According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and volatile recently (7.1-7.9). As of July 9th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 13908 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% from 13928 yuan/ton on the first day, and the high point during the cycle was 13983 yuan/ton. Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, providing weak support for rubber rigid demand; The slight decline in raw material prices, coupled with the continued increase in port inventories, still puts some pressure on the natural rubber market. As of July 9th, the mainstream price for 23 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao is 13850-14150 yuan/ton.
As of July 9th, the price of Thai glue was 54.30 baht/kg, a decrease of 2.16 baht/kg from 55.50 baht/kg on July 1st. Currently, the natural rubber production areas in China and Vietnam have been fully cut off; Natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand and Indonesia have entered a period of increased production. The expected increase in global supply remains unchanged, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to continue to decline in the later stage.
Recently (7.1-7.9), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 632400 tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons or 0.05% compared to the previous period.
Recently (7.1-7.9), the production of downstream semi steel tires has slightly decreased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of July 4th, the production of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly decreased to around 7.0%; Around 6.40% of tire companies in Shandong have started construction on all steel tires.
Market forecast: As domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels and expectations continue to decline in the later stage, downstream production fluctuates slightly, providing support for natural rubber demand, and Tianjin Rubber Port inventory remains high; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and rose in June. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2257.50 yuan/ton on June 30th and 2225.00 yuan/ton on June 1st, with a monthly increase of 1.46%.
Cost aspect: In June, the crude oil market prices experienced significant fluctuations, mainly due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As the situation escalated and cooled down, crude oil prices correspondingly rose and fell sharply, with high volatility.
Supply side: In early June, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, downstream procurement was cautious, refinery shipments were hindered, and petroleum coke prices continued to decline; In mid to late June, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was good, and downstream procurement was active. In addition, some refineries had low inventory of petroleum coke, and the price of petroleum coke continued to rise. Some refineries’ prices fluctuated significantly with the indicators. In June, the transaction of petroleum coke at the port was average, with the main focus on destocking at the port, while downstream enterprises maintained their essential procurement.
On the demand side: In June, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed an overall trend of first falling and then stabilizing. In the first ten days of June, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot market of metal silicon # 441 was running in a weak and downward direction. The downstream demand was slowly boosted, and the focus of market negotiation was adjusted downward. In mid to late June, the overall stability and consolidation of the spot market for silicon metal # 441 were the main factors, with little fluctuation in the spot market and a slight stalemate in supply and demand performance. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

The market for medium sulfur calcined coke remained stable in June, with an overall increase in the cost of petroleum coke. However, the price of medium high sulfur calcined coke was affected by negative demand, and most companies’ quotations remained stable.
Aluminum prices were relatively strong in June. From a fundamental perspective, currently in the off-season of traditional consumption in China, domestic demand is relatively weak, and aluminum prices are relatively high, resulting in insufficient downstream purchasing and receiving enthusiasm; On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is unlikely to decrease during the southwest rainy season, but the probability of maintaining a weekly output of 844000 tons is relatively high, and the supply is relatively stable. From a cost perspective, the stabilization of raw material alumina has led to short-term strength, which may provide relative support for aluminum prices in the near future. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, trading in the petroleum coke market is still acceptable, and downstream demand procurement still provides support for the petroleum coke market. It is expected that petroleum coke will mainly consolidate in the near future.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 7th, the price of isooctanol was 7733.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.43% compared to the price of 7550 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose, with many isooctanol enterprises undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, a reduction in isooctanol production, and a decrease in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in demand for isooctanol and a decrease in both supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 7th, the DOP price was 8259.17 yuan/ton, which first fell and then rose compared to the DOP price of 8259.17 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the overall price has stabilized; Compared to the DOP price of 8184.16 yuan/ton on July 2nd, it has increased by 0.92%. In July, DOP production decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer industry dropped to around 50%. Plasticizer production also decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and rose. The production of plasticizers has decreased, and the demand for isooctanol is weak.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, in terms of demand, the equipment operation of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, the demand for isooctanol is weak, and the support for isooctanol has weakened; On the supply side, the production of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased. In the future, as supply decreases and demand weakens, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 30th to July 4th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 8700 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 6.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.32%. The domestic BDO market has been stagnant after rising. Restarting production capacity exceeds maintenance capacity, resulting in a significant increase in supply and weakened supply side support; However, the demand in downstream industries has decreased, and the supply is significantly greater than the demand, exacerbating the wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
On the supply side, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly increased to around 55%, and the market supply of goods has increased significantly, weakening the favorable situation on the supply side. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has experienced a downward trend, with mainstream trade prices in the Wuhai area falling to 2350 yuan/ton, and production enterprises are actively shipping. The domestic methanol market has fallen from a high level, and as of 10:00 am on July 4th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is between 2465-2470 yuan/ton. Raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are both showing a downward trend, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PBAT and TPU have seen an increase in production, but PTMEG, PBT, and PU pulp have seen a decline in production, resulting in a reduction in overall consumption on the demand side. As a result, pressure on BDO supply and demand has begun to emerge. Downstream industries are still in a loss making state and are resistant to high priced raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: With the restart of maintenance equipment in the BDO market, the supply of goods will increase again, and the support on the supply side will weaken. Downstream industries have slightly increased production, leading to an increase in raw material digestion. However, the increase in supply exceeds demand, and the pressure on supply and demand will continue to increase. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will enter a stage of stagnation and consolidation.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1386 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1264 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 122 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall decline of 8.80%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been weak and declining this month. Due to the restoration of the soda ash maintenance equipment, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has increased. At the same time, the downstream market is weak, and soda ash is mainly purchased on demand. The consumption of soda ash is average, and the sales pressure of enterprises has increased. Under the pressure of inventory, soda ash prices continue to decline.
As of June 30, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1140-1300 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 140-150 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1130-1300 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 100-120 yuan/ton within the month; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 170-250 yuan/ton within the month.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price trend has been weak and downward this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 14.38 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 13.82 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 3.89%. During the month, the glass market had sufficient spot goods, downstream demand was weak, market trading atmosphere was sluggish, enterprise inventory accumulated, market destocking was slow, and glass prices were running weakly.
Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current price of soda ash is weak and declining, the market trading atmosphere is not good, the supply side opening rate is high, and the sales pressure of enterprises still exists. The downstream market trend on the demand side continues to be weak, with limited consumption of soda ash and a lack of market benefits. It is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to be weak in the future, depending on downstream market demand.