According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will go down in 2020. The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will go down sharply in 2020. The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will be 10240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 9530 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual decrease of 6.93%. According to the price trend chart, the lowest price of the whole year will appear on November 27, the average market price will be 8400 yuan / ton, and the highest price of the whole year will appear on March 28 The average market price is 11520 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of hydrofluoric acid Market in 2020 is 27.08%.

The trend of hydrofluoric acid in 2020 can be roughly divided into four stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rises; the second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of May, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid price drops sharply; the third stage is from the beginning of June to the end of November, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fluctuates at a low level; the fourth stage is from the beginning of December to the end of December, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rises The specific upward trend is as follows:

In the first stage, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid increased from 10240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 11520 yuan / ton at the end of March, with an increase of 12.50%. The price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply. Firstly, during the period of maintenance of some domestic devices, the delivery situation of manufacturers on the site has improved. Affected by the public health time, some manufacturers have not resumed production. In addition, the transportation is limited. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises in the downstream Spring Festival has not been shut down, and the purchase demand has increased Go higher. Second, the upstream raw material fluorite products brought good support. At this stage, the start-up situation of fluorite plants was low, and the fluorite plants in Inner Mongolia and Hebei provinces were temporarily started. On the whole, the fluorite supply was tight, the fluorite price rose, and the higher upstream fluorite price had a great positive impact on hydrofluoric acid, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply. The third is that the market price of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has risen. Recently, the trading market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has turned well. At present, the automobile industry is gradually returning to work, the domestic R22 supply is normal, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 has risen. The start-up load of manufacturers’ production devices is still not high, the market supply situation is general, and the downstream air conditioning manufacturers stop more, and the demand changes little The mainstream price of domestic large enterprises is 16500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, and the downstream market has improved, which is also a good support for the high price of hydrofluoric acid market.

The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of May, when the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply, from 11320 yuan / ton in early April to 8630 yuan / ton on May 31, a decrease of 23.76%. There are two main reasons for the decline of market price of hydrofluoric acid during this period. First, with the gradual warming of temperature, domestic fluorite enterprises began to work gradually, and the operating rate of fluorite increased. The domestic mines and flotation units started to work more, which increased the spot supply of fluorite in the yard, and the supply of fluorite in the yard was sufficient, and the domestic fluorite price fell. In addition, the fluorite manufacturers in the North began to work gradually, the domestic fluorite supply increased, the fluorite price on the floor declined, and the upstream raw materials fell sharply, which was a big negative effect on the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Second, the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60% in the near future. Enterprises reflect that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the downstream market is not good, and the market demand for hydrofluoric acid is weakened. Recently, due to the decline of downstream market price and the decline of upstream fluorite price, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline. Recently, most manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid has serious losses, and the overall price is low In view of this, domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices fell sharply due to bad news.

The third stage is from the beginning of June to the end of November. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market fluctuates from 8630 yuan / ton at the beginning of June to 8360 yuan / ton at the end of November, with a decrease of 3.13%. During this period, the price of hydrofluoric acid market fluctuates mainly. Recently, the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. The enterprises reflect that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, but the downstream market has not improved significantly. The market demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. Recently, due to the stable price trend of downstream market and little change of upstream fluorite price, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable. Recently, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid still exists The market price of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable due to the loss and the absence of market price in some areas. Generally speaking, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has no obvious positive support in the near future, and the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level. In addition, affected by public health events, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry is poor. On the one hand, the domestic demand is not good, and the refrigerant industry starts to maintain below 30%, which is not good for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand. On the other hand, recently, the export of refrigerants has been restricted to a certain extent. The overseas epidemic situation is serious, and the export of refrigerants has fallen sharply, resulting in the low price of the domestic refrigerants industry. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry is depressed, the market price of the refrigerant downstream of the terminal is depressed, the foreign special events are serious, the export of the refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and the domestic air conditioning industry starts low, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. On the whole, the domestic and foreign demand is less than expected. The price of refrigerants dropped sharply. In addition, the downstream industry was not active in purchasing and the demand was poor. The price of refrigerants was low. The price of hydrofluoric acid was low due to bad news.

The fourth stage is from the beginning of December to the end of December, when the market price of hydrofluoric acid returns to the rising stage, with an overall increase of 11.85% in December. In recent years, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid has maintained a high level, and the domestic fluorite ex factory price is about 2700 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite plant has declined in operation, and the mine and flotation plant in the yard have been shut down. The supply of fluorite in the yard is tight. The high price of fluorite is a good support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the transaction market of terminal downstream refrigerant market has risen slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock up cycle, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic R22 market price has risen, the start-up load of manufacturers’ production devices is still not high, the market supply capacity has declined, and the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’ maintenance has little change in demand, but the supply is tight, and the price of domestic large enterprises is low The current rose to 12500-15500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market has not changed much, and the operating rate of production enterprises has remained low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stocking cycle, the demand for R134a has slightly improved, the downstream market has improved, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded and gone up. In addition, in recent years, some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants have been shut down for maintenance, the operating rate of hydrofluoric acid plants in the yard has declined, the supply of hydrofluoric acid in the yard is tight, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen sharply.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid industry chain in 2020 is as follows:

In 2020, the market of fluorine chemical industry will be weak. From fluorite to hydrofluoric acid, the downstream refrigerant industry will decline in different procedures. The fluorine chemical industry will be in recession, and the terminal demand will not be significantly improved, so the market trend will decline.

Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business society, believes that in the short term, the start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is not high, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly tight, and the market is good. In addition, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is relatively normal, and the price of downstream refrigerant industry has a rising trend. In addition, fluorite enterprises have obvious price support intention, and the price may maintain a small rising trend in early 2021. In the long run, with the advent of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, the manufacturers in the domestic refrigerant industry will prepare the goods and gradually start up the refrigerant units for maintenance. At that time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise, and the price may remain at about 11500 yuan / ton. With the end of the peak sales season of the refrigeration industry, it is expected that the upward pressure on the hydrofluoric acid market will increase in the second and third quarters, or the price will gradually fall down to 8000 yuan / T, and the price may rise in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to be 9500-10500 yuan / T.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. Now the average price of Shandong market is 485 yuan / ton, which is 1.02% lower than the average price of 490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 23.32% lower than the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on December 30 was 69.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.27% from 206.87 (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.17% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of caustic soda is not supported by favorable factors. The overall caustic soda market is weak, the conversation atmosphere is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow consolidation of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 1400-1500 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The lower reaches purchase more on demand, the market atmosphere is not good, and the transaction follow-up of the lower reaches is weak.

Demand: downstream. Affected by the severe pollution weather warning in the north, alumina enterprises reduced production more. The new year’s Day holiday is approaching, and the purchase intention of papermaking, printing and dyeing is low. The downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. As of last Thursday, the weighted average operating load of sample enterprises in major regions of China was 80.11%, down 1.34 percentage points from last week. The overall start-up of caustic soda continued at a high level.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise, 3 kinds of commodities that fall, and 2 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities falling were: PVC (- 6.74%), light soda (- 5.71%), hydrochloric acid (- 1.64%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2020, the national caustic soda output was 3.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. From January to November, the cumulative national caustic soda output was 32.858 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable with little change in the cost side. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 15726.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.01% compared with the average price of 16996.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 8.06% compared with the average price of 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and an increase of 39.96% compared with the valley price of 11230 yuan / ton at the end of the year (March 24).

Monthly rise and fall in 2020

Future view basis

1. The consumption of aluminum ingots is expected to weaken in the early stage of the Spring Festival. Affected by the shutdown factors in the downstream of the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption of aluminum ingots may have a slight drop. At present, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is hovering on the 600000 ton line, with a slight rebound trend.

2. In terms of investment, the total position of Hulai shows a downward trend, the willingness of bulls to stop profits is strengthened, and some non industrial funds are withdrawn towards the end of the year.

3. The domestic new production capacity is not much. At present, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively high, the price of internal and external market is upside down, and the demand for imported aluminum ingots is strong.

Future conclusions

The overall low inventory and domestic new production capacity is not much, which benefits the aluminum price; raw material side, alumina price is good, the prebaked anode market is stable as a whole, the cost side benefits the aluminum ingot price to a certain extent, based on the current profit is fair, the cost side impact factor is small; in the later stage, it is expected that the impact of limiting production, electricity and gas will expand, the downstream construction will gradually decline, and the downstream consumption will weaken near the end of the year, which is bad for aluminum Price. It is expected that the recent aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust, and the consolidation probability is high.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to business news agency data, on December 30, the average price of silver in the morning market was 5477.67 yuan / kg, up 16.18% from the average price of 4715 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); the average price of silver in the morning market was 4376.33 yuan / kg, up 25.17% from the beginning of the year (01.01); the average price of silver in the morning market was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 86.15% from the trough of the year (3.19); the peak value of silver in the year (8.11) The spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg, down 18.35%.

On December 30, the spot price of gold was 391.30 yuan / g, an increase of 4.99% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (12.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), an increase of 14.23%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, an increase of 17.19%; the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g, a decrease of 12.66%.

In December, the price of precious metals returned to the rising trend, mainly due to:

The development trend of overseas epidemic in winter has not been significantly curbed, especially the discovery of new virus strains, coupled with the poor data of the number of confirmed cases, resulting in the expected benefits of the vaccine greatly reduced;

On the policy side, the news that the United States signed a US bail-out bill to legislate a US $2.3 trillion plan, combined with the continued depreciation of the US dollar, led to a surge in the demand for gold in terms of anti inflation and hedging.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this month. The average price of isopropanol in China was 10366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and 7966.67 yuan / ton as of the 25th of this month. The price was reduced by 23.15% in this month.

2、 Market analysis

Isopropanol prices fell this month. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on December 22, while that in Europe was basically stable. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 7600-8000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 7900-8000 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 7900 yuan / ton. Raw material acetone continued to decline, cost side down pressure isopropanol downstream market mentality, downstream orders cautious, buying enthusiasm is limited. In recent days, the domestic isopropanol market has been weak and the atmosphere on the floor is empty.

In terms of raw material acetone, the negotiation focus of acetone market fell sharply this month. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic price of acetone was 9450 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the average price was 7550 yuan / ton as of the 25th of this month. The price of acetone decreased by 20.11%. In addition, the price of acetone in the market is expected to drop significantly after the closing 25 days of negotiation, although the price of acetone in the market is expected to drop significantly. At present, the mainstream market quotation on the 25th is 7550-7800 yuan / ton.

As for raw material propylene, as of December 25, the market price of propylene in Shandong generally declined. The market turnover is between 7800-8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7800-7850 yuan / ton. The current inventory is general, the price of crude oil fluctuates mainly, and the downstream market is slightly cold, so it is expected that the propylene price will continue to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think that: the raw material acetone has been greatly reduced, and the cost side has been declining, which has depressed the mentality of the downstream market of isopropanol; the price reduction of raw material propylene is limited, and the propene method isopropanol is not willing to follow. Under the market tug of war, the decline of isopropanol is expected to be limited.