According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has shown a slight fluctuation trend recently. As of October 10th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 73166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 71366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% month on month and 9.13% year-on-year.
Supply side: Reduced disturbance at the mining end
In July, there was a notice from the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City, Jiangxi Province in the industry. The notice requires eight local lithium mining enterprises to complete the preparation of a verification report on the change of mineral types and reserves before September 30th, and scientifically and reasonably determine the main mineral types for mining. Affected by this news, the spot price of lithium carbonate soared from 60000 to 80000, but the market cooled down rationally and returned to around 70000. Recently, it has been reported that all eight lithium mining companies have submitted their verification reports for changes in mineral types and reserves. The impact of mining on supply has weakened.
Demand side: Energy storage dominates incremental growth, highlighting demand resilience
Energy storage has become the core engine of demand in October, and the delivery cycle of orders from top energy storage battery companies (such as CATL and BYD) has been extended to 45 days. The production rate in September remains above 95%, and the output of positive electrode material factories is expected to continue the month on month upward trend.
The demand for power batteries is steadily improving
The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the market was 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, with a penetration rate of 53.3%. Although the reduction of subsidies in Europe and the United States has slowed down the growth rate of export orders, the demand in the domestic market during peak seasons has supported a steady increase in the installed capacity of power batteries, and demand resilience still exists.
Inventory is still at a high level
As of the end of September, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 136800 tons, including 33500 tons of upstream inventory, 60900 tons of downstream inventory, and 42400 tons of inventory in other links. The suppressive effect of high inventory on prices has not completely subsided, and the supply and demand increment in October may turn into accumulated inventory, restricting the upward space of prices.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the lithium carbonate market in October will be in a balanced state of “improvement in supply and demand margins” and “suppression of high inventory”, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Specific changes in the market still need to be monitored.
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