Since May 2026, the domestic EVA market has entered a turning point, with the previous price support completely collapsing and the market entering an accelerated downward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of May 14th, the benchmark price of EVA was 12016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.21% from 12950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
After entering May, the decline in EVA has significantly increased, with companies successively lowering their ex factory prices and traders increasing their volume of discounts. In the short term, the moving average system forms a typical bearish pattern, with the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day moving averages simultaneously turning downwards, and the deviation between prices and moving averages continues to widen.
The weakening of supply and demand fundamentals is the core driving factor behind the current market downturn. From the supply side perspective, the operating rate of EVA equipment in China remains high, and the early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another. The supply of goods in the market continues to increase, and the inventory pressure of traders is gradually emerging. Some enterprises actively reduce prices and ship goods to recover funds, exacerbating the downward pressure on market prices. On the demand side, the situation continues to be weak, with downstream industries such as photovoltaics and shoe materials receiving orders that fall short of expectations. Photovoltaic film companies mainly purchase for essential needs, with low acceptance of high priced raw materials. At the same time, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and downstream companies mostly adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The market lacks large-scale replenishment support, and in the pattern of supply-demand imbalance, prices lack effective support.
From a technical perspective and market signals, the current EVA market has entered a phase of low levels. Since May, the positions of the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day cycles have all shown as “low”, with continuous oversold signals. The negative deviation of prices from the moving average has reached a temporary high, and there is a possibility of technical repair in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, the 60 day, 90 day, and annual line positions are still in the mid to high range, indicating that the current price is still in a relatively reasonable historical range and has not yet entered an absolute undervaluation level. Coupled with the lack of significant improvement in supply and demand fundamentals, the rebound momentum is expected to be relatively limited.
From early April to mid May 2026, the overall EVA spread showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and then continuing to turn negative and weaken. At the beginning of April, the average spread rapidly climbed from about 600 to a peak of about 730, and then continued to decline, approaching zero in mid April. Starting from the second half of April, the moving average officially turned negative and fluctuated downwards, falling to about -200 by mid May, with a slight rebound during this period and no change in the downward trend. Overall, the market price was relatively strong in the early stage, and the support gradually weakened. In the later stage, the price was lower than the benchmark level, and the market as a whole turned from strong to weak.
Looking ahead, there may be a slight oversold rebound in the short-term EVA market, but the rebound height may be relatively limited. On the one hand, after the current rapid decline in prices, some low-priced sources may attract downstream essential purchases, and traders may also engage in temporary price hikes, driving prices to slightly recover; On the other hand, supply side pressure still exists, downstream demand has not shown substantial recovery, and market confidence is difficult to quickly recover.
Overall, the current EVA market is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand and bearish sentiment. A short-term rebound is difficult to change the overall downward trend. The market needs to focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand fundamentals and the impact of the macro environment on downstream demand, and be alert to the risk of further price declines.
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