According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of lithium carbonate in 2025 shows a V-shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the price fell all the way to near the cost line, and in the second half, it hit the bottom and rebounded steadily, rising steadily. Can lithium carbonate continue to break through and create new glory in 2026?
（1） Market Review in 2025
In the first half of the year, due to oversupply and increasing production capacity on the supply side, coupled with slow demand growth and tariff policies, the price of lithium carbonate continued to bottom out, falling from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 58000 yuan/ton by the end of June, a decrease of 24%; In the second half of the year, there will be a turning point. Firstly, the tariff war will ease, and there will be a wave of export competition in the energy storage market. Secondly, the anti internal competition policy in the new energy industry points out the elimination of outdated production capacity. Finally, under the supply shock brought by the shutdown of mines represented by Ningde Times, prices will quickly rise, reaching a 40% increase in two months; With the closure and landing of Jianxiawo, market sentiment has subsided and prices have fallen back to around 70000 yuan; Subsequently, in the third quarter, with the surge in demand for energy storage orders, the entire lithium battery industry chain exploded, providing strong support for the price of lithium carbonate, which skyrocketed and exceeded 100000 to the highest level of the year.
（2） Supply side in 2026: Expected to maintain high growth
2.1 Domestic lithium resource development continues to advance and is expected to continue to grow
By 2025, China’s lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 260000 tons. The expected new production capacity of lithium carbonate in China in 2026 is 500000 to 600000 tons.
The main new production capacity of Salt Lake in 2025
Expected to add major new production capacity in the salt lake end by 2026
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2025
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2026
The main new production capacity for lithium recycling and extraction in 2025
The new production capacity of mica end lithium carbonate in 2026 mainly comes from the technological transformation and capacity expansion of existing enterprises rather than new construction projects
2.2 Overseas new production capacity mainly focuses on low-cost projects, promoting the integration of lithium carbonate into low-cost industries
By 2025, the overseas lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 197000 tons, with South American salt lakes contributing about 76000 tons, African lithium mines contributing about 98000 tons, and Australian lithium mines contributing about 54000 tons.
By 2025, Chinese enterprises will participate in investing in key overseas projects
The expected increase in overseas lithium carbonate production capacity by 2026 is 300000 to 350000 tons, mainly from Africa (120000 to 150000 tons), South American salt lakes (70000 to 100000 tons), North America (30000 to 40000 tons), and Australia (50000 to 60000 tons).
Main regional projects
（3） Demand for lithium carbonate in 2026: rapid growth in energy storage
3.1 Slow growth in demand for power batteries
In 2025, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will slow down due to factors such as high penetration rate and high sales base of new energy vehicles, as well as slow overall sales growth of automobiles.
The total installed capacity of power batteries in China from January to November 2025 was 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
The expected installed capacity of power batteries in China in 2026 is between 680-800GWh, with a year-on-year increase of about 15-25%.
3.2 Rapid growth in energy storage demand
In 2025, China’s energy storage industry will achieve a historic breakthrough, with both the number of recruits and installed capacity setting records. The total newly installed capacity for the year was 151 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%. By 2025, the domestic energy storage recruitment volume will soar to 364GWh, an annual increase of 261%
By 2026, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will reach 194-265GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30-60%
3.3 Overseas energy storage market continues to experience high growth
In 2025, the global energy storage market will add 247 GWh of installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 23%. It is expected to add 360 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
（4） In 2025, there will be a trend of destocking in China, and by 2026, there may be a tight balance
In 2025, the Chinese lithium carbonate market will present a pattern of “surplus in the first half of the year and shortage in the second half”, with a basic balance or slight shortage of supply and demand throughout the year (-3 to+10000 tons), and inventory will continue to deplete by about 20000 to 50000 tons. It is expected to further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance by 2026.
（5） Price Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, under the conditions of high supply and explosive demand, it is expected that China’s lithium carbonate will further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance, and the price center will move up to 100000-150000 yuan/ton.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |