According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in September 2025, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated downward, with an average price of 184000 yuan/ton on September 1 and 175000 yuan/ton on September 28, a cumulative decline of 4.89%.
Supply side: tight supply of antimony ore
From the above chart, it can be seen that the overall import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China from January to August 2025 is lower than that in 2024. The import volume of antimony ore and concentrate from January to August 2025 was 24449.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.1%. The highest import volume in January 2025 was 4543 tons, and the lowest import volume in March 2025 was 1483 tons. The overall import volume is lower than the same period last year, and the overall supply of antimony ore in China is still tight.
According to customs statistics, the import volume of antimony ore sand and concentrate in China in August 2025 was 4376.9 tons, an increase of 89.7% month on month and a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year.
Demand side: Weak expectations for terminal consumption
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Due to the high raw material prices, the inventory of antimony oxide has remained relatively high recently, and the export performance is average. The overall market sentiment is weak. Although there is some stocking demand near the holiday, the overall demand is rigid and the purchase volume is low. Due to the lack of market confidence, the antimony oxide market as a whole declined in September, with a downward adjustment of about 12500 yuan/ton.
Photovoltaics: With the continuous rise in raw material prices, under cost pressure, some photovoltaic enterprises are currently reducing production, and the overall procurement of raw materials is biased towards rigid demand. As the holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises are suspending production and taking a break, further weakening the demand for raw materials.
Outlook for the future: Poor performance on the demand side is the main reason for the weakening of the antimony ingot market. Overall, there is no significant change in terminal demand at present, and it still maintains a strong demand. It is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term. The future market needs to focus on the actual impact of the new regulations on the import of antimony raw materials implemented from September 1st on the market.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7355 yuan/ton on September 22 and 7345 yuan/ton on September 26, a decrease of 0.14%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9576 yuan/ton on September 22, and an average price of 9556 yuan/ton on September 26, a decrease of 0.21%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7975 yuan/ton on September 22, and an average price of 7912 yuan/ton on September 26, a decrease of 0.78%.
Polyethylene has been running weakly this week, with a narrow price reduction. The polyethylene market has sufficient supply. On the demand side, with the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival approaching, there are expectations for downstream stocking, but there is insufficient follow-up on new orders, resulting in lower than expected demand growth and limited support for the polyethylene market. Merchants actively reduce inventory, but downstream customers have limited willingness to receive goods, resulting in a weak downward trend in polyethylene prices. On the cost side, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered potential supply risks. In addition, the decline of the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory and the rise of international oil prices supported the polyethylene market to some extent on the cost side.
Polyethylene supply is sufficient, but the peak demand season is not as expected. Downstream factories have a slow increase in operating load, and procurement is cautious. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate in a narrow range of fluctuations.

After September, the production of domestic phenol ketone plants dropped to a level of 65%, which boosted the willingness of holders to ship at low prices. However, port inventory accumulation was obvious, and spot goods were still abundant. After a brief upward trend, the market fell again, with limited overall decline. As of now, the acetone market in East China is deadlocked between 4500-4550 yuan/ton, and the phenol market in East China is at 6900-6950 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton (to be increased after the holiday).
Market Trends of Phenol and Acetone in East China
In the first quarter of 2025, Shandong Province added 250000 tons of phenol ketone production capacity, and in the third quarter, Zhenhai added 650000 tons of phenol ketone equipment. In September, the domestic phenol ketone production capacity base increased to 10.8 million tons.
In July, there were 10 sets of phenol ketone maintenance units in China, with a total production capacity of 3.02 million tons per year and a loss of 143000 tons. Eight sets of phenol ketone units were inspected in August, with a total production capacity of 2.12 million tons per year and a loss of around 130000 tons. The parking loss in September increased month on month.
By the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2025, the phenol ketone industry is expected to add 2 sets of production facilities with a total capacity of 650000 tons, mainly concentrated in the Northeast and North China regions. It is expected that the overall supply of phenol ketone will show an increasing trend in the fourth quarter, with a month on month growth of 9%, and is expected to reach 2.26 million tons. There is uncertainty in the production time of the new device, and the specific production time shall prevail. Further follow-up is needed.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 24, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5916 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as September 13. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6100 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%.
The Golden Nine Effect is not reflected in the downward trend of Shandong n-butanol market
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed a fluctuating downward trend. In early September, the n-butanol market gradually declined, and the focus of market negotiations shifted towards lower levels. On September 12th, n-butanol fell to the lowest point of the month, with a price reference of 5916 yuan/ton. In mid September, there was little change in the market situation of n-butanol, and the fundamentals remained calm. The market entered a stable consolidation operation. In late September, the n-butanol market experienced a narrow correction, with a slight upward adjustment of 50 yuan/ton in the middle of the month. As of September 24th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 5900-6000 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
Supply side: Supply under pressure, shipment positive, market downturn
In September, the overall supply side of the n-butanol market in Shandong was relatively loose, and there was a certain supply pressure on the supply side. Some factories and suppliers actively shipped to maintain low inventory, but the supply side provided poor market support.
On the demand side: Downstream demand is cautious, and pre holiday stocking falls short of expectations
In early September, downstream demand for n-butanol showed caution, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. The support from the demand side for n-butanol was weak, and as the end of the month approached, downstream users stocked up on a small scale before the holiday. Low level transactions of n-butanol improved, and the market situation slightly rose. Throughout September, the overall demand performance still fell short of expectations.
Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, with downstream users stocking up at low prices and still having a certain wait-and-see attitude towards high prices. The overall market situation is stable, and the n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. Specific attention needs to be paid to pre holiday market shipments and downstream stocking situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as the end of September approaches, the domestic PP market is maintaining a weak and consolidated operation, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of September 23rd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 6961.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04% compared to the price level at the beginning of September.
In terms of raw materials:
Since September, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has remained relaxed, and market concerns about crude oil supply have decreased. At the same time, the OPEC+production increase strategy has continued to this day, coupled with a temporary decline in global demand and low fluctuations in international oil prices. In the early stage of propylene, the boost from Haiwei’s maintenance was exhausted, and there was sufficient supply of goods on site. The upward resistance in the market increased, and the price turned from high to low. Seasonal consumption of propane is on the rise, with prices remaining firm. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have fluctuated, providing average cost support.
Supply side:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises has increased narrowly. As of press time, the overall load level of the domestic industry has been raised to around 76%, and the weekly average total output is around 770000 tons. The trend of loose supply in the future is clear, which severely limits the support from the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level is significantly controllable at a high level of 800000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side has poor support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
September is in the traditional peak season for polypropylene, and materials used in fields such as plastic weaving and agriculture have improved to a certain extent. There is also an increase in new orders in the field of packaging film materials, and the market momentum continues to rise. However, the positive trend of improved trading atmosphere in the current market has been smoothed out by many negative factors. In addition, downstream enterprises have a low workload and many National Day holidays are arranged, resulting in slow overall digestion, which has led to the failure of PP peak season consumption start-up and weak support for the demand side.
Future forecast
As September approaches the end of the month, the domestic PP market prices are still running weakly. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is also weak, and the overall support for PP is insufficient. The industry load is expected to remain high with a narrow adjustment, and there are expectations of loose supply in the future. Although there has been an improvement in consumption, the market is being dragged by the cost and supply sides. There is no obvious peak season feature in the current market, and there is resistance to the PP upward trend. It is expected that the game may continue to consolidate the market.