1、 Price trend
In 2025, the overall trend of China’s aniline market is characterized by “high opening, low decline, low volatility, and phased rebound”, with an average annual price of 9375 yuan/ton and an average price of 7945 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The annual decline is 15.25%, with a fluctuation range of 8000-9400 yuan/ton.
2、 The core driving factors of price fluctuations are:
Supply side: The concentrated release of new production capacity in 2025 is the main reason for price pressure. The 360000 tons/year aniline plant of Wanhua Phase II was put into operation on March 31. Although it initially operated at low load, it had a significant impact on market psychology. At the same time, the overall operating rate of the industry remains at a high level of 78-86%, and supply pressure continues to exist.
Cost side: The fluctuation of pure benzene prices directly affects the cost of aniline. The price of pure benzene will fluctuate between 5300-7900 yuan/ton in 2025, with an average price of 6459 yuan/ton from January to September, a decrease of 22.26% compared to the average price in 2024. The significant drop in the price of pure benzene provides downward space for the price of aniline, but also limits the height of price rebound.
Demand side: The weak demand for downstream MDI is the fundamental reason for price pressure. Affected by the sustained downturn in the real estate market, the demand for MDI in the fields of building insulation and furniture has declined, and the MDI operating rate has fallen from its high at the beginning of the year to around 62%, directly affecting the demand for aniline.
Sudden event: International events have had a pulsating impact on prices. In the second quarter of 2025, the BASF Ludwigshafen plant explosion caused the price of aniline to temporarily rise to $1480 per ton, an increase of 41%. The March Red Sea shipping crisis led to a 25% increase in aniline freight rates on the Asia Europe route and an 18% increase in landed price fluctuations. Although these external events have a short impact time, they have amplified the magnitude of price fluctuations.
3、 Outlook and Forecast of Aniline Market in 2026
Price trend prediction: It is expected that the price of aniline will fluctuate within the range of 8000-10000 yuan/ton in 2026, with a slight increase of 5-8% in average price compared to 2025. Main judgment criteria: Firstly, the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down, and the expected new production capacity in 2026 is only 25000 tons, far lower than the 540000 tons in 2025; Secondly, cost support has been strengthened. With the stabilization and recovery of crude oil prices, pure benzene prices are expected to rebound, providing cost support for aniline prices; Thirdly, demand is gradually recovering. With the stabilization of the real estate market and the release of downstream replenishment demand, the demand for major downstream products such as MDI is expected to stop falling and rebound. : The supply-demand imbalance in China’s aniline market will be alleviated to some extent by 2026, but there will still be pressure. It is expected that the annual production will be about 4.2 million tons, with a demand of about 4 million tons and a supply-demand gap of about 200000 tons, which is significantly narrower than the 350000 tons in 2025. On the supply side, with the gradual withdrawal of outdated production capacity and rational investment by enterprises, the speed of capacity expansion will significantly slow down; On the demand side, driven by stable growth policies, downstream demand is expected to moderately recover.
Overall, in 2026, the Chinese aniline market is expected to show a development trend of “steady improvement and intensified differentiation”. Looking ahead to 2026, the main factors affecting the aniline market are still concentrated in changes in supply, demand, and cost. Market prices may show a trend of weak first and then strong, with an expected narrow decline in annual average prices compared to 2025. From the supply side, Nanjing Chemical’s 300000 tons/year and Fujian Wanhua’s 360000 tons/year aniline plants will still be put into operation in 2026, which will promote an increase in aniline supply. On the demand side, the downstream MDI growth rate has slowed down, but there is an increase in demand for additives, and the total demand growth rate may be lower than the supply growth rate. Export variables are still a key indicator affecting market prices.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |