Domestic price trend:
From the trend chart of p-xylene, we can see that PX price has been rising all the way since 2021. As of March 1, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene is 6700 yuan / ton, which is 42.55% higher than the price of 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35%. The external price of PX has increased significantly. The domestic PX market is highly dependent on foreign market, and the higher external price has a certain positive impact on domestic price.
Since 2021, the supply of PX at home and abroad is slightly tight. The domestic PX operation rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton plant of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Pengzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates normally. The plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Qingdao Lidong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates at full load. The plant of Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably About 50% of the units were started, and the domestic supply of p-xylene was general. However, there were many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price of p-xylene was affected and rose. Recently, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the PX external price rose. As of the 26th, the closing prices in Asia were 864-866 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 882-884 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia declined. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the PX external closing price rose sharply, which was affected by the external price China’s paraxylene market rose sharply due to the impact of Georgia.
Recently, oil prices soared continuously, OPEC + and its allies (OPEC +) continued to spare no effort to limit production policy, and U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell for several weeks, which paved the way for the rise of oil prices. In addition, under the background of epidemic situation, vaccination is promoted, and economic recovery is expected to continue to heat up. Since the middle of February, the United States has been hit by an unprecedented snowstorm. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down. The rapid decline of production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has accelerated the pace of oil price rise. According to the monitoring, on February 26, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $61.50/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $64.42/barrel. The price trend of p-xylene rose sharply due to this influence.
In the near future, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream has risen sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market has gone up. As of the 1st PTA market, the average price is 4800-4850 yuan / ton, and the PTA price in 2021 will rise as high as 30.76.28%. PTA supply continues to be at a high level. Due to limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant is about 85%. The end market returns to work in an orderly manner after the festival, making the return time earlier than the scheduled time. As of February 24, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas has increased to more than 48%. It is expected that the weaving industry will basically return to normal operation in early March. However, at this stage, raw materials are rising rapidly, which aggravates the market risk. Therefore, the downstream companies are cautious about the market and make more inquiries, but they are still hesitant to “place an order”, and the order has not improved significantly. The price rise of PTA in the downstream has a certain positive support for the price of PX market in the upstream, and the price trend of PX market is rising.
Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the current cost side still has some support, and the short-term crude oil price will remain high and volatile. In addition, most downstream enterprises still have expectations for the market in March, and most of them continue to be bullish. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will continue to rise in the future.
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