According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8625 yuan/ton on March 16th and 8641 yuan/ton on March 20th, an increase of 0.19%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10666 yuan/ton on March 16th and 10750 yuan/ton on March 20th, an increase of 0.78%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on March 16th was 8937 yuan/ton, and on March 20th it was 9045 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20%.
Cost side: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the severe fluctuations in international crude oil have provided strong support on the cost side.
Supply side: Domestic supply: In mid March, there was an increase in equipment maintenance, and the supply was temporarily tight. Import supply: The Middle East has a high proportion of goods, but due to shipping and geopolitical disturbances, port arrivals have been delayed and offers have decreased. It is expected that imports will significantly decrease in March and April, and external supply will tighten. Petrochemical inventory has decreased month on month, but social inventory remains high and destocking is slow.
On the demand side, the demand for spring plowing plastic film and packaging has been released, and the downstream operating rate has increased month on month, but the magnitude is limited. Downstream profits are severely squeezed, and procurement enthusiasm is not high, unable to support sustained price increases, resulting in a rapid decline after price surges.
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Geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainty, crude oil prices remain high, cost support is still present, and polyethylene prices are likely to maintain a high volatility trend, making it difficult to see a significant decline; However, weak terminal demand cannot support sustained price increases, and there is still downward pressure even after a surge.