On June 10th, the supply side remained tight, and the market price center remained firm, with sporadic quotes in the spot market. The mainstream market spot price in East China closed at 7160 yuan/ton,+40 yuan/ton; The South China market closed at 7300 yuan/ton,+50 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $874/ton,+6 $/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Unit: The 800000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit in Hainan will start shutdown and maintenance over the weekend, and is expected to continue until November. The 750000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be scheduled for maintenance and shutdown starting from yesterday, with an expected shutdown time of about 10 days. A 280000 ton/year ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Sinopec will be shut down and maintained last weekend; Individual facilities in Iran have restarted, while three sets of facilities in Taiwan and Malaysia have restarted, releasing signals for the early shutdown of facilities due to raw materials.
Supply: Short term low load operation of domestic facilities, no substantial progress in ocean freight sources, and overall supply is still relatively low. As of June 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 12600 tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. This week (June 9-15), there are no plans for Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol to arrive at the port. Downstream orders are lukewarm, with many urgent purchases, and the main ports in East China maintain the expectation of destocking.
Demand: Downstream polyester and unsaturated resin are operating at low load. According to statistics, as of June 4th, the average operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin factories is 32%, which is the same as the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from June 5th to June 7th, a total of 637 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of 212 tons. On June 9th, the total shipment volume from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 367 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous day, and the performance of port pickup further contracted.
Market outlook: Currently, the supply and demand of the diethylene glycol market are weak, with downstream demand dominating prices, especially the poor performance of north-south demand. Short term prices are still strong spot prices with weak expectations, and are subject to wide fluctuations due to emotions. Forward prices will further expand, with a focus on the follow-up of downstream demand, the substantial opening of the Strait of Hormuz in ceasefire negotiations, the efficiency of crude oil and imported cargo output, and the recovery level after the destruction of foreign facilities.

Recently, lithium carbonate has experienced a sharp decline. As of June 9th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 162000 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 18% from the previous high of 199000 yuan/ton (May 12th). The comprehensive disintegration of the positive logic on the supply side, the concentrated release of inventory pressure, and multiple factors jointly promote the reversal of market trends.
Sudden changes in inventory data are the core logic that triggers price declines
Previously, the market generally used “low inventory and tight supply” as the bullish core logic, but recently the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has continued to soar, reaching 56000 tons on June 3, equivalent to half a month’s total domestic production. Affected by the fact that spot prices are lower than futures prices, holders of goods have registered spot goods as warehouse receipt arbitrage. At the same time, the market reaction shows that the quality of warehouse receipts is poor, unable to meet production needs, weak purchasing intentions, and further accumulation of warehouse receipts, forming a vicious cycle of “price decline – warehouse receipt increase – price further decline”.
Overseas lithium mine supply resumes, reversing market concerns about raw material shortages
In February of this year, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of lithium concentrate exports, which caused market panic and led to a surge in lithium prices. However, since mid May, locally approved Chinese enterprises have been shipping lithium mines one after another, and the actual supply reduction is much lower than market expectations. Australia is also accelerating the release of production capacity. Bald Hill lithium mine under Mineral Resources announced the resumption of production, and spodumene concentrate can be produced in July, with a much faster resumption rate than previously predicted by institutions. Stimulated by high prices, multiple lithium mines around the world have accelerated their resumption of production. The market’s previous panic about lithium mine supply cuts has completely dissipated, and the tight supply premium has quickly fallen back.
Energy storage demand dividend supports the bottom of lithium prices
The new energy vehicle market presents a pattern of “quantity reduction, unit consumption increase”. In May, the estimated wholesale of new energy vehicles by passenger car manufacturers nationwide reached 1.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month on month increase of 11%, barely maintaining a slight increase in the total installed capacity of power batteries. The industry is no longer able to achieve explosive growth in lithium demand solely based on sales volume. As the largest incremental demand for energy storage, it is the core catalyst for the early recovery of lithium carbonate. At present, the top battery companies are basically in full production, and some companies’ orders have been scheduled until early next year. Both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of battery cell production scheduling, there is a strong demand for energy storage projects, which are currently not sensitive to material prices and provide bottom support.
Overall, the current decline in lithium carbonate is the result of a synchronous shift in supply and inventory logic. However, the strong demand for new energy vehicles and explosive growth in energy storage demand may limit the downward space for lithium prices. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the speed of new supply landing in the third quarter and the sustained ability of energy storage demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

Recently, the overall domestic asphalt market has shown a strong upward trend, driven by refinery production cuts and maintenance, as well as a significant reduction in supply. The market supply has fallen to a new low, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand, which has driven the asphalt market prices to continue to rise. The overall situation is characterized by tight supply and firm prices.
Recently, the domestic asphalt market has shown a trend of low supply and high prices, with market supply once again breaking historical lows, and spot and futures prices continuing to rise. Data shows that the current comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is only 13.6%, hitting a historical low. The weekly production has decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the overall available spot resources are very scarce.
The core reason for the significant contraction in supply is the concentrated maintenance of multiple refineries, coupled with the conversion of some units to residual oil, and the loss of processing profits and low production willingness of refineries. In June, the production schedule of local refineries decreased significantly year-on-year and month on month. The demand side is showing a trend of differentiation, with better weather in the north, steady progress in infrastructure and road construction, and a rebound in downstream essential procurement, providing strong support for prices.
At present, the imbalance between supply and demand in the market continues. Although the rainy season in the south has to some extent suppressed terminal construction, the overall demand resilience is still acceptable. In the short term, the low-level supply pattern of asphalt is difficult to improve quickly, and the shortage of supply will continue. The market price is expected to remain high and fluctuate.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the domestic potassium chloride (imported) market has ended its previous downward trend and shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 5th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from 3566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month (June 1st). Although the end of spring plowing demand has led to a low willingness to prepare agricultural fertilizers, the low inventory at ports and the finalization of international contract prices have provided strong bottom support for the domestic market.
2、 Technical analysis of spot market in Shengyi Society
Based on the average deviation indicator and price position analysis tool provided by Business Society’s spot trading platform, the following is an interpretation of this week’s trend:
1. Change in Mean Deviation:
From the recent 5-day trend chart, it can be seen more clearly that although the 20 day moving average (blue line) is still showing a slow downward trend, the solid line representing short-term prices and the 10 day moving average (red line) have shown significant rebound, indicating that short-term buying power is accumulating and the downward trend is being contained.
2. Location analysis:
According to the table data, although it is at a high level in the short term, it is still at a “medium” and “low” level at the “60 day level” and “90 day level”. This means that from a longer-term perspective, the current price has not deviated from the reasonable range and there is still room for repair. However, it also suggests that there may be pressure to lock up the market in the early stage.
3、 Analysis of Fundamental Driving Factors
The supporting logic of the market this week mainly stems from structural tension on the supply side:
1. Demand side: With the basic end of spring plowing and fertilizer use, the agricultural market demand has entered a window period. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is less than 40%, and industrial procurement is limited to small orders for essential needs, resulting in a sluggish overall trading atmosphere and limiting the significant increase in prices.
2. Supply side: Port inventory has dropped to a low level, and the replenishment of new goods is slow, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market and a strong willingness of holders to raise prices. The annual potassium fertilizer contract price in India has been finalized, establishing an upward shift in the international potassium fertilizer pricing benchmark. This news directly boosted market confidence, suppressed the downward space of domestic prices, and solidified the bottom of prices.
4、 Future forecast
Overall, this week’s potassium chloride (import) market has shown characteristics of “high-level consolidation and slight rebound” under the game of supply support and weak demand: the price has remained stable at the 3580 yuan/ton mark, the moving average system has stabilized, and it is difficult to break through the pressure level of 3600 yuan/ton in the short term; In the medium to long term, the downward space is limited due to low port inventory and international price support.
Short term forecast: With the establishment of a signal for the moving average to cross, prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. However, due to the lack of agricultural demand and insufficient driving force for a significant increase, it is expected to dominate with a narrow range of fluctuations.

This week, the domestic sulfur market has shown a pattern of high-level consolidation, supply-demand competition, and slowing upward trend. After a significant increase in the early stage, prices have entered a plateau period, and traders and downstream factories are in a stalemate to observe. The market is mainly moving horizontally, and the fundamental support for short-term high-level operation is still present, but further actions can weaken.
1、 Price Trend Review: Stable at High Levels, Slowing Rise
1. Quarterly trend review (March June)
According to data from Shengyi, the price of sulfur in Shandong Province started at around 4050 yuan/ton in early March, experienced three rounds of upward trend, and has climbed to around 7500 yuan/ton around June 1st, with a cumulative increase of over 85%, setting a new high for the stage.
The first wave of price increase (March): The price rose from 4050 yuan/ton to about 6700 yuan/ton, driven by equipment maintenance and a decline in port inventory, and the market’s bullish sentiment heated up.
The second wave of adjustment (April): Prices surged and fell back, briefly dropping to about 5800 yuan/ton. Downstream purchases were cautious, and the market entered a wait-and-see period.
The third wave of upward movement (May): Prices have once again surged from 5800 yuan/ton to 7500 yuan/ton, with concentrated release from the demand side and tightening from the supply side, driving prices up rapidly.
2. This week’s market situation (May 25th May 31st)
This week, the overall sulfur price showed a high and narrow fluctuation trend, ultimately stabilizing at 7500 yuan/ton:
On May 25th, the price was reported at 7566.67 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.22%, still at a stage high; On May 26th, the price fell back to 7516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%, indicating a market correction signal; May 27th to May 31st: The price remained stable at 7500 yuan/ton, with no daily increase or decrease, and the market was deadlocked.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
1. Supply side:
The maintenance of domestic refineries and natural gas to sulfur units is still ongoing, and the supply in some areas is temporarily tight, supporting the market’s expectation of supply contraction. The port inventory remains at a low level, and the arrival pace of imported sulfur is slower than expected, resulting in limited efforts to supplement supply and providing bottom support for prices.
2. Demand side:
Downstream phosphate fertilizer and chemical enterprises have entered the end of traditional inventory preparation, and their willingness to purchase at high prices has significantly weakened. They mainly purchase on demand and take as needed, resulting in a decrease in market transaction activity. The factory has a low acceptance of high priced sulfur, and traders have a strong willingness to raise prices. There is a divergence in price expectations between supply and demand, leading to a stalemate in the market.
3、 Prediction of future market trends
In the short term, the sulfur market will continue to fluctuate at a high level and remain relatively stable. The core operating range is expected to be between 7300-7700 yuan/ton, with a slower upward trend and potential for increased volatility
Supporting factors: low port inventory, insufficient import replenishment, ongoing maintenance of some facilities, and ongoing supply side support.
Pressure factors: Downstream resistance to high prices is heating up, and the demand for reserve inventory is coming to an end, resulting in insufficient motivation for prices to continue to rise significantly.
4、 Summary: This week, the sulfur market entered a period of rest after a surge, with the technical upward momentum diminishing but the trend not bad. Fundamentally, the supply and demand sides reached a weak balance at high prices. Next week, we need to be vigilant about the short-term pullback risk brought by the dead cross of the moving average.