According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market atmosphere of domestic polymerization MDI continued to improve. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 13675 yuan / ton, which was 12.32% higher than the same period of last month and 0.50% higher than that of the same period last year.

At the beginning of the week, it was boosted by the rising listing price at the end of the month and the good news of the supplier’s device. In addition, the foreign device was favorable, and the US dollar offer was raised. The market atmosphere was better. Traders’ quotation goes up, and the focus of negotiation on real orders gradually moves up. Downstream business actively inquired, the transaction atmosphere improved. However, due to the slow consumption of social inventory in the early stage, some downstream and middlemen have inventory of low-cost goods. Seeing that the price rise is OK, the industry actively cash in and ship goods, and the market price rising momentum is suppressed. As the weekend approaches, the supplier manufacturer has no news release for the time being, and the business people’s mentality is different in the future market. However, it is understood that the main factories will still strictly control the goods next week, and the factories in Shanghai will mostly support the market.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: during the week, pure benzene in East China fell first and then rose, and the trading atmosphere turned lighter than last week. From July 31 to August 4, due to the continuous rise of port inventory and the influence of weak crude oil, the pure benzene in East China fluctuated and softened, and the spot negotiation went down to 3400-3500 yuan / T, with low-end and high-end cash withdrawn. On the 5th, Sinopec made up 100 yuan / ton due to the high external price, which had no obvious impact on the market price. However, due to the rise in crude oil, the market center of gravity followed up slightly.

Aniline: aniline market rose in the South and stabilized in the North during the week. From the aspect of raw materials, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan to 3450 yuan / ton, and the bidding price of Jinling pure benzene was 3220 yuan / ton, which was about 170 yuan / ton higher than last week. The cost side supported the aniline Market. It is reported that Tianji has shipping orders and there is no pressure on inventory. During the shutdown and maintenance of Huatai 100000 t / a aniline plant within the week, the new market supply decreased. However, due to the high inventory and the downstream rigid demand, the inventory decreased slowly, so the North China market kept stable operation. The aniline factory in East China, mainly shipping and contract orders, has little export pressure. Meanwhile, driven by the cost, the actual order rose by 100 yuan.

Downstream, spandex, the current spandex industry started around 80%, high-level operation, stable supply of goods. The cost side support is insufficient, the terminal market demand is still weak, customers purchase on demand, the actual transaction details. At present, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation in Zhejiang is 35000-36000 yuan / ton; for 30d spandex, it is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; for 40d spandex, it is 28000-28500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is detailed.

Yantai Wanhua MDI plant was shut down for maintenance; the East Cao Ruian plant has been restarted, and the supply is tight. The overall operation load of the unit is 40-50%. The downstream and some middlemen cash out and ship more goods, and the buying mood is general. Analysts of business club aggregate MDI expect that the market price of short-term aggregate MDI is stronger, and there is no decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of hydrogen peroxide began to fall since July, and the price has been falling all the way. In August, the market still did not improve, prices continued to fall. As of August 7, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the domestic market was 906 yuan / ton, down 12.82% from the price in early July.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to July in 2020, it can be seen that there are more months in which the price of hydrogen peroxide drops in the first seven months, with the decrease of more than 10% in February and April. Only in January and June, prices rose mainly, with the largest increase of more than 30% in June. After June, the price of hydrogen peroxide dropped by nearly 9% in July after June. In August, the market remained unchanged in the first week, falling more than 4%.

The terminal demand is not good, and hydrogen peroxide drops continuously

Starting from July, the market of terminal caprolactam began to decline, and the price dropped by more than 9%. The rising trend of the paper industry has come to an end, and gradually tends to be stable. In addition, caprolactam manufacturers and the paper industry have concentrated on stock preparation in June, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has gradually declined. The decrease of hydrogen peroxide purchasing volume has opened a falling market.

By the first week of August, the market of hydrogen peroxide was still weak and continued to decline, with the mainstream price falling to 900 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei Province was 860 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August; the mainstream quotation of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong Province was 880 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton lower than that in early August; the mainstream quotation of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province was 950 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business club, believes: the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is difficult to improve in the short term, and the price will continue to go down. As the current price is at a low level, it is expected that the future price drop of hydrogen peroxide will be limited.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Since late July, the melamine market has risen. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 5, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5333.33 yuan / ton, which was 5.26% higher than that on July 20 (5066.67 yuan / ton), and 4.58% higher than that on July 20. At present, the operating rate of melamine is about 60%. Enterprises are supported by early orders, and the goods are OK. The supply side is tight, and the focus of melamine market negotiation has shifted upward.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, melamine prices in some regions (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation): the price of melamine in some areas is higher than that in other regions

Regional remarks from July 20 to August 5

Ex factory quotation of RMB 5000 / T and RMB 5500 / T in Shandong

Ex factory quotation of RMB 4400 / T and RMB 4800 / T in Xinjiang

Ex factory quotation of RMB 4800 / T and RMB 5200 / T in Sichuan

Factory quotation of 4900 yuan / ton and 5300 yuan / ton in Henan Province

Upstream urea, the recent (7.20-8.5) upstream urea, Shandong market rose, during this period the rise was 5.70%. The upstream liquid ammonia has risen slightly in recent years, and the cost support is strong. Affected by the printing mark, the downstream demand is strong. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant follow up appropriately, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts in the business agency believe that the price of raw material urea has risen recently, the cost support has been strengthened, and the demand side of melamine is in general performance, but the supply side is tight, and the market atmosphere is fair. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market was weak in July, and most of the brand spot prices were significantly reduced. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 10933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

PA6 upstream caprolactam was negative in July, leading to a sharp decline in the market. According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices fell sharply in July. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on July 1 was 10400 yuan / ton, and that on July 31 was 9566 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.01%. The highest price in the month is 10400 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 9533 yuan / ton. Among them, the cost support weakened in the first and middle of July due to the continuous decline of raw material prices. In addition, sufficient supply, poor downstream demand, the overall market is weak. Although the raw materials rose in the last ten days, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the overall pressure phenomenon was limited. Caprolactam analysts believe that in the near future, the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise, the cost side is favorable, the support is strong, and the falling space is limited. The performance of downstream demand is not good, and will continue to be under pressure in the short term. It is expected that caprolactam market will rise steadily after finishing weak in August.

PA6 market in June by the overall strong support of upstream caprolactam, after the price rise, the high price of running. In the first half of July, PA6 fell with the upstream caprolactam, reaching a peak of 12200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Since then, businesses have been actively shipping to reduce the profit offer. However, the follow-up improvement of downstream factories’ orders is limited, and the operation mainly focuses on low-cost replenishment and instant use, and the strategy is inclined to small-scale procurement. Business mentality is not strong, maintain the warehouse operation, the actual trading atmosphere is weak.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in July, domestic PA6 market went down negatively, and spot prices of various brands decreased significantly. The upstream caprolactam had a significant downward trend, and the support for the cost side of PA6 was weakened. The demand of downstream slicing plants is weak, and the strategy of bargain hunting is the main strategy. The improvement of PA6 trading volume is limited. The businesses are generally short of the future market, and the operation of reducing profits and reducing the warehouse is the main operation. It is expected that PA6 market will continue the weak trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline remained in a range of fluctuation. On July 1, aniline price in Shandong was 4300-4390 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing was 4500 yuan / ton; on July 31, aniline price in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% this month.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fluctuated in the first ten days and the middle of July, and the price rose sharply in the last ten days. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month, and increased the listing price three times in the last ten days, with a total increase of 50 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton this month. At the beginning of the month, the weak market continued in June, the downstream demand was insufficient to follow up, and the port inventory remained high; coupled with the unknown public health events, the spot transaction in the market was light, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the last ten days, the external price rebounded obviously, and the enterprises made up the short at the end of the month, and the pressure of delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply. On July 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 2950-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3160 yuan / ton), and on July 31, it was 3230-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3370 yuan / ton), which was 210 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, with an increase of 6.65% this month.

From June 10 to 1450 yuan / ton, the price of nitric acid continued to stabilize, and rose to 1533.33 yuan / ton on July 22. Nitric acid rose by 5.75% in July.

In the early stage of this month, due to inventory pressure, the price of aniline was lowered to promote shipment; at the end of the month, Dongying Huatai stopped for maintenance, and the market supply decreased, which brought about a positive effect and the price increased.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, port inventory continues to be at a high level, but the current external disk is at a high level, and subsequent arrivals are expected to decrease, reducing inventory pressure and supporting the market mentality. In addition, the operating rate of downstream units may increase in the later period and some new capacity will be put into operation. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to rise in August.

The cost side is expected to continue to pick up, and the price of aniline will have a favorable support in the later stage. Pay attention to public health events abroad and the downstream operating load. The price of aniline is expected to rise in August, but the range is not large.