1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of steam coal is mainly stable this week. On December 7, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 662.75 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the average price of steam coal was maintained at about 691.25 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 24.27%. On December 13, the commodity index of steam coal was 83.28, unchanged with yesterday, 19.15% lower than the highest point of 103.01 (2011-11-15) and 86.31% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production areas, supply and demand of main production areas are still tight, and coal mine mouth operating rate has reached a relatively high point under the support of supply policy. Affected by the recent safety accidents, environmental protection and other multiple factors, the signal of safety production at the end of the year was enhanced, and the coal mining volume was affected to a certain extent. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places have issued environmental protection and production restriction notices, and the supply has dropped sharply.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 690-710 yuan / ton. The temperature in coastal areas dropped, and the demand for heating increased seasonally. Under the condition of low temperature and rising daily consumption, the downstream terminal transportation demand is also strong. The power plant replenishment is active, and the demand for coastal terminal procurement has been released. The inventory of Beigang is low, and the problem of shortage of goods still exists. In view of the soaring spot prices and the enhanced expectation of macro-control, the coastal power plants are mainly on the wait-and-see situation, and the procurement is relatively rational. In addition, the rapid recovery of the economy makes the coal demand of coal consuming enterprises increase. In the past two months, the purchase of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving a large increase in coal demand.

Import and price: coal imports continued to decline. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in November, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, down 9.11 million tons, or 43.84 percent, compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year, and 2.055 million tons, or 14.97 percent, compared with 13.726 million tons in October. The price of anthracite coal rose by 29.0% to RMB 763.0 per ton on February, and the price of anthracite coal decreased by 11.0% to RMB 923.0 per ton on February.

Business analysts believe that steam coal still has upward momentum: at present, the main coal producing areas are still tense. Near the end of the year, environmental protection policies are more stringent, and some coal dealers report that there will still be coal such as cars. In the second downstream power plant, affected by the extremely cold weather of La Nina this winter, the temperature in the north and northeast areas is rapidly decreasing, which drives the increase of coal demand. In addition, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir maintain a low level, hydropower output decreases, and thermal power generation continues to rise. 3. The import of coal decreased. In November this year, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, down 9.11 million tons, or 43.84 percent, compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year. Because of the stoppage of loading and unloading of Australian coal, the quota of coal imported by some users was close to zero. In addition, due to “public events”, the management of ports was strengthened. 4. Affected by the domestic economic recovery, the purchase of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries continued to increase, driving a large increase in coal demand. 5. Affected by domestic policies, in order to support the domestic economy, the state has been more strict in the control of imported coal. See the downstream market demand specifically.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on October 1 was 1866.67 yuan / ton, and that on December 14 was 2066.67 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%, and the market continued to rise.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on October 1 was 2306.67 yuan / ton, and on December 14, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 2440 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 5.78%, and the market continued to rise.

2、 Market analysis

The market of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply in the fourth quarter. Since the October double festival holiday, the price of monoammonium phosphate has generally risen, and some enterprises have closed their offer. The upward driving force in this quarter is mainly due to the rise of raw material prices, the planned maintenance of some enterprises, the tightening of supply, and the good demand for downstream compound fertilizer, which has promoted the market of No.1 phosphoric acid and the rising trading focus. The price of raw material phosphate rock rose in October, and the cost support was good. The downstream compound fertilizer also increased slightly. Monoammonium phosphate supply less, the market trend is more optimistic, the month’s increase was 3.57%. In November, the growth of monoammonium phosphate continued, and the growth slowed down in the second half of the month, showing a high consolidation, with an increase of 5.17% in the month. In December, the trend is still strong, manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, and prices continue to rise, but the enthusiasm of downstream trading turns weak, maintaining just in demand purchasing, and wait-and-see. Up to now, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 2050 – 2100 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2150-2180 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2000-2150 yuan / ton, and the price is stable temporarily.

In the fourth quarter, the market of diammonium phosphate rose, and the export improved. At the same time, some enterprises planned to overhaul, the supply was tightened, and the manufacturers’ inventory was not under pressure. In addition, winter storage was started, downstream fertilizer preparation increased, and the supply and demand side was favorable. In October, domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate was stable, and the price remained firm, with an increase of 2.17% in November. In November, the supply of goods was still tight, queuing for delivery, and the offer was firm, up 2.12% in the month. In December, the trend rose slightly, but in the near future, the export volume has declined, and traders are cautious to wait and see. The demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and DAP is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Up to now, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2400-2470 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2750-2800 yuan / ton. 64% DAP in Gansu Province was quoted 2500 yuan / T. The price of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2780-2800 yuan / ton, and the price is high.

In the first ten days of December, China’s domestic phosphate ore market was stable and slightly upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was mainly in operation. Until July 7, some low-priced phosphate ores in Guizhou Province made a small increase in the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate ore, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. The price concentration was close to the high level, and the difference between high and low prices was reduced. Most of the rest of the region phosphate ore market continued to operate stably. The year 2020 is coming to an end. The overall market situation of domestic phosphate ore is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the mine operation is low. The phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society predicts that by the end of 2020, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will be stable and the overall operation will be dominated.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the fourth quarter ammonium phosphate Market by tight supply, cost support and other favorable factors, the price rose, the focus of trading moved up. At present, the fatigue psychology of the downstream is revealed, the ability to receive goods is limited, and monoammonium phosphate pursues more orders. Under the favorable support, the market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, with large and small movements. At present, DAP is mainly for export orders, and the supply of goods is tight. The demand for downstream fertilizer is stable and the fundamental changes are not big. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term and the trend will be strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose this week and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, the weekly low price was 8095 yuan / ton; at the weekend, it was 8103 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%; on Tuesday and Wednesday, the weekly high price was 8191 yuan / ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.18%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price remained stable again. On the 4th, it began to rise in an all-round way. From the 3rd to the 8th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / ton, up 5.90%. On the 9th, the price remained stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up some supplementary increases, and some enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Today’s prices fell comprehensively, falling by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is between 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 8000-8050 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock pressure is small, the shipment situation is general.

On December 10, crude oil prices rose significantly, which may have a positive impact on propylene.

This week, the spot price of PP remained stable, and the futures market was more general, which had a limited impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose steadily this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 2.81%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

This week, the propylene oxide market remained stable, the impact on propylene is small.

Epichlorohydrin had a slight decline at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 1.62%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol declined steadily, with a weekly decline of 2.76%, which had a certain suppression effect on propylene.

Octanol market this week a small shock, the weekly decline of 0.17%, the weekly amplitude of 0.33%, the impact on propylene is limited.

This week, the isopropanol market fell back to its original position after rising, with no rise or fall. The weekly amplitude was 1.75%, which also had a limited impact on propylene.

This week, East China phenol fell sharply over the weekend, with a weekly decline of 3.47%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, East China acetone rose and then fell back, with a weekly increase of 2.94% and a weekly amplitude of 5.88%.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: on the whole, the existing propylene manufacturers have not much inventory, the shipment is general, and the crude oil price has increased, but the downstream market is generally, and it has started to be cold and empty. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on December 10 was 8512.5 yuan / ton, up 0.74% the previous day, 6.24% higher than the beginning of the month, 13.31% higher than the same period last year, and 20.49% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the PVC market has been on an upward trend, with an increase of more than 6% and a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. The spot price has broken through the bottleneck of 8000 yuan / ton, and there is still upward expectation. The spot market is generally above 8500 yuan / ton, touching 9000 yuan / ton, and the basis is relatively large. On the 10th, the PVC market continued to rise, with enterprises increasing by 100-200 yuan / ton, with an increase range of 200-300 yuan within the week, and there was no low-cost supply in the market. This week, the market is in a good state of mind, and some enterprises are short of stock. At present, the shortage of supply has not been changed. The price of raw material calcium carbide has been pushed up. The favorable support of PVC continues. The spot price continues to rise, which drives the plate to strengthen. However, the downstream resistance is strong, and the acceptance of high price PVC is limited. In addition, the support of demand side is gradually weakened due to the influence of consumption off-season, so the space for upstream is limited.

In terms of spot goods, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide is mostly around 8350-8750 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 type carbide in East China is 8850-9000 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei is 8620-8720 yuan / ton. The price of Inner Mongolia is 8400-8500 yuan / ton, which is from 8880 to 9050 yuan / ton in Hangzhou, 8900-9100 yuan / ton in Changzhou and 8850-9000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou Prices continue to rise.

In recent days, PVC futures continued to rise. The main PVC futures contract 2101 opened at 7835 yuan / ton and closed at 8125 yuan / ton on September 9. Yesterday’s settlement price was 7885 yuan / ton, up 3.04%. The trading range was 7805-8145 yuan / ton, with 297094 transactions and 230609 positions.

Regional variety and technology December 10

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8900-9100 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8850-9000 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 8620-8720 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8880-9050 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on December 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell slightly, and the main contract settlement price was at $45.52/barrel, down $0.08. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.86/barrel, up $0.02. The oil price was slightly adjusted. The negative EIA inventory data and the oil well attack in Iraq were both positive and negative. The long short game led to a fall in oil prices after rising.

For ethylene, the price of ethylene in Asia has fluctuated slightly recently. As of the 9th, CFR quoted 965-975 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia, down 5 dollars / ton, while CFR Southeast Asia quoted 895-905 dollars / ton, down 5 dollars / ton. The demand for ethylene market in Europe was good, with FD northwest Europe offering 927-942 USD / T, CIF northwest Europe quotation of 934-946 USD / T, down 1 USD / T. The US ethylene market was up, with FD US $683-694 / T, up US $33 / T, and the cost support was not strong. Data analysts from the business agency predicted that the external price of ethylene would fall mainly as follows.

Calcium carbide, early December, calcium carbide Market small fluctuations rise. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business agency believe that the current shortage of supplies has not been changed, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has been pushed up, the good support of PVC continues, the spot price continues to rise, driving the plate to strengthen, the PVC market is relatively strong in the short term, there are still upward expectations, mainly high volatility.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price fell slightly on the 9th, with the spot nickel price of 118400 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, 4.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 4.16% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

European stock markets rose, the US dollar index continued to rise slightly, and the overnight lunni trend remained stable, with a rise of 0.21%. The price of ferronickel is loose and sluggish. Large stainless steel plants have clinched several thousand tons of high nickel iron at 1045 yuan / nickel point, which is still unfavorable to ferronickel under the situation of increasing nickel iron reflux in Indonesia. However, with the increase of production reduction, the price reduction intention of ferronickel is also weakened. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is relatively strong. The port inventory shows a decline in inventory in the new period. The incoming materials will continue to decrease in the later period, but the domestic inquiry will decline. In the near future, the nickel inventory of LME continues to maintain above 240000 tons, while the domestic nickel inventory continues to drop to 19005 tons. The downstream stainless steel plant has significantly reduced the production of 300 Series in November, but the expected output change in December is limited. The theme of downstream new energy battery is highly concerned by the capital market, and the price of related nickel sulfate is relatively strong.

3、 Future prospects

After market forecast: the macro level is good, the downstream performance is strong, the decline of nickel ore inventory has support for nickel price, and nickel price is expected to be mainly strong in the near future.