According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated slightly from December 1 to December 15, 2025. On December 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5330 yuan/ton, and on December 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The domestic toluene market has fluctuated and fallen in this cycle. There is not much change in the supply side, and the overall supply is relatively stable. The demand side still needs to replenish inventory according to demand, and the demand for oil and chemical industries is stable. The aromatic hydrocarbon market has recently weakened, and the spot market has been under pressure with a narrow range of downward fluctuations. Last weekend, spot prices in Shandong region experienced a slight fluctuation and fell, and the market atmosphere was relatively weak.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $61.12 per barrel. The crude oil price market first fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation eased slightly, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue dragged down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a low international oil price market. In the later stage, OPEC+oil producing countries postponed production increases, and the geopolitical peace agreement was unlikely to be reached. Geopolitical factors led to an upward trend in crude oil prices.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of December 12th, East China Company quoted 5250 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5150-5200 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5250 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On December 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7200 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of December 12th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were 805-807 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 830-832 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The overall pressure on the supply side of the toluene market is controllable, but there was a slight fluctuation and decline in spot prices in Shandong over the weekend. Coupled with the lack of substantial bullish factors in the intraday market, the trading atmosphere in the market tends to be cautious. Overall, the prices of toluene and xylene are likely to be under pressure in the short term, but their downward potential is expected to be limited by the support of costs.
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