1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of steam coal is mainly stable this week. On December 7, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 662.75 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the average price of steam coal was maintained at about 691.25 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 24.27%. On December 13, the commodity index of steam coal was 83.28, unchanged with yesterday, 19.15% lower than the highest point of 103.01 (2011-11-15) and 86.31% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of production areas, supply and demand of main production areas are still tight, and coal mine mouth operating rate has reached a relatively high point under the support of supply policy. Affected by the recent safety accidents, environmental protection and other multiple factors, the signal of safety production at the end of the year was enhanced, and the coal mining volume was affected to a certain extent. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places have issued environmental protection and production restriction notices, and the supply has dropped sharply.
In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 690-710 yuan / ton. The temperature in coastal areas dropped, and the demand for heating increased seasonally. Under the condition of low temperature and rising daily consumption, the downstream terminal transportation demand is also strong. The power plant replenishment is active, and the demand for coastal terminal procurement has been released. The inventory of Beigang is low, and the problem of shortage of goods still exists. In view of the soaring spot prices and the enhanced expectation of macro-control, the coastal power plants are mainly on the wait-and-see situation, and the procurement is relatively rational. In addition, the rapid recovery of the economy makes the coal demand of coal consuming enterprises increase. In the past two months, the purchase of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving a large increase in coal demand.
Import and price: coal imports continued to decline. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in November, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, down 9.11 million tons, or 43.84 percent, compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year, and 2.055 million tons, or 14.97 percent, compared with 13.726 million tons in October. The price of anthracite coal rose by 29.0% to RMB 763.0 per ton on February, and the price of anthracite coal decreased by 11.0% to RMB 923.0 per ton on February.
Business analysts believe that steam coal still has upward momentum: at present, the main coal producing areas are still tense. Near the end of the year, environmental protection policies are more stringent, and some coal dealers report that there will still be coal such as cars. In the second downstream power plant, affected by the extremely cold weather of La Nina this winter, the temperature in the north and northeast areas is rapidly decreasing, which drives the increase of coal demand. In addition, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir maintain a low level, hydropower output decreases, and thermal power generation continues to rise. 3. The import of coal decreased. In November this year, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, down 9.11 million tons, or 43.84 percent, compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year. Because of the stoppage of loading and unloading of Australian coal, the quota of coal imported by some users was close to zero. In addition, due to “public events”, the management of ports was strengthened. 4. Affected by the domestic economic recovery, the purchase of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries continued to increase, driving a large increase in coal demand. 5. Affected by domestic policies, in order to support the domestic economy, the state has been more strict in the control of imported coal. See the downstream market demand specifically.
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