1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price fell slightly on the 9th, with the spot nickel price of 118400 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, 4.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 4.16% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

European stock markets rose, the US dollar index continued to rise slightly, and the overnight lunni trend remained stable, with a rise of 0.21%. The price of ferronickel is loose and sluggish. Large stainless steel plants have clinched several thousand tons of high nickel iron at 1045 yuan / nickel point, which is still unfavorable to ferronickel under the situation of increasing nickel iron reflux in Indonesia. However, with the increase of production reduction, the price reduction intention of ferronickel is also weakened. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is relatively strong. The port inventory shows a decline in inventory in the new period. The incoming materials will continue to decrease in the later period, but the domestic inquiry will decline. In the near future, the nickel inventory of LME continues to maintain above 240000 tons, while the domestic nickel inventory continues to drop to 19005 tons. The downstream stainless steel plant has significantly reduced the production of 300 Series in November, but the expected output change in December is limited. The theme of downstream new energy battery is highly concerned by the capital market, and the price of related nickel sulfate is relatively strong.

3、 Future prospects

After market forecast: the macro level is good, the downstream performance is strong, the decline of nickel ore inventory has support for nickel price, and nickel price is expected to be mainly strong in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. On December 7, the price was 942.50 US dollars / ton, and the average price of ethylene on 8 days was 941.50 US dollars / ton, down 0.11%. The current price is up 31.49% month on month, and the current price is 17.98% higher than last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $980-990 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $905-915 per ton as of the 7th. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 7th, FD northwest Europe closed at 926-941 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 937-948 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. has increased greatly. As of the 7th, the price is 633-645 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of December, the Eurasian ethylene market declined slightly. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market is general, the market atmosphere is cold and clear, and the market is slightly down.

International: on December 7, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $46.26/barrel, down $0.62. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 49.25 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.54 dollars. International oil prices fell slightly on Monday, mainly due to a surge in the number of new cases and increased market tensions due to uncertainty in Sino US relations.

In the near future, the East China styrene market continues to be weak. Crude oil is weak in the short term, pure benzene and ethylene are strong in the short term, and the price is rising, and the cost of styrene is well supported. However, domestic plant restart increased and spot supply increased. The downstream production and sales are declining, the demand is weakening, and there is a long and short market confrontation game. Today, the East China styrene market price is in the shade of 7800-8150 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, the number of new crown cases has increased sharply, and the southern part of California has adopted strict blockade measures, and the cost support is not strong. Therefore, the data analysts of business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will fall mainly as follows.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club, the domestic PA6 market remained at a high level in early December, and the rise and fall range of each brand was still small. As of December 7, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 12833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.12% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, caprolactam prices continued to rise in early December. According to the data of the business club, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises on December 7 was 10800 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.21% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. Crude benzene rose on the news of crude oil production reduction plan. At present, caprolactam operation rate is still not high, Shandong Haili, which has been shut down for maintenance in the early stage, has not been restarted. The end time of maintenance plan of orchid scientific innovation is not clear, and the pattern of tight supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand is fair, caprolactam is currently supported by the supply side, and it is expected that the market will rise in the near future.

The upstream caprolactam market is strong, there is support for the cost of PA6. At present, the market of PA6 is stable temporarily, and some brands of products follow the upstream. Due to a certain increase of PA6 in the early stage, it has been at a high level at present. Downstream factories are resistant to high price goods and replenishment operation is cautious. In terms of demand for PA6, there was still a weak situation in the demand for PA6. At the end of November, traders had a strong atmosphere of selling goods, which narrowed the rise of the price and dragged down the focus of quotation. The main advantage of the market is that the upstream caprolactam supply is tight, and PA6 polymerization plant is passively rising under the pressure of cost.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in early October, the domestic PA6 market is mainly stable, and local prices have risen. The supply of caprolactam in the upper reaches remained low and continued to rise. PA6 cost side support is strong. Downstream factories just need to take delivery of goods, and have conflicts with high price goods, so they should be cautious in purchasing and trading. In the short term, the upstream supply is tight and the situation is difficult to change. The spot price of PA6 may follow the upstream.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell first and then rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 57330 yuan / ton, down 0.28% from 57491.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 10.46% higher than that of the beginning of the week, and 21.73% higher than that of the beginning of the year. LME copper rose in March, closing at $7758, a weekly increase of 3.36%; Shanghai copper index surged to 57960 yuan at the beginning of the week, and closed at 57450 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.37%. At the beginning of this week, the international copper index rose sharply to 51430 yuan, and then fluctuated to a wide range, closing at 51290 yuan, up 2.58% for the week. The recent copper price in the early period of rapid rise, there is a small correction in the near future.

After the risk of the US election weakened gradually, with the progress of the new crown vaccine and the optimistic expectation of overseas fiscal stimulus, the macro level continued to improve and the fundamentals performed well, and the copper price once climbed to a seven-year high. At the beginning of this week, the momentum of copper’s rapid rise was slightly insufficient, but the expectation that foreign countries continue to increase the loose price and hope for the new crown vaccine will support the high level of copper in the future. The trend of Luntong copper is stronger than that of domestic copper, and the rising trend of copper is not over. In the short term, the fundamentals of the copper market are relatively good. The inventory of the previous period has dropped to a six-year low, and the low inventory structure is difficult to reverse.

Copper prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but the short-term trend is still weak.

In November, the overall trend of propane market was weak, with frequent fluctuations in the month. The price rose and fell, and the market was more tortuous. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on November 1 was 3845.00 yuan / ton, and that on November 30 was 3800.00 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.17% in the month and a decrease of 6.35% compared with the same period last year.

According to the annual comparison chart of business associations, it is found that in recent years, the price of propane Market in the same period has reached more than 4000 yuan / ton, but the price of propane market this year (2020) is lower than that of previous years. In November, the propane Market, which should have been in the peak demand season, did not rise as scheduled. In November this year, Shandong propane market only continued the silver ten rising trend at the beginning of the month. On the 12th, the market began to fall, and the price dropped successively. Near the end of the month, the 23-25 market only rebounded once, but the rebound was blocked, and finally fell to the end of November.

As of November 30, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification November 30

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 953630-3700 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3750-3830 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3750-3955 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953500-3600 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953800-3830 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, there were many positive factors in the market, which supported the continued rise of propane. In terms of the international market, international crude oil rose for three consecutive times, and the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly. The news was favorable to the market mentality. In addition, with the introduction of CP price in November, both propylene and butane rose sharply, bringing obvious support to the market, and the manufacturers continuously raised the ex factory prices. The average price in Shandong rose to 3739.50 yuan / ton, just one step away from the 4000 yuan / ton mark.

However, the rise was hindered. Due to the resumption of production in some refineries in Shandong Province, the arrival of goods at ports increased compared with the previous period, which restrained the price rise. Starting from the 12th, the market went out of a continuous downward line. At the same time, the demand did not meet the expectations, the weather cooling was not obvious, the market demand was still weak, the terminal consumption was slow, the downstream periodic replenishment was the main, and the market was in the situation of oversupply. Near the end of the month, 23-25 market rebound. Due to the continuous rise of international crude oil, the news brought a significant boost to the market. In addition, the rising cost of gas intake has significantly supported the market. Shandong propane market finally stopped falling and rose. However, the good times did not last long, and the rally only lasted for 3 days. With the weakness of crude oil and the absence of good market, it returned to the downward trend again and finally ended in November.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco CP announced in December that both propylene and butane were increased. Propane was 450 US dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton from last month; butane was 460 dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton from last month. CP rose in December, bringing good news to the market.

At present, the rise of CP price in December has brought certain benefits to the market. Although the international crude oil has weakened, it is still at a relatively high level, bringing support to the market. Although it is difficult to improve the situation of oversupply in the short term, the winter weather continues to cool down, and the demand is still expected to rise. Near the end of the year, with the enthusiasm of downstream market entry gradually improved, propane market is expected to rise in December.