According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen three times this week (3.23-3.27), with an average market price of 341840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 354170 yuan/ton as of March 27th, an increase of 10.56%.
This week, the domestic tin market has emerged from a deep decline and hit the bottom, with a continuous rebound in a V-shaped reversal trend. The core driving force comes from the resonance of the previous oversold repair, low inventory support, marginal improvement of raw materials, downstream demand replenishment, and macroeconomic sentiment recovery. The market has shifted from a panic and sharp decline to a volatile and strong recovery.
supply side
On the cost side of raw materials: the mining margin is loose, processing fees have rebounded, and cost support has moved up. The Wa State operation in Myanmar is progressing, and production will gradually resume in late March. Exports to China have rebounded month on month, but transportation and shipments are still relatively slow. Indonesia’s tin ore and refined tin quotas for 026 are expected to be loose in supply. The resumption of production in domestic mines in Yunnan and Guangxi is slow, and the increase in output is limited.
supply side
The resumption of smelting production is slow, and the overall situation is tight for Yunnan refineries. Production will only resume at the end of March, with a 50% -60% operating rate and slow release of output. The tin inventory in the previous period was only 2130 tons (the lowest level in the past 3 years); LME tin inventory is 8720 tons, indicating a low global inventory. The circulation of goods is tight, and there are few low-priced sources of goods. Holders of goods have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand side
Traditional electronics (solder) have a low season in March, with semiconductor and PCB inventory being reduced, and purchases being made for immediate needs, small orders, and on-demand purchases. Photovoltaics, new energy, and stable demand for photovoltaic ribbon have become highlights. AI computing power, long-term positive, short-term unrealized.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term tin price maintains a strong range of fluctuations, with limited downward space and upward pressure. Focus on macro sentiment and fluctuations in the US dollar, as well as Myanmar mine shipments and domestic smelting operating rates.
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