This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline, with an average market price of 7600 yuan/ton as of June 26, a decrease of 1.3% from 7700 yuan/ton on June 22.
Supply side: Recently, the concentrated resumption of production of maleic anhydride units has increased market supply, coupled with insufficient downstream orders and hindered shipments, resulting in a continuous decline in prices for the main maleic anhydride factories. As of June 26th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 6300-6600 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 6100-6300 yuan/ton.
Upstream: The n-butane market fell sharply in mid June, and the domestic n-butane price rose slightly to 5450 yuan/ton this week. The CP price in Saudi Arabia in June was 820 US dollars per ton, an increase of 20 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month.
Downstream: This week, the domestic unsaturated resin market saw weak consolidation, while upstream styrene and maleic anhydride continued to decline, dragging down costs. The downstream fiberglass and building materials industries entered the traditional off-season of high temperatures, with insufficient terminal production. The short-term market still maintains a weak and narrow range of fluctuations.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin industry on the demand side is difficult to significantly increase in the short term, and the raw material prices on the cost side are weak. The production cost support for maleic anhydride is weak, and coupled with the recent concentrated resumption of maleic anhydride production, the market supply has increased. In the short term, the domestic maleic anhydride market will still remain weak.

Recently, the domestic market price of butadiene rubber has continued to decline. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 26, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 13010 yuan/ton at the end of February; The closing price of the main contract for Shunding rubber futures fell to 11810 yuan/ton. We have completely reversed all the gains caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict and returned to the benchmark range before the conflict broke out.
With the comprehensive cooling of tensions in the Middle East, the geopolitical speculation logic of commodities has completely disintegrated. International crude oil prices have fluctuated and weakened, directly driving down the price of butadiene. Data shows that the current butadiene port inventory remains at a high level of 38500 tons, with a slight increase of 2.39% month on month. With sufficient raw material supply and downward pressure on prices, the production cost center of the butadiene rubber industry continues to move downwards, providing solid cost support for the continuous decline in rubber prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 26th, the price of butadiene was 8900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.94% from 9993 yuan/ton at the end of February.
The pressure on the supply and demand side of butadiene rubber has further accelerated the price decline. Recently, the production profit of the domestic butadiene rubber industry has slightly recovered, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises has increased. The equipment production has steadily rebounded, and the latest industry capacity utilization rate has risen to 69.26%. The market supply of goods continues to increase.
At present, the downstream is in the traditional off-season of the tire industry, and the operating rate of terminal tire enterprises has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of on-demand procurement and on-demand procurement, with weak demand for goods and difficulty in digesting sufficient market supply. As of June 18th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 6.90%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.60%.
Market forecast:
After the death cross of the moving average in early April 2026, it entered a long-term downward channel, with a continuous bearish alignment on both lines and a significant drop in prices. The current bearish trend of the moving average remains unchanged.
Overall, the current market price, cost, and supply and demand data of butadiene rubber have returned to the fundamental level before the Middle East conflict, and the market trading sentiment is generally cautious. In the short term, the geopolitical benefits have been completely exhausted, and there is still room for decline in the raw material butadiene. Coupled with the continued pattern of high industry production and weak downstream demand during the off-season, rubber prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend.

Recently, the polyethylene market has been under pressure and declining. LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 7806 yuan/ton on June 19th and 7541 yuan/ton on June 24th, a decrease of 3.39%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9650 yuan/ton on June 19th and 9133 yuan/ton on June 24th, a decrease of 5.35%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 19th was 10062 yuan/ton, and on June 24th it was 9782 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%.
Cost side: Raw materials continue to decline. The geopolitical premium has subsided, international crude oil has fallen sharply, the cost center of polyethylene production continues to move downwards, and the ex factory price of petrochemicals and traders have continuously lowered, directly driving the overall decline of spot prices.
Supply side: Overall supply is loose, with only localized structural tightness. Imported goods are concentrated at the port, while external goods continue to flow into the domestic market. Domestic early-stage maintenance equipment has resumed production in a concentrated manner, and the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily rebounded. The overall supply of goods has increased more than decreased, and only some equipment has undergone long-term maintenance, resulting in a local structural shortage of goods, which only slightly alleviates the decline.
Demand side: Traditional off-season in the industry. The production of agricultural film and plastic film has ended, and the autumn greenhouse film has not yet started. The downstream of packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials have entered the off-season synchronously. Downstream order follow-up is weak, adopting a “buy as you go” approach, resulting in a lack of buying opportunities in the market.
Due to the off-season demand, weak support for crude oil costs, and overall loose supply of goods, polyethylene maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The short-term decline rate has slowed down, but it is difficult to see a trend reversal, and the rebound space is limited.

market trend
The price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st (20766.67 yuan/ton), and entered a sideways trend after falling to 19800.00 yuan/ton on June 15th. During the week of June 17th to June 23rd, the reference price of PA66 remained stable at 19800.00 yuan/ton, with daily fluctuations of 0.00% for several consecutive days. The overall trend is characterized by “stabilization and weak stalemate”, with the price center having fallen by about 4.65% since the beginning of the month.
influencing factors
On the cost side: There is ample room for upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine to fall earlier this week, and raw material prices have gradually stopped falling and stabilized. The comprehensive production cost of PA66 is no longer continuing to decline, forming a bottom support for spot prices and preventing the market from continuing to decline sharply. However, the crude oil market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with no upward drive from upstream energy sources. Raw materials have only stopped falling without rebounding, and there are still reasonable profits in the processing stage. Manufacturers currently have no incentive to reduce production due to losses, and the cost side can only limit the decline and cannot provide upward driving force, making it difficult to drive the price of PA66 to rebound.
Supply and demand side: Overall, there is a pattern of loose supply and weak demand. In terms of supply, the overall market supply is sufficient. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually accumulating, and the pressure of shipment has increased. The phenomenon of traders offering discounts to promote transactions has also increased. In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream terminal industries is not as expected, coupled with the current industry entering a traditional off-season, downstream factories only maintain rigid replenishment, and the willingness to purchase in large quantities is low, making it difficult to boost overall market demand. The transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light.
technical analysis
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st, with an average difference of -113.33 yuan/ton on June 14th. The average difference has narrowed from negative to widening again, indicating that the PA66 market had previously fallen and the rate of decline has increased. The current price of 19800 yuan/ton is below the annual median. From the price position data, PA66 is at a “low” level in the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day positions, and at a “medium” level in the one-year position, indicating that it is in the low price range in the short and medium term, but still at a medium level in the annual dimension.
The current market is in a stage of “price sideways and direction unclear”. Although the short-term and medium-term positions are at a low level, the annual position is still at a medium level, and the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average have not yet formed a clear golden cross signal. It is recommended to temporarily suspend large-scale position building and focus on short-term observation.
post-market forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market will continue to experience weak fluctuations and a slight downward shift in focus. The overall trend will be dominated by a weak stalemate, and it is difficult for a significant rise or fall to occur. The price range is based on 19500-20300 yuan/ton, with a focus on low-level sideways bottoming out, waiting for clear positive signals from demand or raw materials before there is a chance for a rebound.

Recently, the lithium carbonate market has experienced severe fluctuations. As of June 23, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 157000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21% from the high point of 199000 yuan/ton on May 12 this year.
Supply side: Multiple pressure variables suppress the market
The recent changes in key land approval for the Jianxiawo lithium mine project have significantly disrupted the expected supply of domestic lithium mica raw materials. The mine is a globally leading single lithium mica deposit, with an annual production capacity of over 100000 tons of lithium carbonate after the project is completed; Affected by the expiration of the original mining license in August 2025, the mine has simultaneously stopped mining. As of now, the shutdown period has exceeded 10 months, and the industry has formed a monthly equivalent supply gap of nearly 10000 tons of lithium salt. Its resumption progress has always been a core observation variable in the lithium industry chain.
The Department of Natural Resources of Jiangxi Province officially issued the “Preliminary Review and Site Selection Opinion Letter for Construction Project Land” for Jianxiawo Lithium Mine on June 17, 2026. The license is valid from June 17, 2026 to June 17, 2029, and the administrative license subject is Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., which is an indirectly controlled mining platform by Ningde Times. This approval has obvious time characteristics: the original land pre-approval document for the project was only applied for cancellation by the enterprise on June 8th, and the complete process of canceling the old certificate and issuing the new certificate was completed with a ten day interval. The rapid implementation of policy procedures has boosted the market’s optimistic expectation for the rapid resumption of mining production.
However, judging from the legal approval chain for mineral development, the mine does not have the conditions for resuming production in the short term. The preliminary review of land use is only a pre planning procedure for the project. Subsequently, multiple provincial-level joint review processes need to be completed in sequence, including the delineation of mining area boundaries, evaluation of mineral resource development and utilization plans, environmental and safety assessment filing, issuance of mining license changes, and acceptance of safety production permits. The entire process takes a long time, and the current implementation of a single land use permit cannot support the short-term release of incremental raw material supply.
Overseas mining sector: In the long run, the supply and demand relationship of lithium carbonate is moving towards relaxation
Zimbabwe: The first batch of lithium ore has started shipping in mid May. Several Chinese companies with layouts in Zimbabwe have stated that the exported lithium concentrate is still in transit by sea and is expected to arrive at domestic ports by the end of June to early July. The bulk lithium ore is expected to arrive at the port in July. According to reports, Chinese companies have about 5000 tons of lithium concentrate in transit.
Australian mine: Bald Hill officially announced its restart on May 19th, with the first batch of lithium crystal ore expected to be produced in July. Finnis’ first batch of ore will enter the processing production line in the third quarter, and Ngungaju beneficiation plant plans to officially restart production in early July. We are fundamentally changing the pattern of “tight supply”, and it is expected that the increase in supply will begin to emerge in the fourth quarter of this year. In the long run, the supply and demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market is tending towards relaxation.
Continuous prosperity on the demand side
Recently, the downstream market of lithium carbonate has shown a structural trend of stable bottoming out in the automotive sector, high growth in energy storage, and cautious procurement. Power batteries are still the basic demand, and domestic sales of new energy vehicles have maintained a slight growth. The increase in single vehicle electric capacity has offset the slowdown in sales growth. The production of lithium iron phosphate has steadily increased compared to the previous period. However, car companies and battery factories strictly control raw material inventory and only replenish small orders according to demand, without centralized hoarding behavior.

Energy storage is the core increment, with a significant year-on-year increase in lithium battery production in June. The orders for energy storage cells are full and the schedule is extended until the end of the year. The demand for power generation and industrial and commercial distribution storage continues to be released, becoming the largest growth engine for lithium consumption. The proportion of consumer electronics demand is extremely low, and its impact on the market is weak.
The overall downstream production continues to rebound, and the industrial chain has entered a continuous destocking cycle. However, high futures positions suppress market sentiment, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is heavy. The main focus is on essential procurement, and short-term demand elasticity is limited. The annual growth is highly dependent on the realization of energy storage installed capacity.
Market forecast:
Overall, the current long short game is balanced with no clear unilateral driving force, and it is expected that lithium prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.