According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to March 16, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed significant fluctuations and an overall upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 30.7% within half a month as of March 16. This market fluctuation is mainly influenced by multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts leading to changes in crude oil prices, domestic supply contraction, and weak downstream demand.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the first half of March, international crude oil prices fluctuated significantly, becoming the core cost support driving the upward trend of toluene prices. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for navigation. As an important channel for global oil transportation, it has raised concerns about global crude oil supply and driven a significant surge in international oil prices. On March 10th, due to the easing of market concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict, oil prices experienced a significant decline, with the lowest price of US crude oil falling to $84.43 per barrel, indicating a large overall fluctuation. As of March 13th, the settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $98.71 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May is $103.14 per barrel. The significant increase in crude oil prices directly drives up the production cost of toluene, providing core support for the upward trend of market prices. However, the short-term correction of oil prices has also led to a temporary decline in toluene prices, which has simultaneously amplified the volatility of the toluene market.
Supply side:
In the first half of March, the overall supply of toluene in China showed a shrinking trend, coupled with regional market differentiation, which provided strong support for prices. The operating load of domestic and surrounding refineries has decreased, and some main refinery units have reduced their load, resulting in a significant reduction in supply and driving local prices to strengthen; The refineries in the surrounding major production areas have also simultaneously reduced their load, further exacerbating the global tight supply situation and supporting the firm domestic price of toluene.
At the same time, there are slight differences in the trend between domestic regions, but the overall trend is upward. Among them, Shandong region was driven by the expectation of supply tightening, with active negotiations in the early stage and rapid price increases. Later, due to high prices, downstream facilities were shut down, and prices fell back; The supply in Jiangsu region is relatively loose, and overall price fluctuations are relatively mild, with slightly weak spot transactions; Refineries in Guangdong region have generally reduced their burden, resulting in overall tight supply and supporting regional prices. However, downstream production is limited, procurement intentions are low, and transactions are limited. In addition, some domestic refineries have entered the maintenance season, coupled with the obstruction of imported goods supply, exacerbating the expectation of supply tightening. Holders of goods are reluctant to sell and pushing prices higher, further boosting prices.
Demand side:
In the first half of March, the overall demand for toluene in China showed a pattern of “weak demand and insufficient support”, with limited demand support from the PX industry as the core. Coupled with the obstruction of cost transfer, it failed to effectively boost the price of toluene and to some extent suppressed the market increase. The overall demand performance was in sharp contrast to the contraction of the supply side, showing a stage characteristic of supply-demand imbalance. As the core downstream field of toluene, the PX industry entered the maintenance season in March. Multiple sets of PX units at home and abroad underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, directly leading to a reduction in the demand for toluene procurement. The expected operating load of PX units further decreased to a low level, and the trend of demand shrinkage was obvious.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX quotation of Sinopec Sales Company fluctuated upward in the first half of March. On March 1st, the quotation was about 7300 yuan/ton, and as of March 16th, it rose to 10050 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 37.7% in the first half of the month; The price of PX in Asia also fluctuated and rose, with an average price of about $1180/ton on March 1st, rising to $1490/ton on March 16th, a cumulative increase of 26.3%. The price increase in foreign markets was slightly lower than that in China.
Market forecast:
Overall, the short-term toluene market is expected to maintain a high volatility trend, with geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in crude oil prices remaining core cost support variables; The maintenance and load reduction of domestic and foreign refineries continue, and the pattern of supply reduction is difficult to change in the short term, which provides certain support for prices. Continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics, crude oil trends, and the recovery of PX industry operations.
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