On July 8, the overall market price of styrene dropped slightly. Crude oil recovered, pure benzene dropped slightly, ethylene remained stable, and styrene cost remained unchanged. The restart and maintenance of styrene plant are mutual, but the new production is delayed, and the output increase is less than expected. As of July 4, Jiangsu had 803 (+ 22600) tons of social inventory and 568 (+ 22100) tons of commodity inventory. The centralized inventory in Hong Kong rose last week, but this week was limited in Hong Kong. If the pick-up is maintained, the inventory may go to the warehouse slightly. Under the long short game, styrene is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Downstream, PS, EPS, ABS prices temporarily stable. EPS terminal demand is weak, operation rate rises slightly, and styrene procurement is cautious. PS operating rate fell slightly, but the purchase of styrene spot only appeared when the price was low. ABS operating rate fell, but Taihua and Haijiang will restart this week, starting is expected to pick up, terminal demand is weak in the off-season. To sum up, the short-term styrene cost support is strong, the supply increment is less than expected, and the short-term styrene market is still in a strong shock stage.

Today, the price of styrene in Shandong was lowered to 9350-9500 yuan / ton.

In June, the NBR market was basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of NBR was 20800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 20900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall end of the month slightly increased by 0.48% compared with the beginning of the month.

The domestic supply side of NBR is basically stable, the ex factory price of NBR has been increased, but the demand side is still relatively weak. It is understood that the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile rose in June. As of June 30, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 18500 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 19600 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 20500 yuan / ton. In June, the downstream of NBR started low-level on-demand procurement, and the offer of traders was basically stable.

In June, the price of butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of butadiene was 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of June and 8852 yuan / ton at the end of June, with an overall increase of 18.68%.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of the business community believe that the supply side of NBR is stable at present, while the cost side goes up substantially. It is expected that NBR will be strongly supported by the cost in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on June 30 was 5833.33 yuan / ton, down 5.66% from 61833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 19.86% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the phosphoric acid market rose first and then declined, and then the price gradually fell, with a decline of more than 5% in the whole month. In June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was as high as around 25000 yuan / ton. Supported by the cost, the phosphoric acid market kept pace with the rise, and the quotations of some enterprises were as high as 7000 yuan / ton. Since the middle of the year, with the rising of raw material yellow phosphorus enterprises, the high price has come down to below 20000 yuan / ton, and the phosphoric acid market has also gone down. But the wait-and-see attitude has not decreased. At present, the price is mostly in the range of 5500-6500 yuan / ton, Mainly for old customers. Near the end of the month, the security inspection is more strict, or affect the trading atmosphere in some areas, and the price continues to weaken. According to the monitoring of business agency, the quotation in Sichuan is 5500-5700 yuan / ton, in Yunnan is 6400-6700 yuan / ton, in Hubei is 5900-6500 yuan / ton, in Tianjin is 6200 yuan / ton, in Jiangsu is 6000-6600 yuan / ton, in Shandong is 5600-5800 yuan / ton, and the price of phosphoric acid in various places is gradually reduced.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 30, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas in China was around 530 yuan / ton, which was increased by 20 yuan / ton or 3.92% compared with the price on June 1 (510 yuan / ton). At present, the overall domestic phosphate rock market is stable at a high level, and the downstream demand is normal. The transaction of Guizhou and other phosphate ore mines is good. The phosphate ore analysts of the business association predict that in July, the domestic phosphate ore market will be mainly high consolidation operation.

Yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus fell this month. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan have resumed production, but the recovery of the furnace is very limited. At the end of the month, the downstream construction started to improve, the stock of goods increased, and the supply of yellow phosphorus in the overall market tended to be tight. The price of yellow phosphorus showed some signs of rebound, but the price of yellow phosphorus had been declining in the early stage, and the decline rate began to slow down last week. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19200-22000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Sichuan is about 19800-20000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Guizhou is about 19300-19500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, in July, the cost pressure gradually eased, and the market price of phosphoric acid dropped. In addition, due to strict environmental protection and safety, the shipment in some areas may be limited, and the enterprises will give up profits to ship. It is expected that the market will be weak in the short term, or there may be a further downward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On June 27, the price of mixed xylene was 5880 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 4) was 5920 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton or 0.68% from last week; It was 60.87% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil prices remained high, with good support, but domestic demand for mixed xylene was insufficient, with limited growth. Within the week, due to the limitation of automobile transportation in the northern region, the market turnover decreased, and the price remained weak and volatile. In terms of external market, as of July 2, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 780.5 US dollars / ton, down 12 US dollars / ton, or 1.51%, compared with June 25; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $801 / T, down US $5 / T or 0.62% on June 25.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil inventories continue to decline. OPEC + may start to increase production in August, but no agreement has been reached on the latest policy. International oil prices are mixed. On June 25, Brent fell 0.01% to a new $0.01/barrel; WTI rose $1.11 per barrel, or 1.5%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, 9.23% higher than last week, 47.92% higher than last year. As of July 2, closing prices in Asia were $903-905 / T FOB Korea and $921-923 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fell in shock this week. On Friday (July 2), the price was 5087.27 yuan / ton, down 1.4% from last week and up 40.19% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (July 2), the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 39.01% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, and the support of p-xylene is good; Downstream PX market is good, or more mixed xylene market has a certain drive. Overall, the recovery of automobile transportation in the northern region may have some support for the mixed xylene market, with the possibility of rising. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, xylene plant maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline market).

Mainstream manufacturers control the rhythm of spot delivery and the impact of transportation in some regions. At present, spot supply is in short supply. Major manufacturers mainly deliver contracts and early orders, and few new orders are offered. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of July 2, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 18075 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 8.37% and a year-on-year increase of 127.07%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is around 17800-18200 yuan / ton, while the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 17800-18500 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, all the units are running stably, and the overall supply has little change. However, due to the factory’s control of the delivery rhythm of spot goods and the influence of transportation in some areas, the spot goods on the floor are in short supply. The main manufacturers mainly deliver contracts and early orders, and there are few new orders to offer. They usually wait for the anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China to offer again. Some traders have a strong atmosphere of speculation, and they have heard more than 20000 quotations.

In terms of devices, the 60000 T / a BDO load of Shaanxi Ronghe is 60%, and its downstream 20000 t GBL device is being restarted, so there is no spot price. Sichuan Tianhua BDO phase I 25000 T / A and phase II 60000 T / a units are in full load operation. It is mainly used for downstream PTMEG and GBL.

Some of the devices will be overhauled, and the factory will continue to control the delivery rhythm. The tense situation of spot goods on the floor continues, and the main manufacturers are reluctant to sell and report high. At the same time, the transmission of PTMEG, GBL and other industrial chains in downstream industries is acceptable, and Kaixiang PBT device plans to restart to support the market mentality. BDO business analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic BDO market high consolidation.