fertilizer launch and the arrival speed of new port sources.

The current rise in acrylic acid prices is mainly driven by the rising costs of crude oil, propane, and propylene due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rather than a shortage of production capacity. The market is characterized by short-term strength, pulse rise, and weak sustainability. The turning point of the price will be determined by the trend of oil prices, the situation of raw material prices stopping rising, and downstream willingness to receive goods.
1、 Market Overview
As of March 3, 2026, the benchmark price of acrylic acid is 6583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.67% compared to the beginning of this month (6350.00 yuan/ton).
During the same period, the spot price of propylene in East China was 6480 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. The PDH cost was between 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the cost continued to increase. Brent crude oil has risen to $65-75 per barrel due to geopolitical premiums, with the Strait of Hormuz accounting for 20% -30% of global seaborne crude oil trade, and energy supply chain expectations tightening. The total domestic production capacity of acrylic acid is about 4.4 million tons per year, with a self-sufficiency rate of nearly 100%. The production capacity of acrylic acid in the Middle East is only 400000 to 450000 tons per year, accounting for less than 5% of the global market share, and has minimal direct impact on the domestic market supply.
2、 Cost end
Acrylic acid is mainly produced through the propylene oxidation process, with raw material costs accounting for over 60% and strong cost transmission rigidity. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the prices of crude oil and LPG, driving up the prices of raw materials such as propane and naphtha, pushing up the cost of propylene and transmitting it to acrylic acid, resulting in a passive upward trend in the market. The domestic PDH route has a high proportion and is sensitive to the supply and logistics of propane in the Middle East. The risk premium on the energy side quickly translates into cost support, which is the core driving force behind this round of price increases.
3、 Supply side
The Middle East is not a major producer of acrylic acid globally, and there is currently no direct risk of supply interruption to the domestic market. The overall supply side remains loose. However, the potential disturbance brought by geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. If the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will directly affect the logistics efficiency and supply expectations of global LPG and propylene, push up international fuel and chemical raw material prices, and indirectly intensify the cost pressure on domestic acrylic acid enterprises. At present, the overall operation of the industry is stable, and there is sufficient domestic supply of goods. The price increase is not due to supply contraction, but the result of the combined effect of cost push and enterprise price increase.
4、 Demand side
The Middle East is not a major production area for acrylic acid, and there is currently no direct risk of supply interruption domestically. The overall supply is loose. But if the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will affect the global logistics and supply expectations of LPG and propylene, push up international raw material prices, and indirectly exacerbate the cost pressure of domestic acrylic acid. At present, the industry is operating steadily and the supply is sufficient. This round of price increases is not a contraction of supply, but a combination of cost push and enterprise price increase.
5、 Subsequent market trends

Under the benchmark scenario, if the conflict is limited and shipping is normal, and oil prices operate in the range of $65-75 per barrel, acrylic acid is expected to rise by 5% -10%, and the rise will last for 2-4 weeks. Later, it will gradually fluctuate and fall back with the increase of downstream resistance. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for 1-2 weeks in the short term, oil prices will rise to 80-90 US dollars per barrel, and acrylic acid prices may jump by 15% -25%. The strong market will last for 4-8 weeks, and gradually decline after the conflict eases. If there is a long-term conflict and interruption of raw material supply for more than one month, and oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, acrylic acid is expected to increase by more than 30%, and the upward cycle will be extended to 3-6 months, but the probability of this scenario occurring is low.
In summary, the main risks in the current market are concentrated in the unexpected escalation of geopolitical conflicts, significant fluctuations in oil prices, excessive pressure on downstream profits leading to load reduction and production cuts, and the release of new production capacity causing the industry to return to loose conditions. We need to focus on tracking three core indicators in the future: Brent crude oil price, East China propylene spot price, propane/CP price, and changes in PDH profit.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the February market for polyaluminum chloride in China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) market was mainly reported at around 1720 yuan/ton on the 28th and 1720 yuan/ton on the 1st, maintaining stability. The water treatment market in China’s main production areas has abundant supply, and downstream procurement is based on demand. The price of raw material hydrochloric acid has declined, the fuel market has declined, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride has decreased. During the off-season of demand before and after the Spring Festival, procurement for municipal/industrial projects slowed down and stocking decreased. In the early stage of resuming work after the holiday, the demand for goods gradually recovered, but the overall procurement volume was limited and mainly consisted of small orders.
Raw material hydrochloric acid: In February, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell, and as of February 28th, the price of hydrochloric acid was at 75 yuan/ton.
Liquefied natural gas for production. The domestic liquefied natural gas market prices fell sharply in February. As of February 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 3118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.63% from 3610 yuan/ton on February 1st. The liquefied natural gas market is showing an overall trend of oversupply.
Market forecast: The raw material hydrochloric acid market will decline in February, the fuel liquefied natural gas market will decline, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decrease. On the supply side, China has abundant inventory of polyaluminum chloride; On the demand side, downstream work resumed in March, and demand gradually rebounded; The supply increases with the increase of operating rate, and the supply-demand trend is weakly balanced. It is expected that the recent market trend of polyaluminum chloride will mainly consolidate.