This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 373590 yuan/ton on October 30th and 385370 yuan/ton as of October 26th, a decrease of 3.06%.
Presenting a significant ‘roller coaster’ market trend. In the first half of the week, it steadily rose and reached its weekly high on October 28th. However, the bulls were unable to hold their ground, and the market took a sharp downturn on Thursday and Friday. On October 30th, there was a cliff like decline, with a sharp weekly amplitude and a single day drop of about 3.48%.
Fundamental analysis:
On the supply side, the market’s expectation for the recovery of overseas tin ore supply (such as the Wa State in Myanmar and other major producing areas) has always been a hanging “sword of Damocles”, and the support on the raw material side is gradually loosening.
On the demand side: Downstream electronics and solder companies generally have a “fear of high prices” attitude towards high priced tin ingots, mainly focusing on rigid procurement, making it difficult to provide sustained demand growth. In a pattern of strong supply and weak demand or weak supply and demand, prices are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiment or financial disturbances.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, the current tin price technology is breaking through, and the fundamentals lack substantial bullish drivers. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a weak and volatile bottoming trend next week. Investors are advised to pay attention to the effectiveness of the support level of 370000 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises can replenish their inventory as needed at low prices.

This week (10.23-10.29), the market for butadiene rubber rose. Data shows that as of October 29th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 16970 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22% from last Friday’s 16440 yuan/ton. During the week, the ex factory prices of CPC Northeast Daqing and Jinzhou were raised by 300 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets of Daqing, Sichuan, and Dushanzi were reported at 16850-17100 yuan/ton.
During the week, the raw material butadiene rebounded significantly. As of October 29th, the price of butadiene was 14200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.71% from last Friday’s 13433 yuan/ton. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have pushed up the crude oil hub, with naphtha following suit and strong reluctance among spot traders to sell. Based on the current price of butadiene, butadiene rubber only makes a small profit, and the factory has a strong willingness to raise prices.
The domestic production rate of butadiene rubber remains at a relatively low level of around 6.3%, and the market supply is relatively tight, which provides some support for butadiene rubber.
Recently, the downstream tire industry has gradually resumed production, with semi steel tire production rates around 6.50% and all steel tire production rates around 5.90%, showing a month on month rebound but a year-on-year decline. Overall, on-demand procurement has limited acceptance of high priced Shunding, which has a certain negative impact on the Shunding rubber market.
Market forecast:
The current price of butadiene rubber is firmly above the moving averages of each cycle, and the 5/10/20 daily moving averages are in a long position. After a slight increase in short-term prices, the support of the moving average remains, and the bullish structure is intact. Predict short-term high-level fluctuations and rely on the support of the moving average to operate relatively strongly. If it falls below the 5-day moving average, the risk of a pullback will increase.

From a fundamental perspective, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with the price center following the fluctuations of crude oil and butadiene. Cost support and low inventory form the bottom, but weak year-on-year demand for tires and accumulated inventory from traders will suppress upward potential. If crude oil falls back or there is a new volume of butadiene, there is a risk of price correction; On the contrary, if geopolitical risks continue, they are prone to surge.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in October
As of October 28th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.12% compared to the price of 8466.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, the isobutyraldehyde market fell from a high level and turned from strong to weak. In October, the isobutyraldehyde market was initially sideways at a high level, but fell back under pressure in the middle and late stages, turning from strong to weak, mainly dragging down the weakness of downstream neopentyl glycol from the main force; The supply side has device maintenance support, but the demand side lacks follow-up on buying orders, resulting in increased bargaining space for actual orders.
Cost side: limited support for propylene oscillation consolidation raw materials
On October 28th, the propylene price was 10927.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 12.57% compared to the propylene price of 9707.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, propylene fluctuated within a range without a unilateral surge, and there was no strong upward momentum on the cost side; At the same time, there was no deep drop, which formed a certain bottom support for isobutyraldehyde. Cost is not the main trend of this month’s market, and supply and demand (neopentyl glycol) are the main support for isobutyraldehyde’s rise and fall.
Demand side: New pentanediol drags down the market
The largest downstream consumption is neopentyl glycol. In October, the neopentyl glycol market continued to weaken, and major factories such as Wanhua lowered their quotations for bulk water for multiple rounds. The demand for polyester and powder coatings downstream of neopentyl glycol was flat, with average orders. The profit of neopentyl glycol factories was compressed, and they actively reduced the cost of raw material procurement, lowered prices, and purchased isobutyraldehyde according to demand. The market is’ afraid of heights+wait-and-see ‘, no longer chasing after price increases, buying only low-priced goods, and high priced transactions are stagnant.
Supply side: Partial maintenance, but expected incremental control
Isobutyraldehyde is a by-product of the co production of butanol and octanol, with production following the start of butanol and octanol production. There is little independent expansion, high industry concentration, and no large-scale shutdown maintenance; Part of the equipment is parked for maintenance, reducing some of the circulating goods and providing a bottom line for prices; In mid to late October, Wanhua Penglai isobutyraldehyde plant was successfully put into operation, with new production capacity added and maintenance equipment restarted, resulting in slow accumulation of shipping pressure. The expectation of loose supply directly suppressed the buying enthusiasm, and the bearish sentiment in the market significantly increased.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the main contradiction between supply and demand and cost in the future isobutyraldehyde market has not yet shown a reversal signal, and bearish factors still dominate. The incremental impact of Wanhua Penglai’s new production capacity, the expected restart of the Dawn device, and the supply side’s suppression of prices are likely to continue. On the demand side, it is difficult to see strong replenishment momentum for neopentyl glycol in the short term. The market for isobutyraldehyde is mainly weak, and there is still room for manufacturers to lower their quotes. Negotiations for actual orders continue to yield discounts. However, as propylene prices remain high, the cost side will continue to provide bottom support, and factories’ willingness to further significantly lower prices will be restrained. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future, but the downward trend may ease and the probability of a deep decline is limited.

In October, lithium carbonate experienced a rapid decline. As of October 27th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 101000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.8% from 120000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This sharp decline is not a sudden reversal of spot supply and demand, but rather a rapid cooling of sentiment in the market due to the expectation gap of “continued destocking in the near end and a shift towards easing in the long term”.
1、 Policy wise: Long term demand has a bottom, short-term expansion is limited
Seven departments jointly issued the “15th Five Year Plan” for the development of the new battery industry, clarifying the industry development goals by 2030 and providing policy endorsement for the long-term demand space of new energy vehicles and energy storage. This means that the demand narrative for lithium carbonate is supported by industrial planning in the medium to long term, and the industrial logic of continued price decline is not sufficient. But at the same time, it should be noted that policy documents have clear constraints on low-level redundant construction and blind expansion, and the space for disorderly and excessive supply on the supply side is strictly targeted by policies. Under the interweaving of long and short positions, the role of policies in dealing with prices is to block downward space in the long term, and to not support unilateral strengthening in the short term.
2、 Supply side: Production recovery combined with long-term mineral source expectations
From the perspective of actual output, the domestic production of lithium carbonate in September increased by 7.7% month on month. Although it was slightly lower than the production guidance at the beginning of the month, the absolute level is still recovering; Institutions expect a slight increase in production scheduling in October compared to the previous month, and the direction of domestic supply side easing has been established. What has a greater impact on the market is the long-term variables: Jianxiawo Mine has entered the environmental impact assessment approval public announcement, and the market’s expectations for the resumption of production of major mines and the gradual release of new mineral sources continue to rise. This is the core reason for the limited price elasticity in this round.
3、 Demand side: Insufficient color during peak season, rebound mainly in pulses
The demand structure shows obvious differentiation. The resilience of the energy storage field is still acceptable, and the production of power batteries has improved compared to the previous period. Downstream production has not stalled. But the problem lies in inventory: the inventory of positive electrode materials and finished products in battery factories is high, and the procurement strategy has shifted from “chasing price increases and replenishing inventory” to “controlling quantity and purchasing on demand when prices rise”. Once prices rebound, it will trigger downstream wait-and-see. The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season verification is nearing its end, and the actual driving effect is significantly weaker than expected. Under the pressure of new mineral sources in the long term, price rebound is more of a pulse market after oversold, which is difficult to evolve into a trend reversal.
4、 Market outlook: Wide range fluctuations may continue
The current industrial chain pattern can be summarized as follows: upstream lithium salt factories are accumulating inventory again, downstream are busy digesting long-term contract orders, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the trade process. The market is cautious about the expected sales of electric vehicles next year, and there is a lack of upward catalysis on the demand side in the short term. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate widely, and the long short game around 100000 yuan/ton will intensify. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

At the beginning of the month, the price of activated carbon was 12466 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 12533/ton, with a price increase of 0.53%.
Most domestic manufacturers of activated carbon have seen price increases this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-13000 yuan/ton, which is relatively firm. Due to the strong prices of upstream coconut shell carbonization materials and rising import costs, there is limited room for price reduction, and the overall stability is relatively strong.
On the demand side: Coconut shell charcoal has relatively stable demand in the gold extraction and new energy sectors, supporting the firm market prices. In the short term, the market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations. The price of upstream coconut shell carbonization materials remains strong, coupled with tight raw material supply and rising logistics costs in Southeast Asian major producing countries (Indonesia, Philippines), forming bottom support for finished product prices.
Prediction: The trend of tight upstream raw material supply is difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate strongly in the short term.