According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 1st to 17th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2250 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.24% during the period, a month on month increase of 6.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.90%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.
Specifically, in terms of imported goods, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, and there are reports that most of Iran’s methanol plants have been shut down, which may have a significant impact on the arrival of goods at ports in the later stage. The futures market has risen sharply, and spot prices have also risen accordingly. In the short term, the external quotation of methanol at ports has increased significantly. However, downstream buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and only low-priced goods are traded smoothly. At present, although geopolitical factors have boosted market sentiment, the continued rise in methanol prices has been suppressed due to the high inventory of large traders and poor downstream acceptance of high prices.
In terms of production enterprises, there are slight differences between regions. In the northwest region of the main production area, with the boost of raw coal prices, active replenishment by traders, and support from olefin external mining, manufacturers’ bidding prices have risen and transactions have been good. Driven by sudden equipment failures of some manufacturers in Shandong region, prices of other manufacturers have also increased. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of sustained macroeconomic favorable conditions, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic market has further improved, driving a significant increase in pending orders from enterprises compared to the previous period.
In terms of external market, from May 30th to June 16th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.50-322.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, there is expected to be a reduction in imported methanol, and downstream industries will face increased production costs due to the rise in methanol market prices, which will suppress downstream demand and production under the situation of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the port arrival situation, fundamental impacts, and macro factors. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate at a high level.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |