1、 Price trend
In 2025, the overall DMF market in China will present a situation of oversupply, low price operation, and continuous losses in the industry. DMF prices will show a downward trend, with a 10% decline throughout the year. The highest price point was 4200 yuan/ton in February at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price point was 3800 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price range for the whole year will be between 3900-4100 yuan/ton, fluctuating in the low range throughout the year.
2、 Review of DMF Market in 2025
In 2025, the supply and demand relationship in the DMF market will continue to exceed production capacity, but the total supply will still increase. Downstream industries such as pulp and medicine will have weak demand, resulting in industry profits and widespread losses. The cumulative export volume from January to July has reached 84000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.10%. South Korea, Japan, and India are the main export destinations, and the DMF market supply capacity will significantly improve in 2025. The industry will be in a “capacity oversaturation state” throughout the year. Even if companies actively reduce production to maintain prices, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend of prices. Weak domestic demand will suppress prices, and downstream industries such as polyurethane pulp, electronics, and medicine in China will have weak demand growth. Downstream factories generally adopt a strategy of “replenishment on demand and use as needed”, which cannot provide strong support for the market. Strong exports will slow down the pressure. Driven by the decrease in domestic prices and the growth of overseas demand, The export volume of DMF has been increasing year by year, consuming domestic production capacity and easing inventory pressure.
3、 Industrial chain structure
Upstream: Basic raw materials: Methanol and synthetic ammonia are direct raw materials for the production of dimethylamine (DMA), and price fluctuations have a decisive impact on DMF costs. Enterprises with integrated production capacity of methanol and synthetic ammonia have an absolute advantage in cost control. Midstream: DMF production and supply have mature production processes, with the core being the carbonyl synthesis of dimethylamine and carbon monoxide. The industry concentration is high, and production capacity is mainly distributed in Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places. Currently, it faces serious overcapacity and homogeneous competition, with meager profits. Downstream: diversified application areas, polyurethane synthetic leather/PU Slurry: This is the largest consumer sector, accounting for over 50%. Acrylic spinning, as a solvent for wet spinning, has relatively stable demand. Pharmaceuticals and pesticides, as important organic synthesis reaction solvents, have strong demand rigidity. Emerging fields include electronic chemicals, used as PCB photoresist diluents, requiring electronic grade ultra-high purity, which is the direction with the highest added value and the greatest growth potential. Lithium ion batteries, as a potential choice for electrolyte solvents, are in the research and application exploration stage and may bring demand growth in the future.
4、 Development Trends of DMF Market in 2026:
Overall situation: Currently, there is a severe overcapacity in the domestic DMF market, and the industry’s profit margins continue to be under pressure. The market has entered a period of deep integration.
Price trend: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the low range near the cost line throughout the year, with little expectation of price increases. Downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of strong support for upward momentum.
Supply side trend: In recent years, DMF production capacity has continued to expand, and the low demand has led to the gradual elimination and integration of smaller domestic production capacity. Continued losses may force some high cost and old equipment to permanently exit the market, slowing down the expansion speed of production capacity. Against the backdrop of low efficiency of new production capacity, the decision to add new projects will be more cautious, and the expansion speed is expected to slow down.
Trend on the demand side: The market economy is slowly recovering, with traditional downstream (pulp, leather, etc.) demand dominated by rigid procurement, and emerging fields (such as electronics, lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals) experiencing slow demand. The dependence on exports is increasing. With stable demand in major export markets such as South Korea and India, exports will continue to be an important channel for capacity consumption, and the volume of exports will directly affect the domestic supply-demand balance.
competitive landscape
The domestic DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, mainly in East and North China, supplemented by Central/Northwest China, and matched with downstream polyurethane and electronic chemical clusters.
DMF production capacity
The overall trend of production capacity in 2026 is shifting from “quantity growth” to “structural optimization”, and the growth rate of total production capacity will significantly slow down or even show negative growth. The market has entered a stage of stock adjustment, and continuous losses will force some old facilities with high costs, outdated technology, and small scale to be permanently shut down. The addition of new production capacity in 2026 is relatively small, and the willingness to start new projects in the plan is low, with a high possibility of delay or cancellation. Whether top enterprises maintain or reduce production capacity will have a significant impact on the overall market supply and psychological expectations. In summary, the core theme of DMF production capacity in 2026 is “clearing” rather than “expansion”.
In terms of exports
It is expected that DMF export volume will continue to be an important support for the domestic market in 2026, but its growth rate and stability are facing challenges. Price competitiveness, domestic low-priced sources are still attractive, and the supply chain is stable. China’s mature chemical supply chain can provide stable supply, traditional demand, and manufacturing demand in major destinations such as South Korea, India, and Japan.
In terms of imports
China’s industrial grade DMF import sources: By 2025, China’s industrial grade DMF has achieved complete self-sufficiency in domestic production, with almost no large-scale import demand. Currently, China’s imported DMF is mainly high-end electronic grade, mostly from BASF in Germany, OCI in South Korea, and Mitsubishi Chemical in Japan. The global industrial grade DMF import sources are highly concentrated in China, Vietnam, and the United States. It is expected that the DMF import volume in 2026 will be 28000 to 32000 tons, about -25% year-on-year.
In terms of consumption volume
The overall consumption growth of DMF is expected to face pressure in 2026, with weak domestic traditional demand and a high dependence on exports and emerging industries. The consumption structure is expected to remain stable or slightly shrink in traditional industries (PU pulp, acrylic fiber, pharmaceuticals, etc.), making it difficult to provide incremental new industries (electronic chemicals, lithium battery solvents, etc.). Exports have become a key factor in the consumption structure, and their proportion may further increase.
technical aspects
Leading enterprises: Leveraging their funding and research and development advantages, they will invest heavily in catalyst innovation, intelligent production, and electronic product development, building technological barriers. Featured enterprises may develop expertise in purification technology or customized services for specific high-end products, achieving differentiated survival. Industry impact: Any major breakthrough in key cost reduction technologies (such as new catalysts) may reshape the industry cost curve and accelerate the clearance of outdated production capacity.
5、 Future prospects
In recent years, due to the oversupply of DMF production capacity in China, enterprises have turned their attention to the international market and actively developed export trade. The export volume of DMF is also relatively large. Currently, some foreign DMF production enterprises plan to close their existing production facilities due to environmental protection, production costs, and other factors. This also provides an opportunity for China’s DMF production enterprises to develop foreign trade. It is expected that there will still be a large export volume in China every year by 2026. With the continuous development of downstream DMF products and the increasing demand gap abroad, China’s DMF will still have great development prospects. Overall, DMF is expected to steadily rise in 2026.
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