The market for butadiene rubber in October was weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 11670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Since October, some units have restarted and domestic butadiene production has rebounded. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a significant decrease in raw material butadiene prices and a significant shift in the cost center of butadiene rubber; In addition, the start of production of butadiene rubber in October first increased and then decreased, and the pressure on the supply side gradually eased; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Under the comprehensive influence, the price of butadiene rubber weakened and decreased in October. As of October 30th, the mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were reported at 11050-11300 yuan/ton.
The price of butadiene weakened significantly in October, dragging down the market for butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of butadiene was 7516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.42% from 8886 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In mid to late October, domestic companies such as Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, Yangtze Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical successively shut down their Shunding units for maintenance, resulting in a significant decrease in Shunding rubber production; In addition, there are maintenance plans for the Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials in November.
Demand side: In October, there was a slight increase in downstream semi steel tire production, which provided strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of October 24th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has started at around 7.4%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.60%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the abundant supply of raw material butadiene is mainly due to weak market conditions, with slight fluctuations in downstream tire production. In November, some Shunding units still have plans to shut down for maintenance. Overall, it is expected that Shunding rubber will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.
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