On January 30th, precious metal prices experienced a significant drop
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 30, 2026, the morning market price of gold spot was 1199.84 yuan/gram, a decrease of 3.5% from the market price of 1243.4 yuan/gram on January 29.
On January 30, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1160.68 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; The benchmark price in the early session was 1179.31 yuan/gram, a decrease of 18.63 yuan/gram (-1.58%), and a decrease of 87.54 yuan/gram (-7.01%) from the benchmark price of 1248.22 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day (1.29).
In terms of futures, the market continued to decline significantly on the night of the 30th, with the main Shanghai gold contract opening at 1143.64 yuan/gram and closing at 1072.72 yuan/gram, a sharp drop of 10.16% from the settlement price of 1194.06 yuan/gram on the 30th.
On January 30, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Silver (silver ingots with a standard weight of 15 kilograms and a purity of not less than 99.99%, pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 27980 yuan/kg at noon, a decrease of 1505 yuan/kg (-5.10%) from the earlier benchmark price of 29485 yuan/kg; Compared to the benchmark price of 30300 yuan/kg in the afternoon session of the previous trading day (1.29), it has decreased by 2320 yuan/kg (-7.66%).
In terms of futures:
On the night of January 30, 2026, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 25960 yuan/kg and closed at 24832 yuan/kg, a sharp drop of 17.00% (limit down) from the settlement price of 29919 yuan/kg on the 30th.
Reasons for the sharp decline of precious metals on January 30, 2026
The sharp decline in precious metals on January 30, 2026 was a resonance result of the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations shifting, the nomination of a hawkish chairman, previous profit taking, leverage trampling, and liquidity shocks. Silver, due to its small size and weak liquidity, experienced a significant decline compared to gold. Here are the specific reasons:
1. Pricing logic collapse: Federal Reserve policy expectation reversal
On January 29th, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, sending a hawkish signal of “longer high interest rates and lower than expected rate cuts”, breaking the market’s previous aggressive expectation of a “50-75bp annual rate cut”.
On January 30th, Trump nominated hawkish former director Kevin Walsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. The market traded according to “hawkish Walsh”, and the US dollar index rebounded (up 0.93% on the day). The attractiveness of precious metals denominated in US dollars plummeted, forming a seesaw effect of “strong US dollar, weak gold and silver”.
The real interest rate of the US 10-year treasury bond rose by 12bp to 1.25%, significantly increasing the cost of holding gold and disrupting the core logic of the rise of precious metals.
2. Profit taking after the initial surge: high valuation correction
Since January, gold has risen from around $4300 to $5600, with a monthly increase of over 30%; Silver has risen nearly 70% this month, and technical indicators are severely overbought (RSI once exceeded 80), indicating a strong demand for technical correction in the market. Institutions and speculative funds concentrated their profits at historical highs, triggering large-scale selling and becoming the initial driving force for the sharp decline.
3. Speculative market volatility amplification: leverage trampling and margin increase
CME、 Recently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange have raised the margin ratio for precious metal contracts (such as CME gold margin to about 6% of nominal value), causing a sharp increase in financial pressure for high leverage investors. The price drop triggers stop loss and additional margin, forming a vicious cycle of “closing and selling – price drop – passive closing”. Programmatic trading further amplifies volatility, and silver has a more significant stampede effect due to low liquidity.
4. Liquidity and market structure fragility
The silver market is small in size and highly speculative, with tight deliverable inventory at high levels (about 70% of the London Stock Exchange’s silver inventory is locked in by ETFs), making it prone to extreme trends of “short selling followed by reversal”.
The rapid increase in the early stage has led to market sentiment sensitivity, and high valuations lacking fundamental support are prone to panic selling under the impact of news.
In the short term, high leverage positions continue to clear, with significant volatility, and the spot price of precious metals is highly likely to experience a significant pullback along with futures prices; Silver may continue to fluctuate higher than gold due to liquidity and inventory issues. Mid term focus on the Senate approval of Walsh’s nomination, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s March interest rate, with policy expectations remaining the core variables.
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