1、 Price trend
This week, the acrylic acid market showed a pulse like fluctuation trend of first rising, then falling, and then stabilizing, with prices playing around the 12750 yuan/ton range. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of high-quality acrylic acid in East China was 12750 yuan/ton on March 11th, and rapidly rose to a stage high of 13076 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to March 12th, with a growth rate of 2.56%; On March 15th, the price quickly fell back to 12750 yuan/ton, giving up all the stage gains; From March 16th to 18th, prices stabilized and remained unchanged from the beginning of last week, maintaining an overall trend of range consolidation.
2、 Market situation
Cost side:
The disturbance of the energy supply chain caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains a core factor on the cost side, with high fluctuations in international crude oil and propane prices driving the rigid support of propylene raw material costs. But as market sentiment gradually cools down, the price of propylene has slightly fallen from its peak, and the driving force of the raw material side to push up acrylic acid has weakened. Cost support has shifted from “strong driving” to “bottom line support”, providing space for price decline.
Supply and demand side:
1. Supply side: The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, with sufficient spot supply and no obvious supply gap. The tight spot circulation caused by panic hoarding in the early stage has gradually eased, and the pace of enterprise shipments has returned to stability.
2. Demand side: Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and water reducers mainly rely on rigid procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices above 13000 yuan/ton. After concentrated stockpiling in the early stage, demand enters a digestion period, lacking incremental demand support, and the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate, restricting the upward space of prices.
Emotional side:
At the beginning of this week, the market was affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost transmission, and speculative sentiment and hoarding behavior drove prices higher. However, with the marginal easing of the situation and the correction of raw material prices, market panic subsided, transactions returned to rationality, and actual order negotiations focused more on fundamental matching, resulting in a narrower range of price fluctuations.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, the supply-demand game will continue to dominate the operation of the acrylic acid market, and the price is likely to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation pattern, with a core fluctuation range around 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Focus on three core variables:
1. Upstream raw material propylene prices fluctuate. If the raw material continues to weaken, it will further weaken the cost support of acrylic acid or trigger a slight price drop;
2. Changes in downstream industry operating rates and procurement pace, if the demand for essential goods continues to weaken, may exacerbate the risk of downward price fluctuations;
3. The dynamic geopolitical situation in the Middle East may reactivate market sentiment and drive cost and price fluctuations if there are new changes in the situation.
In the medium to long term, the industry needs to pay attention to the pace of new production capacity deployment and adjustment of device operating rates in the second quarter. If supply pressure gradually releases, the supply-demand pattern may usher in a new balance, and price trends will be more in line with fundamental changes.
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