Commodity index: on March 30, the commodity index of polyacrylamide was 93.38, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.83% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 12.66% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
The data show that the ten days after the Spring Festival holiday in 2021 is the period of the highest market price up to now; affected by the sharp rise in the cost of acrylonitrile, the market price of polyacrylamide once rose by about 10%, and then gradually weakened. By the last week of March, the accumulated price reduction of two times was 300 yuan / ton, and this month it was reported to be 15950 yuan / ton. Since the 19th of this month, all water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have stopped production for rectification according to the local environmental protection policy. Up to now, it has been nearly half a month. The inventory is fair and the supply of goods is sufficient. The current market is mainly stable. From March to 31, domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionicity 10-30) polyacrylamide cation quoted 14583.33 yuan / ton on the first day, which went up to 15316 yuan / ton on the 13th in a row, and then decreased slightly, closing at 15166.67 yuan / ton on the 31st daily, with a monthly increase of 4%.
Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, especially since the Spring Festival. The domestic price has reached the highest point in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 was 12100 yuan / ton, and the daily quotation on March 10 was 16500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; however, due to the recent impact of the upstream price reduction, the price of 1 On the 5th, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the price was reduced by about 100 yuan / ton. In March, the domestic mainstream market price was closed at 15900-15950 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the maintenance of domestic manufacturers has been delayed, and Haijiang’s products have been sold abroad, so the supply has increased, and the downstream has resistance to high prices, so the possibility of price rise is not great; main devices: Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a 130000 ton production line from March 22 to 29; Shandong Haijiang’s acrylonitrile products have gradually begun to be sold abroad, and about 90% of the units have started operation at present.
Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the price was about 3983 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 10%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.
Downstream demand: from the Spring Festival holiday to the middle of March, the cost of polyacrylamide, as a downstream product, has increased significantly due to the impact of the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices. The water treatment engineering manufacturers are stopping production for rectification, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. The price of polyacrylamide is not strong. Due to the sufficient supply, the current price has dropped, and the price has returned in the middle of this month The price dropped by about 500 yuan / ton, and then dropped by another 100 yuan / ton in the last ten days. Moreover, some enterprises with weak strength are unable to support due to strong environmental inspection, strict requirements and high technical threshold.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, affected by the overall macroeconomic environment, the market of bulk raw materials is greatly affected by inflation and demand. In particular, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The operation threshold is constantly raised; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, and the supply side can not avoid being affected. To sum up, combined with the background of inflation, the subsequent shutdown of enterprises under environmental protection inspection may lead to the gradual tension of supply, and the price is expected to rise. However, in the case of sufficient inventory, the price of polyacrylamide is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, the production can not keep up, and perhaps the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. At present, there are some small factories in Henan Province which are not supported enough. It is suggested that the relevant manufacturers should start from the overall situation, improve the production technology level as soon as possible, and meet the requirements of environmental protection, which is the long-term plan for the survival and development of enterprises.
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