1、 Price trend:
According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. Now the average price of Shandong market is 485 yuan / ton, which is 1.02% lower than the average price of 490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 23.32% lower than the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on December 30 was 69.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.27% from 206.87 (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.17% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Market analysis
This month, the price of caustic soda is not supported by favorable factors. The overall caustic soda market is weak, the conversation atmosphere is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow consolidation of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 1400-1500 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The lower reaches purchase more on demand, the market atmosphere is not good, and the transaction follow-up of the lower reaches is weak.
Demand: downstream. Affected by the severe pollution weather warning in the north, alumina enterprises reduced production more. The new year’s Day holiday is approaching, and the purchase intention of papermaking, printing and dyeing is low. The downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. As of last Thursday, the weighted average operating load of sample enterprises in major regions of China was 80.11%, down 1.34 percentage points from last week. The overall start-up of caustic soda continued at a high level.
According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise, 3 kinds of commodities that fall, and 2 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities falling were: PVC (- 6.74%), light soda (- 5.71%), hydrochloric acid (- 1.64%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 2.82%.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2020, the national caustic soda output was 3.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. From January to November, the cumulative national caustic soda output was 32.858 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable with little change in the cost side. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |