As of April 30, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan or 10.51% from April 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In April, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of n-butanol quickly rose, reaching a high point of 8933 yuan/ton for the month. However, due to insufficient support, the high price was short-lived, and the center of gravity of n-butanol gradually declined, falling to a low point at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The trend of n-butanol prices rising and falling in April is essentially a direct reflection of the rapid shift from tight balance to loose supply and demand pattern. The following is a phased breakdown of the impact of supply and demand:
Early April (1-8): Tight supply+rigid demand support, price surge
Supply side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side of n-butanol showed a phase of contraction, with low market inventory, multiple domestic units undergoing maintenance or operating at low loads, low industry operating rates, and limited market spot circulation. Due to the support of export orders from some mainstream factories, the domestic sales source has further decreased, and the factory inventory is at a low level, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices.
On the demand side: the market is expected to stock up during peak seasons, downstream stocks will be replenished at low prices, and the market will increase volume in response to temporary demand. Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and acrylic esters are expected to experience the “Silver Four” peak season, coupled with low prices at the beginning of the month. Downstream enterprises are concentrated in buying inventory at low prices, resulting in active market inquiries and transactions.
Mid to late April (9-30): The supply-demand contradiction becomes apparent
Supply side: The n-butanol maintenance unit has resumed production, and the overall supply pressure in the market has rebounded. The devices that underwent early maintenance have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rapidly rebounded. The market supply of goods has increased, and the tight supply pattern in the early stage has begun to ease. Some new devices are expected to be put into operation, and the market is increasingly concerned about the increase in supply in the later stage.
Demand side: Short term demand ends, downstream procurement pace slows down. After a brief increase in downstream demand for “gold, silver, and four” materials, the demand for raw materials in industries such as plasticizers and coatings slowed down, and large-scale inventory replenishment behavior decreased. In addition, with price increases, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials began to emerge.
Future forecast
Supply and demand direction analysis
In April, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The trend of the market is essentially a manifestation of the supply recovery speed far exceeding the demand recovery speed. Downstream demand lacks incremental growth overall, and it is difficult for essential procurement to digest new supply. The market has entered a downward channel of “strong supply and weak demand”.
Entering May, it is expected that the market will experience a range adjustment, and whether the demand side can steadily release it still needs to be monitored.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |