Market Review
From October 28th to November 2nd, the spot price of PA6 remained stable at 15200 yuan/ton. On November 3rd, the price fell back to 15033.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.10%. In terms of cycle position, the early stages of this week remained at high levels, but on November 3rd, the 10 day level fell back to a low level. Warning signals showed that the short-term moving average had crossed below, and the upward momentum in the early stage had subsided. The price shifted from a high level sideways to a slight correction.
Cost side
The upstream caprolactam disk is running weakly, and the support strength at the raw material end is loose, which weakens the bottom support effect of cost on PA6. The supply side of caprolactam is relatively abundant, lacking sustained upward momentum, making it difficult to support the maintenance of high slice prices, which brings downward pressure to PA6.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the mainstream PA6 factories in China maintain a high level of operating load, with sufficient supply of spot goods, and the pressure of market circulation inventory is gradually emerging. On the demand side, downstream industries such as modification, spinning, and injection molding have weak order follow-up, and terminal procurement is mainly based on immediate procurement of essential needs. The willingness to stock up at high levels is cautious, and there is no centralized replenishment action. The demand is difficult to undertake high-level sources of goods, and the upward resistance is relatively high. Overall, there is a pattern of sufficient supply and insufficient demand follow-up, with high-level pressure leading to a pullback.
Short term forecast for the future market
In the short term, the raw material caprolactam is relatively weak, coupled with the lack of significant recovery in downstream demand, PA6 may mainly fluctuate weakly, and there is further room for price correction, with heavy upward pressure.

After the domestic 98% industrial grade concentrated sulfuric acid began its downward trend in August, the downward trend continued in October. In terms of market conditions, the domestic price dropped by nearly 25.88% from around 2092 yuan/ton in early August to October 30th. The decline accelerated in mid to late October, and the market center continued to shift downwards. The pressure on acid companies to ship remained high, and the overall market was filled with bearish sentiment.
This round of continuous decline, with the core contradiction concentrated on the weak demand side, coupled with relatively abundant supply, resulting in an imbalanced supply-demand pattern. The downstream of sulfuric acid is mainly concentrated in the fields of phosphate fertilizer, titanium dioxide, metallurgical acid washing, etc. Entering October, the phosphate fertilizer industry has not yet entered the stage of large-scale winter storage, and manufacturers are holding onto essential procurement with low enthusiasm for stocking up; Although there have been reports of price increases in the titanium dioxide industry, terminal acceptance is limited, and the increase in production is not significant, resulting in insufficient incremental consumption of sulfuric acid raw materials; Other fine chemical and metal pickling industries have flat orders and mainly rely on on-demand procurement, with few large-scale hoarding operations. The overall downstream procurement efforts are insufficient, making it difficult to support acid prices.
On the supply side, domestic sulfuric acid sources are divided into sulfur based sulfuric acid production, smelting based sulfuric acid production, and pyrite based sulfuric acid production. Although some regional facilities undergo periodic maintenance, which to some extent compresses supply, the production of smelting by-product acid continues to stabilize, and the overall social inventory continues to accumulate. In order to reduce inventory, acid factories continuously lower their prices and offer discounts to sell goods, leading to an increase in inter regional bidding sales and further lowering the market transaction center. The price of sulfur on the cost side has fluctuated and weakened, and the cost support for acid production has weakened, which has also dispelled the willingness of manufacturers to raise prices. Under the dominance of negative supply and demand, prices have declined accordingly.
At the market mentality level, the continuous decline in the market has strengthened the downstream wait-and-see sentiment. Purchasing parties generally buy when prices rise and do not buy when prices fall, adopting a strategy of buying as needed to avoid the risk of price decline. There are few intermediaries hoarding goods in the circulation process, and the market trading atmosphere is quiet, forming a negative cycle of “price drop, less procurement, and further price reduction”.
For the future, it is difficult to reverse the weak pattern of the sulfuric acid market in the short term. In the short term, the start-up pace of downstream phosphorus fertilizer winter storage is relatively slow, and the demand increment brought by winter storage is limited; The current situation of high inventory levels will continue, and acid enterprises have a heavy task of destocking. It is expected that prices will mainly fluctuate at a low level and operate slightly weakly, with insufficient rebound momentum. Only when downstream winter storage is concentrated, acid plants undergo centralized maintenance leading to significant supply contraction, and inventory continues to decline, can the market have a chance to stop falling. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to continuously track the prices of sulfur raw materials, maintenance plans for smelting equipment, and the progress of winter storage of phosphate fertilizers.
Overall, the fundamental situation of oversupply in the current sulfuric acid market has not substantially improved. The market is likely to remain under pressure in November, and a sharp rise is unlikely to occur. It is recommended for upstream and downstream to purchase according to demand, and acid companies to reasonably control production load and avoid operational risks caused by continuous price declines.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 373590 yuan/ton on October 30th and 385370 yuan/ton as of October 26th, a decrease of 3.06%.
Presenting a significant ‘roller coaster’ market trend. In the first half of the week, it steadily rose and reached its weekly high on October 28th. However, the bulls were unable to hold their ground, and the market took a sharp downturn on Thursday and Friday. On October 30th, there was a cliff like decline, with a sharp weekly amplitude and a single day drop of about 3.48%.
Fundamental analysis:
On the supply side, the market’s expectation for the recovery of overseas tin ore supply (such as the Wa State in Myanmar and other major producing areas) has always been a hanging “sword of Damocles”, and the support on the raw material side is gradually loosening.
On the demand side: Downstream electronics and solder companies generally have a “fear of high prices” attitude towards high priced tin ingots, mainly focusing on rigid procurement, making it difficult to provide sustained demand growth. In a pattern of strong supply and weak demand or weak supply and demand, prices are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiment or financial disturbances.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, the current tin price technology is breaking through, and the fundamentals lack substantial bullish drivers. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a weak and volatile bottoming trend next week. Investors are advised to pay attention to the effectiveness of the support level of 370000 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises can replenish their inventory as needed at low prices.

This week (10.23-10.29), the market for butadiene rubber rose. Data shows that as of October 29th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 16970 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22% from last Friday’s 16440 yuan/ton. During the week, the ex factory prices of CPC Northeast Daqing and Jinzhou were raised by 300 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets of Daqing, Sichuan, and Dushanzi were reported at 16850-17100 yuan/ton.
During the week, the raw material butadiene rebounded significantly. As of October 29th, the price of butadiene was 14200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.71% from last Friday’s 13433 yuan/ton. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have pushed up the crude oil hub, with naphtha following suit and strong reluctance among spot traders to sell. Based on the current price of butadiene, butadiene rubber only makes a small profit, and the factory has a strong willingness to raise prices.
The domestic production rate of butadiene rubber remains at a relatively low level of around 6.3%, and the market supply is relatively tight, which provides some support for butadiene rubber.
Recently, the downstream tire industry has gradually resumed production, with semi steel tire production rates around 6.50% and all steel tire production rates around 5.90%, showing a month on month rebound but a year-on-year decline. Overall, on-demand procurement has limited acceptance of high priced Shunding, which has a certain negative impact on the Shunding rubber market.
Market forecast:
The current price of butadiene rubber is firmly above the moving averages of each cycle, and the 5/10/20 daily moving averages are in a long position. After a slight increase in short-term prices, the support of the moving average remains, and the bullish structure is intact. Predict short-term high-level fluctuations and rely on the support of the moving average to operate relatively strongly. If it falls below the 5-day moving average, the risk of a pullback will increase.

From a fundamental perspective, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with the price center following the fluctuations of crude oil and butadiene. Cost support and low inventory form the bottom, but weak year-on-year demand for tires and accumulated inventory from traders will suppress upward potential. If crude oil falls back or there is a new volume of butadiene, there is a risk of price correction; On the contrary, if geopolitical risks continue, they are prone to surge.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in October
As of October 28th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.12% compared to the price of 8466.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, the isobutyraldehyde market fell from a high level and turned from strong to weak. In October, the isobutyraldehyde market was initially sideways at a high level, but fell back under pressure in the middle and late stages, turning from strong to weak, mainly dragging down the weakness of downstream neopentyl glycol from the main force; The supply side has device maintenance support, but the demand side lacks follow-up on buying orders, resulting in increased bargaining space for actual orders.
Cost side: limited support for propylene oscillation consolidation raw materials
On October 28th, the propylene price was 10927.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 12.57% compared to the propylene price of 9707.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, propylene fluctuated within a range without a unilateral surge, and there was no strong upward momentum on the cost side; At the same time, there was no deep drop, which formed a certain bottom support for isobutyraldehyde. Cost is not the main trend of this month’s market, and supply and demand (neopentyl glycol) are the main support for isobutyraldehyde’s rise and fall.
Demand side: New pentanediol drags down the market
The largest downstream consumption is neopentyl glycol. In October, the neopentyl glycol market continued to weaken, and major factories such as Wanhua lowered their quotations for bulk water for multiple rounds. The demand for polyester and powder coatings downstream of neopentyl glycol was flat, with average orders. The profit of neopentyl glycol factories was compressed, and they actively reduced the cost of raw material procurement, lowered prices, and purchased isobutyraldehyde according to demand. The market is’ afraid of heights+wait-and-see ‘, no longer chasing after price increases, buying only low-priced goods, and high priced transactions are stagnant.
Supply side: Partial maintenance, but expected incremental control
Isobutyraldehyde is a by-product of the co production of butanol and octanol, with production following the start of butanol and octanol production. There is little independent expansion, high industry concentration, and no large-scale shutdown maintenance; Part of the equipment is parked for maintenance, reducing some of the circulating goods and providing a bottom line for prices; In mid to late October, Wanhua Penglai isobutyraldehyde plant was successfully put into operation, with new production capacity added and maintenance equipment restarted, resulting in slow accumulation of shipping pressure. The expectation of loose supply directly suppressed the buying enthusiasm, and the bearish sentiment in the market significantly increased.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the main contradiction between supply and demand and cost in the future isobutyraldehyde market has not yet shown a reversal signal, and bearish factors still dominate. The incremental impact of Wanhua Penglai’s new production capacity, the expected restart of the Dawn device, and the supply side’s suppression of prices are likely to continue. On the demand side, it is difficult to see strong replenishment momentum for neopentyl glycol in the short term. The market for isobutyraldehyde is mainly weak, and there is still room for manufacturers to lower their quotes. Negotiations for actual orders continue to yield discounts. However, as propylene prices remain high, the cost side will continue to provide bottom support, and factories’ willingness to further significantly lower prices will be restrained. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future, but the downward trend may ease and the probability of a deep decline is limited.