This week, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown a typical pattern of “upward pressure, downward support”, with overall prices remaining stable, but the internal supply-demand game is very intense. This’ stability ‘is not a prosperity brought about by strong demand, but a relatively fragile balance formed between the cost line and the demand ceiling. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6166.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.
1. Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene has recently seen a slight increase, which directly drives up the production cost of acrylic acid. In this situation, the profit margin of manufacturers is compressed, and their willingness to sell at a lower price is extremely low. The strong price of propylene has built a solid bottom for the acrylic acid market, effectively reducing the potential for significant price drops. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6038.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
2. Supply side:
The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a moderate level (about 75%). Although some equipment maintenance was completed and production resumed in the early stage, the overall supply pressure was not affected.
This controllable supply situation has given manufacturers some confidence in raising prices. They tend to maintain stable quotes and even tentatively push up slightly, which is an important foundation for the market to remain stable.
3. Demand side:
Despite having bottom support, the market lacks the drive to break through upwards, and the core bottleneck lies in the demand side. Downstream industries (such as adhesives, coatings, etc.) generally adopt a cautious attitude, with a procurement model mainly based on “on-demand procurement” and no large-scale hoarding behavior.
With the decrease in temperature in northern regions, construction sites have decreased, further weakening the demand for acrylic esters related to building materials. Weak demand cannot provide any effective impetus for price increases.
Both buyers and sellers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The demand side does not believe that prices will rise sharply, so they are not in a hurry to chase after them; The supplier also knows that demand is limited, and a significant price increase will suppress shipments.
This mentality leads to a flat overall trading atmosphere in the market, making it difficult to form a unilateral upward trend.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a stage of intense competition between “cost driven” and “demand reality”. The cost side (propylene price increase) is like an invisible hand, supporting the market from below. The demand side (weak consumption) is like a ceiling, suppressing the upward space of prices. The result is that market prices are locked in a narrow range, forming a situation of “stable operation”. It is expected that this volatile consolidation pattern will continue in the short term. The future direction of the market needs to focus on the changing trend of upstream propylene prices and whether there are any unexpected recovery signals in downstream demand.
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