According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber fluctuated downward in September. As of September 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% from the beginning of the month.
The crude oil market was affected by both long and short factors, with prices fluctuating widely in September. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.72 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.22 per barrel. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts benefiting the international oil market and the crude oil market. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices.
After a continuous decline in the domestic PTA market in September, the bottom has recovered. As of the end of September, the average market price in East China was 4612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01% from the beginning of the month. Worried about the continued increase in crude oil production, the expected increase in PTA supply, and weak demand, the main reason for the decline was in mid to early September. At the end of the month, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered potential supply risks. Crude oil rebounded, the supply and demand of downstream pre festival stock improved, and PTA prices recovered slightly from low levels. In September, PTA plant maintenance and restart coexisted. Currently, the operating load of the PTA industry is around 77%, and the supply of plants has changed significantly. However, the overall spot supply is still loose, and social inventory has accumulated slightly. There are some equipment maintenance plans in October, but 3 million tons of new equipment will be put into operation as scheduled, further increasing market supply pressure.
At present, we are in the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October”, but downstream yarn factories have not seen the expected significant rebound in demand, mainly for essential purchases. The overall market performance is flat, and the support for upstream raw materials is relatively limited. Terminal orders have moderately rebounded, but the order volume is average and constrained by high inventory levels. Therefore, caution is exercised in raw material procurement, with a focus on small batches. At the end of the month, due to the impact of the pre holiday period, some downstream yarn factories have made up a small amount of inventory, but the sustainability is insufficient.
Business analysts believe that the continuous deployment of new PTA production capacity has intensified market concerns about oversupply, with weak support on the cost side. Downstream enterprises’ inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday has basically ended, and the market lacks clear positive guidance. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will be weak in October.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |