1、 Price trend
According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on October 1 was 1866.67 yuan / ton, and that on December 14 was 2066.67 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%, and the market continued to rise.
According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on October 1 was 2306.67 yuan / ton, and on December 14, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 2440 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 5.78%, and the market continued to rise.
2、 Market analysis
The market of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply in the fourth quarter. Since the October double festival holiday, the price of monoammonium phosphate has generally risen, and some enterprises have closed their offer. The upward driving force in this quarter is mainly due to the rise of raw material prices, the planned maintenance of some enterprises, the tightening of supply, and the good demand for downstream compound fertilizer, which has promoted the market of No.1 phosphoric acid and the rising trading focus. The price of raw material phosphate rock rose in October, and the cost support was good. The downstream compound fertilizer also increased slightly. Monoammonium phosphate supply less, the market trend is more optimistic, the month’s increase was 3.57%. In November, the growth of monoammonium phosphate continued, and the growth slowed down in the second half of the month, showing a high consolidation, with an increase of 5.17% in the month. In December, the trend is still strong, manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, and prices continue to rise, but the enthusiasm of downstream trading turns weak, maintaining just in demand purchasing, and wait-and-see. Up to now, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 2050 – 2100 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2150-2180 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2000-2150 yuan / ton, and the price is stable temporarily.
In the fourth quarter, the market of diammonium phosphate rose, and the export improved. At the same time, some enterprises planned to overhaul, the supply was tightened, and the manufacturers’ inventory was not under pressure. In addition, winter storage was started, downstream fertilizer preparation increased, and the supply and demand side was favorable. In October, domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate was stable, and the price remained firm, with an increase of 2.17% in November. In November, the supply of goods was still tight, queuing for delivery, and the offer was firm, up 2.12% in the month. In December, the trend rose slightly, but in the near future, the export volume has declined, and traders are cautious to wait and see. The demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and DAP is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Up to now, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2400-2470 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2750-2800 yuan / ton. 64% DAP in Gansu Province was quoted 2500 yuan / T. The price of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2780-2800 yuan / ton, and the price is high.
In the first ten days of December, China’s domestic phosphate ore market was stable and slightly upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was mainly in operation. Until July 7, some low-priced phosphate ores in Guizhou Province made a small increase in the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate ore, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. The price concentration was close to the high level, and the difference between high and low prices was reduced. Most of the rest of the region phosphate ore market continued to operate stably. The year 2020 is coming to an end. The overall market situation of domestic phosphate ore is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the mine operation is low. The phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society predicts that by the end of 2020, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will be stable and the overall operation will be dominated.
3、 Future forecast
Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the fourth quarter ammonium phosphate Market by tight supply, cost support and other favorable factors, the price rose, the focus of trading moved up. At present, the fatigue psychology of the downstream is revealed, the ability to receive goods is limited, and monoammonium phosphate pursues more orders. Under the favorable support, the market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, with large and small movements. At present, DAP is mainly for export orders, and the supply of goods is tight. The demand for downstream fertilizer is stable and the fundamental changes are not big. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term and the trend will be strong.
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