According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate has shown a narrow range of fluctuations recently. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate spot trading society was 73016 yuan/ton, up 1.95% month on month and down 10.3% year-on-year; The benchmark price for domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate spot trading is 71166 yuan/ton, up 1.93% month on month and down 9.69% year-on-year.
Supply side: pressure and support coexist
The overall supply side presents a situation where pressure and support are intertwined. On the one hand, supply pressure still exists: domestic lithium carbonate production continues to grow, and it is expected that the production may exceed 90000 tons in October, which will exert a certain pressure on market prices.
On the other hand, Chilean customs released export data showing that the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile in September 2025 was 15918 tons, a decrease of 5.83% compared to the previous month and 12.74% compared to the previous year. Among them, 11101 tons were exported to China, a decrease of 14.5% compared to the previous month and 33.1% compared to the previous year. To some extent, it reduces the increase in market supply.
Demand side: resilience and hidden concerns intertwined
On the demand side, there is a characteristic of both support and hidden concerns. In the field of power batteries, demand remains resilient. With the continuous development of the new energy vehicle industry, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has steadily increased, driving the growth of demand for power batteries and providing certain support for the demand for lithium carbonate.
However, the escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States has also increased the uncertainty of export orders for lithium carbonate and downstream products such as energy storage batteries, further putting pressure on the demand side.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current lithium carbonate market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate narrowly around the current price. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, 85% of industrial grade formic acid in China showed a stable operation trend after the holiday. As of October 14th, Shengyi Society’s 85% industrial grade formic acid was 2800 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 9.68% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%.
Supply and demand dominant prices
The core contradiction in the current formic acid market lies in weak demand, and downstream industries (such as pesticides, leather, printing and dyeing, etc.) have not shown substantial improvement. Purchasing enthusiasm continues to be low, which has suppressed prices. At the same time, the supply side inventory is at a median controllable level, and the supply-demand balance is difficult to break in the short term.
There are potential supply variables in the market
According to market news, a large production enterprise in Liaocheng may launch a maintenance plan. If the maintenance plan is implemented as scheduled and the scale and cycle of the maintenance are large, it may lead to a tightening of supply in some areas, which will have a certain supporting effect on market sentiment and prices; But the current news has not been confirmed.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that after October, the formic acid market will be in a state of “stable fundamentals+potential variables to be observed”, and the overall price will mainly operate steadily. In the short term, it is still necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the specific progress of maintenance plans for Liaocheng enterprises. These two factors will become the key to breaking the current price deadlock. It is expected that in the absence of clear drivers, the price of 85% concentration formic acid will continue to fluctuate within the range of around 2800 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded and steadily increased since September 22nd. After the National Day holiday, the market continued to operate at a high level. On September 22nd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 713 yuan/ton, and on October 13th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 830 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 16.36%.
The supply is tightening and the hydrogen peroxide market is on the rise
Since the end of September, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market has experienced a broad upward trend, with hydrogen peroxide prices reaching new highs. The supply side is tightening, and market transactions are improving, supported by positive factors. The hydrogen peroxide market is rising strongly, with an average market price of 820 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday, an increase of over 10%. As of October 13th, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise slightly, reaching 830 yuan/ton, an increase of over 16% compared to September 22nd.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid October, the rigid demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will increase, and the supply of hydrogen peroxide will still be tight. The market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

After the holiday, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 11th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6216.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.22% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 6293.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of ortho benzene fell, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, the cost support of phthalic anhydride decreased, and the equipment load of phthalic anhydride slightly decreased after the holiday in September. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient. The downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell, and the equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises decreased. The demand support for phthalic anhydride weakened. Due to the decrease in costs and weakened demand support, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell after the holiday.
After the holiday, the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased
On October 11th, Sinopec quoted 6300 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.56% from the price of 6400 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, the price of ortho benzene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased. After the holiday, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment slightly decreased, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride remained temporarily stable.
Demand side: Downstream production decreases, DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 11th, the DOP price was 7309.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.79% compared to the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, with less than 60% of DOP enterprises operating at full capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in operating rates. Demand for phthalic anhydride was weak, and the support for phthalic anhydride demand decreased, leading to increased downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, the load of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, and the support for phthalic anhydride demand has decreased; In terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased. In the future, the cost of phthalic anhydride will decrease, coupled with a decrease in demand support, and it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has shown a slight fluctuation trend recently. As of October 10th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 73166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 71366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% month on month and 9.13% year-on-year.
Supply side: Reduced disturbance at the mining end
In July, there was a notice from the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City, Jiangxi Province in the industry. The notice requires eight local lithium mining enterprises to complete the preparation of a verification report on the change of mineral types and reserves before September 30th, and scientifically and reasonably determine the main mineral types for mining. Affected by this news, the spot price of lithium carbonate soared from 60000 to 80000, but the market cooled down rationally and returned to around 70000. Recently, it has been reported that all eight lithium mining companies have submitted their verification reports for changes in mineral types and reserves. The impact of mining on supply has weakened.
Demand side: Energy storage dominates incremental growth, highlighting demand resilience
Energy storage has become the core engine of demand in October, and the delivery cycle of orders from top energy storage battery companies (such as CATL and BYD) has been extended to 45 days. The production rate in September remains above 95%, and the output of positive electrode material factories is expected to continue the month on month upward trend.
The demand for power batteries is steadily improving
The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the market was 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, with a penetration rate of 53.3%. Although the reduction of subsidies in Europe and the United States has slowed down the growth rate of export orders, the demand in the domestic market during peak seasons has supported a steady increase in the installed capacity of power batteries, and demand resilience still exists.
Inventory is still at a high level
As of the end of September, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 136800 tons, including 33500 tons of upstream inventory, 60900 tons of downstream inventory, and 42400 tons of inventory in other links. The suppressive effect of high inventory on prices has not completely subsided, and the supply and demand increment in October may turn into accumulated inventory, restricting the upward space of prices.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the lithium carbonate market in October will be in a balanced state of “improvement in supply and demand margins” and “suppression of high inventory”, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Specific changes in the market still need to be monitored.