Market trend
From July 15th to 20th, the domestic PA66 market price remained stable at 18200 yuan/ton. On July 21st, spot prices slightly rose, and the overall trend showed a bottom stabilization and a slight upward trend in the late trading session. From the perspective of the Business Social Average indicator, on July 15th, there was a signal that the 10 day moving average had crossed the 20 day moving average, and the technical trend officially turned from the previous continuous downward trend; The annual price is in the mid to low range of the year, with a significant drop of 6900 yuan from the high point of 25100 yuan/ton this year, and the bottom support is gradually emerging.
influencing factors
Cost side: The repair pace of the upstream adiponitrile supply side has slowed down, and domestic large factories have maintained a tight balance of raw materials during equipment maintenance. The arrival of adiponitrile from external sources is limited, and the raw material quotation has stopped falling and stabilized, stopping the previous downward trend of PA66 cost drag.
The supporting raw material caprolactam continued to increase during the week, and the settlement price of caprolactam by Sinopec increased month on month in the third week of July. Chemical raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone also fluctuated and strengthened, and the raw material cost of the entire nylon industry chain rose at the bottom, forming rigid cost support for PA66. The loss space of manufacturers narrowed, and the willingness to actively reduce prices and ship significantly weakened.
Domestic PA66 polymerization factories are operating at a low level, and some enterprises are operating at low loads due to sustained losses in the early stage. The increase in the circulation of spot goods in the industry is limited, and costs are stabilizing combined with supply contraction, resulting in a loss of sustained downward momentum in spot prices.
Supply side
The industry continues to operate at a low rate, and the pressure on factory inventory has significantly eased after several months of destocking. There are not many available sources of goods in the market; The low-level selling operations of traders in the early stage have basically ended, and the mentality of holding goods to support prices has increased, resulting in the gradual disappearance of low-priced sources of goods. Overlaying the moving average, there is a bullish crossover signal, and the market sentiment is gradually heating up. At the end of the trading session, spot prices showed a slight upward trend.
Demand side
Downstream modification and injection molding enterprises are in the pre stocking cycle of autumn and winter fabrics and auto parts. Compared with the off-season in June, the demand for essential purchases has rebounded, and low-end essential orders have been steadily released, providing a bottom line for spot transactions.
The overall recovery of domestic textile and injection molding terminals is weak, with limited increase in overseas orders. Downstream enterprises maintain a small batch replenishment mode according to demand, and there is insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities. The demand side only moderately repairs, making it difficult to drive prices to soar significantly.
In the first half of the year, a large amount of low-priced imported cotton yarn continued to impact the domestic weaving industry, putting pressure on the profits of downstream nylon fabric processing factories. The acceptance of high priced PA66 raw materials was low, and the significant upward space was limited by terminal demand.
Future forecast

It is expected that the PA66 market will be prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the overall pattern of low-level oscillation and strong tendency will be maintained. The cost side raw material support is stable, and the industry’s low operating and low inventory pattern continues. Coupled with the establishment of a bullish signal on the technical moving average, the price has a bottom rebound foundation; However, the recovery of downstream demand at the terminal is limited, and the market lacks sustained driving force for a sharp rise. The upward trend is moderate, and the upper pressure level refers to the range of 18800-19200 yuan/ton. If the upstream adiponitrile and caprolactam continue to strengthen, coupled with the concentrated release of downstream stock, the price is expected to explore the upper edge of the range; If the terminal procurement continues to be sluggish, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range of 17600-18600 yuan/ton.

The price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly
As of July 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.07% compared to the price of 7733.33 yuan/ton on July 6th, and a significant increase of 10.40% compared to the price of 7850 yuan/ton on July 10th. In mid July, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East resurfaced, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which was transmitted downstream. Industrial naphthalene prices rose sharply, neighboring benzene prices rose sharply, cost support increased, and phthalic anhydride prices rose sharply.
Phthalic anhydride market stops falling and rises
Geopolitical conflicts resurface: the situation in the Middle East is heating up again, Iran is once again closing the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have risen sharply, the cost transmission of the entire aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain from crude oil to xylene to ortho benzene has increased, Sinopec has raised the listing price of ortho xylene, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has risen, industrial naphthalene has risen sharply, and the cost of phthalic anhydride raw materials has risen; DOP、 The unsaturated resin market has rebounded, with downstream centralized replenishment and increased production to around 60%, supported by demand for phthalic anhydride; The international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, greatly boosting market confidence, and the phthalic anhydride market has risen.
Rising cost of phthalic anhydride
After the intensification of the US Iran conflict, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, directly transmitted to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain: as of July 20th, the listed price of ortho xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the price of ortho benzene on July 10th, which was 7800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial naphthalene was 5400 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen sharply, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In addition, the rise in crude oil prices has increased expectations of a rise in raw material prices, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride has been strengthened.
Low level supply of phthalic anhydride
On the supply side, the production of phthalic anhydride enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate of the industry has risen to less than 60%. The overall low opening inventory has been consolidated, and the overall factory and port inventories are low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists
As of July 20th, the DOP quotation was 8717.50 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.30% compared to the DOP price of 7975.84 yuan/ton on July 6th. The off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has ended, and production has slowly increased to 60%. Downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has strengthened, and the rise in downstream DOP product prices has provided some support for phthalic anhydride procurement prices.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that on the cost side, crude oil and ortho xylene have significantly increased, while the rise in raw materials has supported the significant increase in phthalic anhydride; Demand side: The traditional off-season downstream is coming to an end, and downstream manufacturers are slowly increasing their production. Overall, with the significant increase in costs and the rebound in demand, the phthalic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term.

This week, polyethylene first rapidly rose, surged, and then slightly fell back. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7835 yuan/ton on July 13th and 8350 yuan/ton on July 17th, an increase of 6.57%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10000 yuan/ton on July 13th and 10466 yuan/ton on July 17th, an increase of 4.67%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on July 13th was 10512 yuan/ton, and on July 17th it was 10762 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%.
International crude oil continues to strengthen, and petrochemical production costs have risen, providing solid bottom support for polyethylene. The strengthening of costs has led to a continuous increase in the ex factory price of petrochemicals, and traders have followed suit with shipments, directly driving up the rapid rise in prices at the beginning of the week.
Centralized maintenance of domestic petrochemical facilities, tightening of spot supply in the market, continuous destocking of port inventory, and tight spot circulation have boosted market bullish sentiment, prompting traders to actively raise prices.
The downstream film and wire drawing industry is in the traditional off-season of demand, and the continuous increase in raw material prices has increased the cost pressure on factories. The overall production is sluggish, with only a small amount of purchases for basic needs maintained, and high priced goods transactions are scarce. Lack of actual purchasing opportunities from end-users.
Short term polyethylene overall maintains a high and weak oscillation pattern, with limited upward gains.

1、 Price trend
As of July 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4220 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market lacks favorable support, and the mentality of operators is bearish. Market prices are mainly under pressure, downstream purchases are cautious, and small orders for essential needs are the main focus. The cost support for raw material methanol is insufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, in mid July 2026, the domestic DMF market as a whole showed a low-level stalemate and weak consolidation trend. The average price of the mainstream market in East China fluctuated around the range of 4400-4500 yuan/ton, narrowing the decline compared to June but with weak rebound. Under the dual pressure of weak costs and low demand season, the market lacked clear directional guidance, and industry players had a strong wait-and-see attitude. Actual transactions were mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of raw materials: Raw material trends: Recently, the domestic methanol market has been affected by the easing of the geopolitical situation and the expectation of port inventory accumulation, resulting in weak price fluctuations and limited cost support. Although there have been occasional rebounds in liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia prices, they have remained stable overall and have not formed strong support. The operating rate situation: Currently, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the overall operating rate is around 40% (in some periods, it is calculated to be in the range of 40% -45%). Some units in Henan, Guizhou, Shandong and other places are in a negative, short-term or long-term shutdown state due to profit or inventory pressure, and the supply increment has been reduced.
Profit situation: Due to the synchronous decline of the raw material side, the theoretical production profit of DMF factory remains at around 300 yuan/ton with narrow fluctuations. The integrated equipment and leading enterprises still have certain profit margins, and have not yet reached the red line of large-scale losses forcing parking. Therefore, the willingness of the factory to actively raise prices or reduce production on a large scale is not strong, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive price increases.
In terms of demand, the main downstream market is weak: PU pulp (accounting for about 60% of consumption) corresponds to the traditional high temperature off-season in the footwear, clothing, luggage, and artificial leather industries, with insufficient terminal orders and low operating rates of pulp factories. DMF procurement is implemented on a “as needed” basis, with no intention of stockpiling. Other areas have limited support: although the demand for pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates, and electronic grade solvents is relatively stable, the proportion of volume is not enough to offset the gap in pulp decline; Although there has been a surge in exports in the early stages (such as a record high in May), the recent off-season overseas and fluctuations in shipping costs have led to a marginal weakening of the digestion effect of export growth on domestic inventory.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if the raw material methanol continues to weaken due to port storage, the cost center of DMF will shift downwards, and if the industry’s production starts to recover with the restart of previous maintenance facilities (such as some in Henan and Hubei), supply pressure will once again become prominent.

In the first half of July, the overall formaldehyde market showed a fluctuating downward trend. The market trend is dominated by the two-way game of cost and supply and demand, presenting the core characteristics of “raw materials first suppress and then rise, terminal demand is weak in the off-season, and market supply is slightly contracted”. As of July 15th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.84% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: weak at first, then strong, with support shifting from loose to tight
The international market variables have driven the recovery of the methanol market. Affected by the news of the US Iran freight channel on July 14th, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified, and the expectation of tightening methanol supply has risen. The rebound and upward adjustment of methanol spot prices in many domestic places have directly promoted the repair of formaldehyde cost support.
However, the upward space for methanol prices is limited, and the positive support for formaldehyde is difficult to sustain and amplify. It is expected that the domestic methanol import sources will concentrate at the port in mid to late July, and the port inventory will show a cumulative trend. Coupled with the overall weak terminal demand of the entire industry chain, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient, which can only provide a bottom support for the formaldehyde market and cannot promote a significant increase in its price.
Demand side: Continued weakness, driven by rigid demand, cautious procurement
July is the off-season for traditional formaldehyde consumption, and multiple factors are suppressing the recovery of terminal demand. Firstly, the scorching summer heat and periodic floods in the south directly restrict the production of sheet metal and adhesive enterprises in core production areas such as southern China and Guangxi, resulting in low activity in terminal production and a significant decrease in market enthusiasm for purchasing goods; Secondly, the new national standards for the sheet metal industry continue to be implemented and promoted, and the industry is in a transitional period of capacity adjustment and process adaptation. Downstream enterprises generally implement low inventory operation strategies, only purchasing on demand without bulk stocking actions; Thirdly, downstream supporting industries such as adhesives and urea formaldehyde resins have overall low profits and weak cost transmission capabilities, further suppressing the urgent release of formaldehyde. Overall, the demand for formaldehyde terminals in the first half of this month was lower than the same period last year compared to the same period last year. The market was mainly dominated by scattered transactions for essential needs, without the support of a centralized replenishment market.
Supply side: Fine tuning of production, overall controllable support for the market
Affected by the decline in product prices and shrinking industry profits in the early stage, many domestic formaldehyde production enterprises have voluntarily reduced their production, and some small and medium-sized units have temporarily stopped for maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry has slightly fallen, and the effective supply of goods in the market has moderately contracted. The moderate reduction on the supply side effectively offset the negative pressure on the demand side, avoiding the risk of a deep decline in market prices, and providing key support for the stabilization of the market in mid July. At the same time, the overall inventory of the industry remains at a low level, and the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory is relatively small, which continues to highlight the mentality of raising prices.
Market forecast: weak and stable oscillations are the main trend, with limited room for ups and downs

The short-term market will present a volatile pattern of “cost bottoming out and demand peaking”. On the cost side, methanol is expected to operate strongly in the short term due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the increase in import sources, port inventory accumulation, and weak terminal demand will continue to limit its upward potential. The overall cost of formaldehyde is stable but under pressure, with weak upward momentum. On the demand side, the summer off-season effect continues, and the trend of high temperatures, low operating rates of terminal enterprises, and cautious market procurement is difficult to reverse in the short term. Weak demand remains the core factor suppressing market conditions. The overall supply side is controllable, and manufacturers continue to operate at low production and low inventory levels, which provides a certain support for market prices. The overall market situation has limited room for fluctuations.