price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and rose at the end of January, with most spot prices of various brands increasing. As of January 27th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 13100 yuan/ton, with a price level fluctuation of -0.76% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the second half of January, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable with small fluctuations. The second line of Zhejiang Petrochemical was restarted on January 23, and the overall average operating rate of the industry has recovered to over 81%, with a weekly average production of over 65000 tons. Due to the digestion of social inventory in the middle of the month, the production and sales pressure of the aggregation factory is still acceptable. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is average.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market showed a significant upward trend at the end of January. At the beginning of the month, supply contracted and demand margins improved. The current upward trend of phenol acetone continues, with strengthened cost support. Under the combination of multiple favorable factors, market prices have steadily risen, and traders have a strong sentiment of supporting prices. The trading atmosphere in the market has significantly rebounded. Improved support for PC costs.
On the demand side: Although the improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, the load position of PC downstream factories is still not ideal. The centralized delivery of early contract orders has gradually ended, easing the tight supply situation in some areas. Under the cover of joint efforts by aggregation factories to raise prices, businesses have increased their operations of offering discounts and selling goods. But after the price increase, buyers are cautious in stocking up and have a weak willingness to build warehouses before the holiday. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of January, the domestic PC market saw an increase. The overall trend of upstream bisphenol A remains positive, and the cost value can still provide support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable with small fluctuations, and there is a trend of relaxed supply in the future. The trading atmosphere in the market has returned to cautious, and it is expected that there may be a possibility of consolidation in the PC market in the short term.
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