In September 2026, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market experienced a severe fluctuation of “sharp rise and fall”. In the first half of September, driven by the strong rise of raw material epoxy propane, the price of propylene glycol quickly rose. In the second half of the month, the market quickly fell back with the decline of epoxy propane. As of September 28th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% from mid month and an increase of 1.77% from the beginning of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost side: Epoxy propane “inverted V” market transmission, supporting the shift from strong to strong
Epoxy propane (PO) is the most essential cost source of propylene glycol. In September, the epoxy propane market experienced a typical “inverted V” trend: at the beginning of the month, it rose steadily under the dual drive of strong cost side price increases and tight supply, but after mid month, the epoxy propane price quickly fell back. The sudden loosening of the cost side directly led to the loss of the most important price support for propylene glycol, causing a rapid decline in the market in the second half of the month.
Supply side: Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment and realization of incremental expectations
The logic of “spot tightness” that supported prices in the early stage reversed in the second half of the month, and the total supply remained loose compared to the first half.
On the demand side: Jinjiu fails, with urgent needs as the main focus
The weekly operating rate of downstream UPR (unsaturated resin) is only about 33%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period, but the absolute operating rate is at a low level; The polyether sector has a stable but slightly loose offer, with manufacturers secretly lowering prices to promote orders, and downstream demand for immediate use and procurement; Antifreeze is still in the off-season; The expectation of stocking up before National Day and Mid Autumn Festival has not been fulfilled, and both traders and downstream are “waiting for a drop to stock up”. Export orders are also temporarily suspended and waiting for a price reduction; The consumption of terminal building materials and coatings is weak, and the acceptance of high priced sources is poor.
Market forecast: Weak pressure, center of gravity may shift slightly downwards
Overall, the short-term propylene glycol market is facing multiple pressures. On the cost side, epoxy propane has entered a downward channel after experiencing a surge, and the center of gravity is expected to continue to slightly shift downwards in October, further weakening cost support. On the supply side, the September maintenance equipment has basically resumed production, and coupled with the expectation of concentrated release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the pressure of supply increment will continue to exist. On the demand side, downstream stocking efforts are limited before and after the National Day holiday, and the peak season characteristics are likely to continue to be weaker than expected, with rigid procurement remaining the main tone. It is expected that the price center of propylene glycol will further shift downwards in early October, but the potential for a deep decline is limited by the bottom line support of raw material costs.

This week (9.17-9.24), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15800 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.63%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
From fundamental data, prices stabilized horizontally from September 17th to 20th, but fell continuously for three days starting from September 21st. The market frequently indicates a “low level”, reflecting weak downstream demand and insufficient purchasing willingness, resulting in a pattern of oversupply and pressure on spot prices. As of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the price has stabilized at 15800 yuan/ton, with a slight slowdown in the downward trend.
Supply and demand side
The marginal reduction in supply side production has weakened, and the cost inversion has supported the bottom. Some magnesium factories in the main production area of Fugu have started to reduce production, and the reduction in production has significantly narrowed compared to the previous week, with a marginal decline in supply contraction. But most magnesium factories are in a state of severe cost inversion, with factories controlling the pace of shipments and scarce low-priced sources. The raw materials of blue charcoal and 75 silicon iron continue to be weak, and cost support continues to weaken.
The demand side urgently needs support, but the peak season falls short. Downstream magnesium alloy die-casting enterprises mainly consume their own inventory, and maintain sporadic replenishment of inventory as needed. The characteristics of the “Golden September” peak season have not yet emerged. In terms of exports, due to the slower than expected recovery of overseas demand and high sea freight rates, the follow-up of foreign trade orders is slow, which has limited impact on domestic prices. The long-term replacement logic of aluminum alloy addition and magnesium alloy lightweighting is still in place, but the short-term increment is insufficient.
integrated forecasting
The current magnesium market lacks favorable support in terms of fundamentals, and the technical aspect is in a bearish dominant stage. It is expected that magnesium prices will remain weakly volatile in the short term, and close attention should be paid to the support strength of the 15800 yuan/ton mark and the recovery of downstream demand.

1、 Price trend
As of September 23rd, the price of high-performance power type lithium iron phosphate is 52166 yuan/ton, with current transaction prices ranging from 52200 to 55500 yuan/ton for power type lithium iron phosphate and 51800 to 53000 yuan/ton for energy storage type lithium iron phosphate; The benchmark price fell from 56700 yuan/ton in early September to 52000 yuan/ton, with two consecutive weekly declines. Looking at the longer period, the average price of power type in the third quarter of 2025 was only 35771 yuan/ton and energy storage type was 29000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter of 2026, it surged to 58178 yuan/ton for power type and 57016 yuan/ton for energy storage type, with increases of 63% and 97% respectively; The highest point of the year was in June, with the power type reaching 67000 yuan/ton at one point.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of cost, the cost of lithium iron phosphate is composed of lithium carbonate (60% -65%) and iron phosphate processing fees (30% -35%). For every 10000 yuan/ton increase in lithium carbonate, the cost of the positive electrode increases by about 2300-2500 yuan/ton. Under the pricing model of “raw material cost+fixed processing fee”, long-term agreements negotiate on a monthly basis, and there is a delay in the daily rise and fall of lithium prices to the finished product end. Therefore, there has been a differentiation in recent times, with lithium carbonate rebounding by 3.8% in a single day and lithium iron quotations weakening in the opposite direction.
Lithium salt end: On September 22, battery grade lithium carbonate was in stock at 129800 to 139000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 134300 yuan/ton. Futures main LC2701 closed at 134500 yuan/ton, up 2.61%, and continued to decline before stopping. In mid May, it reached a high of 209800 yuan/ton and fell to a low of 128080 yuan/ton on September 11, with a pullback of more than 40%. Since September, spot prices have fallen by more than 20%.
In terms of demand: Power end: In August 2026, domestic power batteries will be installed at 79.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, including 67.6 GWh of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 85.6%, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%; From January to August, a total of 489.1 GWh of vehicles were loaded, with 402.7 GWh of lithium iron, accounting for 82.3%, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.
The market share trend is very stable: 74.4% in 2024 → 81.2% in 2025 → 82.3% from January to August 2026. There has been no sustained reverse decline in any quarter for the past three years. The 11.0GWh of Sanyuan, owned by Li Ning De Times, accounts for 66.8% and has retreated to long range, high-end models, and low-temperature scenarios.
The energy storage end is the real engine: In August, the sales volume of energy storage batteries was 76.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 114.3% and a month on month increase of 36.0%, accounting for 34.2% of the total sales volume. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was 450.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, with a growth rate more than twice that of power batteries (38.7%). The operating rate of energy storage batteries in August was 87.36%, a month on month increase of 1.28 percentage points. Large battery cells with 500Ah capacity were fully mass-produced (Ningde Times 587Ah, Yiwei 628Ah, Guoxuan 588Ah), all centered around the iron lithium system, leaving almost no room for ternary space.

The lithium hexafluorophosphate market maintained a high and stable operation in September. As of September 22nd, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) is 115500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
2、 Raw material end: The core raw materials for lithium hexafluorophosphate are lithium carbonate, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, phosphorus pentachloride, and lithium fluoride. In the first half of the year, the average purchase price of major raw materials increased comprehensively, with lithium carbonate rising by 12%, lithium fluoride rising by 16%, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride rising by 18%, and phosphorus pentachloride rising by 19%. Although the spot price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly in September and the cost center shifted downwards, the prices of lithium fluoride and anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remained high, providing strong cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of September 22, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 134000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the beginning of this month (156000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises has basically reached full capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a high level of over 90%, and the global production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to reach 372000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
4、 Demand side: Downstream demand is strong, and energy storage has become the core growth engine. Driven by the trend of high-end development, the increase in single vehicle charging capacity supports the sustained growth of installed capacity for power batteries; Energy storage batteries are driven by new electricity consumption scenarios such as AI data centers, and their growth rate continues to be higher than that of power batteries, becoming the core incremental source of electrolyte demand. Downstream electrolyte companies have full orders and production schedules continue to increase month on month, providing strong support for the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate.
5、 Market forecast: The short-term tight supply-demand balance pattern continues, and with the deepening of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season, it is expected that prices will maintain a strong operation; If the newly added production capacity in the fourth quarter is released as scheduled, the increase may be suppressed to a certain extent, and the overall trend is expected to show the characteristics of “tight supply and demand, and rational price operation”.

Since September, the Shunding rubber market has surged in the early stage and fluctuated at mid to high levels. As of September 20th, the price of Shunding rubber in the East China region was 15700 yuan/ton, up 3.43% from 15180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the high point during the cycle was 16210 yuan/ton. The cost and supply side provide strong support for butadiene rubber, while weak downstream demand to some extent suppresses the growth of butadiene rubber.
Butadiene first rose and then fell in September, with prices rising at the beginning of the month due to maintenance of cracking units and crude oil; The gradual resumption of mid month maintenance equipment and the increase in port inventory have led to a correction in butadiene prices. The data shows that in mid September, the inventory of butadiene in East China ports was 23700 tons, an increase of 4700 tons compared to the previous month. As of September 20th, the price of butadiene was 13833 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.75 yuan/ton from 13333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 6.74% from the high point of 14833 yuan/ton during the cycle.
In terms of supply, since September, facilities such as Qilu and Taixiang have been shut down for maintenance, coupled with the loss reduction of private factories, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of Gaoshun Shunding in China to 5.90% and a decline in weekly production. Social inventory continues to decrease, and low inventory forms a bottom support for rubber prices.
Downstream tire production has declined, resulting in insufficient support for butadiene rubber. As of September 11th, the domestic semi steel tire production rate was 65.53%; The operating rate of all steel tires is 63.53%. The inventory turnover of semi-finished steel tires is 44.7 days, while that of all steel tires is 36.4 days. The demand for end commercial and passenger vehicles is relatively weak. Although tire companies have issued price increase letters, with a 2% -5% increase, the high prices of raw materials have suppressed profits, and factories only maintain essential purchases. There is insufficient willingness to proactively replenish inventory, and the peak season delivery falls short of expectations.
Market forecast:
The spot price and moving average of butadiene rubber show that in the early stage, the spot price of butadiene rubber reversed and rose from late June, and the price continued to rise along the moving average system, forming a long position. After reaching above 16000 in September, the price fell below the 5-day short-term moving average, and the short-term upward trend slowed down. The 10/20 day moving average remains upward, and medium-term support is still in place. Short term or volatile pullback, testing the support of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages; If the support is held, the bullish pattern will continue; If the moving average falls below, the current rebound market will weaken.
Overall, in the short term, Shunding will maintain a high level and fluctuate widely. Low inventory and maintenance equipment continue to support bottom prices; However, there is an expectation of restart in the butadiene plant, which weakens cost support and suppresses upward space due to downstream high price resistance. If the maintenance continues or there is a geopolitical disturbance in crude oil, there is a chance for the price to rebound.