1、 Review of Antimony Ingot Market in 2025
In 2025, the antimony ingot market will exhibit the characteristics of “rising and falling, and fluctuating at a high level” under the triple logic resonance of “supply rigidity+demand expansion+policy regulation”. From a global perspective, the supply and demand gap of antimony will widen to 34000-39000 tons by 2025, reaching a new high in nearly 5 years. The price difference between domestic and foreign antimony ingots has once exceeded 80%, and the domestic antimony ingot price is significantly higher than the international market, highlighting the comprehensive strategic resource attributes.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in 2025, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market first surged significantly, then fluctuated and fell back. The overall market fluctuated and rose throughout the year, with an average price of 140250 yuan/ton on January 1 and 162000 yuan/ton on December 30, a cumulative increase of 15.51%.
Rapid surge from January to March: On January 1st, the average price was 140250 yuan/ton, and in mid March, it surged to about 230000 yuan/ton (an increase of over 64%). In the first quarter, the domestic antimony mining quota tightened, and the import volume declined at the same time. The domestic antimony ingot supply tightened, and the supply side showed strong positive performance. At the same time, the downstream photovoltaic industry’s stocking demand was released. With the joint support of supply and demand, the price of antimony ingots quickly rose.
Fluctuated decline from April to December: Prices gradually declined after March, closing at 162000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with a decrease of about 30%. The main reason is the phased destocking of photovoltaic glass, weak demand for antimony oxide, lack of demand support, insufficient upward momentum in antimony ingot prices, cooling market sentiment, and a return to supply and demand fundamentals.
From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on an overall upward trend for 25 years, with a total of 6 months of upward movement and 6 months of downward movement (a 6.76% drop in December), with the largest increase in March at 44.37% and the largest decrease in June at 13.46%.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing the Antimony Ingot Market in 2026:
Supply side: Continuously tight due to multiple constraints
Production: Due to environmental restrictions and depletion of mining resources, China’s antimony ingot production from January to November 2025 will be about 60000 tons, a decrease of about 16% compared to the same period last year. The main production areas of Hunan and Guangxi account for over 70% of the production, and the newly added production capacity will be less than 5000 tons. The domestic antimony mining quota will be reduced by 15% compared to 2024, with 40% of small-scale mines being shut down for environmental protection, and the supply elasticity in the main production areas will decrease. The domestic antimony mining quota for 2026 is expected to continue the tightening trend of 2025, coupled with further increases in environmental compliance costs, making it difficult for small-scale mines to resume production, and limiting the release of production capacity in major production areas (Hunan, Guangxi). It is expected that the domestic production of antimony ingots in the 26th year will be basically the same as in the 25th year, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap through domestic capacity expansion.
Import: Customs statistics show that the import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China from January to November 2025 was 32655.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. The highest import volume in January 2025 was 4543 tons, and the lowest import volume in March 2025 was 1483 tons. The overall import volume is lower than the same period last year, and the overall supply of antimony ore in China is still tight. The significant year-on-year contraction in the import volume of concentrate in 2025 has directly strengthened the supply constraints of the domestic antimony ingot market, becoming one of the core factors driving the price surge at the beginning of the year and supporting the central rise of prices throughout the year. However, the fluctuation in import structure has also exacerbated the market’s periodic fluctuations. At present, global antimony ore resources are scarce and the grade continues to decline. China’s main importing countries, such as Russia and Myanmar, have limited capacity release. Russia, as China’s core source of imports, has a certain degree of uncertainty in supply stability, while traditional supplying countries such as Myanmar and Thailand may continue to have low import volumes. It is expected that the import volume of antimony concentrate will not significantly increase by 2026, making it difficult to alleviate the shortage of domestic raw materials.
Demand side: Conventional demand tends to be stable, and photovoltaic performance is impressive
In the traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame retardant materials account for about 47%, lead-acid batteries account for about 13%, polyester catalysis accounts for about 10%, and emerging demand accounts for about 31%. At present, emerging demand has become the core incremental engine driving the growth of antimony demand, among which photovoltaic glass is the absolute mainstay. Antimony, as an essential clarifying agent raw material (sodium pyroantimonate) in photovoltaic glass production, is irreplaceable. In the future, the main increment of antimony metal will appear in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: In terms of domestic demand, downstream manufacturing industries such as plastic products and rubber are thriving, and the demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant field is increasing. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of domestic demand for antimony oxide in 2026 will not be too significant, and the overall performance will be relatively stable. In terms of exports: With the gradual recovery of overseas market demand in recent times and the expected marginal adjustment of domestic export control policies, the export volume of antimony oxide is expected to rebound, which can indirectly drive the demand for antimony ingot procurement.
Photovoltaic: With the rapid growth of the domestic photovoltaic industry, the market is also optimistic about the future use of antimony in the photovoltaic industry. At present, the global growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity exceeds 30%, and the penetration rate of double glass modules is over 60%. The production capacity of photovoltaic glass is accelerating, and the proportion of antimony used in the photovoltaic field will rise to over 25%, which will further increase. In the future, the photovoltaic field is expected to become the largest source of demand.
3、 Market forecast for antimony ingots in 2026:
In 2025, the price of 1 # antimony ingots in China will operate within the historical absolute high range, with an average annual price of 180000 to 190000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of over 90%; It climbed to a historical peak of 24000-265000 yuan/ton around April, and fell back to 160000 to 170000 yuan/ton at the end of the year due to the temporary weakening of demand, still significantly higher than the historical cycle price.
In 2026, Business Society predicts that the antimony ingot market will show a short-term upward trend and a long-term central upward trend. The core of the upward trend is the rigid contraction of the supply side and the continuous expansion of emerging demand. The supply-demand gap will further widen, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The domestic mining quota on the supply side continues to tighten, and the release of production capacity in the main production areas of Hunan and Guangxi is restricted; The total import volume of antimony concentrate is difficult to increase, and it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of raw materials in the short term; The concentrated release of stocking demand from demand side photovoltaic glass enterprises, coupled with the repair of antimony oxide exports, has driven the procurement of antimony ingots and increased downstream willingness to replenish inventory.
In the short term, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches from January to March, the release of downstream market stocking demand will bring about a wave of upward trend. Driven by the peak demand for photovoltaics from April to June, market prices will maintain a high and fluctuating trend.
In the long run, the global antimony resource grade is declining and production capacity growth is weak; Emerging demands such as photovoltaics and semiconductors continue to expand, and the supply-demand gap is widening year by year. Scarcity and strategic attributes will drive prices into a long-term upward channel, especially the proportion of high-purity antimony demand will increase, and the antimony ingot market will continue to operate strongly.
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