1、 Price trend
As of September 23rd, the price of high-performance power type lithium iron phosphate is 52166 yuan/ton, with current transaction prices ranging from 52200 to 55500 yuan/ton for power type lithium iron phosphate and 51800 to 53000 yuan/ton for energy storage type lithium iron phosphate; The benchmark price fell from 56700 yuan/ton in early September to 52000 yuan/ton, with two consecutive weekly declines. Looking at the longer period, the average price of power type in the third quarter of 2025 was only 35771 yuan/ton and energy storage type was 29000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter of 2026, it surged to 58178 yuan/ton for power type and 57016 yuan/ton for energy storage type, with increases of 63% and 97% respectively; The highest point of the year was in June, with the power type reaching 67000 yuan/ton at one point.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of cost, the cost of lithium iron phosphate is composed of lithium carbonate (60% -65%) and iron phosphate processing fees (30% -35%). For every 10000 yuan/ton increase in lithium carbonate, the cost of the positive electrode increases by about 2300-2500 yuan/ton. Under the pricing model of “raw material cost+fixed processing fee”, long-term agreements negotiate on a monthly basis, and there is a delay in the daily rise and fall of lithium prices to the finished product end. Therefore, there has been a differentiation in recent times, with lithium carbonate rebounding by 3.8% in a single day and lithium iron quotations weakening in the opposite direction.
Lithium salt end: On September 22, battery grade lithium carbonate was in stock at 129800 to 139000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 134300 yuan/ton. Futures main LC2701 closed at 134500 yuan/ton, up 2.61%, and continued to decline before stopping. In mid May, it reached a high of 209800 yuan/ton and fell to a low of 128080 yuan/ton on September 11, with a pullback of more than 40%. Since September, spot prices have fallen by more than 20%.
In terms of demand: Power end: In August 2026, domestic power batteries will be installed at 79.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, including 67.6 GWh of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 85.6%, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%; From January to August, a total of 489.1 GWh of vehicles were loaded, with 402.7 GWh of lithium iron, accounting for 82.3%, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.
The market share trend is very stable: 74.4% in 2024 → 81.2% in 2025 → 82.3% from January to August 2026. There has been no sustained reverse decline in any quarter for the past three years. The 11.0GWh of Sanyuan, owned by Li Ning De Times, accounts for 66.8% and has retreated to long range, high-end models, and low-temperature scenarios.
The energy storage end is the real engine: In August, the sales volume of energy storage batteries was 76.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 114.3% and a month on month increase of 36.0%, accounting for 34.2% of the total sales volume. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was 450.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, with a growth rate more than twice that of power batteries (38.7%). The operating rate of energy storage batteries in August was 87.36%, a month on month increase of 1.28 percentage points. Large battery cells with 500Ah capacity were fully mass-produced (Ningde Times 587Ah, Yiwei 628Ah, Guoxuan 588Ah), all centered around the iron lithium system, leaving almost no room for ternary space.

The lithium hexafluorophosphate market maintained a high and stable operation in September. As of September 22nd, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) is 115500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
2、 Raw material end: The core raw materials for lithium hexafluorophosphate are lithium carbonate, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, phosphorus pentachloride, and lithium fluoride. In the first half of the year, the average purchase price of major raw materials increased comprehensively, with lithium carbonate rising by 12%, lithium fluoride rising by 16%, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride rising by 18%, and phosphorus pentachloride rising by 19%. Although the spot price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly in September and the cost center shifted downwards, the prices of lithium fluoride and anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remained high, providing strong cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of September 22, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 134000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the beginning of this month (156000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises has basically reached full capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a high level of over 90%, and the global production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to reach 372000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
4、 Demand side: Downstream demand is strong, and energy storage has become the core growth engine. Driven by the trend of high-end development, the increase in single vehicle charging capacity supports the sustained growth of installed capacity for power batteries; Energy storage batteries are driven by new electricity consumption scenarios such as AI data centers, and their growth rate continues to be higher than that of power batteries, becoming the core incremental source of electrolyte demand. Downstream electrolyte companies have full orders and production schedules continue to increase month on month, providing strong support for the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate.
5、 Market forecast: The short-term tight supply-demand balance pattern continues, and with the deepening of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season, it is expected that prices will maintain a strong operation; If the newly added production capacity in the fourth quarter is released as scheduled, the increase may be suppressed to a certain extent, and the overall trend is expected to show the characteristics of “tight supply and demand, and rational price operation”.

Since September, the Shunding rubber market has surged in the early stage and fluctuated at mid to high levels. As of September 20th, the price of Shunding rubber in the East China region was 15700 yuan/ton, up 3.43% from 15180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the high point during the cycle was 16210 yuan/ton. The cost and supply side provide strong support for butadiene rubber, while weak downstream demand to some extent suppresses the growth of butadiene rubber.
Butadiene first rose and then fell in September, with prices rising at the beginning of the month due to maintenance of cracking units and crude oil; The gradual resumption of mid month maintenance equipment and the increase in port inventory have led to a correction in butadiene prices. The data shows that in mid September, the inventory of butadiene in East China ports was 23700 tons, an increase of 4700 tons compared to the previous month. As of September 20th, the price of butadiene was 13833 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.75 yuan/ton from 13333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 6.74% from the high point of 14833 yuan/ton during the cycle.
In terms of supply, since September, facilities such as Qilu and Taixiang have been shut down for maintenance, coupled with the loss reduction of private factories, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of Gaoshun Shunding in China to 5.90% and a decline in weekly production. Social inventory continues to decrease, and low inventory forms a bottom support for rubber prices.
Downstream tire production has declined, resulting in insufficient support for butadiene rubber. As of September 11th, the domestic semi steel tire production rate was 65.53%; The operating rate of all steel tires is 63.53%. The inventory turnover of semi-finished steel tires is 44.7 days, while that of all steel tires is 36.4 days. The demand for end commercial and passenger vehicles is relatively weak. Although tire companies have issued price increase letters, with a 2% -5% increase, the high prices of raw materials have suppressed profits, and factories only maintain essential purchases. There is insufficient willingness to proactively replenish inventory, and the peak season delivery falls short of expectations.
Market forecast:
The spot price and moving average of butadiene rubber show that in the early stage, the spot price of butadiene rubber reversed and rose from late June, and the price continued to rise along the moving average system, forming a long position. After reaching above 16000 in September, the price fell below the 5-day short-term moving average, and the short-term upward trend slowed down. The 10/20 day moving average remains upward, and medium-term support is still in place. Short term or volatile pullback, testing the support of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages; If the support is held, the bullish pattern will continue; If the moving average falls below, the current rebound market will weaken.
Overall, in the short term, Shunding will maintain a high level and fluctuate widely. Low inventory and maintenance equipment continue to support bottom prices; However, there is an expectation of restart in the butadiene plant, which weakens cost support and suppresses upward space due to downstream high price resistance. If the maintenance continues or there is a geopolitical disturbance in crude oil, there is a chance for the price to rebound.

This week, the domestic PVC market’s spot and futures prices have weakened synchronously, with prices fluctuating and falling. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall transactions are relatively weak. The emotional speculation caused by the previous real estate policy has gradually subsided, returning to the fundamental game. Supply has slightly rebounded, and demand has rebounded seasonally, but the strength is insufficient. The industry is still in a loss making state, and costs have formed a bottom support for prices. The SG-5 weekly decline of East China calcium carbide method was as high as 5.1%.
1、 Price Trends
Spot (SG-5 carbide method)
The mainstream of cash withdrawal in East China: 4780-4860 yuan/ton; The market in Linyi, Shandong Province has cumulatively lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton this week, and slightly loosened to 4700-4750 yuan/ton over the weekend.
Ethylene based PVC: 5350-5500 yuan/ton, affected by the cost of ethylene raw materials, the price is relatively resistant to decline.
Futures market
The main PVC contract of Dashang Exchange continued to decline within the week, and the rebound market driven by previous policies fell back. The market followed the weakness of spot prices, and the basis was slightly repaired. The market’s bullish confidence fell, and short-term fluctuations were mainly weak.
2、 Trend analysis
Supply side: The maintenance department has resumed work, and the operating rate has slightly increased
This week, some of the early maintenance equipment resumed production, and the manufacturer’s load generally increased. There were not many new maintenance additions, and the operating rate increased to nearly 70%, still in a relatively low position compared to the same period in recent years.
However, currently, companies using the calcium carbide method and ethylene method generally suffer losses, especially those using the ethylene method which suffer from significant losses. These losses suppress the willingness of companies to actively increase production, resulting in limited recovery of production and difficulty in maintaining high prices. If the price continues to decline in the later stage, it is not ruled out that some companies may reduce production and lower prices again to protect prices.
Demand side: Insufficient quality during the peak season of Golden September, making it difficult to sustain high levels
In terms of downstream demand, plastic product companies have seen a slight increase in production, with overall downstream production rising to over 40%, a slight improvement compared to the previous peak season, but significantly lower than the level of previous years. Real estate remains the core drag, with limited transmission of terminal real estate completion. There has been no significant increase in new orders for pipe and profile enterprises, and most of them are mainly purchased on demand and taken as needed, resulting in insufficient procurement and stockpiling. Moreover, the absolute value of overall inventory is still high, the pace of destocking is slow, and inventory pressure has not substantially eased.
Export: Overseas shipping costs have risen, and external quotes have strengthened, but actual overseas buying follow-up is limited, and export growth is limited, making it difficult to hedge domestic pressure.
Cost end
Calcium carbide: Coal and blue carbon prices remain high, with strong cost support for calcium carbide. However, PVC prices are below the cost line, and the calcium carbide method continues to suffer losses, becoming a hard support below spot prices and limiting the potential for significant deep declines. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, although the price of calcium carbide is at a high level, there is a downward trend, with a slight decrease of 0.74% this week.
Ethylene process: International crude oil is fluctuating at a high level, and the cost of ethylene raw materials is high. The losses of ethylene process enterprises are further amplified, which suppresses the operating rate of ethylene process.
3、 Future prospects
Analysts believe that PVC will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term: there are still many negative factors in the market, supply is expected to recover, operating rates may continue to rise, and terminal demand is weak, with limited improvement in real estate terminal demand. Downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing, high inventory needs to be digested, and weak futures sentiment is suppressing spot prices. So, recently PVC prices have been mainly weak.

As of September 16, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1134 yuan or 17.62% compared to September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price trend data
In early September, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a significant upward trend. During this period, the n-butanol market price in Shandong continued to approach high levels, with a cumulative increase of about 1000-1200 yuan/ton. As of September 16th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong was around 8800-9100 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: In early September, the market price of propylene at the raw material end of n-butanol fluctuated and rose, providing overall cost support for n-butanol. The n-butanol market rose with the support of raw materials.
In terms of supply and demand: As we enter September, the overall inventory of Shandong n-butanol production plants is relatively low, and the overall supply on site is limited. The supply pressure is controllable. At the beginning of the month, the downstream receiving sentiment of n-butanol was clear, and the demand transmission improved. With the rise of the market, downstream resistance to high prices gradually emerged. Although the overall market demand has weakened compared to the previous period, the overall supply and demand transmission is still relatively smooth.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild and light, and inquiries on the market are cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the n-butanol market price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Specific attention needs to be paid to the downstream industry’s operating conditions and changes in supply and demand factors.