1、 Price trend
On October 16th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei was 3656 yuan/ton, and on October 8th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei was 3743 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 2.32%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate is weak and declining. The price of raw material sulfur continues to weaken, and there is insufficient cost support. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase on demand, with cautious purchasing intentions and a downward shift in market transaction prices. As of October 16th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3600-3700 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 3700-3750 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 3650-3750 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, sulfur prices have continued to be weak, and the market trading atmosphere has been light. Holders of goods are mainly selling. Downstream procurement is cautious and tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Short term sulfur market prices are expected to be weak.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the recent trend of the ammonium phosphate market is mainly downward. The weakening of raw material prices and cost support, coupled with the approaching end of the autumn fertilizer market, have resulted in poor market demand. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will mainly operate weakly.

This week, the price of raw material propylene remained high, and the price of acrylonitrile continued to rise driven by costs. As of October 16th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is between 11400-11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 250-350 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is 11150-11350 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Loose supply:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its operating load to 60%, resulting in a decrease in supply. According to statistics, this week (October 9-15), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 72.49%, which is -2.81% higher than the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 86600 tons, which is 0.33 million tons higher than the previous cycle. The fundamental changes within the week are limited, and users purchase according to their needs, while enterprise inventory is basically maintained. As of October 14th, the total inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China is about 45000 tons, which is basically the same as last week.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 54.6%, a decrease of -0.6% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 70.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 56.26%, an increase of 0.86% compared to last week.
Cost increase:
During the week, raw material prices significantly increased, and the transmission of industrial chain costs was not smooth, resulting in increased losses for acrylonitrile. According to statistics, as of October 15th, the mainstream closing price of propylene market in Shandong was 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton compared to last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 13357 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 5.18%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -2081 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -483 yuan/ton..
Post production forecast: Currently, cost pressures continue to exist, suppliers continue to raise prices, spot prices remain firm, and there is no expectation of a significant drop in the price of raw material propylene in the short term. This will continue to push its price upward. At the same time, as production losses worsen, it is not ruled out that some units will take production reduction measures in the future, which will also help acrylonitrile prices rise. However, due to the continued mediocre performance of terminal demand, market growth will still be suppressed. We should pay attention to changes in the supply side.

On October 15, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong participated in 14500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.69% compared to October 1 (organic silicon DMC price reference 14400 yuan/ton).
1、 Price market description
In early October, the overall market situation of organic silicon DMC in Shandong region of China showed a narrow upward trend. During the National Day holiday, the market for organic silicon DMC in Shandong did not fluctuate much, and the performance was relatively quiet. The price of organic silicon DMC remained stable and consolidated. Returning after the holiday, major factories in Shandong have slightly increased the shipment price of organic silicon DMC by 100 yuan/ton. The price adjustment by major factories has driven the overall negotiation focus of the market to move upwards. As of October 15th, the reference market price for organic silicon DMC in Shandong, China is around 14500-14800 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental analysis
Supply side: Currently, the overall production of organic silicon DMC manufacturers is not high, and some factories are in the stage of periodic maintenance. The overall output is controllable, and the spot inventory is low. The supply side provides certain support to the market, and organic silicon DMC factories have a strong willingness to raise prices.
In terms of demand, downstream industries such as silicone, sealant, and coatings have ushered in the traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October” for organic silicon DMC. The urgent need for organic silicon DMC has provided certain support. Although downstream industries have not stocked up on a large scale, their stocking sentiment is good and there is no obvious resistance. They have a basic acceptance of small price increases.
In terms of cost: Recently, the market for industrial silicon, a cost side raw material for organic silicon DMC, has been steadily rising, providing some bottoming support for organic silicon DMC.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong organic silicon DMC market is light and mild, with downstream users mainly focusing on first-time purchases. Data analysts predict that in the short term, the prices in the Shandong organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust within a certain range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In the first half of October, the domestic formaldehyde market showed an overall trend of “first strong and then weak, with a high-level decline”. After the National Day holiday, prices continued to rise in September, reaching a recent high. However, due to the decline in raw material methanol and increased resistance from downstream, the market center of gravity began to shift downwards, and the short-term trend has turned into a weak and volatile one. As of October 14th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1902 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.03% from the beginning of the month and 83.37% from the beginning of the year, setting a new high in prices in nearly five years.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: methanol decline weakens support
The current rise in September and October is essentially a cost driven market trend. After entering mid October, the price of methanol showed a significant decline, and the cost support for formaldehyde weakened accordingly, leading to a decrease in quotes from some factories.
Demand side: Strong demand still exists, but high price acceptance is insufficient
Downstream demand for artificial boards, adhesives, and other products still exists, but due to the weak real estate chain, general board orders, and E0/ENF low formaldehyde standards, there is significant resistance from end-users to high priced formaldehyde, and transactions are mainly based on on-demand procurement.
Supply side: Flexible adjustment of the device, with greater supply elasticity
The formaldehyde plant is relatively flexible in starting and stopping, and the operating rate is prone to rebound after profit recovery. Therefore, it is difficult for the supply side to maintain a tight balance in the long term, which constrains the continuous rise in prices.
Market forecast:
The price of raw material methanol has fallen, the cost side support has weakened, the mentality of industry players is cautious, and downstream acceptance of high prices is not high. In the short term, it is expected that the formaldehyde market will mainly fluctuate weakly at a high level, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity, making it difficult to fall deeply and even more difficult to rise sharply, operating within a range.

After the holiday, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a strong upward trend. As of October 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane was 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, propylene has risen strongly, with strong cost support. This week, the price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise to around 9977 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 2.78%. Liquid chlorine also rose to 250 yuan/ton, providing strong support for epoxy propane on the cost side. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of propylene was 9977.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% compared to the beginning of this month (9707.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Production is steadily increasing, but mid month maintenance is expected to cause disturbances. The overall supply is mainly stable. In mid to late October, some units are expected to undergo maintenance, and the new production capacity project is scheduled to start in October, forming a game between supply increase and maintenance reduction.
On the demand side: follow up on urgent needs is the main focus, and the differentiation pattern continues. The landing of the 300000 ton/year expansion project of the polyether sector’s Innoway has brought about an increase in demand, but the inventory and maintenance arrangements of Wudi Xinyue, Binhua Phase I, and others have resulted in both increased and decreased consumption; The planned shutdown and maintenance of the Shandong Wells plant in the propylene glycol sector will result in a slight decrease in downstream chemical demand in October. Downstream resistance to high priced raw materials has become apparent, with new order follow-up mainly focused on small orders for essential needs and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices.
Comprehensive forecast: In the short term, with the high operation of propylene and the lack of supply side inventory pressure, there is still some upward space for the price of epoxy propane. But in the medium term, with the restoration of maintenance equipment and the gradual realization of new production capacity, the pressure on the supply side tends to increase, while the demand peak season is insufficient and downstream resistance to high prices is becoming stronger, limiting the further upward space of prices. It is expected that prices in Shandong region will fluctuate within the range of 9500-11300 yuan/ton in October. More attention should be paid to the pace of device restart and volume increase, as well as changes in downstream stocking intentions.