In the first half of October, the domestic formaldehyde market showed an overall trend of “first strong and then weak, with a high-level decline”. After the National Day holiday, prices continued to rise in September, reaching a recent high. However, due to the decline in raw material methanol and increased resistance from downstream, the market center of gravity began to shift downwards, and the short-term trend has turned into a weak and volatile one. As of October 14th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1902 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.03% from the beginning of the month and 83.37% from the beginning of the year, setting a new high in prices in nearly five years.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: methanol decline weakens support
The current rise in September and October is essentially a cost driven market trend. After entering mid October, the price of methanol showed a significant decline, and the cost support for formaldehyde weakened accordingly, leading to a decrease in quotes from some factories.
Demand side: Strong demand still exists, but high price acceptance is insufficient
Downstream demand for artificial boards, adhesives, and other products still exists, but due to the weak real estate chain, general board orders, and E0/ENF low formaldehyde standards, there is significant resistance from end-users to high priced formaldehyde, and transactions are mainly based on on-demand procurement.
Supply side: Flexible adjustment of the device, with greater supply elasticity
The formaldehyde plant is relatively flexible in starting and stopping, and the operating rate is prone to rebound after profit recovery. Therefore, it is difficult for the supply side to maintain a tight balance in the long term, which constrains the continuous rise in prices.
Market forecast:
The price of raw material methanol has fallen, the cost side support has weakened, the mentality of industry players is cautious, and downstream acceptance of high prices is not high. In the short term, it is expected that the formaldehyde market will mainly fluctuate weakly at a high level, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity, making it difficult to fall deeply and even more difficult to rise sharply, operating within a range.

After the holiday, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a strong upward trend. As of October 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane was 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, propylene has risen strongly, with strong cost support. This week, the price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise to around 9977 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 2.78%. Liquid chlorine also rose to 250 yuan/ton, providing strong support for epoxy propane on the cost side. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of propylene was 9977.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% compared to the beginning of this month (9707.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Production is steadily increasing, but mid month maintenance is expected to cause disturbances. The overall supply is mainly stable. In mid to late October, some units are expected to undergo maintenance, and the new production capacity project is scheduled to start in October, forming a game between supply increase and maintenance reduction.
On the demand side: follow up on urgent needs is the main focus, and the differentiation pattern continues. The landing of the 300000 ton/year expansion project of the polyether sector’s Innoway has brought about an increase in demand, but the inventory and maintenance arrangements of Wudi Xinyue, Binhua Phase I, and others have resulted in both increased and decreased consumption; The planned shutdown and maintenance of the Shandong Wells plant in the propylene glycol sector will result in a slight decrease in downstream chemical demand in October. Downstream resistance to high priced raw materials has become apparent, with new order follow-up mainly focused on small orders for essential needs and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices.
Comprehensive forecast: In the short term, with the high operation of propylene and the lack of supply side inventory pressure, there is still some upward space for the price of epoxy propane. But in the medium term, with the restoration of maintenance equipment and the gradual realization of new production capacity, the pressure on the supply side tends to increase, while the demand peak season is insufficient and downstream resistance to high prices is becoming stronger, limiting the further upward space of prices. It is expected that prices in Shandong region will fluctuate within the range of 9500-11300 yuan/ton in October. More attention should be paid to the pace of device restart and volume increase, as well as changes in downstream stocking intentions.

1、 Price performance this week
This week, domestic liquid ammonia showed a rapid decline trend after a surge. At the beginning of the week, some regions still maintained a high price of 2900-3000 yuan/ton. With the concentrated resumption of production, the price continued to decline, and the mainstream national benchmark quotation fell to the range of 2540-2560 yuan/ton over the weekend. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia was 9.72%.
As of September 30th, the price range in Shandong region is 2520-2580 yuan/ton, with major companies continuously lowering their quotes and the market transaction center shifting downwards; Inner Mongolia and Northwest Ningxia production areas: 2600-2700 yuan/ton, with increased external distribution of goods; Southwest region: 2620-2680 yuan/ton, following the trend of weakening nationwide. During the week, the market quickly shifted from tight supply and high prices from manufacturers in the early stage to oversupply, and downstream purchasing attitudes tended to be cautious, with a tendency to purchase as needed and a weak willingness to speculate and replenish inventory.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment, significant increase in market supply
The ammonia plant equipment that underwent early maintenance has been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has increased. The amount of liquid ammonia released has significantly increased, and some enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. The pressure of internal shipment has increased, and actively lowering prices to promote transactions has become the mainstream operation. The stable operation of gas head devices in Northwest and Inner Mongolia has led to the outflow of regional goods, which has had an impact on the supply of goods in the North China and Shandong markets, resulting in a contraction of regional price differences. As the National Day holiday approaches, some factories have increased their willingness to ship before the holiday, leading to a significant drop in ammonia prices due to the rise in ammonia production.
Demand side: Strong demand is the main focus, with insufficient overall follow-up efforts
Agriculture end: Downstream fertilizers (urea, compound fertilizers): Autumn fertilizer preparation is gradually starting, but the overall increase in compound fertilizer production is limited, and procurement is mainly based on essential consumption; The self-sufficiency rate of supporting ammonia in urea enterprises is high, and the increase in external liquid ammonia is limited, which does not have a strong impact on the production of commercial ammonia. According to data from Shengyi Society, downstream urea has mainly fallen from high levels this week, with a slight decrease of 0.28%.
Industrial downstream (nitric acid, caprolactam, melamine, etc.): The profits of downstream factories are average, and the equipment maintains moderate operation. Goods are purchased on demand, and there is weak willingness to actively stock up at high prices, resulting in limited order growth. Overall, there has been no unexpected outbreak on the demand side, making it difficult to digest the rapidly increasing market supply.
Cost side: Short term support exists
Cost: Coal prices fluctuate, and there is some support on the cost side of coal to ammonia synthesis. However, the pressure brought by supply increment is greater than the cost support, and the effect of cost on price bottoming is weakened. According to the commodity subsystem of Shengyi Society, the price of thermal coal has remained stable this week and is currently at a temporary high, providing some support for downstream ammonia companies.
3、 Future prospects
The core contradiction in the short-term liquid ammonia market is that the pressure of supply release is greater, which outweighs the benefits of autumn fertilizer preparation improvement. After the completion of the resumption of production, the supply will remain at a high level, and enterprises will concentrate on releasing goods before the holiday. However, downstream procurement will be cautious, and there will still be weak and fluctuating pressure on prices.
Considering the gradual increase in agricultural fertilizer demand in the north and the high coal prices, the downward space for liquid ammonia may be limited. Taking into account all factors, the post holiday period will mainly be characterized by interval fluctuations.

As of September 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 26447 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the zinc price of 26948 yuan/ton on September 1st.
fundamentals
In September 2026, the overall domestic zinc price showed a wide range of fluctuations, including “rising, falling, and bottoming out”. At the beginning of the month, driven by macro sentiment and expectations of the “Golden September” peak season, zinc prices briefly surged. In the middle of the month, prices plummeted rapidly due to demand falsification and bullish stampede. At the end of the month, with the release of negative sentiment, downstream buying on dips to replenish inventory, and the repair of technical differences, zinc prices gradually stabilized and rebounded.
Supply side:
In September, many domestic smelters were in regular production mode, but the processing fees (TC) for imported zinc concentrates remained low, squeezing smelting profits and limiting further release of refined zinc production.
Demand side:
The expected peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” has not been fully realized. The sustained downturn in the real estate sector has dragged down the galvanizing production rate. Although the infrastructure and new energy vehicle sectors provide some support, the overall downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The sharp drop in mid season prices is due to the falsification of demand during peak season and the weakening of macro sentiment, which has triggered bullish stampede and panic selling. At the end of the month, as absolute prices fell to a low level, downstream inventory replenishment increased and social inventory was reduced, supporting price stabilization.
comprehensive analysis
Looking ahead to October, the macro level still needs to pay attention to the overseas interest rate hike path and the implementation of domestic stable growth policies. Fundamentally speaking, the increment on the supply side is limited, and there may be marginal improvement on the demand side under policy stimulus, but the weak supply-demand pattern is difficult to quickly reverse. Technically speaking, the current 5-day moving average has turned upwards and is expected to cross the 10 day moving average, with the moving average returning to the zero axis. There is a need for short-term correction due to strong fluctuations. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range oscillation trend in October, with the main operating range being between 26000-27500 yuan/ton.

In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with a wide range of fluctuations, with a monthly amplitude of 11.25%. The market price fluctuated from 13333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1%.
In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed an overall trend of first suppressing and then rising, with a fluctuating upward trend, and the price center of gravity rose overall during the month. At the beginning of the month, the market continued the weak trend at the end of the month, with prices briefly running at a low level. With the concentrated release of multiple positive factors in the middle and late of the month, the market rebounded from the bottom and the increase continued to expand. The core driving force behind this month’s market fluctuations is the phased adjustment of the supply and demand pattern, combined with fluctuations in raw material costs, concentrated installation maintenance, and seasonal recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, changes in market sentiment and trading mentality further amplify the market fluctuations, and overall break away from the previously weak operating pattern.
Cost aspect: In September, the upstream raw material market for butadiene showed a trend of first weak and then strong, which provided temporary support for the butadiene market and became an important auxiliary factor for market fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil and naphtha prices slightly fell, and the overall cost support for chemical raw materials weakened. While compressing the profit margin of the butadiene industry, it also dragged down market bullish sentiment, which was an important incentive for the low market prices at the beginning of the month. After entering the middle of the month, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, and the price of naphtha rebounded in parallel. The upstream raw material cost center steadily shifted upward, providing a solid cost support for the butadiene market, effectively boosting the willingness of on-site traders and production enterprises to raise prices, and helping the market price rebound and rise. At the end of the month, raw material prices tend to stabilize, and there is no significant fluctuation in the cost side. The market situation then enters a high-level consolidation state, and the driving effect of the cost side on the market tends to be flat. Overall, the cost trend this month is highly synchronized with the butadiene market, with periodic cost fluctuations dominating the short-term market rhythm. As of September 28th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $97.83 per barrel.
Supply side:
The supply side of the butadiene market in September showed a phased characteristic of loose at the beginning of the month, contraction in the middle of the month, and recovery at the end of the month, which was the core factor driving the rise and fall of the entire month’s market. At the beginning of the month, the overall operation of domestic butadiene production facilities was stable, and the industry operating rate remained high. There was sufficient supply of spot goods on the market, and traders had high inventory pressure. The market showed a pattern of oversupply, and companies generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions, resulting in sustained weak price fluctuations at the beginning of the month. The market supply pattern in the middle of the month has undergone a significant change, with multiple main production and cracking units in China entering a period of maintenance and load reduction. Some regional units have temporarily stopped work for maintenance, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. The circulation of spot resources in the market continues to tighten, and the tight supply situation has become prominent, forming strong and favorable support, and driving prices to rise rapidly. At the end of the month, the maintenance equipment has gradually resumed production and restarted, and the industry’s operating rate has slightly rebounded. The market supply of goods has gradually increased, and the tense situation has been eased. The favorable situation on the supply side has subsided, resulting in a slowdown in market growth and entering a high-level game stage.

Demand side:
The downstream demand in September showed a seasonal rebound and phased release, providing core demand support for the upward trend of the market. Butadiene is mainly used for downstream synthetic rubber ABS、 At the beginning of the month, industries such as rubber and plastic maintained stable production, while terminal tire and plastic product companies mainly focused on restocking for essential needs. The demand for centralized stocking has not yet started, and market demand follow-up is weak, making it difficult to drive price increases. Coupled with high price resistance, the overall performance of the demand side is flat. With the gradual manifestation of the traditional peak season effect in the middle of the month, downstream industries have steadily rebounded in production, and terminal enterprises have concentrated their pre holiday stocking demand. The activity of essential procurement has greatly increased, and the tight supply of goods in the market continues to be digested. The supply-demand mismatch pattern has further intensified, strongly driving the rebound of butadiene prices. At the end of the month, the downstream stocking pace gradually slowed down. After the concentrated replenishment in the early stage, the inventory of downstream enterprises was replenished, and their acceptance of high priced sources of butadiene decreased. Purchasing tended to be cautious, and they mostly adhered to the mentality of taking goods according to demand. The market transaction pace slowed down, and the marginal support from the demand side weakened, and the market situation stabilized and consolidated accordingly.
Market forecast:
From the perspective of comprehensive costs, supply and demand, and market sentiment, the domestic butadiene market is likely to maintain a high volatility, stable to strong operating pattern in the short term, with limited unilateral upward and downward momentum in the market. On the supply side, the increase in the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage is relatively limited, and the overall short-term market spot supply is still tight, which forms a bottom support for prices; The overall stability of crude oil and naphtha prices on the cost side, with no significant downward risk, continues to support the market trend. From the demand side, there is still some room for downstream pre holiday stocking demand to continue, and the support of terminal rigid demand has not completely subsided. There are still positive factors on the short-term demand side. But at the same time, we need to be vigilant about potential risks in the future. As the equipment continues to resume work, market supply will gradually increase, and downstream stocking demand may gradually decline. The follow-up efforts for essential needs will weaken, and the market supply and demand pattern may change again at that time. There is a possibility of periodic market correction and consolidation. Overall, the future market needs to focus on tracking fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and follow-up on downstream terminal demand.