Price trend of spot precious metals

According to business news agency data, on December 30, the average price of silver in the morning market was 5477.67 yuan / kg, up 16.18% from the average price of 4715 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); the average price of silver in the morning market was 4376.33 yuan / kg, up 25.17% from the beginning of the year (01.01); the average price of silver in the morning market was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 86.15% from the trough of the year (3.19); the peak value of silver in the year (8.11) The spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg, down 18.35%.

On December 30, the spot price of gold was 391.30 yuan / g, an increase of 4.99% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (12.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), an increase of 14.23%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, an increase of 17.19%; the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g, a decrease of 12.66%.

In December, the price of precious metals returned to the rising trend, mainly due to:

The development trend of overseas epidemic in winter has not been significantly curbed, especially the discovery of new virus strains, coupled with the poor data of the number of confirmed cases, resulting in the expected benefits of the vaccine greatly reduced;

On the policy side, the news that the United States signed a US bail-out bill to legislate a US $2.3 trillion plan, combined with the continued depreciation of the US dollar, led to a surge in the demand for gold in terms of anti inflation and hedging.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this month. The average price of isopropanol in China was 10366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and 7966.67 yuan / ton as of the 25th of this month. The price was reduced by 23.15% in this month.

2、 Market analysis

Isopropanol prices fell this month. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on December 22, while that in Europe was basically stable. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 7600-8000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 7900-8000 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 7900 yuan / ton. Raw material acetone continued to decline, cost side down pressure isopropanol downstream market mentality, downstream orders cautious, buying enthusiasm is limited. In recent days, the domestic isopropanol market has been weak and the atmosphere on the floor is empty.

In terms of raw material acetone, the negotiation focus of acetone market fell sharply this month. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic price of acetone was 9450 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the average price was 7550 yuan / ton as of the 25th of this month. The price of acetone decreased by 20.11%. In addition, the price of acetone in the market is expected to drop significantly after the closing 25 days of negotiation, although the price of acetone in the market is expected to drop significantly. At present, the mainstream market quotation on the 25th is 7550-7800 yuan / ton.

As for raw material propylene, as of December 25, the market price of propylene in Shandong generally declined. The market turnover is between 7800-8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7800-7850 yuan / ton. The current inventory is general, the price of crude oil fluctuates mainly, and the downstream market is slightly cold, so it is expected that the propylene price will continue to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think that: the raw material acetone has been greatly reduced, and the cost side has been declining, which has depressed the mentality of the downstream market of isopropanol; the price reduction of raw material propylene is limited, and the propene method isopropanol is not willing to follow. Under the market tug of war, the decline of isopropanol is expected to be limited.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 28, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7833.33 yuan / ton. The overall price trend of domestic DMF market was stable, with just need purchasing as the main part, general negotiation atmosphere, contract orders as the main part, and limited number of new orders.

The market price of DMF is stable, the focus of negotiation is large and small, the downstream demand is general, the purchase is just needed, the transaction atmosphere is cautious, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. At present, there is no pressure on inventory, the shipment is normal, most of them are contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, the equipment of various manufacturers is running stably, some manufacturers continue to reduce the price, as of December 28, the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton.

Due to the influence of winter weather, the freight price increases, the profit margin is limited, the shipment is smooth, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the short-term consolidation is mainly narrow.

On December 27, the chemical industry index was 855 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.85% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.98% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe: in the short term, the focus of the DMF market is stable. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business DMF analysts. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 25, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 22666 yuan / ton, down 6333 yuan / ton compared with the price of the previous day (24 days), with a daily drop of 21.84%; compared with the price of the beginning of the month (33333 yuan / ton on December 1), the average quoted price was down 10677 yuan / ton, with a drop of 32%.

Demand weakened, silicone DMC market continued to fall in December

In December, the trend of organosilicon DMC’s soaring has eased. The firm offer for nearly two months has made the downstream industry strongly resist high prices. The wait-and-see mood of the downstream industry has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has also declined. Therefore, on the 2nd of the first month, the leading manufacturers of Shandong organosilicon DMC took the lead in reducing the ex factory offer of organosilicon DMC by 2000 yuan / ton. As of the 13th, the ex factory offer of organosilicon DMC has declined The reference is 32000-33000 yuan / ton. In the following week, some silicone factories lowered their DMC ex factory quotation twice, with a reduction range of 1000-5500 yuan / ton within one week. As of the 21st, the market mainstream quotation was around 28000-30000 yuan / ton. After the decline of silicone DMC, there was no large-scale replenishment in the lower reaches, and most of them were still waiting to fall.

On the 25th, individual manufacturers of silicone DMC in Shandong sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of DMC to 22000 yuan / ton, down by 5000 yuan / ton. The rest of the factories also began to reduce the profit and shipment, and gradually reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For a time, “the market dropped a lot”, and the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC was around 22000-23000 yuan / ton. As of December 25, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 22666 yuan / ton, down 6333 yuan / ton compared with the price of the previous day (December 24), with a daily drop of 21.84%; compared with the price of the beginning of the month (December 1, reference price of 33333 yuan / ton), the average quoted price was down 10677 yuan / ton, with a drop of 32%.

After the price drops to a relatively low level, the market will maintain stability

At present, the domestic market of silicone DMC has fallen sharply. After a few days, it has fallen to a relatively low space, and new downstream orders have been followed up. Therefore, the silicone DMC Data Engineer of business society thinks that the market of silicone DMC will continue to fall in the short term, and the space is limited, and most of them will maintain stable operation.

Price trend:

All kinds of resistance in 2020 did not stop the rapid development of domestic rubber and plastic industry. According to the big data list of business agency, most of the plastic products developed well this year. Among many brother products, this year’s PA6 is not so obvious. As of December 23, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises of business cooperatives to Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 13100 yuan / ton, which was 3.42% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the year. It was hard to return to the price level at the beginning of the year.

Factor analysis:

In fact, at the beginning of 2020, the domestic spot price of PA6 is on a good start, and caprolactam bottoms out and recovers after a big drop in upstream. In addition, due to the lack of supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the price rise of caprolactam brand boosted the confidence in the market and started the rising mode. The rise of raw materials led PA6 manufacturers to generally increase their quotations. The market was preparing goods before the festival, and the demand for PA6 also increased to a certain extent. Due to the impact of the epidemic, with the advent of the extended version of the Spring Festival, PA6 production and sales nearly stagnated. In February, the resumption of relevant work was slow, the inventory of slicing enterprises could not be digested, and logistics transportation encountered resistance. Multiple factors affected market confidence, and the center of quotation fell rapidly, with a decline of 21.51% from the end of February to the beginning of April. Businessmen are pessimistic and slow in trading.

After three months of decline, the market began to pick up in early May. The main advantage of the market is still from the cost side, caprolactam supply into tight, prices rose sharply, the whole month in May rose as high as 16.21%. With the easing of the epidemic situation, the crude oil chemical market rebounded, and the pure benzene market was pushed up by the favorable crude oil and external market. The mentality improvement of downstream buyers of PA6 is limited. Under the support of strong cost, some polymerization plants and businesses still have low-cost single operation, and the spot price may still be paying for the expansion of PA6 production in 2019.

The continuous lack of demand led to the gradual increase of PA6 inventory. In July, domestic PA6 inventory was running at a high level, and there was a risk of continuous accumulation. At the same time, the raw material market fell. Although crude oil had strong support for pure benzene in the early stage and caprolactam was supported at the bottom of the market, the supply was sufficient, and the demand of polymerization plant decreased, and the overall market was weak. Affected by multiple negative effects of PA6 spot price continued to “drift green”, businesses actively shipping, so that the margin offer reduced positions. Business bearish after the market, the market mentality even affected the traditional peak season.

Delayed peak season

In September, the trend of PA6 market continued to be weak. In terms of textile, the transaction of high-speed spinning chips was particularly slow, and the situation that downstream factories were still stocked up was common in conventional spinning. Shipping resistance as always, only the overall operating rate of nylon filament increased, good PA6 price. With the consumption of inventory, PA6 spot price guidance began to appear in October. The purchase and sales of home appliance enterprises and automobile enterprises increased significantly, and the operating rate of nylon textile enterprises continued to be high. After a year’s silence, the demand side finally made efforts, and the inventory fell rapidly, and the spot price was boosted. With the recovery growth of the domestic market, the price of PA6 has risen as high as 25.56%. It’s like a late and extended season. At the same time, the supply of caprolactam was tight at the end of the year, and the upstream and downstream were in good together, and the spot price of PA6 returned to the level at the beginning of the year.

Year end comments:

Business agency analysts believe: in 2020, domestic PA6 market will fall more and rise less, but the price will recover. The lack of long-term demand in the domestic market leads to the lack of power for PA6 to rise. Throughout the year, the mismatch between last year’s capacity increase and demand growth still has a far-reaching impact on this year. Most of the positive guidance comes from the petrochemical industry chain and from the direct upstream caprolactam. Although the fourth quarter demand side volume, but the current market is difficult to say balanced and healthy. Perhaps it will take time for PA6 industry chain to adjust its allocation.