In November, the supply and demand pattern of liquid ammonia transformed, and the price surged and fell back

In November, the domestic ammonia market fluctuated, with the Shandong region rising and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 30th, the monthly increase in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.43%, but the amplitude exceeded 10%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 3800-4000 yuan/ton.


From a supply side perspective, entering November, the market experienced a transition from tight to loose supply. In the first half of the month, the production of equipment decreased and the supply tightened, leading to an increase. Specifically, temporary failures frequently occur in equipment in Shandong region, and multiple sets of equipment are undergoing centralized maintenance. Due to environmental inspections in the Shanxi region, manufacturers have restricted production, increasing the pressure of tight supply in the entire northern region. In the second half of the month, with the resumption of production of some devices, the supply increased, downstream procurement decreased, and combined with the increase in ammonia emissions from large factories. Supply pressure continues to rise, manufacturers lower prices to ship, and the market follows suit.


On the demand side, downstream demand for liquid ammonia is stable, agricultural demand is growing moderately, and industrial demand is lagging behind. The main downstream products urea, ammonium chloride, and diammonium phosphate have all seen good growth rates. The maximum increase exceeds 4%. The overall demand is showing a moderate growth trend.


On the cost side, from an upstream perspective, coal prices have fluctuated and natural gas prices have risen significantly. While the cost side has provided support, it has also put cost pressure on ammonia enterprises, mainly because the increase in liquid ammonia has not kept up with the increase in natural gas prices.


Future Market Forecast:


According to analysts from Business Society, from a supply side perspective, manufacturers still have plans to resume production of their equipment in the later stage, and their inventory is at a medium to high level, entering the stage of destocking in the later stage. Supply pressure is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The demand side is intertwined, with agricultural demand performing well, but industrial demand is progressing slowly, and overall demand is not increasing significantly. Taking all factors into consideration, the more liquid ammonia there is in the near future, the more regions will follow suit and the market will have some room for decline.

The PET market was narrowly weakening in November

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of November 29th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7000 yuan/ton. The overall PET market price in November showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 1.96%. The overall market performance in November was mainly narrow and weak. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7000 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.


In November, the domestic PET price remained stable with a weak trend. At the beginning of November, the price was 7140 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the same period last month. The overall price in November was weak and downward, with a low focus on negotiations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7000 yuan/ton, and downstream restocking is mainly based on demand. The negotiation atmosphere is average, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders. Upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main focus.


Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On November 28, the rubber and plastic index was 669 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.70% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).


PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily, with a weak trend in the short term. Currently, the mainstream price of PET is around 7000 yuan/ton.

The propane market fluctuated and rose in November

The domestic propane market fluctuated and rose in November. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong’s market was 5490 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 5688 yuan/ton on November 28th, with a monthly increase of 3.6%, an increase of 0.28% compared to the same period last year.


As of November 28th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ November 28th

East China region/ 5400-5550 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5600-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5650 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5500-5700 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic propane market first rose and then fell, with an overall increase. In early November, the on-site inventory of Shandong propane market was low, and the sales were smooth. With a sudden drop in temperature, downstream markets actively entered the market, while upstream prices rose. With the rise of propane prices to a high level, downstream resistance is evident, and there is a rebound in the increase. Entering mid November, the northern region experienced a surge in civilian demand due to the winter season, which steadily increased and supported the propane market. At the same time, chemical demand remains at a normal level, market supply and demand remain at a good level, downstream actively enters the market, and market prices remain stable. In late November, propane prices began to slightly decline, with downstream investors seeking dips and upstream investors adjusting flexibly, with a slight downward adjustment being the main focus.


Saudi Aramco announced its CP in November 2023, with propane at $610 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane costs $620 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton compared to the previous month.


Overall, with the upcoming release of the CP in December, there will be a concentration of imported propane arriving at the port in the future. Due to weak demand and weak price increases, we will closely monitor the dynamics of the external market. It is expected that the propane market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

The polyacrylamide market is weak this week

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China this week was mainly weak. On the 27th, the market reported around 13340 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, it reported around 13400 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.45%. The price of raw material acrylonitrile has risen, while the price of acrylic acid has remained stable overall. The cost of polyacrylamide has also increased overall. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly weak and consolidating.


Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has risen this week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 10175 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self pickup of acrylonitrile in the market is between 10000 to 10300 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials have fluctuated slightly, and the support of costs for acrylonitrile has weakened slightly; The main downstream ABS production is basically stable; The production of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and there is basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market is in urgent need of inquiry support.


Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has fluctuated and stabilized in a narrow range this week. As of November 27th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region is 6125 yuan/ton. At present, cost pressure still exists, and the supply side has some support for the market. However, downstream purchases are only in demand, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term.


Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices have continued to rise this week. At present, the domestic cold air is coming, and the demand for downstream replenishment is increasing. Under the policy of adding upper limit gas supply, the market supply is shrinking, driving the continuous rise of liquid prices. In terms of sea and gas, prices at some receiving stations have slightly increased. It is expected that the domestic liquefied natural gas prices will be strong in the short term.


Market forecast: This week, raw material prices will slightly increase, fuel prices will rise, and the overall cost of polyacrylamide will rise. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. The weak trend of polyacrylamide market is mainly consolidation. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

Poor terminal demand and declining hydrogen peroxide market

According to monitoring data from Business Society, starting from November, bearish factors dominated the market, resulting in poor terminal demand and a significant decline in the market. On November 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1150 yuan/ton. On November 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 21.74%.


Poor terminal demand, continuous decline in hydrogen peroxide market


Since November, the stock market in the terminal paper and printing industries has ended, with a decline in hydrogen peroxide orders and average market transactions. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have lowered their factory prices one after another, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The market average price has dropped to 950 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 200-300 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 18%. As the end of the month approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline, with the average market price dropping to 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 21%.


Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that terminal demand is flat, and the market for hydrogen peroxide will continue to decline in the future.