According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 17, 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a steady upward and moderate recovery trend, with prices gradually rising from 168000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the cycle to 170000 yuan/ton at the end of the cycle, with a cumulative increase of 1.19%. The market trend in this cycle has relied on rigid support from the supply side to achieve a slight increase in prices, and has not seen a significant rise due to the constraints of flat downstream demand. The combined effects of external market linkage, raw material flow, and other factors have driven the market to moderately improve and fluctuate upwards.
International market: multiple factors providing support for volatility and stabilization
The international antimony market fluctuated and adjusted synchronously during the same period this cycle, with the mainstream transaction price range stabilizing at 23000-25000 US dollars per metric ton. After a brief pullback in the early stage, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded this cycle. On the one hand, the United States continued to increase its support for the local antimony supply chain, strengthening its ability to independently control strategic resources. On the other hand, the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up global energy and shipping costs, while driving up expectations for antimony demand in the defense sector. The dual factors together provide support for international antimony prices; Recently, there has been an abnormal phenomenon of price inversion between antimony oxide and antimony ingots in overseas markets. At the same time, the proportion of antimony raw materials circulating to China in Southeast Asia has significantly increased. Driven by the continuous narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the trend of raw materials returning to China has become increasingly evident, indirectly easing the tight pressure on domestic raw material supply and forming a positive support for the domestic market.
Supply side: rigid and tight, with sufficient price support
Domestic refineries are generally optimistic about the post holiday market this cycle, with a low willingness to ship. They are actively controlling their shipments to reduce the circulation in the spot market, and low-priced sources continue to be scarce. Holders and traders have a strong mentality of hoarding goods, often choosing to reduce spot purchases and wait for the post holiday market to start, further exacerbating the tight balance pattern on the spot side. The difficulty of replenishing raw materials remains high, and high-quality and low-priced antimony concentrate resources are difficult to find. In addition, some mines are limited in production due to seasonal factors, and the tight supply of raw materials supports the mentality of refineries to raise prices. The overall market has no initiative to lower prices and ship, providing bottom support for spot prices.
Demand side: rigid demand dominates and constrains upward movement
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: As the core deep processing product of the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide is the mainstream category, mainly used in the field of flame retardants, and also extended to photovoltaic glass, electronic materials and other scenarios. Its market trend is strongly linked with antimony ingots. Affected by the fluctuation of bromine prices, production costs have significantly increased. Coupled with the restrictive policies of developed countries such as the European Union on halogenated flame retardants, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced antimony ingots, and their procurement mainly relies on small batches of essential inventory replenishment. The lack of follow-up on actual transactions has to some extent constrained the upward space of antimony ingot prices.
Photovoltaics: As the core demand area for antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass industry is currently in a period of supply-demand adjustment. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to improve, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has shown signs of a month on month rebound in early March, the pressure of high inventory and oversupply in the industry has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the demand for antimony based clarifying agents has slowed down, failing to form a large-scale procurement pull.
Outlook for the future: In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will continue its stable to strong oscillation trend, with the core support coming from the rigid and tight supply side pattern. The upstream price stance is firm, and holders have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot circulation remains tight, while the positive impact of external market stabilization and raw material return will continue; Although downstream demand is generally flat and it is difficult to form a strong driving force for essential procurement, it will not significantly suppress the market. Under the long short game, the market will maintain a moderate upward trend and there will be no significant fluctuations in the short term. Subsequent focus will be on the evolution of the international geopolitical situation, fluctuations in foreign prices, progress of overseas raw material return, and the recovery of demand in downstream photovoltaic and flame retardant industries.
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