Entering 2021, the LPG market will rise at the beginning. Shandong civil gas will go up sharply in the first week of January, and the current quotation is more than 4000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3490.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 4083.33 yuan / ton on January 7, up 17.00% in the first week and 28.95% compared with November 1.

As of January 7, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream transaction price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China: 3950-4230 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in eastern China: 4500-4510 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 4300-4550 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: RMB 4000-4300 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Northeast China: 4150-4702 yuan / ton

After the introduction of the sharp rise in CP price in Saudi Aramco in January, the LPG civil market began to increase the ex factory price significantly during the new year’s day. After the holiday, the rising route of the market remains unchanged, and the ex factory price continues to rise. At present, many plants in Shandong’s civil gas market have broken through the 4000 mark, and the price has increased by 400-700 yuan / ton compared with that before the holiday. There are many positive factors in the market, and the rising cost of the first batch of products supports the upward price. Secondly, the international crude oil rose sharply on January 5, and the news was favorable to the market mentality. At present, the weather is cooling down obviously, the terminal demand has increased, and there is also a demand for replenishment after the festival. In addition, snow has appeared in some areas during the week, so there is a certain resistance in transportation. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the market transaction atmosphere is positive, so the price rises sharply.

In terms of international crude oil, on January 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $49.93/barrel, up US $2.31 or 4.85%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the settlement price of the main contract was 53.60 US dollars / barrel, or 2.51 US dollars or 4.91%. International oil prices soared on Tuesday, with WTI and Brent crude oil up nearly 5%, mainly due to Saudi Arabia’s unexpected announcement that it will voluntarily reduce production in February and March, and other OPEC + member countries maintaining stable production.

After the festival, the main players in the LPG futures market brought obvious support to the spot market, and the futures and spot rose hand in hand. On January 7, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2102 was 3945, the highest price was 4029, the lowest price was 3933, the closing price was 3953, the former settlement price was 3957, the settlement price was 3973, down 4, or 0.10%. The trading volume was 80727, the position was 35408, and the daily increase was – 426. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the civil price of liquefied gas has risen to a relatively high level. Although the current rising trend has continued, the price has been pushed up too fast after the festival, the downstream’s acceptance capacity is limited, and it is already in conflict with the high price. The market transaction atmosphere has obviously weakened compared with the previous period. With the downstream delisting, the price may suspend the rising trend in the short term, and the horizontal consolidation is the main trend.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

According to the data of the business club, the average price of domestic propylene oxide enterprises was 10133.33 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and the average price of domestic propylene oxide enterprises was 18900 yuan / ton by December 31, 2020, with an increase of 86.51%. The lowest price was 7266.67 yuan / ton on April 7, and the highest price was 19300 yuan / ton on November 24, with the maximum amplitude of 165.60%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of propylene oxide from January to December in 2020, the overall price of propylene oxide showed a downward trend in the first quarter and October, and rose in other months. The biggest monthly rise was in September, with an overall rise of 37.56%, and the biggest monthly decline was in March, with an overall decline of 13.65%.

2、 Market analysis

Weak downward trend (January to March): in the first quarter, the price of raw propylene showed a downward trend as a whole, which weakened the support for the cost of propylene oxide. Under the influence of public health events, inter regional transportation restrictions and terminal enterprises resumed work slowly. In March, the market gradually recovered, but the downstream demand was weak, and propylene oxide fell by 23.03% in the first quarter as a whole.

The price of propylene oxide fell to the lowest level in the year (7266.67 yuan / ton) in early April. Then, driven by the sharp rise of propylene, the price rose sharply. The overall market fluctuated and rose in April. From May to June, the price trend of propylene oxide rose more or less. In July, with the large quantity of downstream polyether orders, the demand side steadily supported the price rise, and propylene oxide started to work in August In September, the market price of propylene oxide continued to rise, the factory had no accumulation, the downstream conduction was active, the volume price chase was steady, the main offer continued to push up, and the price of propylene oxide rose 143.10% from April to September.

Price downturn (October): in late October, Po supply increased in the short term, and the prices of mainstream manufacturers decreased, seeking to stabilize and go to the warehouse. However, the downstream risk aversion and wait-and-see sentiment were strong, the inventory accumulated slowly, the manufacturers gave up profits to ship, and the price downward channel opened.

Overall shock upward (November December): in November, prices rebounded after falling, demand supported the market, manufacturers had no pressure, prices continued to rise, hitting the year’s highest point (19300 yuan / ton). On the 25th, market news was long or short, mentality game, price depression in the middle and lower reaches remained unchanged, holding weak wait-and-see, and market negotiations declined. In December, most Po manufacturers in Shandong reduced their burden, the overall supply of the market was tight, the manufacturers had no pressure, and the inventory in the middle and lower reaches was low. They just needed to follow up and stabilize, supporting the continuous rise of prices.

Import and export: according to customs statistics, the cumulative import volume of propylene oxide in China from January to November 2020 is 428793.068 tons, and the cumulative export volume is 4106.151 tons.

3、 Future forecast:

To sum up, the price of propylene oxide will rise sharply in 2020, which is mainly supported by the relationship between supply and demand, as well as the impact of raw material prices in the first half of the year. Entering 2021, the current propylene oxide Market is relatively strong, manufacturers are still under no pressure, and the main middle and downstream procurement is stable. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will go down in 2020. The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will go down sharply in 2020. The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will be 10240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 9530 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual decrease of 6.93%. According to the price trend chart, the lowest price of the whole year will appear on November 27, the average market price will be 8400 yuan / ton, and the highest price of the whole year will appear on March 28 The average market price is 11520 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of hydrofluoric acid Market in 2020 is 27.08%.

The trend of hydrofluoric acid in 2020 can be roughly divided into four stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rises; the second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of May, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid price drops sharply; the third stage is from the beginning of June to the end of November, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fluctuates at a low level; the fourth stage is from the beginning of December to the end of December, when the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rises The specific upward trend is as follows:

In the first stage, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid increased from 10240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 11520 yuan / ton at the end of March, with an increase of 12.50%. The price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply. Firstly, during the period of maintenance of some domestic devices, the delivery situation of manufacturers on the site has improved. Affected by the public health time, some manufacturers have not resumed production. In addition, the transportation is limited. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises in the downstream Spring Festival has not been shut down, and the purchase demand has increased Go higher. Second, the upstream raw material fluorite products brought good support. At this stage, the start-up situation of fluorite plants was low, and the fluorite plants in Inner Mongolia and Hebei provinces were temporarily started. On the whole, the fluorite supply was tight, the fluorite price rose, and the higher upstream fluorite price had a great positive impact on hydrofluoric acid, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply. The third is that the market price of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has risen. Recently, the trading market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has turned well. At present, the automobile industry is gradually returning to work, the domestic R22 supply is normal, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 has risen. The start-up load of manufacturers’ production devices is still not high, the market supply situation is general, and the downstream air conditioning manufacturers stop more, and the demand changes little The mainstream price of domestic large enterprises is 16500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, and the downstream market has improved, which is also a good support for the high price of hydrofluoric acid market.

The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of May, when the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply, from 11320 yuan / ton in early April to 8630 yuan / ton on May 31, a decrease of 23.76%. There are two main reasons for the decline of market price of hydrofluoric acid during this period. First, with the gradual warming of temperature, domestic fluorite enterprises began to work gradually, and the operating rate of fluorite increased. The domestic mines and flotation units started to work more, which increased the spot supply of fluorite in the yard, and the supply of fluorite in the yard was sufficient, and the domestic fluorite price fell. In addition, the fluorite manufacturers in the North began to work gradually, the domestic fluorite supply increased, the fluorite price on the floor declined, and the upstream raw materials fell sharply, which was a big negative effect on the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Second, the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60% in the near future. Enterprises reflect that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the downstream market is not good, and the market demand for hydrofluoric acid is weakened. Recently, due to the decline of downstream market price and the decline of upstream fluorite price, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline. Recently, most manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid has serious losses, and the overall price is low In view of this, domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices fell sharply due to bad news.

The third stage is from the beginning of June to the end of November. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market fluctuates from 8630 yuan / ton at the beginning of June to 8360 yuan / ton at the end of November, with a decrease of 3.13%. During this period, the price of hydrofluoric acid market fluctuates mainly. Recently, the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. The enterprises reflect that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, but the downstream market has not improved significantly. The market demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. Recently, due to the stable price trend of downstream market and little change of upstream fluorite price, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable. Recently, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid still exists The market price of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable due to the loss and the absence of market price in some areas. Generally speaking, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has no obvious positive support in the near future, and the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level. In addition, affected by public health events, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry is poor. On the one hand, the domestic demand is not good, and the refrigerant industry starts to maintain below 30%, which is not good for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand. On the other hand, recently, the export of refrigerants has been restricted to a certain extent. The overseas epidemic situation is serious, and the export of refrigerants has fallen sharply, resulting in the low price of the domestic refrigerants industry. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry is depressed, the market price of the refrigerant downstream of the terminal is depressed, the foreign special events are serious, the export of the refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and the domestic air conditioning industry starts low, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. On the whole, the domestic and foreign demand is less than expected. The price of refrigerants dropped sharply. In addition, the downstream industry was not active in purchasing and the demand was poor. The price of refrigerants was low. The price of hydrofluoric acid was low due to bad news.

The fourth stage is from the beginning of December to the end of December, when the market price of hydrofluoric acid returns to the rising stage, with an overall increase of 11.85% in December. In recent years, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid has maintained a high level, and the domestic fluorite ex factory price is about 2700 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite plant has declined in operation, and the mine and flotation plant in the yard have been shut down. The supply of fluorite in the yard is tight. The high price of fluorite is a good support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the transaction market of terminal downstream refrigerant market has risen slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock up cycle, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic R22 market price has risen, the start-up load of manufacturers’ production devices is still not high, the market supply capacity has declined, and the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’ maintenance has little change in demand, but the supply is tight, and the price of domestic large enterprises is low The current rose to 12500-15500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market has not changed much, and the operating rate of production enterprises has remained low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stocking cycle, the demand for R134a has slightly improved, the downstream market has improved, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded and gone up. In addition, in recent years, some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants have been shut down for maintenance, the operating rate of hydrofluoric acid plants in the yard has declined, the supply of hydrofluoric acid in the yard is tight, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen sharply.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid industry chain in 2020 is as follows:

In 2020, the market of fluorine chemical industry will be weak. From fluorite to hydrofluoric acid, the downstream refrigerant industry will decline in different procedures. The fluorine chemical industry will be in recession, and the terminal demand will not be significantly improved, so the market trend will decline.

Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business society, believes that in the short term, the start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is not high, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly tight, and the market is good. In addition, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is relatively normal, and the price of downstream refrigerant industry has a rising trend. In addition, fluorite enterprises have obvious price support intention, and the price may maintain a small rising trend in early 2021. In the long run, with the advent of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, the manufacturers in the domestic refrigerant industry will prepare the goods and gradually start up the refrigerant units for maintenance. At that time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise, and the price may remain at about 11500 yuan / ton. With the end of the peak sales season of the refrigeration industry, it is expected that the upward pressure on the hydrofluoric acid market will increase in the second and third quarters, or the price will gradually fall down to 8000 yuan / T, and the price may rise in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to be 9500-10500 yuan / T.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. Now the average price of Shandong market is 485 yuan / ton, which is 1.02% lower than the average price of 490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 23.32% lower than the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on December 30 was 69.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.27% from 206.87 (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.17% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of caustic soda is not supported by favorable factors. The overall caustic soda market is weak, the conversation atmosphere is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow consolidation of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 1400-1500 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The lower reaches purchase more on demand, the market atmosphere is not good, and the transaction follow-up of the lower reaches is weak.

Demand: downstream. Affected by the severe pollution weather warning in the north, alumina enterprises reduced production more. The new year’s Day holiday is approaching, and the purchase intention of papermaking, printing and dyeing is low. The downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. As of last Thursday, the weighted average operating load of sample enterprises in major regions of China was 80.11%, down 1.34 percentage points from last week. The overall start-up of caustic soda continued at a high level.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise, 3 kinds of commodities that fall, and 2 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities falling were: PVC (- 6.74%), light soda (- 5.71%), hydrochloric acid (- 1.64%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2020, the national caustic soda output was 3.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. From January to November, the cumulative national caustic soda output was 32.858 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable with little change in the cost side. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 15726.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.01% compared with the average price of 16996.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 8.06% compared with the average price of 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and an increase of 39.96% compared with the valley price of 11230 yuan / ton at the end of the year (March 24).

Monthly rise and fall in 2020

Future view basis

1. The consumption of aluminum ingots is expected to weaken in the early stage of the Spring Festival. Affected by the shutdown factors in the downstream of the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption of aluminum ingots may have a slight drop. At present, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is hovering on the 600000 ton line, with a slight rebound trend.

2. In terms of investment, the total position of Hulai shows a downward trend, the willingness of bulls to stop profits is strengthened, and some non industrial funds are withdrawn towards the end of the year.

3. The domestic new production capacity is not much. At present, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively high, the price of internal and external market is upside down, and the demand for imported aluminum ingots is strong.

Future conclusions

The overall low inventory and domestic new production capacity is not much, which benefits the aluminum price; raw material side, alumina price is good, the prebaked anode market is stable as a whole, the cost side benefits the aluminum ingot price to a certain extent, based on the current profit is fair, the cost side impact factor is small; in the later stage, it is expected that the impact of limiting production, electricity and gas will expand, the downstream construction will gradually decline, and the downstream consumption will weaken near the end of the year, which is bad for aluminum Price. It is expected that the recent aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust, and the consolidation probability is high.