market trend
According to monitoring data, the domestic PA66 market price has continued to decline in the past week (June 9-16). On June 9th, the benchmark price of PA66 market was 20866.67 yuan/ton, and on June 15th, the benchmark price fell to 19800.00 yuan/ton, showing a steady downward trend in price. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, and transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
influencing factors
Cost side: Cost support continues to weaken. The market for core raw material adipic acid has been continuously declining, with prices continuing to decline this week, directly lowering the cost of raw materials for PA66 production; At the same time, the new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine was released, the market supply of goods was sufficient, and the price remained stable with a slight decline, further weakening the support of the raw material side. The loosening of the crude oil price center and the lack of obvious benefits in the upstream energy chain, coupled with the fact that PA66 production enterprises still maintain basic processing profits, there is no situation where losses force production cuts. The cost side is difficult to effectively support spot prices, and the downward resistance to prices is relatively small.
Supply and demand side: Overall, there is a pattern of loose supply and weak demand. In terms of supply, the industry’s operating rate remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is gradually accumulating. The pressure to ship has increased, and the phenomenon of traders offering discounts to promote transactions has increased. In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream terminal industries has fallen short of expectations, with weak demand in mainstream application areas such as automobiles and general engineering plastics. Coupled with the current industry entering a traditional off-season, downstream factories are only maintaining rigid replenishment, and their willingness to purchase in large quantities is low. The overall market demand is difficult to boost, which continues to drag down the rise of PA66 market.
technical analysis
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st, with an average difference of -113.33 yuan/ton on June 14th. The average difference has narrowed from negative to widening again, indicating that the PA66 market continues to decline and the rate of decline has expanded again. The price has dropped from 20766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 19800 yuan/ton, which is below the annual median.
Future forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market will continue to experience weak fluctuations and a slight downward shift in focus. The overall trend will be dominated by a weak stalemate, and it is difficult for a significant rise or fall to occur. The bottom support of costs will limit the extent of market decline, but the short board on the supply and demand side is difficult to quickly repair, and the weak trend of downstream demand is difficult to reverse in the short term. The expected price range for PA66 in the near future is between 19500-20200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend
This week, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated and fell. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 7650 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the price of pure benzene was 7613.33 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.48% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene in Shandong region fluctuated and fell this week. At present, the latest news is that the US and Iran are close to reaching a framework for the next stage of the agreement, and the market is optimistic about the prospects of the US Iran peace talks. Yesterday, international crude oil futures closed lower, and the confidence in the pure benzene market was average. Today, Shandong’s local refining is mainly focused on stability, while the operation of pure benzene in East China is relatively weak.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On June 11th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $87.71 per barrel, a decrease of $2.32 or 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $90.38 per barrel, a decrease of $2.72 or 2.9%.
Foreign pure benzene: On June 11th, FOB Korea rose by 2 to 970 US dollars per ton, and CFR China rose by 4 to 980 US dollars per ton. FOB Rotterdam fell 1 to 1149 US dollars per ton, while FOB USG remained stable at 375 US cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: The short-term pure benzene market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

This week, the supply side continued to shrink, with major factories operating at low loads and spot market prices stabilizing. As of June 12th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10200-10300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 9900-10050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end price.
Market Overview: The overall market quotation remained stable during the week, with buying orders following up as needed, and the downward trend in prices temporarily suspended. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has once again declined, the supply side continues to shrink, and cost pressure continues to exist. Low price spot resources on the market are gradually being digested, and buying in the spot market is following suit, partly for export demand and partly for low-level replenishment. The sales pressure on suppliers has eased and inventory has decreased, thus stabilizing prices overall. However, the market or temporary bottoming out is the main factor, and the rebound momentum is still insufficient.
Supply side:
During the week, Jilin Petrochemical reduced its load to 80%, and the supply side continued to shrink. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 5-11) was 66.67%, a decrease of 4.37% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 77800 tons, which is 0.51 million tons higher than the previous cycle. During the week, the supply decreased again, with both the north and south facilities experiencing a decrease in negative load. At the same time, buying orders followed suit, and some companies’ inventory decreased. According to statistics, as of June 11th, the total inventory was about 46000 tons, an increase of -0.2 million tons from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.1%, a decrease of -0.9% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 74%, an increase of 13.37% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 53.28%, an increase of -0.9% compared to last week. Overall, the operating load of the ABS and acrylamide industries has decreased, and the overall downstream demand remains weak.
Cost aspect:
During the week, the raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, while at the same time, the price of acrylonitrile stopped falling, which improved the situation of acrylonitrile production losses. According to statistics, as of June 12th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 8840-8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton from last week’s 9050-9060 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 11156 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -1.96%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -905 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of+54 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the overall downstream demand is still weak. Recently, except for the acrylic fiber industry, which has shown an improvement in production, other downstream areas such as ABS and acrylamide have continued to decline in production due to sluggish demand. The overall consumption situation is still not optimistic, so the market is mainly experiencing a temporary bottoming out, and the rebound power is still insufficient.

In June, the domestic price of butadiene rubber continued to fall, and the market’s long short game intensified. Whether the market hit bottom has become the focus of industry attention. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of domestic butadiene rubber in East China has fallen to 13620 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.69% compared to the price before the outbreak of the US Iran conflict, and a decrease of 24.92% from the high point of 18140 yuan/ton in early April.
This round of decline is mainly dragged down by raw materials. Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to weaken, directly lowering the industry’s cost center. Coupled with the spread of pessimistic market sentiment, the price of butadiene has declined accordingly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of butadiene was 10486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.32% from the high point of 18833 yuan/ton since the Middle East conflict. The current market price is close to the industry’s cash cost line, and most production enterprises are hovering at the break even point. Continuing to significantly reduce prices will force equipment to reduce production, and the cost side will build a solid bottom support.
The overall supply side presents a relaxed pattern. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants remains high, coupled with the gradual release of some new production capacity, the market supply of goods is steadily increasing. As of June 4th, the construction of Shunding Rubber started at around 6.70%. At the same time, the amount of imported goods arriving at the port has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated slightly, which to some extent suppresses the rebound of spot prices. However, after the concentrated selling in the early stage, the low-priced supply in the market gradually decreased, and the panic selling pressure has been basically released.
The demand side remains the core factor restricting the rebound of the market. June to July is the traditional off-season for the tire industry, with domestic tire factories maintaining low operating rates, and both semi steel and all steel tire operating data showing lackluster performance. As of June 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 70%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.80%. The enterprise only focuses on essential procurement and has a low willingness to replenish raw materials. In addition, changes in the overseas trade environment have also put pressure on tire export orders, making it difficult for downstream overall demand to show outstanding performance.
Market forecast:
From the spot price and moving average chart of butadiene rubber, it can be seen that from May to early May 2026, the price of butadiene rubber showed a unilateral downward trend, and the price remained below the moving averages on the 10th and 20th. The moving averages were bearish, and the downward trend continued and accelerated in the later period.

On June 10th, the supply side remained tight, and the market price center remained firm, with sporadic quotes in the spot market. The mainstream market spot price in East China closed at 7160 yuan/ton,+40 yuan/ton; The South China market closed at 7300 yuan/ton,+50 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $874/ton,+6 $/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Unit: The 800000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit in Hainan will start shutdown and maintenance over the weekend, and is expected to continue until November. The 750000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be scheduled for maintenance and shutdown starting from yesterday, with an expected shutdown time of about 10 days. A 280000 ton/year ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Sinopec will be shut down and maintained last weekend; Individual facilities in Iran have restarted, while three sets of facilities in Taiwan and Malaysia have restarted, releasing signals for the early shutdown of facilities due to raw materials.
Supply: Short term low load operation of domestic facilities, no substantial progress in ocean freight sources, and overall supply is still relatively low. As of June 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 12600 tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. This week (June 9-15), there are no plans for Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol to arrive at the port. Downstream orders are lukewarm, with many urgent purchases, and the main ports in East China maintain the expectation of destocking.
Demand: Downstream polyester and unsaturated resin are operating at low load. According to statistics, as of June 4th, the average operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin factories is 32%, which is the same as the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from June 5th to June 7th, a total of 637 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of 212 tons. On June 9th, the total shipment volume from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 367 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous day, and the performance of port pickup further contracted.
Market outlook: Currently, the supply and demand of the diethylene glycol market are weak, with downstream demand dominating prices, especially the poor performance of north-south demand. Short term prices are still strong spot prices with weak expectations, and are subject to wide fluctuations due to emotions. Forward prices will further expand, with a focus on the follow-up of downstream demand, the substantial opening of the Strait of Hormuz in ceasefire negotiations, the efficiency of crude oil and imported cargo output, and the recovery level after the destruction of foreign facilities.