Price trend:
According to the data of business club’s block list, the overall trend of ABS market in the first half of May was positive, and all brands of products were consolidated after rising. As of May 18, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18600 yuan / ton, up 1.22% from the average price in early April and 61.04% from the same period last year.
Factor analysis:
Raw materials, so far, domestic Styrene Market in the first half of may in the cost support and tight spot supply driven by shocks upward, spot maintain strong. Recent crude oil trend twists and turns, the price position is high. In terms of fundamentals, oil prices still have strong support. The direct raw material pure benzene maintains a positive market. At present, the maintenance of pure benzene plant is concentrated, the downstream new demand is affected, the domestic pure benzene supply is short, the market price is low and the listed price of Sinopec is rising continuously, which supports the price of styrene. It is expected that styrene will still be in strong operation in the short term.
For butadiene, the domestic butadiene market was mainly consolidated in early May. In terms of price, the trading atmosphere of butadiene market in East China was cold and slightly weak. Business intention to stabilize the price offer, but the downstream inquiry is weak, high price source transaction is not smooth. Under the game of supply and demand, the domestic butadiene market is expected to have no obvious positive support in the short term, and the trend may be consolidation.
In the first ten days of May, the ABS cost side market was generally strong, and the support for ABS cost side was strong. In the early stage, the situation of increasing supply in petrochemical enterprises due to high operating rate has been improved. In the recent period, the maintenance of production units is relatively concentrated, and the burden reduction of enterprises is good for the supply side. The previous accumulated reserves have to be gradually digested. The spot market rose with the trend. By the middle of the month, the ABS price was at a high level, the end-user’s resistance was gradually rising, and the trading atmosphere began to shrink. In addition, the current demand has not been large-scale, ABS is hindered in the game between supply and demand.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in the first half of May, ABS spot market generally rose, the current price position reached a monthly high in the first ten days of consolidation, and recently the price has come down. The trend of raw materials is generally strong, and the support for ABS cost is acceptable. The downstream factories follow up passively, no hoarding operation, strong resistance to high price sources. The Business Association believes that the supply side will be given extra support in the industry overhaul season, and the terminal consumption is difficult to be large-scale. In the short term, the disk may be fine tuned to find a balance point. It is expected that the ABS spot market may continue its high consolidation trend in the near future.
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