According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (10.27-10.31), with an average market price of 283510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 284350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.30%.
Recently, the fundamentals of tin prices have remained relatively stable, and their trend is more determined by domestic and international macroeconomic expectations. Especially during periods of concentrated macroeconomic favorable factors, tin prices have shown a relatively strong performance.
Against the backdrop of sustained supply side constraints and widening supply-demand gaps, it is expected that tin prices will exhibit a strong upward trend of oscillation. However, given that the current tin price is already relatively high, the consumer response may limit its further upward potential.
At the mining end, the progress of resuming production in Myanmar’s mines is slow, and it is expected that significant recovery will not be achieved within this year, so the supply of imported minerals is still limited. In the refining process, with the completion of the smelting plant maintenance work in October, the operating rate in Yunnan region has significantly increased, and it is expected that the production will show a significant increase. However, due to the adjustment of Indonesia’s RKAB approval system, the export speed of Indonesia will slow down, which may lead to certain restrictions on China’s import volume from Indonesia. Overall, the supply side is still in a tight state.
On the demand side, the growth rate of domestic refined tin consumption has significantly slowed down since the second half of the year. At the same time, due to the high level of tin prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises has decreased, and the overall performance of the consumer side is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand. We need to pay attention to whether there will be any improvement in the year-end consumer end due to the impulse effect.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the fundamentals of tin prices have remained stable overall, and their price fluctuations are more influenced by domestic and international macroeconomic expectations. Especially during periods when macroeconomic favorable factors are concentrated, tin prices tend to show a relatively strong trend. Based on this prediction, tin prices may continue to fluctuate and remain strong in the future.
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