In August, domestic liquid ammonia did not continue the upward trend of the previous month, but turned into a decline, and the decline was significantly greater than the previous month’s increase. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region in August was 12.74%. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2200-2350 yuan/ton.
Equipment resumption and high inventory bring pressure
From a supply side perspective, the supply-demand structure continues to be in an oversupply situation. As we enter August, the operating rate continues to increase. Previously, maintenance companies have resumed work one after another, coupled with an increase in ammonia conversion capacity. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continue to be lowered. Furthermore, the import volume continues to increase, and low-priced foreign sources are impacting the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. During the month, major factories in Shandong have repeatedly lowered the ex factory price of liquid ammonia, with a range of 300-350 yuan/ton. From the demand side perspective, in the traditional off-season, downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support, and industrial demand remains rigid with little fluctuation. Downstream weakness has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.
The cooling of the industrial chain is mainly due to the weakness of the upstream and downstream
From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, the performance of the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia is weak, and the upstream natural gas continues to be weak, with a monthly decline of 5.09%. Especially in the downstream sector, there is still a general cooling trend, with more declines and less gains, heavier declines and smaller gains. Especially urea is still lukewarm, according to monitoring, the decline in urea in August was as high as 5.79%. This is mainly reflected in weak downstream demand, low season in agriculture, and the current increase in compound fertilizer production not meeting market expectations. The terminal production in the industrial demand field is also showing a downward trend. The market is generally dominated by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the ammonia market from getting out of the slump.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, the market supply and demand pressure will not decrease next month, and the impact will tend to weaken as the equipment will be on and off. The mentality of enterprises to raise prices may be reflected, and the downward space in the later stage may be compressed. In addition, there may be an increase in ammonia conversion enterprises in the later stage, and there is a trend of increasing ammonia production. The supply and demand pressure in September should not be underestimated.
From the demand side, in the short term, demand remains stable, and expectations for the later period may be weak. On the one hand, the agricultural peak season has not yet begun, and trading is light. In addition, industrial demand remains dominated by rigid demand, and overall, downstream liquid ammonia may continue to drag down its price recovery in the later stage.
Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to hover at a low level in the short term, and in the later stage of supply and demand competition, the ammonia market may enter a volatile range, further narrowing the range of price fluctuations. We need to pay attention to the manufacturer’s equipment start-up news in the later stage.

Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.
September aluminum price forecast
Aluminum prices in September are expected to remain volatile overall. Mainly based on the medium to long term perspective, in a situation where supply is relatively stable or growing, demand growth is slow, and macroeconomic uncertainty is high, aluminum prices lack the motivation to continue to rise significantly. The specific factors are as follows:
Macroeconomics: Although the US economic data is still performing well, the global economy still faces many uncertainties, such as the uncertain path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which may have a certain impact on aluminum prices.
Fundamentals:
Short term macro positive news: The US GDP data for the second quarter has been raised, business investment has grown significantly, and the consumer market has shown some vitality, providing macro level support for aluminum prices. Moreover, with a preference for macro sentiment, investors’ optimism outweighs concerns about the uncertainty of the interest rate cut path, and the influx of funds into the market may drive up aluminum prices.
Supply side: Some alumina enterprises, such as a certain alumina plant in Guizhou, have undergone maintenance, resulting in a short-term decrease in supply and providing some support for aluminum prices.
Cost support: Although there are fluctuations in the cost of alumina and other materials, they can provide some overall support for aluminum prices, limiting their downward potential.
Restrictive factors:
Demand side: The downstream operating rate of domestic aluminum has slightly rebounded, but consumption growth is limited. The demand growth in fields such as construction, automobiles, and photovoltaic profiles is not strong, especially in the photovoltaic industry where demand is weak, which poses a certain constraint on the rise of aluminum prices.
Inventory factors: The social inventory of aluminum and LME aluminum ingot inventory are showing an increasing trend, leading to increased inventory pressure and to some extent restraining the rapid rise in aluminum prices.
Conclusion: Short term aluminum prices are dominated by macroeconomic favorable factors and are expected to receive more support, showing a strong and volatile trend. However, due to constraints from demand and inventory factors, the upward trend is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market first rose and then fell in August, with an overall decline. From August 1st to 28th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 15416 yuan/ton to 15316 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.65% and a year-on-year price drop of 11.46%.
In early August, the factory started operating steadily, the news of rising prices from suppliers was released, the quotes from intermediaries were stable but pushed up, and downstream transactions were small but mostly single. Under the supply-demand game, the market rose slightly..
In mid to late August, after the rise of aggregated MDI, the gains were absorbed and the market began to stabilize. Downstream demand has just entered the market, with a high number of downstream units. During the off-season of demand, upstream shipments are not smooth, and large factories have lowered their quotes. Traders have reduced their prices to sell, leading to a lack of confidence among businesses. The aggregated MDI market has entered a downward channel, with weak prices falling at the end of the month.
On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an will begin on July 23rd and is expected to last for about 35 days. The remaining devices are running smoothly.
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene: In August, the pure benzene market fluctuated and rose, influenced by its own supply and demand and macro privacy. The average price of pure benzene at the beginning of the month was 6075 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 6154 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.28%. The aniline market fluctuated and stabilized in August. On August 1st, the market price of aniline was 7550 yuan/ton, and on August 28th, the price was 7550 yuan/ton, with no fluctuations during the cycle, a decrease of 25.43% compared to the same period last year.
On the demand side, downstream urgent procurement, entering the market at low prices. There are few inquiries and insufficient support from the demand side.
Market forecast: As the end of the month approaches, the market atmosphere will become weaker, intermediaries’ willingness to ship is weak, and the supply side’s willingness to raise prices will increase. Waiting for the latest price guidance from major manufacturers, it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on August 27th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced at 7087 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7262 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in August, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak downward trend. During the month, the center of gravity of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong has been consolidating and moving downwards, and the focus of market negotiations has gradually decreased. As of August 27th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong, China is around 7050-7150 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: In August, there was little overall change in the spot supply of cyclohexanone in Shandong, and the supply performance was relatively stable. The downstream demand performance was poor, and the downstream stocking and purchasing performance was cautious. The transmission between supply and demand was slow, and the overall support for the cyclohexanone market was weak.
In terms of cost: In August, the market for pure benzene on the cost raw material side fluctuated and adjusted, providing sufficient cost support for cyclohexanone. On August 26th, the reference price for pure benzene was 6155.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% compared to August 1st (6075.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is average. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly undergo narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated slightly upwards recently (8.11-8.25). As of August 25th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14975 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% from 14816 yuan/ton on the 11th. Downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for Tianjian; On the other hand, the price of natural rubber raw materials remains strong, and the cost support of natural rubber continues; In addition, the slight decrease in domestic port inventory and the improvement of market atmosphere have driven natural rubber prices to fluctuate and rise. As of August 25th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14900-15100 yuan/ton.
As of August 25th, the price of Thai glue was 55.25 baht/kg, an increase of 2.31% from 54.00 baht/kg on August 11th. In mid August, heavy rainfall in some parts of Thailand caused resistance to natural rubber (TSR) cutting activities, coupled with unstable production in Vietnam’s old natural rubber plantations, which supported the price of natural rubber raw materials in the short term. But in the later stage, with the expected restart of rubber cutting in the past, the price of natural rubber raw materials may fall from a high level.
Recently (8.11-8.25), natural rubber inventories have continued to decrease slightly, and the market atmosphere has improved. As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 606200 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons or 1.71% compared to the previous period.
Recently (8.11-8.25), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of August 22, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.40%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally, as well as the increase in downstream tire production, provide support for the Tianjin rubber market. The Tianjin rubber port inventory has slightly decreased, and with the arrival of the peak season, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate and rise in the later period.