1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of toluene continued to rise after the festival. The price of toluene was 4787.5 yuan / ton on February 9, and 5225.25 yuan / ton on this Sunday (February 21), up 437.75 yuan / ton or 9.14% compared with that before the festival.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
2、 Analysis and comment
From February 10 to 21, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 350-600 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, affected by crude oil and cold weather in the United States, energy and chemical products rose. The domestic toluene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and the price rose strongly. Asian PX prices rose due to unscheduled shutdown of some devices and reduced supply. However, there is little change in domestic downstream units, and the demand follow-up is weak, which limits the growth of toluene. In terms of external market, the price of toluene imported from South Korea rose by 5.88% to US $666 / T on February 19, and rose by 5.31% to US $684 / T on February 12.
In terms of crude oil, during the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries declined, the inventory of refined oil decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil increased, which was favorable for oil prices. On February 12, Brent rose $2.125/barrel, or 3.47%; WTI rose $2.39/barrel, or 4.11%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable during the Spring Festival, with domestic goods of 12833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.47% over the same period last year. The domestic market is in strong operation, the supplier’s inventory is under no pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market is still the same. Coupled with the force majeure caused by the bad weather abroad, the market is going up, waiting for the guidance of the supplier’s information.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price showed an upward trend this week, with an average price of 5700 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival, and a year-on-year decline of 9.52%. The operating rate of PX in China is about 60%, and that of p-xylene unit in Asia is about 60%. During the Spring Festival, the earthquake in Japan, Vietnam a set of device shutdown, PX production was affected. In the short term, the domestic PX market continued to go to the warehouse. By the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 762-764 USD / T, FOB Korea and 780-782 USD / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Toluene market ushered in a good start, crude oil support was strong, the bulk market atmosphere was warm, and the price rose generally. But demand limits gains. Overall, toluene is expected to continue to follow the trend. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on toluene prices.