1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the price of domestic TDI market was consolidated in June. At the beginning of the month, the average ex factory price of domestic TDI was about 10566.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic TDI was about 11166.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 600 yuan / ton or 5.68%, and a decrease of 21.28% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market conditions

This month, the domestic TDI market prices rose as a whole. In the early stage, the reduction of the factory’s offer led to the spread of bearish sentiment. The downstream spot purchase intention was weak, and the current atmosphere was still empty. Under the influence of shipping mentality, the offer price of domestic goods with bill of lading in East China market dropped to less than 10000 yuan. In the later stage, the supplier’s export orders were better, the inventory was not under pressure, and the good news continued. The market was strong, and the atmosphere was improved Warm, business offers remain high. As of the 31st day, the quotations of domestic goods with bills of lading in East China, Shanghai, South China and Shanghai were 11200-11500 yuan / T and 11400-11600 yuan / T, 11200-11500 yuan / T, 11400-11600 yuan / T, 11200-11500 yuan / T, 11400-11600 yuan / T, 11200-11500 yuan / T, 11400-11600 yuan / t, respectively Reference 11600 yuan / ton.

In this month, the price of nitric acid in the upstream of TDI was stable and upward. By the end of the month, the market price was 1533.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.75% compared with 1450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The market demand was weak and stable, the manufacturers adjusted flexibly, and the market was stable in the later stage or temporarily. In terms of upstream toluene, the domestic market was weak, the demand for toluene declined, and the market trading was not active. At present, the dealer quotation in East China was roughly At about 3400 yuan / ton, the port inventory is high, and the progress of de stocking is slow. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the Data Engineer of the business agency, the current trend of the TDI market is relatively strong, the good news from the factory is released, the dealers tend to be cautious, the offer remains high, and the downstream companies maintain the just needed purchase. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue the strong trend and wait for the downstream to continue to follow up.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

The market price of propylene oxide rose slightly on July 30. As of July 30, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 11100 yuan / ton, up 0.91% compared with the previous trading day, and 10.63% higher than that on June 30 (10033.33 yuan / ton). At present, the price of raw material propylene has been raised, the new order of the factory has been followed up fairly well, the enterprise’s offer has risen, the middle and lower reaches just need to replenish their positions, and there is a strong sense of resistance to high price raw materials, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

Regional July 29 July 30 remarks

RMB 10750-10900 / T and RMB 10850-11000 / T in Shandong

RMB 11100-11200 / ton in East China

10700-10800 yuan / ton in South China

Upstream propylene, on July 30, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise slightly. According to the price chart of the business agency, the market turnover on the 30th was between 6720 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6750 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, shipment is smooth, crude oil prices slightly upward, the overall downstream market operating rate is acceptable, butanol and propylene are relatively ideal. At present, the propylene market price continues to rise and has not reached the upper limit. The market atmosphere is improved and the purchasing enthusiasm is fair. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 29, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month. As of July 30, the market price of downstream soft foam polyether in Shandong has risen narrowly, the price of raw material propylene oxide has increased, and the cost support has been strengthened. A small number of downstream enterprises still have to follow up, and the market atmosphere is fair.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene oxide analysts of the business club believe that the current price of raw material propylene market is rising, the cost support is strengthened, the middle and lower reaches just need to replenish the warehouse, and the new orders of the factory can be followed up. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide Market will mainly operate at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information guidance from all aspects of the market.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable in July. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2340 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 2340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 18.98% year on year.

In July, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, and the equipment of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable. In the near future, the supply of on-site goods was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the inquiry situation was general, and the market price trend was stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is generally in general, and the downstream purchase is on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry is still stopping production. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, Shandong is 2000-2100 yuan / ton, and Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose in July. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 1533.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.75%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 1750 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical industry quoted 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods are in general. The price of nitric acid market rose in July, and the price of raw material nitric acid rose, which is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains stable temporarily.

The price of domestic liquid ammonia dropped slightly in July. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3000 yuan / ton, down 2.17% from 3066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market has fallen slightly, the price in Hebei has been lower recently, and the large factories are shipping normally. The quotation is 2800-3000 yuan / ton by the end of the month. The market price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is lower, and some downstream units have been temporarily overhauled recently. The liquid ammonia in Shandong gradually accumulates and the supply continues to increase, leading to certain supply pressure for enterprises. In addition, the downstream rigid procurement is the main factor, and the seasonal off-season support for the market is insufficient. The superimposed impact on the price is obvious, and the upstream raw material liquid ammonia market price is lower, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in July is temporarily stable.

In recent years, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. However, the market price of raw material ammonium nitrate has a certain supporting role. The analysts of ammonium nitrate in business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later stage may be mainly stable.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of acrylic acid is stable. As of July 28, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7083.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday (July 21) and decreased by 8.41% compared with June 28, according to the data of business club bulk list. At present, the market of acrylic acid is stable, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / T refined acid, 99.7% content, 2020-07-28

Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, industry standard: common acid; grade: superior product / span > July 24, 2020

Jinan Yuanxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Jinan plawa Chemical Co., Ltd. 7000 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Upstream propylene, on July 28, most of the propylene market prices in Shandong remained stable. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. On the 28th, the market turnover was between 6620 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6650 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, the shipment is flat, the crude oil price is fluctuated slightly, the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, and PP futures market is obviously up. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still near the lower limit of the oscillation range. With the coming of the downstream replenishment cycle, the market atmosphere is improved and the purchasing enthusiasm is slightly increased. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will start to recover in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that most of the raw material propylene market prices are stable, the cost pressure still exists, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable and wait-and-see operation. The specific trend needs more attention to the upstream and downstream information guidance.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on July 27 was 14590 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.48% compared with the average market price of 14376.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), 0.25% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) of 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 29.84%.

In July, the price of aluminum ingot once jumped to 15343.33 yuan / ton, the peak value of the year (July 13), and then the price continued to fall. On July 17, the price of aluminum ingot fell to 14380 yuan / ton. Recently, it stopped falling and stabilized and rose slightly.

Supply and demand booming, social inventory continued to move down

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June 2020, China’s original aluminum output was 17.889 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the output of aluminum products was 26.458 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to move down, from a high level of 1.67 million tons to a level of less than 800 thousand tons.

In the second half of the year, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places is expected to be relatively large. According to statistics, the newly added equipment capacity in the above areas will be about 3 million tons in 2020, and the market supply pressure will increase. On the demand side, consumption scenarios such as real estate industry, automobile consumption, cable and other consumption scenarios are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. With the continuous promotion of domestic internal circulation, aluminum consumption is strong 。

Future forecast

At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum has basically stabilized, and it is expected that the maintenance of stability will be stronger in the near future.