1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on December 10 was 8512.5 yuan / ton, up 0.74% the previous day, 6.24% higher than the beginning of the month, 13.31% higher than the same period last year, and 20.49% higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In December, the PVC market has been on an upward trend, with an increase of more than 6% and a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. The spot price has broken through the bottleneck of 8000 yuan / ton, and there is still upward expectation. The spot market is generally above 8500 yuan / ton, touching 9000 yuan / ton, and the basis is relatively large. On the 10th, the PVC market continued to rise, with enterprises increasing by 100-200 yuan / ton, with an increase range of 200-300 yuan within the week, and there was no low-cost supply in the market. This week, the market is in a good state of mind, and some enterprises are short of stock. At present, the shortage of supply has not been changed. The price of raw material calcium carbide has been pushed up. The favorable support of PVC continues. The spot price continues to rise, which drives the plate to strengthen. However, the downstream resistance is strong, and the acceptance of high price PVC is limited. In addition, the support of demand side is gradually weakened due to the influence of consumption off-season, so the space for upstream is limited.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
In terms of spot goods, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide is mostly around 8350-8750 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 type carbide in East China is 8850-9000 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei is 8620-8720 yuan / ton. The price of Inner Mongolia is 8400-8500 yuan / ton, which is from 8880 to 9050 yuan / ton in Hangzhou, 8900-9100 yuan / ton in Changzhou and 8850-9000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou Prices continue to rise.
In recent days, PVC futures continued to rise. The main PVC futures contract 2101 opened at 7835 yuan / ton and closed at 8125 yuan / ton on September 9. Yesterday’s settlement price was 7885 yuan / ton, up 3.04%. The trading range was 7805-8145 yuan / ton, with 297094 transactions and 230609 positions.
Regional variety and technology December 10
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8900-9100 yuan / ton
Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8850-9000 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 8620-8720 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8880-9050 yuan / ton
Upstream crude oil, on December 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell slightly, and the main contract settlement price was at $45.52/barrel, down $0.08. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.86/barrel, up $0.02. The oil price was slightly adjusted. The negative EIA inventory data and the oil well attack in Iraq were both positive and negative. The long short game led to a fall in oil prices after rising.
For ethylene, the price of ethylene in Asia has fluctuated slightly recently. As of the 9th, CFR quoted 965-975 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia, down 5 dollars / ton, while CFR Southeast Asia quoted 895-905 dollars / ton, down 5 dollars / ton. The demand for ethylene market in Europe was good, with FD northwest Europe offering 927-942 USD / T, CIF northwest Europe quotation of 934-946 USD / T, down 1 USD / T. The US ethylene market was up, with FD US $683-694 / T, up US $33 / T, and the cost support was not strong. Data analysts from the business agency predicted that the external price of ethylene would fall mainly as follows.
Calcium carbide, early December, calcium carbide Market small fluctuations rise. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business agency believe that the current shortage of supplies has not been changed, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has been pushed up, the good support of PVC continues, the spot price continues to rise, driving the plate to strengthen, the PVC market is relatively strong in the short term, there are still upward expectations, mainly high volatility.
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