In April, the overall performance of the domestic acetone market showed a clear trend of “first suppression and then rebound”, with price trends divided into three stages: high-level decline, continuous downward exploration, and bottoming out rebound. The core driving logic gradually shifted from the dual suppression of weak costs and weak demand in the early stage to a coordinated force pattern of supply contraction, cost recovery, and demand improvement. Market sentiment also gradually shifted from cautious observation before the holiday to stabilization and improvement.
Downward phase (mid to high): Triple bearish pressure, prices continue to decline
-Loose cost support: The international crude oil price correction has driven a significant decline in upstream pure benzene prices. As the core raw material for acetone production, the decline in pure benzene prices has directly weakened the cost support for phenol ketone production, and production enterprises have insufficient ability to support prices, becoming the core incentive for price decline. At the same time, the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry remains high, and the supply is relatively abundant, further exacerbating the pressure on the cost side.
-Continued weak demand: The overall production of downstream industries is insufficient, with sluggish demand in the main downstream MMA and bisphenol A industries, and poor transmission of demand in the end market. The MMA industry has been dragged down by demand from the terminal coatings and plastics industries, resulting in a decline in operating rates and a reduction in procurement volume; Although the bisphenol A industry maintains a certain operating rate, the recovery of the terminal real estate and home appliance industries is weak, and the inventory of finished products in enterprises is high. The willingness to purchase acetone is not strong, and the market presents a situation of “price but no market”. The demand side cannot form effective support.
-Market mentality cautious: Prior to the May Day Labor Day holiday, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among businesses, and traders mainly focused on shipping to avoid the risk of price drops after the holiday. There was a large bargaining space for actual orders, and overall market trading was weak; Downstream enterprises adopt a strategy of “purchasing as needed and taking as needed”, unwilling to replenish inventory in bulk, further dragging down market prices.
（2） Rebound stage (late stage): Triple positive synergy, price bottoming out and rebounding
-Supply side contraction: Multiple sets of phenol ketone units are undergoing centralized maintenance or load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the total supply of acetone in China and a 2.5 percentage point decrease in the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry; At the same time, there is insufficient supply of imported goods, and the import volume in April has significantly decreased compared to March. Port inventory continues to deplete, and spot circulation is tight. The supply-demand pattern is gradually improving, laying a solid foundation for price rebound.
-Cost side rebound: International crude oil prices have rebounded slightly, driving domestic pure benzene prices to stabilize and gradually rebound. The supporting role of phenol ketone production costs has become more prominent, and production enterprises have increased their willingness to raise prices, leading to a linked rise in market quotations.
-Marginal improvement in demand: The downstream bisphenol A and MMA industries have entered a rigid replenishment cycle, with a slight release of terminal procurement demand; At the same time, traders and production enterprises joined forces to raise prices, and market sentiment gradually improved. Some downstream enterprises were concerned about the continued rise in prices and began to replenish inventory in small quantities, further boosting price recovery.
From the perspective of Business Society, the acetone market is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term (early May), with continued supply and maintenance, supported costs, and downstream demand for replenishment; Price attention should be focused on breaking through the range of 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and if demand is insufficient, it should return to 7200-7500 yuan/ton for consolidation. Long term attention should be paid to equipment maintenance, pure benzene trends, and terminal demand.
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