According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market experienced slight fluctuations and a downward trend in December. As of December 14th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4639 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from the beginning of the month.
The recent supply side risks of crude oil have not been eliminated, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions still support oil prices. However, there has been no improvement in crude oil demand, and overall, international oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.28 per barrel. After a short shutdown, some PX units were restarted and the oil adjustment atmosphere cooled down, but the subsequent increase in PX unit maintenance has reduced the expected start-up, providing strong bottom support.
In terms of its own supply, PTA currently has no plans to adjust its new facilities. Some of the facilities that were shut down in November have not yet been restarted, such as the 2.2 million ton plant in Yisheng Ningbo that was shut down on November 20th; Dushan Energy’s 2.5 million ton facility will shut down on November 5th; The Zhuhai BP 1.1 million ton plant will be shut down on November 6th. The supply remains stable, and the overall industry operating rate is around 73%.
The downstream polyester factory equipment has not changed much, maintaining a high operating rate of around 86%. Since December, the trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market has been quite quiet, with factory inventory continuing to grow and shipping intentions increasing. The enthusiasm of terminal weaving enterprises for raw material procurement has decreased, and there has been no concentrated large-scale replenishment.
Business analysts believe that as Christmas approaches, a seasonal rebound in demand may provide support for oil prices. Downstream polyester factories may be scheduled for early holidays, and there is an expectation of a decline in weaving start-up rates in the future. At present, the expectation of accumulated inventory is still high, and it is expected that PTA prices will show a fluctuating downward trend.
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