This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3468.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% from the beginning of the week price of 3450 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.19%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting the tightness of fluorite spot prices
1. The resumption of production after the holiday fell short of expectations, and the operating rate in the main production areas was sluggish
After the Spring Festival, the overall progress of resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants is slow, and the core production areas in the north are constrained by weather and policies, resulting in a much lower operating load than the same period in previous years. As the main production area of fluorite in China, Inner Mongolia was still affected by low temperature weather in early March, which hindered mining and transportation. In addition, during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, safety and environmental protection inspections were intensified, and some small and medium-sized mines were shut down for rectification, resulting in limited release of compliant production capacity; Although production areas such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian in the south are gradually resuming work, they are constrained by tight raw ore supply and slow improvement in the operating rate of beneficiation plants, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap in the north. The overall operating rate of fluorite in the country remains low, and the spot output is lower than market expectations.
2. Normalization of industry regulation and continuous clearance of existing production capacity
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions has further compressed the market circulation of goods. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally at a low level, and traders have limited stock reserves and extremely low willingness to sell at low prices, forming a market pattern of “less goods, higher prices”.
3. Limited import supplementation makes it difficult to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
Although the domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%, the supply of overseas sources has also been tight recently, and there has been no significant increase in import volume. Due to transportation and production capacity limitations, major import sources such as Mongolia have received less fluorite than expected, and import costs remain high, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic spot shortage, further exacerbating the domestic supply shortage and supporting the strengthening of domestic trade prices.
Demand side: downstream fluorine chemical industry recovery requires urgent support gradually emerging
1. Hydrofluoric acid market rebounds, driving demand for raw material procurement
The downstream anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is strengthening synchronously, with mainstream delivery prices rising to 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have restarted their facilities and their operating rates have rebounded, leading to an increase in the demand for fluorite raw materials. Although hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been affected by the price increase of sulfuric acid and other auxiliary materials, their profit margins have been compressed, and they tend to purchase high priced fluorite rationally. However, the demand for stocking during peak seasons is gradually released, and the trading center of fluorite is steadily shifting upwards under the support of essential needs. Downstream price increases are further transmitted to the upstream raw material end.
2. The implementation of refrigerant quotas and the expected increase in stocking during peak seasons
The refrigerant quota policy will be officially implemented in 2026, further increasing industry concentration and orderly release of production capacity by top enterprises. Coupled with the approaching summer air conditioning refrigeration peak season, downstream refrigerant companies will stock up in advance, driving the recovery of upstream demand for hydrofluoric acid and fluorite. At the same time, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow. The growth rate of demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluorine-containing polymers and other products is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices.
Market forecast: The tight supply-demand balance in the domestic fluorite market is difficult to change, and prices still have upward momentum. On the supply side, weather and policy controls in northern production areas will continue, making it difficult to accelerate the resumption of mining production in the short term, and the low inventory pattern will continue; On the demand side, with the rise in temperature, the downstream fluorine chemical production rate will further increase, and the demand for stocking during peak season will continue to be released. Cost and emotional support are still present, and it is expected that the price of fluorite will maintain a strong oscillation trend, and some high-grade source quotations are expected to further rise.
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