This week, the acrylic acid market maintained stable operation amidst the game of cost support and weak demand, and market sentiment tended to be cautious and optimistic. As of February 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
The current ‘stable’ state is a typical result of weak supply-demand balance, mainly reflected in two aspects:
On the cost side: Due to the strong price of the main raw material propylene, the production cost of acrylic acid remains high. If the selling price further drops, manufacturers will face losses, so they are determined to stabilize prices and set clear “floor prices” for the market. On February 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6437.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: Despite cost support, the recovery of demand in the end market is slow. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, only engaging in essential procurement without large-scale hoarding actions. This weak demand is like a ‘ceiling’, suppressing price increases.
Future prospects:
This fragile balance is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. The future market direction depends on the game of several key variables:
The traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four” after January is crucial. If the recovery of the real estate and consumer goods markets drives downstream demand to rebound beyond expectations, prices are expected to break through upwards.
2. The maintenance equipment in the early stage of the second quarter will resume production, and the output of newly added capacity will be more fully released. At that time, the supply pressure will significantly increase, which may suppress prices.
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line of acrylic acid. If there is a trend change in crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance.
In summary, the acrylic acid market showed initial signs of stabilization or even partial recovery in early February, but the foundation is not yet solid. For market participants, short-term operations should remain flexible and should not have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Strictly controlling inventory is still the best strategy. Medium – to long-term preparation requires being prepared for potential trend trends in the second quarter and closely monitoring the actual evolution of the key variables mentioned above.
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