Cost driven cyclohexanone market trend tends to be strong

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from January 29th to February 2nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9518 yuan/ton to 9675 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.64% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.78%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is on the rise, and the raw material pure benzene market is operating strongly. The cost pressure is constantly increasing, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone market is not high. Downstream solvents are gradually on vacation, and chemical fibers are purchased on demand. Due to cost pressure, the market low price is continuously decreasing.

 

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has significantly increased, the increase in pure benzene production is limited, and downstream factories have low inventory. They actively picked up goods from ports before the year. As of February 2nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7967.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

 

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.13%, which is+0.33% higher than last week. The weekly production is 101600 tons, which is+01300 tons compared to last week. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

 

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has remained strong and organized, with upstream pure benzene prices continuing to rise recently and strong cost support. Although the caprolactam plant has restarted and resumed supply, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the selling price is mainly firm. The downstream PA6 polymerization factory is operating steadily and replenishing as needed. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

 

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is operating at a high level, with good cost support. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are weak, and the cyclohexanone analyst from Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly experience a slight consolidation in the short term.

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In January, n-propanol market consolidated

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the domestic market price of n-propanol was referenced at 7950 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month. Compared with December 13, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7850 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27%.

 

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in January, the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol remained stable and organized. Within the month, the fundamentals of the domestic n-propanol market were relatively calm, with little adjustment in the supply and demand sides. The overall production of n-propanol was normal, and the pace of supply side shipments was normal. Downstream n-propanol was stocked according to demand and quantity. The overall transmission of supply and demand in the market was stable, and there were no significant fluctuations in the market. As of January 31st, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7800 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

 

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

 

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is light and mild. Some downstream factories are nearing the end of pre holiday stocking, with sporadic small orders and moderate stocking. The overall market remains relatively calm. As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic logistics are also gradually shutting down. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly continue to operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

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Insufficient cost support. In January, the price of calcium carbide decreased by 0.55%

The price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased, with insufficient cost support and weakened downstream demand. In January, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased, with the price dropping from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.55%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 21.40% year-on-year.

 

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly decreased in January.

 

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

 

In January, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal dropped significantly, with a price of around 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal is stable but weak, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient.

 

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

 

In January, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The enthusiasm for PVC market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. The market price has dropped from 5638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5590 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.85%, and the end of month price has decreased by 12.72% year-on-year. The domestic market for 1,4-butanediol has remained stable with a downward trend, with rigid contract trading and light spot trading. The market price of 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9535.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9421.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.39% year-on-year. The downstream market of calcium carbide is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

 

Looking ahead, in mid to early February, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early February, with consolidation being the main trend.

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The vitamin market was relatively strong in January

Price trend

 

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, there was a turning point in the domestic vitamin market in January, with some vitamin products starting to stop falling and rise, and the market atmosphere improved.

 

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the price of vitamin C in January was 19.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month, 20.67 yuan/kg on the 30th, with a monthly increase of 6.93%. The vitamin C market is supported by improved demand, with a better trading atmosphere on the exchange, an increase in inquiries, and some traders suspending their reports, resulting in an overall improvement in supply and demand.

 

In January, the price of vitamin A stopped falling and rose, with an average price of 75 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 77 yuan/kg at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.64%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 80-85 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 19-20.5 euros/kg. The price increase of vitamin A in Europe has boosted market confidence with positive news, active inquiries on the market, and manufacturers actively pushing up prices. The downstream acceptance level is still acceptable.

 

In January, the price of vitamin E stopped falling and rose, with the mainstream market price around 65-70 yuan/kg. The European market quotation is 6.8-7.2 euros per kilogram. Boosted by the rise in European quotations. The domestic price of vitamin E is rising along with the trend. There have been many maintenance plans in China recently, and the supply side is favorable, which has provided some support for the price increase.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believe that the current positive news in the vitamin market is exhausted, and as spring approaches, downstream stocking behavior may occur. We will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production in the future.

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The phosphoric acid market in January initially suppressed and then rose (1.1-1.29)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton. On January 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6430 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 2.28%.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 6450 yuan/ton, and on January 29th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6366 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price fell by 1.29%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of phosphoric acid in the market fell first and then rose this month. In the first half of January, the market price of phosphoric acid continued to decline. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market continues to be sluggish, with fewer inquiries and relatively quiet transactions. Phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors have lowered prices for shipments, leading to bearish sentiment in the market. In the second half of January, the price of phosphoric acid in the market increased. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is strong, and there is support for the cost of phosphoric acid. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand users are actively purchasing, but overall market demand remains weak. As of January 29th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5950-6700 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6000-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 5450-6950 yuan/ton.

 

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market rose in January, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still acceptable. In the first ten days, the downstream market situation was average, and traders and downstream buyers had average enthusiasm for purchasing. Downstream procurement was more cautious and more wait-and-see. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market was on the rise, and the overall market trading situation was relatively active. Downstream stocking was active towards the end of the year. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market remained relatively stable, with manufacturers mainly placing early orders and completing the year-end stocking. The downstream market just needed a small amount of replenishment. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

 

Market for raw material phosphate rock. After the domestic phosphate ore market rose this month, it remained stable in operation. In early January, some mining companies in China began to implement new ore prices. Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi regions have raised the prices of medium to high-grade phosphate ore by about 20-50 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of phosphate ore in the field is still tight, and downstream demand for phosphate ore is mainly for rigid procurement. As of January 29th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1056 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has slightly increased. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is strong, and the cost is still supported. Downstream urgent replenishment before the holiday, some phosphoric acid manufacturers have stopped production, resulting in a decrease in market supply. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will experience a slight increase.

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